GOLD → Gold not ready to fall? What's going on?FX:XAUUSD is forming a local bottom and is not ready to continue falling. The price is breaking through the downward resistance amid a weakening dollar and a complicated fundamental backdrop.
At the beginning of the week, the price of gold stabilized above $3,250 as investors returned to defensive assets due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade agreements with China and Japan, as well as growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine.
The weakness of the dollar ahead of the Fed meeting and declining expectations of a rate cut are also supporting demand for gold. The focus remains on US trade news and the possible hawkish tone of the Fed this week.
Technically, the price is testing the bottom of the range as resistance. If there is no reaction to the false breakout and the price continues to storm 3268, then a breakout and consolidation above the level will allow it to strengthen to 3292-3314.
Resistance levels: 3269, 3294, 3314
Support levels: 3243, 3222, 3204
The price is forming a second retest of 3269 since the session opened. Buyers are testing resistance for a breakout. If the bulls break 3269 and consolidate above 3270, the chances for growth will be good. I do not rule out the possibility of a retest of the liquidity zone at 3243 before growth.
Best regards, R. Linda!
Gold
Gold Breaks Wedge, 3270–3280 Now Key Pivot for RecoveryGold's recent retreat has slowed, forming a descending wedge pattern that has now been broken. This is a constructive setup for a potential upward reaction after falling $300 from the $3,500 high. The 3,270–3,280 zone is now the short-term pivot point. If this level breaks as well, the upward move may finally begin.
Potential targets include the 38.2% retracement level at 3,316 and the main resistance zone at 3,355–3,370.
XAUUSD M15 | Be arish Drop Based on the H4 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 3374.12, a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibo retracement.
Our take profit is set at 3347.96, aligning with the 61.8% Fibo retracement.
The stop loss is set at 3392.59, above a swing high resistance.
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GOLD Potential ReversalIt appears that we've reached a significant top in the market, with price action showing signs of a potential dump. Liquidity has been taken out at this level, and we are now looking at lower price targets, which align with the lines below, marking new liquidity points. These areas could serve as key support levels as the market tests them for further reaction.
The price structure suggests a possible drop to the target zones around 3,300 / 3,200 & 2970 where we could see renewed buying interest. Stay cautious as we approach these levels, as they may present opportunities for short entries ahead of the market correction.
Keep an eye on the evolving price action for further confirmations.
Gold Price ActionHello traders! This is almost same setup or pattern as BTCUSD
If you look closely at the left side of the chart, you’ll notice multiple rejections from the same zone — forming a head-and-shoulders-style distribution. This area has now become a strong supply zone.
📌 What to Expect:
This is a high-probability short setup. If price taps into the supply zone again, it could trigger a strong move down, especially with liquidity already swept.
XAU/USD Market Outlook – Key Levels & Scenarios (May 2025)📊 Market Overview
Asset: XAU/USD (Gold vs. USD) – likely
Timeframe: 🕒 4H or Daily
EMAs:
🔴 50 EMA = 3,281 (short-term trend)
🔵 200 EMA = 3,179 (long-term trend)
🧱 Key Zones
🔺 Main Resistance Zone (🚫 Supply Area)
📍 ~3,320–3,400
🔍 Observation: Strong rejection zone with multiple failed attempts. 🚧 Price struggles to break and hold above here.
⚖️ Mid Support & Resistance Zone
📍 ~3,200–3,250
🧭 Current Action: Price is consolidating here. This is a key decision zone. A bounce or breakdown will likely decide the next big move. 🤔
🟦 Main Support Zone
📍 ~2,980–3,030
🛑 Observation: Major demand zone. If price falls here, it might attract buyers 👥 for a potential rebound.
📉 EMA Analysis
🔴 50 EMA is above 🔵 200 EMA → Trend still technically bullish ✅
🟡 BUT: Price is currently below 50 EMA, showing short-term weakness ⚠️
⚡️ 200 EMA is nearby (~3,179): Acting as dynamic support — a critical bounce zone! 🛡️
🔮 Scenarios
🐂 Bullish Path
✅ If price bounces from 3,200 support zone and reclaims 🔴 50 EMA:
🎯 Target: Retest of 3,320–3,400 🔺 zone
📈 Confirmation: Strong candle closing above 3,281 🔴 EMA
🐻 Bearish Path
🚨 If price breaks below 3,200 & 200 EMA:
🕳️ Expect drop towards 2,980–3,030 🟦 zone
📉 Confirmation: Candle closes below 3,179 with weak retest
✅ Conclusion
📍 Key Level to Watch: 3,200
⚖️ Market Sentiment: Neutral → Bearish bias unless price reclaims 50 EMA
🔒 Risk Tip: Avoid longs until price confirms bullish structure again 🔐
Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis – Technical + Fundamental OutlookTechnical Outlook
Gold is currently trading inside a descending channel and has reached the midline, which is acting as dynamic resistance.
📍 Key Levels:
Resistance: 3310 – 3320 (aligned with the midline of the channel) – price has not yet confirmed a breakout above this zone
Next Bullish Targets: 3350 – 3358 / 3385 – 3390
Support Zone: 3270 – 3280 (potential bullish re-entry area)
🟣 All key price levels are marked on the chart with light purple lines for clarity.
🟠 RSI is near 65, showing bullish momentum but approaching overbought territory, signaling a possible short-term pullback.
🔁 Likely scenario: A minor correction toward 3270–3280 followed by continuation toward 3350+ if support holds.
Fundamental Context
The ISM Services PMI came in stronger than expected (51.6 vs. 50.2 forecast), reflecting economic resilience in the U.S. This typically supports the USD and weighs on gold, but:
Rising tariff threats from Trump raise recession concerns.
Services Prices Index rose to 65.1, signaling growing inflation pressures.
These inflation concerns may impact the Fed’s upcoming rate decisions.
Central bank demand and geopolitical risks continue to support gold medium-term.
Summary
Despite being inside a descending channel, gold is showing short-term bullish strength. A confirmed break above 3320 could open the way toward 3350+. Otherwise, a pullback to the 3270–3280 area may offer the next setup.
Israel-Houthi conflict could put gold back on the bull run🗞News side:
1. The Israeli president said that they are on the eve of a "large-scale attack on the Gaza Strip"
2. The Houthi armed forces stated that all Israeli airports are their targets
3. The situation of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the follow-up events of the India-Pakistan conflict
📈Technical aspects:
From a technical point of view, the current 1H moving average of gold is spreading upward, resulting in a small retracement. The short orders we hold are also closed in time at 3310 to lock in profits. After gold broke through the previous range, the upward channel opened. The 4H MACD diverged from the bottom, the golden cross and the green column enlarged, opening upward, and the overall 4H trend was bullish. Moreover, the support effect of the middle rail of the Bollinger Bands is obvious, and the gold price is accumulating strength below the upper rail of the Bollinger Bands, with strong upward momentum. Pay attention to 3310. After the support stabilizes, you can consider participating in long positions near 3310-3320, focusing on the 3290 line below; focus on 3375 above, and then consider participating in short sales near 3355-3365 after the pressure is under.
If you agree with this point of view, or you have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
TVC:GOLD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold Price ActionHello, Currently, price is in a Compression Phase after a strong Resistance Breakout (RBO). This tight consolidation is creating liquidity on both sides—setting up for a potential breakout.
What to Watch:
Compression Phase = Liquidity Building
Price is moving within a narrow range, trapping traders and stacking orders above and below.
We're waiting for a clean breakout of this range.
After the breakout, price is likely to retrace back toward the base (marked zone) before making a strong move toward the Buy Side Liquidity (BSL).
🎯 Trade Plan:
Wait for the compression to break. A return to the base zone could offer an entry, with BSL as the target (TP).
⚠️ Stay patient and avoid early entries—let the breakout confirm the move.
✅ Patience is key—wait for confirmation and manage risk smartly.
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Great start to the week with our Bullish target at 3260 hit, followed with ema5 cross and lock opening 3308. This was hit perfectly also completing this target.
We are now seeing ema5 lock above 3308 opening 3340. Any rejections on this zone will see price testing the lower Goldturns for suport and bonce inline with our plans to buy dips within the overall structure.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3260 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3260 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3308 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3308 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3340
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3340 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3382
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3382 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3428
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3428 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3478
BEARISH TARGETS
3217
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3217 WILL OPEN THE BEARISH TARGETS
3174
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3174 WILL OPEN THE SWING RNGE
3126
3078
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3078 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3034 - 2979
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD: Short Signal Explained
GOLD
- Classic bearish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell GOLD
Entry - 3311.9
Stop - 3324.4
Take - 3287.1
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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Hanzo | Gold 15 min 3315 – Next is bearish Move🆚 Gold – Hanzo’s Strike Setup
🔥 Timeframe: 15-Minute (15M)
——————
💯 Main Focus: Bearish Reversal at 3317
We are watching this zone closely. Expecting Reversal
———
Analysis
👌 Market Signs (15M TF):
• Liquidity Grab + CHoCH at 3265
• Liquidity Grab + CHoCH at 3318
• Strong Rejections seen at:
➗ 3270 – Major support / Key level
➗ 3325 – Proven resistance
🩸 Key Zones to Watch:
• 3272 – 🔥 Bullish breakout level X 7 Swing Retest
• 3325 – Strong resistance (tested 5 times)
• 3270 – Equal lows
• 3328 – Equal highs
GOLD H1 / 3285 USD & 3155 USD key BUY/SELL Levels🏆 Gold Market Mid-Term Update
📊 Technical Outlook Update
🏆 Market Overview
▪️correction in progress
▪️3285 USD overhead resistance
▪️Multiple waves of selling in progress
▪️Rejection at 3500 USD key S/R
▪️3155 USD logical next target short-term
▪️flagging on lower timeframe
▪️waves of profit taking pulling prices down
▪️3285 USD a good level to SHORT
▪️3145/3155 USD will be targeted by BEARS
▪️BULLS wait to BUY/HOLD low later
▪️Once the pullback/correction is over
📊 Gold Market Summary – May 5, 2025
🟡 Current Price: $3,266.20 (+0.82%)
📉 Weekly Close: $3,247.40 (flat for the week after sharp swings)
🇺🇸 US Jobs Data: 177K jobs added in April, earnings growth slowed to 0.2%. Market now watching Fed for rate cut signals.
🏦Fed Outlook: Mixed data fuels speculation on policy shift. Analysts see gold’s pullback as a new buying opportunity.
🌏Asian Demand: China and India remain key forces in price direction, alternating as major buyers.
📦Tariff Watch: Ongoing U.S.-China trade tension continues to weigh on risk sentiment, keeping gold in play.
🛑Geopolitics: No major updates on Iran-U.S. talks, India-Pakistan, or Russia-Ukraine ceasefire yet. These remain key risk triggers.
📈 Market Sentiment: Despite volatility, investor outlook stays bullish. Analysts eye mid-term targets above $4,000 if conditions align.
GOLD - WAVE 4 CORRECTION TO $2,800 (UPDATE)Gold starting the week with some bullish momentum. We've seen a 'BOS' to the downside, which is now being followed by a retest of a supply zone. This zone can either be around $3,317 (0.618% Fib) or higher around $3,400 zone (0.365% Fib).
Don't forget we're in a 'Wave 4 Correction' of the Elliott Wave Theory strategy. Wave 4 always has choppy price action to trap in late buyers & early sellers.
XAU/USD - Channel Breakout (05.05.2025)The XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 3321
2nd Resistance – 3357
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-5-25 : GAP Reversal PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY will open with a GAP range from yesterday's candle Body and attempt to reverse the trend we saw last week.
I believe this move will resolve to the downside, as I've been warning of the May 2-5 Major Bottom for many weeks.
I believe the extended uptrend over the last few weeks was pure speculation related to Q1 US earnings. It is hard to argue that traders playing into the Q1 earnings boost didn't play the right side of the trend after watching the markets rally over the past 2+ weeks. But, I still believe the markets will consolidate and attempt to move downward over the next 10- 20+ days.
The one thing that we have to understand is Q1 was almost on auto-pilot from Biden's economy/spending until Trump threw a curveball at the global markets with tariffs.
I don't believe the US & global markets have truly priced in a global -25% to -45% economic contraction because of the ongoing tariff negotiations. It has been reported that shipping rates are down 60% in China. I believe we still need another 30-60+ days to work out the tariff issues and to allow the markets to settle into proper expectations for future economic output/growth.
Because of this, I continue to urge traders to stay cautious.
Sitting on CASH right now (only trading 20% of your total capital) is probably the smartest thing you can do at the moment.
I still expect the July and October 2025 lows to be the base/bottom of the markets, leading to a stronger upward price trend.
Right now, I've very cautious we've just seen a "dead-cat bounce" off recent lows because of Q1 earnings expectations.
Now that we've passed most of the Q1 data - we are staring at Q2 & Q3. What comes next.
I believe Gold/Silver will continue to price in extreme risk factors - resulting in a strong rally through May and into June.
I believe Bitcoin will stall and move back down to the lower consolidation range.
Let's see how things play out this week.
Get some.
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XAUUSD - Gold Trend Before FOMC!Gold is trading above its EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is trading on its uptrend line. A continued upward move in gold will put it in the supply zone, where it is possible to look for short positions. A downward correction in gold will also open up long positions.
Gold traders endured another turbulent week, marked by the second consecutive decline in prices—once again underscoring the market’s acute sensitivity to economic news and developments.
Adrian Day, CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management, offered a cautiously humorous take on the situation by likening it to the Peggy Lee song that asks, “Is that all there is?” He pointed out that gold has pulled back by over 7% from its recent high in less than two weeks.Although this correction is notable, it hasn’t been deep enough to flush out all short-term traders or weak-handed investors from the market.
Day added that rising fears of a U.S. recession—which typically exert early downward pressure on gold—alongside the possibility of easing U.S.-China trade tensions, may limit investment demand for gold in the short term. Concluding his comments, he maintained a cautious stance, saying that further downside remains likely and that his outlook for the coming week is bearish.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump, in a new interview with NBC, addressed several key economic and political issues. He stated that if necessary, the deadline for selling TikTok would be extended, and some tariffs on Chinese goods might become permanent. Nevertheless, he indicated that he is also considering reducing certain tariffs in the future.
Trump emphasized that small businesses do not require additional assistance and that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates. He confirmed that Jerome Powell will remain Fed Chair through the end of his term in 2026. He also mentioned potential successors for his own position, naming Vance and Rubio as possibilities.
After a week dominated by employment data, the upcoming week will be entirely focused on monetary policy. The centerpiece will be the May FOMC meeting, the Fed’s rate decision, and Jerome Powell’s press conference on Wednesday. While markets broadly expect the Fed to hold rates steady, Powell’s official remarks and answers to press questions—especially following his sharp tone earlier in April—will be under close scrutiny.
It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will leave its key interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, as policymakers assess how President Trump’s tariffs gradually impact various sectors of the economy. Markets are currently pricing in a potential rate cut starting in July. The Fed’s dual mandate is to maintain low inflation and high employment, and it may face a dilemma if tariffs negatively affect both indicators, as many economists now warn.
Immediately following the Fed meeting, senior policymakers including Barr, Kugler, Waller, and Cook will travel to Iceland to attend the Reykjavik Economic Conference. On Friday, they will participate in panels discussing artificial intelligence, labor market trends, and monetary research—topics that could offer insights into the Fed’s long-term policy direction.
Simultaneously, traders are also awaiting two key reports: the ISM Services Index for May, due today, and weekly jobless claims figures set for release on Thursday. Together, these reports will help complete the picture of the U.S. economy as critical monetary policy decisions approach.
XAUUSD: 5/5 Today’s Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
4-hour chart resistance level 3350, support level 3260
1-hour chart resistance level 3350, support level 3274
30-minute chart resistance level 3320, support level 3290
At the 4-hour level, gold lows continue to move up, highs continue to refresh, MACD technical indicators have formed a golden cross upward, adding momentum to the bulls.
The previous high of 3272 will turn into support after breaking through. If the retracement is large, buy again after stabilizing in the 3270-3280 range.
Short-term resistance is at the previous high of 3320. After breaking through, the upward trend will continue. The bullish targets are 3330 and 3350 respectively. If it is blocked near 3350, you can consider selling
Gold price suddenly accelerates, approaching the 3,300 USD/ounceAfter two consecutive weeks of decline, the world gold price is showing strong signs of recovery when it skyrocketed to 3,266 USD/ounce - an increase of 25 USD in just one session. Although still quite far from the peak of 3,500 USD/ounce, the increase this morning shows that investor sentiment has begun to change direction.
The increase occurred at the beginning of the session despite previous negative forecasts, reflecting the sensitivity of gold to geopolitical and economic information such as US-China trade negotiations or the strength of the USD. The daily chart shows that gold has bounced strongly from the EMA34 support zone and returned to the resistance zone around 3,320–3,340 USD, opening up an opportunity to retest the 3,400 USD mark if the current increase is maintained.