Gold Skyrockets Like It's 2011: Are We There Yet?Gold has been on a powerful run since breaking above the 2100 resistance level in March 2024. After just one year of relentless gains and a return of over 60%, it has become one of the top-performing assets. But the big question now is: how far can this rally go? To the moon?
It's difficult to predict how far prices can climb during these kinds of parabolic moves. In 2011, the final green monthly bar alone rose 17% from open to high. These FOMO-fueled surges often lead to euphoric tops followed by painful bear markets. So, are we there yet?
Since Richard Nixon ended the dollar's gold backing and introduced the modern fiat system, gold's status as a safe haven has become even more prominent. Whenever there are heightened risks, whether geopolitical, fiscal, or related to the fiat money system, investors tend to flock to gold. The 2011 rally was a clear example of this. After the 2008 financial crisis and the quantitative easing that followed, gold became the go-to asset for both preserving value and speculative opportunity.
A similar pattern has unfolded following the COVID-19 shock. The Federal Reserve returned to aggressive quantitative easing, while both the Trump and Biden administrations increased fiscal spending, including direct payments to households. This surge in money supply and concerns about fiat stability, along with rising government debt, helped trigger another major gold rally. With the added risk of a trade war, the rally has accelerated further, pushing gold beyond 3300 and creating a situation that closely mirrors 2011.
Looking at the money supply-to-gold ratio and the US federal debt-to-gold ratio, gold now appears to be testing trendline levels. Its recent surge has made metrics like M2 and federal debt seem relatively smaller, which may be a sign that the rally is approaching exhaustion.
Still, history shows that final euphoric moves can stretch even higher before a true top is formed. Rather than trying to predict the peak, it's often better to wait for signs of price stabilization. Gold typically offers a second opportunity, often forming two peaks with the second lower than the first, before entering a bear phase.
In 1980, gold fell more than 60% within two years. After the 2011 top, it declined nearly 40%. Even if the retreat expected to be milder this time, gold could still offer a 20% or greater downside opportunity once the top is in.
Smart money has already started to take profits gradually. Net managed money positions in the COT report have decreased by 40% since January, as we discussed in our earlier post:
Gold
Gold follows the trend. Buy after a pullbackGold opened sharply higher in the Asian session and hit a new record high. It broke through the 3230 mark in the late trading and stabilized. The price continued to rise in the trend and broke through the adjustment range of yesterday. There was no technical trend during the day. The large-volume rise occurred in the Asian session, and the price continued to hit a new record high. As investors turned to safe-haven assets amid the uncertainty brought by the continued tariff plan of US President Trump, additional tariffs could exacerbate the ongoing trade war and slow global economic growth.
As global stock markets bottomed, the pressure on gold finally eased, and the precious metal eventually rose sharply to a record high. This rise was very fierce because everyone rushed into the gold market, hoping to use it as a safe haven against the stagflation caused by the trade war. From a more macro perspective, gold is still in an upward trend because currency yields may continue to fall because the threshold for rate hikes remains very high.
Potential risks include another sharp sell-off in the stock market or a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. In the short term, given that gold's long positions are too concentrated, if the trade war eases, gold prices are likely to experience a deeper correction, so it is necessary to pay close attention to developments in this regard. The current environment still supports the rise of gold, but the road to gold price rise will not be smooth, and there may be a temporary correction in the middle.
Gold Asian session safe-haven directly broke through the new high, and the short-term adjustment of gold ended. Finally, the adjustment was completed in a volatile manner. This kind of strong bullish market with a breakthrough will basically not have a big decline. Since gold has chosen to break upward, it will follow the trend. Any decline in gold is an opportunity to buy.
The 1-hour moving average of gold began to turn upward. If the 1-hour moving average of gold continues to diverge upward, then the gold bulls will continue to exert their strength. After gold breaks through 3245, then gold 3245 has formed support in the short term. Buy on dips when gold falls back to 3245. After gold surges in the Asian session, you must wait patiently for the opportunity to pull back. If it falls back to around 3245, you can continue to buy.
Key points:
First support: 3253, second support: 3240, third support: 3225
First resistance: 3280, second resistance: 3300, third resistance: 3315
Operation ideas:
Buy: 3245-3248, SL: 3236, TP: 3280-3290;
Sell: 3293-3295, SL: 3304, TP: 3250-3240;
The recent investment risk is extremely high, and the real-time trend can change at any time. Please be cautious about trading signals.
GOLD Massive Short! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for GOLD is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 3304.2
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 3283.9
My Stop Loss - 3314.6
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Gold surges to a new high, market analysis and operation layoutToday, the price of gold has been rising all the way in the Asian session, reaching a high of around 3317. From the perspective of the general trend, the overall trend of gold remains bullish. The high point we see now is only a temporary high point. It is very likely that the European and American sessions will break through again in the later period, so don't blindly guess the top.
At present, the relative low point has risen by nearly 80 points, and there is a trend of further hitting new highs. Once it breaks the high again, it will continue to hit the 3330-50 line. Therefore, we still maintain the main decline in intraday trading.
If the European session maintains a small sideways fluctuation, then the US session will most likely launch an upward attack again. What needs to be focused on at the moment is the extent of the bulls' callback repair. In view of the current volatile market, a drop of tens of dollars may only be a normal adjustment of the bulls, not a trend reversal. At present, the lower support can refer to the low point of 3280, which can also be used as an important reference for European market operations. The top short-term focus is on the first-line resistance of 3330-3350, and the bottom short-term focus is on the first-line support of 3275-3280.
Bros, when you keep up with the pace of trading, you must control the risks reasonably.
Intraday gold operation suggestions
sell 3330-3340
TP 3320-3310
buy 3280-3290
TP 3310-3330
If you agree with this point of view, or you have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
OANDA:XAUUSD CAPITALCOM:GOLD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD
GOLD Is Bearish! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for GOLD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 3,290.99.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 3,179.46 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
GOLD soars over $50, heading for new ATHSpot OANDA:XAUUSD surged, with an intraday gain of more than $50, now trading around $3,281/oz to fresh all-time highs.
OANDA:XAUUSD hit a record high as the Trump administration launched investigations that could widen the trade war, boosting demand for safe-haven assets, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday. U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday launched an investigation into the need to impose tariffs on critical minerals, the latest move in the widening trade war.
According to a White House fact sheet, the executive order signed by Trump on Tuesday directs the secretary of commerce to initiate a Section 232 investigation under the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 to “assess the impact of imports of these materials on the security and resilience of the United States.”
On Wednesday, gold traders will focus on U.S. retail sales data for March, as well as speeches from Federal Reserve officials, primarily Chairman Jerome Powell.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
After gaining support from the 3,200USD price level, which is an important support for readers to pay attention to in the weekly publication, gold has skyrocketed towards the weekly target level of 3,295USD.
Currently, there is no resistance that can prevent the gold price from heading towards 3,295USD, and the uptrend is still absolutely dominant on the technical chart.
In terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index is just approaching the overbought zone and is not giving any signal of a possible correction in the short term. Therefore, in terms of momentum, gold can still continue to increase in price.
During the day, the upward trend of gold prices will be noticed again at the following positions.
Support: 3,245 – 3,223 – 3,200 USD
Resistance: 3,295 – 3,300 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3315 - 3313⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3319
→Take Profit 1 3307
↨
→Take Profit 2 3301
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3223 - 3225⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3219
→Take Profit 1 3231
↨
→Take Profit 2 3237
Gold Hits New ATH Amid Escalating US–China Tensions📌 Gold Hits New ATH Amid Escalating US–China Tensions: How Far Can It Go? 🧨📈
Gold has reached another all-time high (ATH) as geopolitical tensions between the United States and China intensify. Markets have become incredibly sensitive, reacting sharply to political rhetoric and economic policy shifts from the world’s most powerful leaders.
As investors grow increasingly uneasy, gold continues to serve its role as a safe haven — but the real question now isn't whether gold will rise, but rather: how high can it go?
🌍 Geopolitical Sensitivity at its Peak
A single tariff threat or retaliation can trigger gold to surge by $30–$50.
Conversely, a pause in policy or a diplomatic “cool down” can cause price to drop hundreds of points.
In this environment, political narratives are driving markets more than technical setups.
This is one of those rare moments where fundamentals and news flow completely overshadow traditional chart signals. Even textbook candle confirmations are losing reliability — clean bullish closures are often followed by equally strong bearish rejections.
📊 Key Levels to Watch
Support Zones:
3,280 / 3,268 / 3,258 / 3,240 / 3,230
Resistance Zones:
3,292 / 3,302 / 3,310/ 3330
⚙️ Trading Zones
🔽 Sell Zone:
Entry: 3,330 – 3,332
SL: 3,336
TP: 3,325 → 3,320 → 3,315 → 3,310 → 3,300
📈 Buy Zone #1:
Entry: 3,270 – 3,268
SL: 3,264
TP: 3,274 → 3,278 → 3,282 → 3,286 → 3,290 → 3,300
📈 Buy Zone #2:
Entry: 3,240 – 3,238
SL: 3,234
TP: 3,245 → 3,250 → 3,255 → 3,260 → 3,264 → 3,268 → 3,274 → 3,280 → OPEN
⚠️ Final Thoughts & Risk Advisory
With geopolitical tensions rising and volatility surging, trading gold requires extra caution. Avoid chasing momentum blindly — even strong confirmations can flip without warning.
This is a market driven by emotions, news headlines, and global uncertainty, not just technicals. Always stick to your trading plan, and more importantly: respect your SL/TP at all times.
💬 How are you approaching gold in this macro environment? Share your views below – are you holding long or fading the rallies? 👇👇👇
Gold starts to surge, will it fall?In the early trading of the Asian market on Wednesday, spot gold rose slightly, once rising to around $3,275. Driven by safe-haven demand, US President Trump's uncertain tariff plan made investors nervous, and the relatively weak US dollar also provided support. The price of gold rose 0.59% on Tuesday to close at $3,229.27/.
According to US media, due to little progress in negotiations, the EU expects US tariffs to continue. Next is the EU's countermeasures. As one of the major trading partners of the United States, once the EU countermeasures, risk aversion will return; it is bound to constitute a wave of positives for gold bulls. This is also the reason why gold failed to successfully form a decent decline after several downward explorations at the beginning of this week; not only the EU, but also Japan, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, etc. will continue to counterattack!
The 1-hour moving average of gold began to turn upward. If the 1-hour moving average of gold continues to diverge upward, then gold bulls will continue to exert their strength. After gold breaks through 3245, 3245 has formed support in the short term. If gold falls back to 3245 in the morning, buy on dips. The strength of the previous wave of gold in the morning is still there, so after the surge, you should wait patiently for adjustments and continue to buy. Gold fell back to around 3250 in the early Asian market, and you can continue to buy.
Since the gold bulls have broken through, then go long with the trend, just wait patiently for opportunities. The gold bulls are rising steadily, let us continue to cheer for the gold bulls.
Based on the above analysis
In the gold bull trend, consider the callback layout of long orders first in today's operation. Pay attention to the resistance of 3280-3285 US dollars on the top and the support of 3255-3250 US dollars on the bottom.
Operation strategy 1: Sell in the range: 3283--3284 SL:3295
TP: 3260--3255
Operation strategy 2: Buy in the range: 3257--3256 SL:3245
TP: 3280--3282
Gold Trades I'm taking Today 1
So this is how i'll be making my videos from now on, talking about trades i will be taking if triggered, and i update if it was a win or loss.
For this trade, I'm playing with descending triangles and waiting for a break. These patterns are my best but they are more functional on higher-timeframes. This is a 45: meaning it might work or it might not.
I'm learning to just go for it when it comes to gold because i've missed a lot of trades because i hesitated. Let's see how this one plays out..
XAUUSD H4 | Bullish ContinuationBased on the H4 chart analysis, the price could fall toward our buy entry level at 3241.69, a pullback support.
Our take profit is set at 3278.31, aligning with the 161.8% Fibo extension.
The stop loss is placed at 3185.65, below a swing low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Gold XAUUSD Possible Setup 15/04/2025🧠 Technical Analysis:
Trend Structure:
The price was following a short-term ascending channel (bullish structure).
Recently, price broke below the lower trendline, indicating a potential bearish shift.
Support Zones:
First support zone: 3210–3214
This is a minor support and could serve as the first potential bounce area.
Second support zone: 3189–3194
This is a stronger historical demand zone. Stronger bounce expected from here if the price continues falling.
Resistance Zone:
Around 3241–3245, which is the recent high and also aligns with prior resistance.
Price Action:
Bearish engulfing candles and a break below the trendline indicate bearish momentum in the short term.
Current price: ~3219. If selling pressure continues, price might retest 3210 or even 3190.
📉 Trading Signal:
✅ Buy Signal 1 – Aggressive Entry
Entry Zone: 3210–3214
SL: Below 3203
TP1: 3235
TP2: 3245
RR: ~1:2+
✅ Buy Signal 2 – Conservative Entry
Entry Zone: 3189–3194
SL: Below 3182
TP1: 3210
TP2: 3235
RR: ~1:3+
📌 Note: Wait for bullish confirmation (e.g., bullish engulfing or pin bar) near either support zone before entering.
🔄 Summary:
Price broke ascending structure = short-term bearish
Look to buy from 3210–3214 (aggressive) or 3189–3194 (conservative) on bullish confirmation.
Hit follow, like and comment.
Unpopular opinion, but I think it's time to short GoldThis melt-up is approaching resistance, and the symmetry on the chart is compelling. It could set up a great short opportunity as gold consolidates ahead of its next major move higher, likely in 2027.
However, if it breaks out of the current channel, we could be entering a true melt-up phase — and there's potential for significantly higher prices.
GOLD: Strong Bearish Sentiment! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break below the current local range around 3,221.65 will confirm the new direction downwards with the target being the next key level of 3,213.11.and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Will Gold Retest 3170 ATHs in Sight Amid Rising Global TensionsXAU/USD has decisively broken above the significant 3170 resistance level, confirming bullish momentum and signaling a potential continuation of its long-term uptrend. This breakout is not just technical—it's backed by a growing fundamental storm.
With escalating geopolitical tensions, the ongoing trade war rhetoric surrounding Trump’s tariff policies, and persistent global macro uncertainty, gold is once again asserting its role as a premier safe haven asset. These drivers are creating the perfect backdrop for further upside, possibly pushing gold toward new all-time highs.
Currently, price is in a healthy correction phase, pulling back toward the former resistance zone at 3170, which now acts as strong support. A retest and confirmation in this area may offer a high-probability long setup for trend-followers and breakout traders alike.
Gold Wave 5 Bull Complete?! (4H UPDATE)Today & yesterday's price action is the slowest movements we've seen in the market in the past few weeks, which in my eyes is a positive sign. It means Gold has either or is close enough to topping in the next week or two, after which we should see a bearish market sentiment kick in.
POI 1: $3,147📉
POI 2: $3,060📉
Markets are hugely volatile, so we need to monitor minor areas for any potential reversals or continuation of trends.
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Another great day on the charts with our levels playing out and respecting perfectly.
3201 Goldturn failed to lock below, which provided the support like we said and the bounce back into 3230.
We will now either look for a break and lock above 3230 for a continuation into the Bullish targets or we will continue to track the movement down with ema5 lock and catch the weighted level bounces inline with our plans to buy dips.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3261
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3261 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3292
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3292 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3324
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3324 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3352
BEARISH TARGETS
3230 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3230 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3201 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3201 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE
3179
3152
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3152 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3120
3094
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3094 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3069 - 3038
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Hanzo | Gold 15 min Breaks – Will Confirm the Next Move🆚 Gold
The Path of – Hanzo’s Market Strike
🔥 Key Levels & Breakout Strategy – 15M TF
Deep market insight – no random moves, only calculated execution.
☄️ Bearish After Break Out – 3212 Zone
Price must break liquidity with high volume to confirm the move.
🩸 15M Time Frame Analysis
CHoCH & Liquidity Grab
—
CHoCH & Liquidity Grab @ 3240
CHoCH & Liquidity Grab @ 3185
Strong Rejection from 3100 – The Ultimate Pivot
Strong Rejection from 3240 – The Ultimate Pivot
Strong Rejection from 3200 – The Ultimate Pivot
🔥Key Level / Equal Area
—
Key Level / Equal lows Formation - 3195
Key Level / Equal High Formation - 3245
X6 Retest Valid Key level - 3239
X6 Retest Valid Key level - 3212
👌 The Market Has Spoken – Are You Ready to Strike?
Hanzo | Gold 15 min Breaks – Will Confirm the Next Move
Hanzo | Gold 15 min Breaks – Will Confirm the Next Move🆚 Gold
The Path of – Hanzo’s Market Strike
🔥 Key Levels & Breakout Strategy – 15M TF
Deep market insight – no random moves, only calculated execution.
☄️ Bullish After Break Out – 3239 Zone
Price must break liquidity with high volume to confirm the move.
☄️ Bearish After Break Out – 3216 Zone
Price must break liquidity with high volume to confirm the move.
🩸 15M Time Frame Analysis
CHoCH & Liquidity Grab
—
CHoCH & Liquidity Grab @ 3240
CHoCH & Liquidity Grab @ 3185
Strong Rejection from 3100 – The Ultimate Pivot
Strong Rejection from 3240 – The Ultimate Pivot
Strong Rejection from 3200 – The Ultimate Pivot
🔥Key Level / Equal Area
—
Key Level / Equal lows Formation - 3195
Key Level / Equal High Formation - 3245
X6 Retest Valid Key level - 3239
X6 Retest Valid Key level - 3212
👌 The Market Has Spoken – Are You Ready to Strike?