XAUUSD 30/12/24Our final gold markup before 2025 arrives and we transition into a new trading year! As expected, the Christmas period brought low trading volume, which leads us to review the setups from last week. With the New Year approaching quickly, we anticipate volume will remain low until 2025. Here’s last week’s text for additional context.
XAUUSD Analysis
Last week, we began with a bullish bias, but our outlook quickly shifted to bearish by Monday's close. This shift led to the significant downside movement observed during the latter half of the week, driven by fundamentals. We saw a substantial run targeting the lower levels, which brings us to today’s bias, which remains bearish.
Currently, we are focused on the three liquidity lows as our primary targets. As always, we look to the highs within the range to provide optimal entries for these targets. At the moment, there is a high in the middle of the range, but we are prioritizing the higher, more favorable highs for potential short positions. If an entry aligns with our plan, this could lead to the final sell-off of the week before the New Year approaches.
Trade safe and stick to your plan.
Gold
Gold conquering the $3,000/ounce mark is possible.China and India, the world’s two largest gold consumers, are also facing domestic challenges that could dampen demand for the precious metal. In China, a weaker yuan and a sluggish recovery from the pandemic have made gold less attractive. India, the number two gold market, is also facing similar challenges, with a recent currency devaluation eroding its purchasing power, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive domestically. That’s particularly worrying because India accounts for more than 25% of global jewelry demand.
Recently, the news that US President Joe Biden proposed to increase arms aid to Ukraine caused gold prices to surge due to safe-haven demand. However, immediately after that, gold prices were under pressure to decrease as the market waited for signals from the new economic policies of the administration of President-elect Donald Trump and the interest rate decision from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
The world gold price has increased by about 28% since the beginning of the year, reaching a peak of 2,790 USD/ounce at the end of October. This precious metal is still considered an effective risk hedging tool, especially in the context of escalating geopolitical tensions. However, gold becomes less attractive in a high interest rate environment.
USD is recovering because of hawkish policiesLast week, the global gold market had a quiet trading week, with prices capped at $2,650/ounce. This week, gold prices are also expected to remain flat due to the tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and pressure from the recovery of bond yields and the greenback.
Speaking about gold's movements in 2025, City Index market analyst Fawad Razaqzada said that although the US dollar and higher bond yields could negatively impact gold, there are still some supporting factors that could help the precious metal reach $3,000/ounce.
The expert explained that amid persistent inflation concerns, the US Central Bank is expected to be more cautious in its interest rate decisions next year. This is likely to support bond yields and the US dollar, two factors that often reduce the appeal of gold.
Higher bond yields have a significant impact on investment demand for the yellow metal, as they increase the opportunity cost of holding these non-yielding assets. “At the same time, the greenback’s resilience, supported by hawkish central bank policies and strong economic data, makes gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. These dynamics could limit gold’s upside potential in the first half of next year.”
🔥 XAUUSD SELL 2625 - 2628🔥
💵 TP1: 2620
💵 TP2: 2610
💵 TP3: OPEN
🚫 SL: 2637
Weekly Forex Forecast: Last Show For 2024Dec 30th to Jan 3rd.
USD is still strong, and so are the indices. I will be looking for buys until there is a significant bearish Break of Structure.
A strong USD is a headwind for Gold, Silver and the other metals. It is also a headwind for GBP, EUR and the other majors. USDCHF, USDCAD and USDJPY should see some upside.
Thank you for hangin' with me for 2024! I hope you found a benefit in my weekly forecasts this year. 2025 will be even better!
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
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Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Gold Price Action Final Analysis of the Year:
As I wrap up my analysis for the year, here’s my take on the gold market. Gold initially made a Rally-Base-Rally (RBR) move 📈 but failed to create a new rally, shifting into a Rally-Base-Drop (RBD) pattern. This has transitioned into a Drop-Base-Drop (DBD) phase 📉, indicating a high probability that gold will drop further from the current base zone (entry point).
Always remember to manage your risk ⚖️ carefully.
Wishing you all the best in your trading and a Happy New Year! 🎉
Bearish drop off overlap resistance?XAU/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 2,632.65
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Stop loss: 2,655.19
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 2,593.01
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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GOLD IN CORRECTION FOR SELLOnly weekly is in buy but it give sub choch for sell which is day sell CHOCH
in day retracement also gives day sub choch for sell
now gold in day sub choch retracement confirm point strgy
if above 2608 it will continue to 2650-2660 which is day sub choch 50% fibo zone then
if we got 4hrs revers sell point on there we can place sell order on there other wise we must wait 2717-2725 extreme sell area(day sub choch OB) then we place aggressive entry on there
if market opens below 2608 our buy entry should be 2587 sl 2580 and sell analysis will be same
week=BUY
Day= sell and Retracement buy
4hrs-15mins-1min=buy
THIS ANALYSIS MAY CHANGE AFTER MARKET OPENS
HelenP. I Gold can break support level and fall to trend lineHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. Some time ago, the price broke the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone, and rose to 2720 points, after which it made a strong impulse down to the support level, breaking the resistance level. Next, the price turned around from the 2610 level and started to grow, and when it almost reached the resistance level, Gold made a correction to the support level. After this, the price turned around and in a short time rose to the resistance level, broke, and later rose to the trend line. Then the price turned around and started to decline, so, in a short time it fell to the 2675 resistance level, broke it, and continued to fall next. Gold declined to the support level and even broke it and fell lower even support zone. But soon it turned around and rose to the trend line, after which it broke this line and continued to move up. Recently XAU dropped to the support level and now trades close to it. For this case, I expect that XAUUSD will make a small move up and then continue to decline to the trend line, breaking the support level. That's why I set my goal at 2575 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 2639 and a gap below at 2617. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2639
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2639 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2666
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2666 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2691
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2691 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2719
BEARISH TARGETS
2617
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2617 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2593
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2593 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2570 - 2551
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing ema5 and price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 2629 and a gap below at 2600. We need ema5 to cross and lock above or below the weighted Goldturns to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
2629
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2629 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2655
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2655 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2694
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2694 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
2726
BEARISH TARGETS
2600
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2600 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
2561
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2561 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
2519 - 2486
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD DAILY CHART MID/LONG TERM UPDATEHey Everyone,
Please see the daily chart update we have been trading and tracking for a while now, to give you all an overall view of the range.
We are still seeing price play in the retracement range and expect this range to provide support with the lowest in the range we can see 2560 and support above this level should provide bounces to chase targets above.
We now also have a body close above 2629 opening 2686 gap and will need ema5 lock to further confirm this.
We will use our smaller timeframe analysis on the 1H and 4H chart to buy dips from the weighted Goldturns for 30 to 40 pips clean. Ranging markets are perfectly suited for this type of trading, instead of trying to hold longer positions and getting chopped up in the swings up and down in the range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up using our smaller timeframe ideas.
Our long term bias is Bullish and therefore we look forward to drops like this, which allows us to continue to use our smaller timeframes to buy dips using our levels and setups.
Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings rather then chasing the bull from the top.
Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD MONTHLY CHART LONG TERM/RANGE ROUTE MAPHey Everyone,
Please see update on our monthly chart idea for our long term/range analysis.
Beginning of the month we stated that this month also started with a detachment to ema5 below for a correction, which was also highlighted with a small mini circle on the chart for visual purpose.
- This detachment to ema5 was completed perfectly.
We also stated that the area above 2589 is a strong level of support with ema5 providing dynamic support now for a bounce.
- This also played out perfectly with ema5 providing dynamic support and above our 2589 support level for the push up, perfectly hitting our axis target 2702.
We now have two days for month end and will need a body close above 2702 for confirmation for a further continuation or a body close below 2589 to confirm the channel top test below.
However, if price closes this month in this range without the body closes, then we are likely to see play between this range for another month with not much detachment on the next monthly candle to ema5, which means the likely dynamic support should be provided by ema5 from the beginning of the month.
We will continue to use all support structures, across all our multi time frame chart ideas to buy dips also keeping in mind our long term gaps above. Short term we may look bearish but looking at the monthly chart allows us to see the bigger picture and the overall long term Bullish trend.
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
I recommend buying at the current price with a stop-loss order Analysis:
The current price of gold is hovering around 2615.980 USD. A closer look at the 4-hour chart reveals a few key observations:
Price Action: The price has been consolidating within a defined range for the past few days. The yellow line indicates my predicted future price move.
Support and Resistance: I have identified several significant support and resistance levels on the chart. These levels have acted as areas of price congestion in the past and are likely to continue to influence price movement.
Moving Average: The 50-period SMA (Simple Moving Average) is currently providing support to the price.
Prediction:
I think the price of gold is likely to remain within the current range in the near term. A break above the upper resistance level could signal a bullish breakout, while a break below the lower support level could indicate a bearish move. However, I think the price is more likely to move upwards, as indicated by the yellow line.
Next Steps:
I will continue to monitor the price action of gold closely and adjust my analysis as needed. I will also be paying close attention to any news or events that could impact the price of gold.
Recommendation:
For traders looking to capitalize on a potential upward move in the price of gold, I recommend buying at the current price with a stop-loss order placed below the lower support level. For those who are risk-averse, I recommend waiting for a clear breakout above the upper resistance level before entering a long position.
GOLD - 2025 Forecast - Technical Analysis & Trading Ideas! 2025 forecast:
While the price is above the support 2475.27, resumption of uptrend is expected.
We make sure when the resistance at 2789.95 breaks.
If the support at 2475.27 is broken, the short-term forecast -resumption of uptrend- will be invalid.
Technical analysis:
A peak is formed in daily chart at 2726.10 on 12/12/2024, so more losses to support(s) 2582.31, 2527.50 and minimum to Major Support (2475.27) is expected.
Trading suggestion:
There is possibility of temporary retracement to suggested Trend Hunter Buy Zone (2527.50 to 2475.27). We wait during the retracement, until the price tests the zone, whether approaching, touching or entering the zone.
We would set buy orders based on Daily-Trading-Opportunities and expect to reach short-term targets.
Beginning of entry zone (2527.50)
Ending of entry zone (2475.27)
Take Profits:
2582.31
2644.20
2721.30
2789.95
2850.00
2900.00
2950.00
3000.00
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How to Identify a Bearish Reversal in Gold Trading
In this article, I will explain to you 4 efficient strategies to identify a bearish reversal with technical analysis in Gold trading.
You will learn price action, SMC and technical indicator strong bearish signals.
First, let me remind you that different bearish signals may indicate a different magnitude and a degree of a potential reversal.
While some signals will be reliable for predicting short term reversals, some will be more accurate in projecting long-term ones.
One more thing to note is that one of the best time frames for bearish reversal confirmations on Gold is the daily . So, all the cases that will be explained will be on a daily time frame strictly.
XAUUSD Bearish Reversal Signal 1 - Bearish Price Action Pattern.
One of the perfect indicators of the overbought state of a bullish trend on Gold is bearish price action patterns.
I am talking about classic horizontal neckline based patterns like head & shoulders, inverted cup & handle, double/triple top and descending triangle.
Typically, these patterns leave early bearish clues and help to predict a coming downturn movement.
A strong bearish signal is a breakout of a horizontal neckline of the pattern and a candle close below.
The price may continue falling at least to the next key support then.
Above is the example of a head and shoulders pattern on Gold, on a daily. Its formation was the evidence of the overheated market. Bearish breakout of its neckline confirmed that, and the price continued falling.
Bearish Reversal Signal 2 - Rising Channel Breakout.
When the market is trading in a healthy bullish trend, it usually starts moving with the boundaries of a rising channel.
It can be the expanding, parallel or contracting channel.
Its support will represent a strong vertical structure, from where new bullish waves will initiate after corrections.
Its breakout will quite accurately indicate a change of a market sentiment and a highly probable bearish reversal.
Look at this rising parallel channel on Gold chart on a daily. The market was respecting its boundaries for more than 3 months.
A bearish violation of its support was an accurate bearish signal that triggered a strong bearish movement.
Bearish Reversal Signal 3 - Change of Character & Bearish Price Action.
One of the main characteristics of a bullish trend is the tendency of the market to set new higher highs and higher lows. Each final high of each bullish impulse is always higher than the previous. Each final low of each bearish movement is also higher than the previous.
In such a price action, the level of the last higher low is a very significant point.
The violation of that and a formation of a new low is an important event that is called Change of Character CHoCH.
It signifies the violation of a current bullish trend.
After that, one should pay attention to a consequent price action, because CHoCH can easily turn into just an extended correctional movement.
If the market sets a lower high and a new lower low then, it will confirm the start of a new bearish trend.
That is the example of a confirmed Change of Character on Gold on a daily. To validate the start of a new bearish trend, we should let the price set a lower high and a form a bearish impulse with a new lower low.
Bearish Reversal Signal 4 - Death Cross.
Death cross is a strong long-term bearish reversal signal that is based on a crossover of 2 moving averages.
On a daily time frame, it is usually based on a combination of 2 Simple Moving Averages: one with 50 length and one with 200 length.
The signal is considered to be confirmed when a 50 length SMA crosses below 200 length SMA.
It is commonly believed that it signifies that the market enters a long-term bearish trend.
On the chart, I plotted 2 Moving Averages. When the blue one crosses below the orange one, a global bearish trend on Gold will be confirmed
The 4 bearish signals that we discussed will be useful for predicting short term, mid term and long term bearish reversals on Gold.
While price action patterns will indicate local bearish movements, Death Cross will confirm a global trend change.
Learn to recognize all the signals that we discussed to make more accurate trading and investing decisions.
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