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Analysis of the latest gold trend on May 16: 1. Core driving factors of fundamentals Weak US economic data strengthens expectations of interest rate cuts PPI and retail sales data fell beyond expectations: US PPI fell 0.5% month-on-month in April (expected +0.2%), retail sales growth dropped sharply from 1.7% in March to 0.1%, and manufacturing output fell 0.4%, indicating that the pressure of economic slowdown has intensified. This data directly led to a sharp drop in US Treasury yields (10-year yields fell 11 basis points to 4.435%), and market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts increased (the probability of a rate cut in September is expected to rise to 75.4%). Weak US dollar: The US dollar index fell 0.2% to 100.82, and the real interest rate (TIPS yield) fell below 1.8%, providing pricing support for gold. Geopolitical risks escalate Russia-Ukraine peace talks are deadlocked: Putin refused to attend the Turkey talks and only sent a low-level delegation. Ukrainian President Zelensky called this move "disrespectful". Market expectations for the progress of the peace agreement have cooled significantly, and safe-haven demand has surged. Uncertainty in the Middle East: There are still differences in the Iran nuclear agreement negotiations. Although Trump said it was "close to being reached", internal news in Iran showed that key issues have not been resolved and the risk of geopolitical conflict continues. Trade situation and long-term support factors The pressure of easing tariffs between China and the United States has been exhausted: Although the China-US tariff agreement has eased trade frictions in the short term, the market's focus has shifted to economic data and subsequent policy impacts. In the long run, global central banks continue to buy gold (more than 1,000 tons of gold in 2024), stagflation risks (high inflation and low growth coexist) and weakening US dollar credit still support gold. 2. Key technical points Support level: Short-term: US$3205-3210 (psychological barrier and 4-hour Bollinger band middle track). Medium term: $3160 (trend line support and 60-day moving average). Resistance level: Above: $3260-3270 (high pressure zone 4 hours ago). Long-term target: $3330-3350 (gap filling and historical high range). Technical signal: Daily MACD bottom divergence, RSI rebounded from the oversold area, indicating strong short-term rebound momentum. If it breaks through the $3260 resistance, it may start a new round of rise; if it falls below $3200, it may fall back to the $3160 support. 3. Optimal trading strategy Short-term operation (intraday to intraweek) Long opportunity: Entry conditions: Gold price pulls back to the $3205-3210 range to stabilize, or the US dollar index does not break through the 100.50 resistance. Target: $3260-3280, stop loss set below 3180. Short opportunities: Entry conditions: Gold price rebounds to 3260-3280 range and encounters resistance, or the US dollar index stabilizes at 101. Target: 3220-3200 US dollars, stop loss set above 3290. Medium-term strategy (monthly level) Bullish logic: Central bank gold demand, stagflation risk and normalization of geopolitical conflicts support long-term upward trend. Entry time: If gold price falls back to 3160-3180 area without breaking, long positions can be opened in batches, stop loss 3130, target 3330-3350 US dollars. Risk control points Strict stop loss: short-term stop loss does not exceed 2% of the total position, medium-term stop loss does not exceed 5%. Event avoidance: Pay attention to today's Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and import price data in the United States, and reduce positions before the data is released. IV. Summary and risk warning Core contradiction: Short-term economic data and geopolitical risks dominate fluctuations, and medium- and long-term structural benefits remain unchanged. Potential risks: Policy changes: If the Fed releases hawkish signals or Russia-Ukraine negotiations make unexpected progress, it may trigger a sharp correction. Technical overbought repair: Gold has risen too much in the short term, so we need to be wary of profit-taking pressure. Operation principles: light positions, strict stop losses, and give priority to the breakthrough direction of the 3200-3260 US dollar range, and follow the trend.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Golden_Line_FX
GOLD DAILY CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, This daily chart idea played out exactly as analysed. The channel top provided strong resistance, with EMA5 failing to cross and lock outside the channel confirming the rejection. Price then moved down to the channel half line, which, as we anticipated, held firmly as support and delivered the expected bounce. This move aligned perfectly with our plan to buy dips, demonstrating once again the precision of the Goldturn channel methodology. This is the beauty of our Goldturn channels, drawn using weighted averages instead of pure price action. This unique approach helps us clearly identify fake-outs and real breakouts, cutting out much of the noise that usually confuses traders. We will now come back Sunday with our updated Multi time-frame analysis, Gold route map and trading plans for the week ahead. Have a smashing weekend!! And once again, thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
7
PATIENCE PAYS 〉BEARS TRAPPED - HODL TO $4,000As illustrated, Im trying to visualize the beginning of the next impulse toward $4,000 This is an intraday - swing trade opportunity to 1H highs; however, it would be just the first move toward a longer term path to ATH above $3,500 Ride this wave as you can, but know that the yellow metal still has a lot of strength and power to continue growing. June might still behave strangely as it is a consolidation month on average 5-10-15 years; however, It wouldn't surprise me if market structure holds important support prices instead of ranging back below $3,200 - $3,150 ; in other words, that range might be strong longterm support. -- GOOD LUCK! SECURE PROFITS. persaxu
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by PersaGold
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-16 : Gap Potential PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY will attempt to GAP at the open. The current price structure suggests the SPY/QQQ are in an upward FLAGGING formation related to a broad Excess Phase Peak pattern. I believe this upward trend will continue until price attempts to break either the upper previous Ultimate High pattern or break the lower channel of the current FLAGGING formation. The wonderful thing about these Excess Phase Peak patterns, and other techniques I'm trying to teach you, is that they provide very clear triggers/directions/opportunities for traders who understand these patterns. Today, I highlight my SPY Bias (Primary & Secondary) trending system that shows the SPY is much weaker than many people believe. Because of this, I believe we are potentially nearing an Exhaustion Peak in the SPY/QQQ - time will tell. The use of my extended Biasing systems and Custom Index charts helps me understand what is taking place behind the SPY/QQQ price action. It's like peaking behind the curtains in terms of what my Custom Indexes and other specialized data can provide. I can see what is really taking place related to price action - moving beyond the simple SPY/QQQ charts. Gold and Silver appear to be setting up an Inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern off a potential Ultimate Low in price. It will be interesting to see how this downward price flag plays out over the next week+. If this pattern holds, we should see the FLAG end and price should rally up into the consolidation phase. Very exciting for metals. Bitcoin, which tends to lead the SPY/QQQ, is stalling near a peak. Keep your eyes on BTCUSD over the weekend as I believe we may be able to identify how the SPY/QQQ will react on Monday by watching what BTCUSD does. Thanks for being patient and understanding my schedule over the past 30+ days. I've had multiple family member visit the hospital over the past 5-6+ weeks and my world has been filled with doctors, hospitals, follow-ups, work, and trying to keep everyone healthy and away from trouble. It appears these issues are starting to get more settled - which means I'll be able to stay more focused on work - instead of driving around everywhere and waiting for appointments. Get some.. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
Gold can correct to support line of channel and then start growHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. In this chart, we can see how the price, after forming a triangle structure and breaking out to the upside, Gold entered a downward channel, where it has been consistently respecting both the resistance and support lines. Each bounce from the lower boundary of this channel signals local buyer interest, especially near the support level around 3060, which also overlaps with the buyer zone. Recently, the price rebounded from this support line, indicating a potential start of a bullish correction inside the channel. This move is consistent with past price behavior, strong impulses from the bottom boundary followed by gradual movement toward the upper resistance line. Given the structure and the ongoing bounce, I expect Gold can correct the support line of the channel, after which it turns around and starts to grow to the 3290 resistance level, which aligns with the upper boundary of the pattern and the beginning of the seller zone. That’s why my TP 1 is set at 3290 points - a reasonable technical target within the current channel formation. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀 Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by LegionQ8
1
Long orders are trapped,what should we do with the US gold marke🗞News side: 1. India considers using new Indus River project to cut water supply to Pakistan. 2. Pay attention to the news of Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations today 📈Technical aspects: Gold once fell to around 3170, which is in line with our judgment of bullish weakness. This is why we are not in a hurry to participate in long orders today. I know that many bros also listened to the outside world and went long around 3200, which led to being trapped. At present, the gold price is constantly testing the 3170 support line. If it falls below, it will look to the 3150 support line. If it does not break, it will be treated as a shock. On the top, temporarily pay attention to the 3205-3215 line of resistance. If it encounters resistance and pressure, go short. On the bottom, first pay attention to the 3170 support line, and then pay attention to the 3150-3140 support line. Hold if it breaks. If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices. OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AllenBoswell
Will the Market Continue to Sink or Rebound?Gold Price Volatility: Will the Market Continue to Sink or Rebound? 💥 Market Outlook: Today’s market is seeing unpredictable movements, with gold making significant drops and then rebounding sharply in the last two days. Are the recent news developments aligning with the price action, or is it just a major coincidence? 🔍 Technical Analysis: Looking at the D1 and H4 charts, you can clearly see the breakdown, but gold quickly bounced back to the 325x area and reacted. The 3254–3256 zone is a key level that holds strong for sellers on both daily and H4 candles. If gold continues to hold below this level, the bearish trend remains strong, and another sharp drop could happen before the weekend. If the 3254–3256 level is broken, the price may push toward the 327x, possibly even the 328x levels. However, this will be dependent on whether this critical support is maintained. Trend Continuation or Reversal? From a technical perspective, gold is still in a downtrend, and the current bounce is likely just a retracement before continuing lower. However, in terms of macro news, the USD is continuously dealing with bad inflation data, affecting the recovery of DXY (USD). The market is very sensitive to trap candles, and there may be false breakouts, so proceed cautiously. There are also some news reports indicating that the US and China have reached a minor détente, but tensions remain around trade restrictions, imports, exports, and the use of rare earth minerals. Things are unpredictable with these two powers. Today, there are updates on tariffs, so keep an eye out! 📊 Key Resistance Levels: 3237 3251 3261 3276 3287 📉 Key Support Levels: 3205 3188 3170 3143 🎯 Trading Plan: 🔵 BUY SCALP: Entry: 3172 – 3170 SL: 3166 TP: 3176 → 3180 → 3184 → 3188 → 3192 → 3196 → 3200 🔵 BUY ZONE: Entry: 3142 – 3140 SL: 3136 TP: 3146 → 3150 → 3154 → 3158 → 3162 → 3170 → 3180 → 3190 🔴 SELL SCALP: Entry: 3160 – 3162 SL: 3166 TP: 3156 → 3152 → 3148 → 3144 → 3140 → 3130 → 3120 🔴 SELL ZONE: Entry: 3276 – 3278 SL: 3282 TP: 3272 → 3268 → 3264 → 3260 → 3255 → 3250 → 3240 ⚠️ Risk Management: With strong volatility today, manage your risk carefully. It’s essential to adhere to your TP/SL to protect your account. Stay cautious, as there is a lot of unpredictability in the market with the upcoming news. Conclusion: Given the unpredictability of the market and geopolitical tensions, it’s wise to trade with caution today. Watch the critical support and resistance levels closely and stay flexible, adapting your strategy based on how the market evolves. 📣 Stay tuned for more updates and trade smart!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
3
DeGRAM | GOLD reached the lower boundary of the channel📊 Technical Analysis ● Price twice tagged the channel base (LBs) and printed a bullish engulfing, showing demand at 3 100; RSI divergence adds reversal weight. ● A reclaim of the inner blue trend-line sets a break-retest pattern; clearing 3 200 exposes the mid-band / prior LH near 3 350. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● US CPI eased to 0.2 % m/m and Fed funds futures pulled the first-cut odds forward to September, slipping real yields and the USD. ● China added gold for a 19-month streak in April, while Middle-East tensions revived safe-haven bids. ✨ Summary Channel-floor double bottom + softer US data and ongoing official buying favour longs: accumulate > 3 150, objectives 3 200 → 3 350; exit on a close below 3 100. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by DeGRAM
2
GOLD Will Grow! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 3,202.52. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 3,258.41 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by SignalProvider
1
Gold - New ATH in the making?Overall Market Context This daily timeframe chart of Gold (XAU/USD) reflects a textbook example of a bullish retracement within a broader upward trend. The price has recently pulled back after printing a significant swing high, which is currently the all-time high (ATH). This retracement brings Gold into a high-probability reversal zone, aligning several technical elements that point toward potential bullish continuation. Retracement Into A Confluence Zone Price has retraced into a key technical area defined by the Fibonacci golden pocket (0.618–0.65) and a Fair Value Gap (FVG). The golden pocket is widely regarded as one of the most reactive retracement levels in Fibonacci analysis, where institutional participants often enter or scale into positions. The addition of an FVG overlapping this zone strengthens its importance. An FVG is typically created by an aggressive move that leaves behind inefficient price action or unmitigated imbalances, and in this case, it represents an area where demand previously overwhelmed supply. The combination of the golden pocket and FVG creates a strong demand zone, from which a bullish reaction is expected if the overall macro sentiment remains supportive. Bullish Reaction And Confirmation Price wicked slightly below the FVG, likely triggering liquidity stops resting beneath prior swing lows before showing signs of a strong bounce. This type of price action—known as a liquidity grab or "spring"—is often a precursor to significant reversals when it aligns with higher timeframe bullish order flow. The current bounce from this zone suggests that smart money may have accumulated long positions here. If price continues to hold above this zone, it confirms a successful defense of this key area and increases the probability of bullish continuation. The market is showing signs of shifting from a retracement phase back into an impulsive phase. Break Of Structure And Targeting Buy-Side Liquidity The next key area of interest is the buy-side liquidity resting above the most recent swing high, labeled as the "BSL" (Buy-Side Liquidity). If price breaches this level, it will confirm a break of market structure to the upside and signal a continuation of the overall bullish trend. Such a break would invalidate the idea of deeper retracement and instead align with an impulsive leg that could target the previous ATH—and potentially exceed it. This makes the current zone a critical pivot point in determining whether gold resumes its long-term bullish trajectory. New All-Time High Scenario Should the BSL be breached and momentum maintained, price is likely to head toward printing a new all-time high. From a psychological and technical standpoint, the break of an ATH often leads to price discovery, where resistance is minimal, and price action becomes more volatile and parabolic. Traders and institutions monitoring historical highs often front-run such moves or aggressively participate once confirmed, driving increased volume and volatility. This behavior can lead to rapid upside extension, especially when supported by macroeconomic narratives such as inflation hedging, geopolitical tensions, or declining real yields—all traditionally bullish catalysts for gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Louigi_24
60
GOLD Sellers In Panic! BUY! My dear subscribers, This is my opinion on the GOLD next move: The instrument tests an important psychological level 3209.1 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 3224.3 My Stop Loss - 3201.4 About Used Indicators: On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AnabelSignals
1
Global gold rises over 1% as the US dollar and US economic data Global gold OANDA:XAUUSD rises over 1% as the US dollar and US economic data weaken Gold prices rose more than 1% on Thursday (May 15), supported by a weaker US dollar and weak US economic data, while Russian President Vladimir Putin’s absence from peace talks prompted some safe-haven buying. At the close of trading on May 15, spot gold $TVC:XAU-AMEX:USD contracts gained 1.2% to $3,226.6 per ounce, after touching a more than one-month low earlier in the session. Gold FX:XAUUSD futures advanced nearly 1% to $3,218.70 per ounce. The US dollar index fell 0.1%, making gold, which is priced in the greenback, less expensive for holders of other currencies. Data showed that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly declined in April, while retail sales growth slowed. Earlier this week, a report showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose less than forecast in April. The market is pricing in the expectation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in September. Lower interest rates boost gold’s appeal as it is a non-yielding asset. Thursday’s data added to the chances of a Fed rate cut, with more dovish expectations forming in the market.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
Hanzo | Gold 15 min : Bullish Break– Next Move is confirmed 🔥 GOLD – 15 Min Scalping Analysis (Bearish Setup) Bias: Waiting For Break Out Time Frame: 15 Min Entry Type: Confirmed Entry After Break Out Bullish After Break Out : 3208 Break Out Done 🩸 Key Reasons for Entry: ☄️Strong bullish reaction from a refined demand zone. ☄️Entry based on Smart Money Concepts: Break of structure + order block confirmation. ☄️Confluence with higher time frame support or key level. ☄️Bullish engulfing / displacement candle shows clear intent. ☄️Market in premium-to-discount transition zone.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Path_Of_Hanzo
1
Gold Slides Toward $3,220Gold fell to approximately $3,220 per ounce, on track for a weekly loss of more than 3% as appetite for the precious metal diminished with easing global trade tensions. The 90-day tariff truce between the U.S. and China reduced fears of a drawn-out trade war, while geopolitical concerns also eased with a stable India-Pakistan ceasefire. Talks between Russia and Ukraine are losing momentum. Although soft U.S. inflation data has reinforced expectations for at least two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, Fed Chair Powell cautioned that future inflation may be volatile due to persistent supply shocks. Key support is located at $3,120, followed by $3,030 and $2,956. Resistance levels are seen at $3,250, then $3,300 and $3,350.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD
by ChartMage
Gold is under pressure as the US dollar strengthensGold $TVC:XAU-AMEX:USD is under pressure as the US dollar strengthens and trade optimism spreads across the market. Prices slipped slightly early Wednesday as investors took profits after a rise from last week’s lows. Although US inflation came in lower than expected, the Fed’s lack of plans to cut interest rates anytime soon keeps gold OANDA:XAUUSD from gaining momentum. At the same time, optimism about new trade agreements between the US, China, the UK, and other countries, along with hopes for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, are reducing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Technically, the overall trend looks bearish. There’s no significant rebound from the support zone, indicating that selling pressure still dominates. Currently, prices are consolidating sideways before potentially testing the 3200 level. Key resistance levels are at 3243, 3257, and 3269, while support is concentrated around 3222 and 3200. If prices continue to fluctuate within the current range and test the 3222-3200 support zone, the downtrend is likely to persist in the short to medium term. However, it’s important to note that the market may create short-term “short squeezes” around resistance zones to challenge traders before prices fall further. Wishing everyone successful and effective trading!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
XAUUSD remains bearish unless it breaks 3265🗞News side: 1. India considers using new Indus River project to cut water supply to Pakistan. 2. Pay attention to the news of Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations today 📈Technical aspects: Today's opening correction is due to technical repair and adjustment, which is why I shorted. The support of 3200-3210 is of great significance to the short-term trend. If it can be supported here again, it may further promote the upward expansion space. However, after the rebound in the morning Asian session, it did not break through the 3265 line. On the contrary, the bulls began to weaken. Today is Friday, and the market is not expected to show a unilateral strong attitude. It will be treated as a shock during the day. Before breaking through 3265 above, we can short at a small level during the intraday rebound. Short-term operation suggestions, temporarily look at 3235-3240 on the upper side, and look at the support of 3210-3200 on the lower side. If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices. FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AllenBoswell