Gold XAUUSD Possible Move 06.02.2025Market Analysis: Incomplete Head and Shoulders Pattern with Breakout & Retest Strategy
Pattern Identified:
The chart presents an incomplete Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, which suggests a potential reversal or continuation depending on price action at key levels. The neckline of the pattern aligns with the green support zone.
Key Levels:
Resistance Zone (Red Area - ~2,872): Price has tested this zone multiple times, making it a key level for a breakout.
Support Zone (Green Areas - ~2,860 and ~2,844): These zones act as crucial demand areas, where price could either bounce or break lower.
Possible Trade Scenarios:
Bullish Breakout:
If price breaks above the red resistance (~2,872) and successfully retests it as support, this would confirm a bullish continuation.
Entry Signal: Buy after a confirmed retest with bullish momentum.
Target: Next resistance levels around 2,884 - 2,890.
Stop-Loss: Below the previous structure (~2,864).
Bearish Breakdown:
If price fails at resistance and breaks below the green support (~2,860), a bearish move is likely.
Entry Signal: Sell after a successful retest of the broken support (~2,860) as new resistance.
Target: Lower support zone around 2,844.
Stop-Loss: Above the broken level (~2,868).
Neutral Range-Bound Scenario:
If price remains trapped between 2,860 and 2,872, traders should wait for a breakout before entering trades.
Trade Signal (Based on Breakout Confirmation)
Buy Signal: If price breaks and retests above 2,872, enter long with a target of 2,884+.
Sell Signal: If price breaks and retests below 2,860, enter short with a target of 2,844.
This strategy ensures safe trading by waiting for confirmation before taking positions.
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Gold
Gold reaches new highs every day, buy after stabilizationThere is no need to analyze the technical aspects too much. If it is strong and sideways, just buy directly. Once the correction is too deep and the stop loss is hit, continue to buy at low levels. The direction is more important than the position. The daily line has been rising continuously. Since mid-December 2024, gold has been like a wild horse running away. The gold price is completely out of control. There is no guessing the top of gold. Today's NY market continues to be bullish. There is no highest, only higher. The next target of 2900 and 3000 is no longer a dream.
In the short term, pay attention to the 2830-2840 area, which has become a new strong support. The bullish trend will be maintained in the short term. The idea is to continue to be bullish if it retraces close to the support band. If the retracement is limited, then look for opportunities to buy after the hourly line adjusts and retraces. If it stops falling and stabilizes, it is an opportunity to enter the market to buy. Use support as a defensive position to arrange a buying strategy. Currently, it touched the 2848 line in 1 hour and stopped falling slightly. Then pay attention to buying near 2848, including buying directly near the current price of 2856 and lower prices, with a stop loss below 2848. If the SL is hit, continue to buy at a lower price. The most worrying thing at the moment is missing the buying opportunity.
INTRA DAY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE OF XAUUSDSupport Zone
2854-2859
Pivot
2854.00
CURRENT TREND
Long positions above 2854.00 with targets at 2879.00 & 2890.00 in extension.
BREAKOUT
Below 2854.00 look for further downside with 2840.00 & 2830.00 as targets.
The next resistances are at 2879.00 and then at 2894.00.
Supports and resistances
2900.00
2890.00
2879.00
2867.09
2854.00
2840.00
2830.00
Gold’s Price Action: New Highs or Correction Ahead?Yesterday, gold reached yet another all-time high, slightly above 2,880.
However, the price quickly dropped by 200 pips, finding support at 2,660.
Since then, gold has been consolidating, but a correction appears to be looming.
In the posted 30-minute chart, we can see a small head-and-shoulders pattern forming.
A break below the newly established support and the neckline of the pattern could lead to a further drop to 2,640.
Although trading at this stage is extremely risky, I believe gold is more likely to correct at this point rather than make a new ATH.
Trade Idea - Sell Limit Trade Idea for XAUUSD
Bias: Short Position
Technical Analysis:
1. Daily Chart:
• XAUUSD is in an extended uptrend and nearing overbought conditions with RSI at 74.98, signaling a possible pullback.
• MACD is still bullish but reaching a peak.
• A rejection near 2865-2875 suggests a strong resistance zone.
2. 15-Min Chart:
• Recent momentum is slowing down.
• RSI is at 47.65, indicating a neutral zone, with possible room for a move downward.
• MACD is weakly bullish but not showing strong continuation.
3. 3-Min Chart:
• Clear lower highs forming.
• RSI is at 40.51, approaching bearish territory.
• MACD is negative, showing short-term selling pressure.
Fundamental Analysis:
• Gold has rallied significantly, but a correction is likely as traders take profits.
• US Dollar Strength: If any upcoming economic data favors USD, gold may decline.
• Interest Rate Expectations: No immediate dovish signals, keeping gold under pressure at highs.
Trade Setup (Short XAUUSD)
• Entry: 2865
• Stop Loss (SL): 2875 (10 pips above key resistance)
• Take Profit (TP): 2845 (2:1 RRR)
Rationale:
• Selling into resistance at 2865 where price action shows exhaustion.
• Stop placed above the last major swing high.
• Targeting a retracement to 2845, a logical support level based on price action and short-term trends.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-6-25: Counter-Trend RALLY Today's pattern is a counter-trend Rally pattern. I read this as a downward trending type of rally phase/bar.
Much like yesterday's rally in the markets. Today should be just the opposite - a downward trending bar.
I believe this is a move downward setting up the Deep-V pattern which should hit early next week.
I suggest traders prepare for a rollover-topping pattern near this upper resistance area and prepare for the markets to move downward - seeking support.
Gold and Silver will likely move downward as well if the market does roll over, as I suspect. Gold and Silver tend to move downward when the markets shift into a downward trend.
Bitcoin is trapped within a range (again), and it appears that over the next few days, it will attempt to move downward with the markets.
Again, the next four to five days will be a do-or-die type of move. I've been telling all of you this Deep-V breakdown will happen for more than thirty days, so I'm watching to see if it really does happen.
Either way, it is now a bad idea to take some profits near these highs in preparation for any potential breakdown.
Get Some.
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Gold Retreat Slightly but Bullish Momentum Remains IntactGold Futures Slip but Stay Near Record Highs; Bull Market to Persist, Citi Says
Gold Technical Analysis
Gold reached an all-time high (ATH) of 2,882 yesterday before reversing.
Currently, Gold is expected to correct towards the breakout level near 2,809. Initially, the price may attempt to test 2,841, and a 1-hour or 4-hour candle closing below this level could lead to a drop toward 2,823.
On the other hand, if a 1-hour candle closes above 2,861, the price could reach 2,873. Furthermore, a 4-hour candle closing above 2,873 would confirm a bullish continuation toward 2,895 and 2,918.
Key Levels
Pivot Point: 2861
Resistance Levels: 2873, 2895, 2918
Support Levels: 2841, 2823, 2809
Trend Outlook
Bullish confirmation above 2873
Expected movement range: 2861 – 2841
Bearish scenario if the price remains below 2861
Gold Update: $3,000 Is Not the Final DestinationGold futures broke above minor consolidation, so the map should be updated.
Wave 3 becomes extended (blue small waves) and it is looking to test the trendline resistance near magic $3,000 level.
But that's not all as we didn't see wave 4 yet.
It should be complex to alternate wave 2, which was simple.
Wave 4 could hit the $2,500-2,550 area to complete correction.
We can measure it after wave 3 will be completed.
And finally, wave 5 is usually extended in commodities.
It could be huge, wave 3 already travelled over $1,000,
imagine where wave 5 could rocket then.
It will depend on how deep wave 4 would retrace first.
Stay tuned, share your thoughts below, lucky trades to all of you!
EUR/USD : More Fall Ahead? Let's See! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the EUR/USD chart on the three-day timeframe, we can see that the price was rejected from the 1.053 level, as per our main analysis, leading to a decline of over 300 pips down to 1.021.
Currently, EUR/USD is trading around 1.036, and if the price stabilizes below 1.042, we can expect further downside movement. Keep an eye on the price reaction to the key levels marked on the chart!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
EUR/USD : Get Ready for the next Bearish move (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the #EURUSD chart on the 3-day timeframe, we can see that after rising to the upper limit of the supply zone at 1.046 - 1.055, the price has finally corrected and is currently trading around 1.042. If the price stabilizes below this level, we can expect further declines in EURUSD.
However, keep in mind that in about 2.5 hours, we have the significant CB Consumer Confidence report, which could strongly impact the market!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
XAUUSD - Where will gold go?!US President Donald Trump has raised serious concerns among global economies and financial markets by threatening to impose punitive tariffs on the country’s largest trading partners. So far, he has imposed a 10% tariff on goods imported from China, delayed the implementation of 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, and indicated that the European Union will be the next target of his trade policies. However, beyond the political hype, tariffs have important practical and economic effects.
Tariffs are actually a type of tax on imported goods that, like other taxes, are a source of revenue for the government. Many countries impose these taxes to protect domestic production, as tariffs increase the price of foreign goods and therefore strengthen the competitiveness of domestic products. Trump, however, is using this tool not only to support domestic industries but also as leverage in his foreign policy. One example of this policy is his decision to postpone the imposition of new tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, which was made after the two countries agreed to implement stricter measures to control immigration and combat drug trafficking at their common borders.
Tariffs were once a major source of revenue for the US government, but their share has declined significantly over the past century. According to an analysis of official data by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, as of last year, tariffs accounted for less than 3 percent of total federal revenue.
If the tariffs were to be permanently imposed, as Trump initially proposed, the total additional costs to American importers over the next decade could reach $1.1 trillion. The nonpartisan Tax Foundation estimates that the policy could lead to tax increases of up to $110 billion by 2025 alone. The think tank also estimates that tariffs on China, which began under Trump and expanded under Biden, currently generate $77 billion in revenue for the U.S. government annually.
Economic studies show that ultimately, American consumers and businesses will bear the brunt of these tariffs. While some foreign producers may lower their prices or accept some of the costs from American importers, in many cases, companies will raise the prices of their goods to compensate for the additional costs, and those costs will be passed on to consumers.
A look at recent U.S.-China trade relations provides a clear example of the impact of tariffs. During Trump’s first term, he imposed a series of tariffs on Chinese imports, including steel, aluminum, and industrial engines. The policy has reduced China’s share of U.S. imports from about 20 percent in 2018 to 14 percent by 2023.
Meanwhile, official demand for gold continues to play a major role in the precious metal’s market, keeping prices near record levels. It’s not just emerging market central banks buying gold to protect their currencies.
Krishan Gopal, senior analyst for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa at the World Gold Council, pointed to data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in a social media post that showed Taiwan’s central bank increased its gold reserves in October. According to the report, the official gold reserves of the Central Bank of Taiwan reached 424 tons three months ago.
Despite the recent volatility in the gold market, analysts believe that the continued purchases of central banks will continue to be the main factor in maintaining the bullish trend of the precious metal. Joy Yang, global head of index product management at MarketVector Indexes, said that with the increasing geopolitical uncertainties caused by Trump’s economic policies and the slogan of “America First”, central banks are looking for more neutral assets to preserve the value of their reserves. According to him, these policies of the Trump administration have made gold a more attractive option for countries that want to protect themselves against economic risks and reduce their dependence on the US dollar and Treasuries.
Katie Kriski, commodity market strategist at Invesco, also believes that the high demand for gold by central banks continues to create significant value for retail investors. He also predicted that this trend will not stop in the near future, citing the People’s Bank of China as one of the most prominent examples of this behavior in the global gold market.
Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 1-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. A correction towards the demand zone for gold will provide us with the next buying opportunity with a good risk-reward ratio.
Gold is soaring, has it reached its all-time high?Gold still maintains the trend of bullish structure in the rising channel, and the daily line hits a new record high of 2882, ending the rising streak. The upward trend has expanded to $300 since 2582 on December 19.
From the technical perspective of gold, how much upward space is there in this round of upward trend? When will the trend change? First of all, the daily and weekly RSI indicators are both at a high level close to 80 values. After the weekly chart hit a record high, the price deviated from the MA10 daily moving average, and the price was above the upper track of the Bollinger band. From the weekly and daily charts, as the increase further expands, the upward space is gradually compressed. Pay attention to the high and low after the historical high and the turning of the indicator signal after overbought. Trading ideas: Buy at a low price in the callback, but hold short-term and do not chase high prices. Pay attention to the opportunity of long-term band short at the historical high!
The short-term structure is still relatively obvious, and the strong market is rising unilaterally. The bullish buyers of gold are almost out of control. Is 2900 no longer the target in February? This frequent rise may really reach an unprecedented high of 3,000 at the beginning of 2025!
The current trend of gold is relatively resistant to declines. Without news or data catalysis, the bulls will not take profits and enter the market again for the time being. If it falls today, it will give an opportunity to adjust the low-price buying entry. Today, it is still bullish with 2,850 as the defense point. February is destined to have a historical high. Today, continue yesterday's low-price buying idea!
Key points:
First support: 2860, second support: 2852, third support: 2840
First resistance: 2878, second resistance: 2886, third resistance: 2898
Operation ideas:
BUY: 2851-2854, SL: 2842, TP: 2880-2890;
SELL: 2895-2898, SL: 2907, TP: 2860-2850;
Gold Holds Near Record $2,860 as Rate Cut Expectations RiseGold held near $2,860 per ounce, a record high, as expectations of lower interest rates increased its safe-haven appeal. Weak US services data signaled a potential slowdown, leading investors to anticipate two Fed rate cuts this year. The ECB and BoC have already cut rates, and the RBI and BoE are expected to follow. Gold also gained support from geopolitical risks, including Trump’s remarks on Gaza and Iran, as well as concerns over the US-China trade war’s economic impact.
Technically, the first resistance level will be 2879 level. In case of this level’s breach, the next levels to watch would be 2917 and 2950. On the downside, 2830 will be the first support level. 2790 and 2760 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.
which is the next stop of xauusd?Technical Perspective: Gold's Bullish Trend
Current Trend
Gold’s bullish trend remains intact, with strong price action maintaining upward momentum.
The precious metal has successfully breached the $2,850 level, signaling potential for a move toward $2,900.
Bullish Channel
Gold is trading within a well-defined bullish channel, which provides:
Strong Support: At $2,835.
Resistance Zone: Between $2,875 and $2,900.
Key Indicator:
As long as Gold holds above the $2,835 support level, the bullish momentum is expected to persist.
Anticipated Trading Range (Today)
Support: $2,835.
Resistance: $2,875.
The market is likely to continue testing these boundaries in the short term.
Potential Breakout
The technical setup suggests a high likelihood of breaking higher if additional external factors provide support, such as:
Weaker Economic Data: Signals from U.S. economic reports.
Dovish Fed Commentary: Hints at further interest rate cuts or accommodative monetary policy
XAUUSD:5/2 Today's Market Analysis and StrategySpot gold technical analysis
Daily resistance 2900, support below 27723
Four-hour resistance 2900, support below 2840
Gold operation suggestions: Gold fell slightly in the shock yesterday and stabilized at the 2807 mark, ushering in a strong bottoming out and rebounding, and continued to break through new highs. The overall gold price continued the strong unilateral upward trend of the bulls with the support of the 5-day moving average.
From the 4-hour analysis, pay attention to the short-term support of 2840 below, and continue to be bullish when stepping back. Pay attention to the short-term resistance above 2870-80. The overall trading direction of stepping back and buying is maintained in this range.
BUY:2840near SL:2835
BUY:2850near SL:2745
Technical analysis only provides trading direction!
Gold (XAUUSD) Bullish Continuation with Key Targets This chart shows a bullish trend for gold (XAUUSD) on the 1-hour timeframe, with price respecting an upward trendline and staying above key moving averages. A possible buy zone is identified near the trendline support, suggesting potential continuation to the upside.
The first target is set around 2,880, while the second target extends to 2,901. The structure indicates break-of-structure (BOS) and change-of-character (ChoCh) points, confirming bullish momentum. If price holds above the buy zone, further upside movement toward the targets is likely. A break below the trendline could signal a short-term cor OANDA:XAUUSD rection.
XAUUSD M15 | Bearish Breakout?Based on the M15 chart, Calling for a bearish break below the sell entry level at 2,860.73. This level has acted as key support, and a confirmed break below it could trigger further downside momentum.
A successful breakdown would open the way towards our take profit at 2,844.96, aligning with a previous demand zone and the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Our stop loss is placed at 2,877.99, above the recent swing high, to allow for price fluctuations while maintaining a bearish outlook. If price fails to break below the pivot, it could signal a potential bullish rejection instead.
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Trump's policy promotes safe asset purchasesOANDA:XAUUSD increased sharply and reached a record high as uncertainty about Trump's policies prompted buying of safe assets, along with a decline in the US Dollar and US Treasury bond yields.
OANDA:XAUUSD renews record highs as traders seek safe haven. The escalation of the Sino-US trade war has caused investors to flock to gold as a safe haven.
Earlier this week, China responded to the new round of US tariffs by imposing tariffs on US goods, further escalating the trade war.
US President Trump's rhetoric and policies continue to push investors toward gold. Amid the uncertainty caused by Trump's policies, gold prices will likely continue to reach new all-time highs in the near term.
As Trump postponed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada for 30 days but imposed 10% tariffs on China, the uncertainty has investors concerned about the potential for disruption to global trade. As a result, they continue to seek safety in precious metals and abandon the US Dollar.
Investors are looking to Friday's US nonfarm payrolls report for more clues on the outlook for interest rates.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold corrected slightly after reaching the target level at the 0.786% Fibonacci extension noted by readers in yesterday's publication.
However, gold can still continue to renew with new all-time highs, once the 0.786% Fibonacci extension is broken it will tend to continue rising with the target then around 2,900 USD in the short term, more than 2,918 USD.
Although the Relative Strength Index is entering the overbought area, there is no sign of a correction yet; if the RSI slopes below 80, it will be considered a signal for a correction.
During the day, as long as gold remains in/above the price channel, above EMA21, it still has a bullish outlook. Notable levels will be listed again as follows.
Support: 2,846USD
Resistance: 2,878 – 2,900USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2889 - 2887⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2893
→Take Profit 1 2882
↨
→Take Profit 2 2877
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2844 - 2846⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2840
→Take Profit 1 2851
↨
→Take Profit 2 2856
Trade Idea: Long Position ( BUY LIMIT )
Analysis:
1. Technical Analysis:
• Daily Chart:
A strong bullish trend with higher highs and higher lows. RSI above 70 indicates overbought levels, but momentum remains intact. The MACD shows bullish momentum.
• 15-Minute Chart:
Clear bullish structure with a potential consolidation phase forming. MACD indicates bullish crossover while RSI remains neutral around 51.
• 3-Minute Chart:
Minor pullbacks visible, but the structure remains bullish with price trending above key moving averages.
2. Fundamental Analysis:
• Recent market sentiment suggests safe-haven demand for gold due to potential economic uncertainty.
• USD remains vulnerable amid Federal Reserve dovish tones.
Trade Idea: Long Position
Entry:
2865 (current minor support level)
Stop Loss (SL):
2850 (15 points below entry)
Take Profit (TP):
2895 (2:1 RRR, 30 points above entry)
This setup offers a strong likelihood of success given the continuation of the current bullish trend and market conditions supporting gold prices.
Gold is Holding the the bullish Pressure! Price moved bullish yesterday then stalled during NY session and ended up pulling back for the rest of the day. As we come into Asian session for a new day the question is will they retrace to give a low entry or just run and gun it out the gate? We just have to be patient and wait for it.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade : Where's The Deep-V Bottom?I created this video to help illustrate what I believe are nearly perfect setups of multiple Excess Phase Peak Patterns over the past 30+ days in the SPY and QQQ.
It is incredible how these patterns continue to form/setup in a broadening sideways price channel. If we didn't know to look for these patterns, we could easily mistake this volatility as some type of longer-term buying opportunity.
Remember, if my research is correct, we are going to see an almost immediate reversal of the trend over the next 48 hours - leading to a Deep-V set up in the early few days of next week.
I've been wrong before, but I really do believe this Deep-V downward trend is about to happen.
I believe some news event over the weekend could send the markets into a minor panic-type selloff.
Additionally, I believe the disruptions related to what is happening in DC and other areas may be enough to send the markets searching for support.
Recent earnings have not been fantastic, and we are moving into a relatively complacent Q1:2025. So, I still believe we are moving into a broadening "megaphone" price range on the SPY and QQQ.
One thing is certain right now: In about 4 to 7 days, we'll know whether my Deep-V base/bottom pattern call (from more than 30 days ago) was accurate.
Buckle up, folks. This is when things get really interesting.
Get Some.
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