Get started

Gold

SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : Behind The Scenes ResearchI want to say thank you to all of you and to share with you all the work/resources/servers/and other data I maintain to help me identify where and how the markets will present opportunities to all of us. This video shows you a bit of the behind-the-scenes work I do and some of my proprietary modeling systems. I'm not sharing this with you to try to win you over or to tell you I do more than anyone else in terms of research. I'm sure there are many others who go much further than I do in terms of trying to dissect the markets and the opportunities available. But I do believe I deliver very unique research, which is a one-of-a-kind solution for traders. Again, I'm not 100% accurate (I wish I were). But I am trying to share some of the decision-making solutions I use to understand where the markets are likely to move over the next 2- 4+ months and how traders can profit from my research. Remember, you are only seeing about 10% of my total research, tools, modeling systems, and capabilities in these Plan Your Trade videos. I want to thank all of you who continue to value my work. It is not easy. It takes money, time, and resources to continue to monitor all of these systems/algos. The end result, I believe, is one of the most unique future/current modeling system resources you can find anywhere. Again, thank you for making my research a success. I promise to do more and improve my tools over the next 12+ months for everyone to find better profits. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
2
XAUUSD H4 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 3259.47 which is a pullback resistance aligning close to the 38.2% Fibo retracement. Our take profit will be at 3170.07, a pullback support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibo retracement. The stop loss will be placed at 3343.42, an overlap resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com/en): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:XAUUSDShort
by Tradu
Heading into pullback resistance?XAU/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 23.6% and the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 3,275.29 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that line sup with the 23.6% and the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 3,350.60 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 3,168.44 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:XAUUSDShort
by VantageMarkets
XAUUSD Technical Analysis: Bullish and Bearish ScenariosGold (XAUUSD) has exhibited a strong bullish impulse, breaking out of established channel structures. Following a sharp ascent, the price action has entered a consolidation phase near recent highs. This analysis explores potential scenarios based on technical patterns, key levels, and underlying market psychology. Chart Analysis and Market Psychology The chart displays a distinct uptrend characterized by ascending channels. Recently, XAUUSD experienced a significant upward thrust, breaking decisively above the shorter-term orange channel. This move reached the projected target derived from this channel's height, near the 3405 level. Following this peak, price action has formed a tighter consolidation range. This pattern, occurring after a sharp rally and on potentially decreasing volume (as is common in such formations), resembles a bullish continuation pattern, such as a pennant or flag. From a market psychology perspective, this suggests a temporary equilibrium: Buying Pressure: Bulls who drove the initial breakout may be pausing, absorbing profits taken by earlier entrants, or accumulating new positions in anticipation of further upside. The sharp nature of the preceding rally indicates strong underlying demand and potentially FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) among participants. Selling Pressure: Sellers are attempting to cap the rally, potentially taking profits or initiating short positions. However, the observation that dips below 3259 were quickly bought suggests that selling pressure has been relatively weak compared to the buying interest defending this level. This rejection indicates that market participants still perceive value at or above this zone, viewing it as a potential support level following the breakout. The key level currently in focus appears to be around 3259. The price interaction with this level could be crucial in determining the next directional move. Bullish Scenario Conditions: For a bullish continuation, the price would ideally need to hold above the 3259 support level. A decisive breakout above the upper boundary of the current consolidation pattern would serve as confirmation. Psychology: This outcome would suggest that the consolidation phase was indeed accumulative, with buyers absorbing selling pressure and preparing for the next leg higher. It would reinforce the "impatient bulls" and "weak bears" narrative. Potential Targets: A retest of the recent highs near 3405. The target derived from the breakout of the medium-term turquoise channel, located near 3640. Given the aggressive nature of the preceding rally, an overshoot towards the higher projection at 3839 might become a possibility if bullish momentum remains exceptionally strong after breaking 3640. Bearish Scenario Conditions: A failure to hold the 3259 level, coupled with a break below the lower boundary of the consolidation pattern, could signal a potential reversal or a deeper pullback. This might involve price re-entering the previously broken orange channel. Psychology: This scenario would suggest that the buying pressure was insufficient to sustain the breakout, potentially indicating a "bull trap" or simply a more significant profit-taking wave overwhelming demand at current levels. Potential Support Zones: The upper trendline of the orange channel (acting as support after being resistance). The primary uptrend line (lower boundary) of the orange channel. The channel line (upper boundary) of the broader turquoise channel, which could coincide with the orange channel's lower boundary, potentially forming a confluence of support. Concluding Remarks XAUUSD is at a potential juncture following a strong bullish breakout. The current consolidation pattern holds the key to the next immediate move. Holding above 3259 and breaking the consolidation high could pave the way for further upside towards targets at 3640 and potentially 3839. Conversely, a failure to maintain support at 3259 might trigger a pullback towards the support levels defined by the underlying channel structures. Traders often watch volume closely during the resolution of such patterns for confirmation. Disclaimer: This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Trading involves risk, and decisions should be based on your own research and risk tolerance.  
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AccumulationPro
Gold Eiffel Tower The GOLD GTFO is still in play. What saved Gold was the stopping for the market crash when Trumnpchenko manipulated the markets. Had the crash continued Gold would have crashed with it. As it is the last safe haven for money to pile into and people just give up and sell everything in sight. If you were an early buyer of gold and sold above $3,000 then you have a nice 50% gain. Take your money and RUN! All the way to the bank! Don't be a dick for a tick. If you are then you will ride it all the way back down. When will it top no one can know. But what pros do is take their money and RUN! So be a pro! ;) Click like follow subscribe!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RealMacro
10
Gold key levels to watchGold has broken key short-term support between 3260-3284 (shaded in grey on the chart). This is a bearish development in the short term outlook from a technical point of view. But with the long-term trend being bullish, traders should take this with a pinch of salt. Key support levels are now approaching. $3200 is an obvious level to keep an eye on. Below that old resistance at $3167 comes into focus next. The line in the sand is at around the $3100 mark, where the bullish trend line is also converging. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by FOREXcom
Gold trading ideas after key data releaseOn the news front, the US April ISM manufacturing PMI was higher than expected, which led to the US Treasury bonds giving up their gains. From a technical analysis point of view, after the gold price fell out of the strong support of 3260 in the shock range, this position turned into the short-term resistance level for our short-term reference, followed by the position of multiple entity K-lines at the hourly level of 3275. There is a possibility of breaking through 3260 in the later period, so 3275 can also be treated as a defensive position. Although the price of gold has been hovering around 3220, our main bearish direction remains unchanged in the short term. The trading strategy given in the afternoon is still a reference. For rebound, first focus on the 3240-3250 first-line resistance, and further look at the top-bottom transition position of 3260-3270. You can participate in transactions in small batches. Below, focus on the 3210-3200 support, and if it falls below, look for the 3193 first-line. TVC:GOLD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AllenBoswell
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, Once again following on from yesterdays update, this 4 chart is also playing out perfectly. After completing both our Bullish 3343 and bearish 3282 targets; we stated price will play tennis between both levels. We also stated that we will look for ema5 cross and lock on either level to determine the next move. - Ema5 crossed and locked below 3282 opening 3224. This was hit perfectly today on the drop completing the full retracement range. We will now look for a break below this level to open the swing range or failure to lock below will see a retest on the next Goldturn above. Each weighted level is still also providing the 30 to 40 pip bounces, just like we always state. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 3343 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3343 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3404 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3404 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3439 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3439 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3503 BEARISH TARGETS 3282 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3282 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 3224 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3224 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE SWING RANGE 3190 - 3138 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3138 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE SECONDARY SWING RANGE 3088 - 3046 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
31
Gold Price (XAUUSD) Retesting Fibonacci Support ZoneGold (XAUUSD) is currently in a technical phase that aligns with a classic **retesting formation**, where price action returns to previous support levels before resuming its bullish trend. After hitting a recent high near 3,350–3,400, gold has begun a healthy retracement, with key Fibonacci levels acting as potential demand zones. The 3,200–3,150 range appears to be a strong support zone, and if this level holds, it could trigger the next leg up in the bullish trend. Volume remains supportive, suggesting market interest is still intact, and buyers may be preparing for re-entry. This consolidation phase could offer an excellent opportunity for smart money accumulation, particularly as gold respects major technical levels and Fibonacci retracement zones. From a macro perspective, continued geopolitical tensions, inflationary concerns, and central bank accumulation of gold provide a strong fundamental backdrop that supports a long-term bullish outlook. If gold maintains above the key 0.5 and 0.618 retracement levels, we could soon witness a new wave targeting the 3,350 to 3,400 resistance zone once again. Market participants should watch for confirmation through bullish candlestick patterns and increasing volume in the coming sessions. A break above 3,275 would further validate bullish continuation and may serve as a trigger point for momentum traders. The broader trend remains intact, and current price action fits the pattern of a technical breather before the next impulsive rally. ✅ Show your support by hitting the like button and ✅ Leaving a comment below! (What is You opinion about this Coin) Your feedback and engagement keep me inspired to share more insightful market analysis with you!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Alpha-GoldFX
XAU/USD: High Volatility is Expected! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the gold chart on the 30-minute timeframe, we can see that, as expected, the price began rising from the $3310 zone yesterday and reached $3330, delivering a 200-pip gain. After that, selling pressure took over, and gold is now trading around $3277. Given the current market structure and today's important news events, I expect high volatility in both bullish and bearish directions. One of the key liquidity pools likely to be targeted today lies below $3259, and before any potential drop, we may see the liquidity gap between $3288 and $3303 being filled. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by ArmanShabanTrading
19
XAUUSD DAILY PLAN & MARKET UPDATE — APRIL 30, 2025Not predictions. Structure. Logic. Execution. 📍 What Happened: 🔻 3315–3325 SELL → Perfect rejection → Drop of 200+ pips 🔁 Retest at 3314 → Confirmed OB rejection zone ❌ 3284–3288 BUY → Invalidated, BOS clean ✅ 3260–3270 BUY → Real reaction zone. OB + FVG + full discount → Delivered bounce 👁‍🗨 Eyes On (Into NY Session & May 1): 3315–3325 = Decision zone  → Break = bullish reversal  → Rejection = new short trigger 3260–3270 = Key support. If holds = bounce continuation 3252–3244 = Next strong buy zone if 3260 fails 3350 / 3385 = Targets only if bullish breakout occurs post-news 🧠 Current Bias: 🔸 HTF Trend: Consolidation under ATH → bearish-leaning 🔹 LTF Flow: Bearish structure unless 3315 flips 🎯 Bias: Neutral-bearish → shifting bullish only above 3325 📊 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH: Zone Type Level(s) Commentary 🔻 Resistance 3385 HTF FVG zone / reversal risk 🔻 Resistance 3350 Clean target above breakout 🔻 Resistance 3325 Final barrier before shift 🔻 Flip Zone 3315–3320 Must flip to validate bulls 🔁 Retest 3308–3312 Last OB rejection ⚖️ Mid Zone 3286–3292 Retest structure, weak ✅ Support 3260–3270 Confirmed bounce zone 🟩 Demand 3252–3244 Next high-conviction buy zone 🟢 Discount 3220–3235 Long-term OB zone 🟢 Discount 3192–3205 Extreme discount + FVG 🗓️ MACRO FOR MAY 1: 🗣️ 15:30 Trump Speech 📉 15:30 Unemployment Claims (forecast: 224K) 🏭 15:45 Final Manufacturing PMI 🏭 17:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI + Prices ⚠️ Expect high volatility. Prepare for breakout setups only after structure confirms — not before. 🎯 Final Note: If 3315–3325 breaks cleanly → we’re heading to 3350 / 3385. If it holds → we hunt reentry shorts with sniper precision. This is not a place to guess. It’s where real traders wait. — 📌 Like plans built on logic, not luck? Drop a 🧠 if this structure helped you. 🔥 Follow if you're done with signal-chasing and ready to trade like a sniper.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
4
Gold's evening rebound continues to be bearishAffected by the initial jobless claims data, gold has rebounded and risen again to around 3220 after touching around 3203. As we mentioned in the previous trading idea, short selling is still our main trading method before there is a big data impact. For the time being, we will first look at the first-line resistance of 3240-3250. If it breaks through this resistance range, we will further look at the key resistance of 3260-3270. If it does not break, we will go short. There is an obvious downhill trend in the weekly line, which is expected to form a continuous negative trend. Then we look to the 3210-3200 support level to remain unchanged, and may even continue to look to the early low support line of 3193. SELL 3240-3250 TP 3210-3200 Many friends who have read my posts have reported that my trading ideas and strategies are very helpful to them. I always firmly believe that profitability is the criterion for measuring strength, and seizing the opportunity is the key to victory. I will post every day to share my trading strategies and ideas for free. If you have just entered the market and don’t know how to make more profits, if you are already in it but the harvest is not ideal, then you might consider taking a look at my profile. OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AllenBoswell
Gold continues to fall, is it expected to reach 3210-3200?Yesterday we mentioned that the market may present a convergent triangle pattern. Today, the gold price has indeed ushered in a wave of sharp declines at the opening of the Asian session, and has fallen below the key support of 3260, and the lowest level has reached 3221. At present, the 1H moving average is spreading downward. In the short term, gold is still in a downward trend and is in a correction to overbought. The gold price is expected to reach 3210-3200. If it falls below this support range, it may even test the previous low of 3193. But at the same time, the 1H RSI indicator has fallen into the oversold area. Therefore, in terms of news, we need to pay attention to the initial jobless claims and PMI data during the US trading session today, and beware of the rebound after the correction. Many friends who have read my posts have reported that my trading ideas and strategies are very helpful to them. I always firmly believe that profitability is the criterion for measuring strength, and seizing the opportunity is the key to victory. I will post every day to share my trading strategies and ideas for free. If you have just entered the market and don’t know how to make more profits, if you are already in it but the harvest is not ideal, then you might consider taking a look at my profile. TVC:GOLD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AllenBoswell
Gold: Breakdown in Motion (15m Chart)Just price, structure, and volume — tracked in real time. 🧠 Chart Breakdown: ✅ Momentum Long — Price broke out from a base with clean volume. MA structure aligned, and bulls had control early. ⛔ Top Reversal — Price peaked and printed a clean rejection. Volume faded. Sellers rotated in. ⛔ Lower High Rejection — Attempt to reclaim highs failed fast. Fib and MA structure stacked against continuation. ⚠️ Temporary Recovery Attempt — Brief bounce off support, but no structure regained. No follow-through = no entry. 🚨 Breakdown Confirmed — Price lost all support levels with conviction. Volume backed the flush. Breakdown held and extended. 👀 Current Pressure Point — Price still pressing lows. Watching to see if momentum continues or if we get exhaustion behavior. Always happy to be helpful.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by tradingqueen1980
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-1 : Bottom-104Today's Bottom pattern suggests the markets will attempt to move downward - trying to find support. Even though it may appear my May 2-5 Major Bottom pattern will not happen as I expect - this is a very good lesson for traders. I'm not 100% accurate all the time. Sometimes, the markets do things that are not aligned with my research/patterns and sometimes the markets can be far more irrational than traders expect. For example, I believe this current rally is more of a speculative rally in the SPY/QQQ/BTCUSD. There is nothing I'm seeing in the Crash Index (or TRAN) to support this upward price move other than traders attempting to "buy the dip". Ultimately, I believe the current contraction in the global economy based on policies, tariffs and economic disruptions will continue to drive a consolidation, basing type of price trend, traders are buying into this dip and attempting to drive price upward on expectations of a growing global economy. Time will tell how things play out - but my longer-term modeling systems are still Bearish. I will be on the road with my father today - so I'm not going to be as available to answer questions. Watch this video twice if you need to. It will be interesting to see how the next 5+ days in the markets play out. As I stated, I'm not 100% accurate all the time. I do my best to try to help guide all of you through these market trends with my research and cycle patterns - but, that is not enough to guarantee 100% accuracy on any trade. That's just how it is in the world. No one is 100% perfect at predicting market moves. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
20
Dollar Doomsayers Are Dead Wrong: Why USD Will Crush It in 2025.Road To a Million fam! It’s your boy, back from the wilderness after a hiatus that felt longer than a bear market in a crypto crash. I’m pumped to be here, ready to drop some truth bombs, dissect the markets, and—most importantly—help us all make some serious bank. Buckle up, because there’s a ton to unpack, and we’re diving headfirst into the biggest elephant in the room: the U.S. dollar (USD). Spoiler alert: it’s not dead, it’s not even close to dead, and anyone saying otherwise is probably shorting it while crying into their latte. Let’s get into it! The Dollar Drama: What’s the Deal? If you’ve been anywhere near a financial newsfeed in 2025, you’ve heard the doomsday choir singing, “The dollar is done! Kaput! Finito!” The Dollar Index (DXY) is down 8% this year, and the Twitter (sorry, X) finance bros are out here proclaiming the end of the greenback’s reign as the world’s reserve currency. They’re screaming about de-dollarization, BRICS taking over, and gold mooning like it’s 1971. Meanwhile, I’m over here sipping my coffee, looking at the charts, and laughing. Why? Because the dollar’s obituary is the most exaggerated piece of fan fiction since Twilight. Let’s cut through the noise and get to the meat. The USD has taken a beating, sure, but an 8% drop in a year doesn’t mean it’s packing its bags and moving to the Bahamas. The dollar is still the king of global trade, the backbone of international commerce, and the currency you need if you’re, say, India buying oil from Saudi Arabia. No one’s trading rupees for barrels, folks. They’re selling rupees, buying dollars, and getting that black gold. That’s the reality, and it’s not changing anytime soon. So, why the panic? Why is everyone acting like the dollar’s about to be replaced by Dogecoin or a shiny new BRICS coin? Let’s break it down, roast the naysayers, and then talk about how we’re gonna make money off this drama. Because, let’s be real, that’s why you’re here. Why the Dollar’s Down (But Not Out) First, let’s address why the DXY is down 8% in 2025. The Dollar Index, for those new to the game, measures the USD against a basket of major currencies—56% euros, plus some GBP, JPY, CHF, CAD, AUD, and a sprinkle of others. It’s like a currency Thunderdome: one dollar enters, a bunch of others try to take it down. When the DXY drops, it means the USD is weakening relative to these currencies. But why? Interest Rate Shenanigans: Central banks are the puppet masters of forex markets, and their interest rate moves are like plot twists in a soap opera. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.25–4.5% on December 18, 2024, signaling a slightly dovish stance. Meanwhile, the Eurozone slashed its rate to 2.25% on April 17, 2025. That’s a 2% differential in favor of the U.S., which is huge in forex land. But the market’s been spooked by the Fed’s cut, thinking it’s the start of a softening cycle, while other central banks (like the ECB) are also cutting, creating a weird global rate limbo. Inflation Tug-of-War: Inflation in the U.S. is at 2.4%, while the Eurozone’s at 2.2%. That means U.S. investors are getting a real return of about 2% (4.25% interest minus 2.4% inflation), while Eurozone investors are basically breaking even (2.25% minus 2.2% inflation). Money flows where it’s treated best, and right now, the U.S. is the VIP lounge. But short-term traders are freaking out over inflation fears and potential rate cuts, which has pressured the USD. Trump’s Tariff Tantrums: Oh, Donald. The man’s back in the White House, tweeting (X-ing?) up a storm about “Making America Great Again” with tariffs left, right, and center. His trade war threats—10–20% tariffs on imports, 60% on Chinese goods—have markets jittery. A stronger dollar could make U.S. exports pricier, so some traders are betting on a weaker USD to balance things out. Spoiler: I think they’re wrong, and I’ll explain why later. De-Dollarization Hype: The BRICS bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and friends) has been pushing for a non-USD trade system, with talks of a new currency or gold-backed system. This has fueled the “dollar is doomed” narrative. But let’s be real: a BRICS coin? Good luck getting China and India to agree on anything, let alone a unified currency. And gold? It’s ripping higher (more on that later), but it’s not replacing the USD for global trade anytime soon. So, yeah, the dollar’s been punched in the face a few times this year. But it’s like Rocky Balboa—it’s taken worse beatings and still comes out swinging. The question is: Is this the end of the dollar’s dominance, or is it just warming up for a comeback? Let’s look at the big picture. The Dollar Ain’t Going Anywhere (Here’s Why) Listen up, because this is where I get on my soapbox and preach. The dollar is not dead. It’s not even on life support. If anything, it’s doing push-ups in the gym, getting ready to flex on the haters. Here’s why I’m so bullish on the USD, and why you should be too. 1. The Reserve Currency Superpower The USD is the world’s reserve currency, and that’s not just a fancy title—it’s a superpower. Over 88% of global transactions (SWIFT data, 2024) are settled in USD. When Russia wants to sell gas to China, they often price it in dollars. When Brazil buys soybeans from Argentina, guess what? Dollars. Even countries with beef against the U.S. (looking at you, Iran) hold USD reserves because it’s the only currency universally accepted for trade. Why does this matter? Because every country needs USD to play in the global sandbox. India’s not paying Canada for oil in rupees. They’re converting to USD or dipping into their dollar reserves. This creates constant demand for the greenback, and that demand isn’t vanishing overnight. Could it fade in a decade? Maybe. But in 2025? No chance. And let’s talk alternatives. Bitcoin? Ha! It’s a speculative asset, not a stable currency for trade. Gold? It’s mooning (up 25% in 2025, per Bloomberg), but you’re not paying for a tanker of crude with gold bars. A BRICS currency? Good luck getting 10+ countries with conflicting agendas to agree on a logo, let alone a monetary policy. The USD’s reserve status is a fortress, and it’s not crumbling anytime soon. 2. Interest Rate Domination Let’s talk money—specifically, where it flows. The U.S. has a Fed funds rate of 4.25–4.5%, while the Eurozone’s at 2.25%. That’s a 2% gap, which is like the Grand Canyon in forex terms. If you’re an investor, where are you parking your cash? In the U.S., where you’re earning a 2% real return (4.25% minus 2.4% inflation), or in the Eurozone, where you’re getting a big fat zero (2.25% minus 2.2% inflation)? This is why the Eurozone’s in trouble. The ECB’s stuck in a trap—low rates to prop up struggling economies like Spain and Italy, but that makes the euro less attractive. Meanwhile, the U.S. is the cool kid at the party, attracting capital like moths to a flame. And don’t forget: the Eurozone’s a mess of 20 countries with one monetary policy but wildly different fiscal policies. Spain’s productivity isn’t Germany’s, no matter what the ECB pretends. The euro’s gonna weaken against the USD, mark my words. 3. Trump’s Dollar Rocket Fuel Love him or hate him, Trump’s policies are about to light a fire under the USD. His “America First” agenda includes bringing manufacturing back to the U.S., which means building factories from scratch. Those factories need raw materials—steel, copper, you name it. And guess what currency they’ll use to buy that stuff? Ding, ding, ding—USD! Plus, Trump’s tariffs (10–20% on imports, 60% on China, per Reuters) will reduce U.S. imports, meaning fewer dollars flowing out of the country. But foreign countries still need USD to repay their dollar-denominated debts (global USD debt is $13 trillion, per the BIS). Less USD supply, same demand? That’s a recipe for a stronger dollar. Trump’s shaking markets like a toddler with a snow globe, but in this case, it’s bullish for the USD. 4. Contrarian Goldmine Here’s a little trading wisdom: when everyone’s screaming the same thing, they’re usually wrong. Right now, 99% of the finance world (or at least the loud ones on X) is saying the dollar’s toast. That kind of extreme sentiment is a red flag. Markets love to screw over the crowd, and when everyone’s shorting the USD, it means the bottom is either in or damn close. I’m calling it: the DXY’s either bottomed already or will soon, probably around 97. When sentiment’s this bearish, it’s like the market’s handing you a gift-wrapped opportunity. And I’m not about to let it pass. The Charts Don’t Lie: DXY Technical Breakdown Alright, enough macro talk—let’s get to the fun stuff: charts. I’ve been staring at these squiggly lines for 20+ years, and they’re telling me the USD’s about to go on a tear. Let’s break it down, from the big picture to the nitty-gritty. Long-Term View: The 20-Year Monthly Chart Zoom out, fam. When in doubt, zoom out. I’m looking at the DXY on a monthly chart, going back to 2005. Each candle is one month, and the trend is crystal clear: up. The DXY’s been cruising in an ascending channel for two decades, like a train chugging along at 200 miles an hour. Sure, it’s hit some bumps—2008, 2011, 2020—but the direction’s undeniable. Right now, the DXY’s sitting around 100, down from its 2024 highs. But it’s still within that bullish channel. I’m drawing trendlines here: a lower trendline connecting the lows (around 97–98) and an upper trendline around 120–125. The price is hugging the lower end, which screams “buying opportunity” to me. My big-picture call? The DXY’s heading to 115–117 by late 2026 or early 2027, maybe even sooner (Jan 2026, anyone?). Why? Because a 20-year trend doesn’t reverse overnight. The dollar’s not dying—it’s just taking a breather before the next leg up. If you disagree, hit the comments. Let’s duke it out. Short-Term View: The 4-Hour Chart Now, let’s zoom in to the 4-hour chart for the past couple of months. The short-term trend’s been down, no question—DXY’s been sliding like a kid on a waterslide. But here’s where it gets juicy: I’m seeing a textbook inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. For the newbies, that’s a bullish reversal pattern, and it’s already played out like a charm. Pattern Breakdown: The left shoulder formed in early April, the head hit a low around April 10, and the right shoulder wrapped up by April 21. The neckline (resistance) was around 99.8–100, and guess what? The DXY broke it like a champ. Trendline Break: On top of that, the DXY smashed through a short-term downtrend line, confirming the bullish vibes. RSI Divergence: Check the Relative Strength Index (RSI). From April 10 to April 21, the price made lower lows, but the RSI was making higher lows. That’s a classic bullish divergence, screaming, “The momentum’s shifting!” We jumped in when the trendline broke, and boom—profits are rolling in. Price Targets and Trading Plan Here’s the game plan, fam. The DXY’s already broken the neckline, so we’re in. Now, we’re watching these levels: Immediate Target: 100.28 The DXY needs to close above 100.28 by the weekend (May 2–3, 2025). If it does, it’s go time. I’m telling you, go all in (responsibly, of course). This level’s key because it’s a minor resistance from prior price action. A close above it confirms the breakout. Next Target: 103–103.5 This is the big one. The 103 zone is a major inflection point—tons of price action and clutter from earlier this year. If the DXY breaks 100.28, it’s got a clear path to 103. Expect some resistance around 100.27 (a support-turned-resistance level), but once it clears that, it’s smooth sailing to 103. Probability: I’m giving this an 80% chance of heading higher, 20% chance of a pullback. Those are odds I’ll take any day. Long-Term Goal: If the DXY follows its 20-year channel, we’re looking at 115–117 by 2026–2027. That’s not a pipe dream—that’s history repeating itself. Trading Tip: We’re already positioned from the trendline break. If 100.28 breaks, scale up. If it pulls back to 97 (the lower trendline), that’s a dream buy zone. But don’t get caught in the daily noise—Trump’s tweets, CPI reports, whatever. Focus on the big picture. Gold, Tariffs, and Trump: The Side Characters I know you’re itching to talk gold, tariffs, and Trump’s wild ride. I’m saving the deep dive for another post (stay tuned!), but here’s the quick and dirty. Gold: Gold’s up 25% in 2025 (Bloomberg), and everyone’s like, “See? Dollar’s dead!” Nah, fam. Gold’s ripping because of tariff fears, geopolitical chaos, and central banks hoarding it like Smaug. It’s not a dollar killer—it’s just doing its own thing. We’ll break it down soon. Tariffs: Trump’s tariff plans (10–20% on imports, 60% on China) are shaking markets. They’ll make imports pricier, reduce USD outflows, and boost domestic demand for dollars. Bullish for USD, bearish for emerging markets. More on this later. Trump: The man’s a market wrecking ball. He’s out here calling for lower rates one day, tariffs the next, and probably tweeting about aliens by Friday. But his manufacturing push and tariff policies are USD rocket fuel. Ignore the noise—focus on the policy. Why You Should Care (And How to Profit) Look, I get it. You’re not here for a PhD in economics—you’re here to make money. So, why should you care about the USD? Because it’s the backbone of the forex market, and where the DXY goes, opportunities follow. A stronger dollar means: Forex Trades: Go long USD/EUR, USD/JPY, or even USD/CAD. The euro’s toast with that 2.25% rate, and the yen’s stuck in Japan’s low-rate purgatory (0.25%, per BOJ). Stock Market Impact: A stronger USD could pressure U.S. multinationals (exports get pricier) but boost domestic firms. Think Walmart, not Apple. Commodities: Oil and metals (priced in USD) could dip as the dollar rises. Short crude if you’re feeling spicy. Emerging Markets: Countries with USD debt (like Turkey or Argentina) are gonna feel the heat. Avoid their currencies like the plague. Here’s how we’re playing it at Edge-Forex: Long DXY: We’re in at the trendline break, scaling up if 100.28 breaks. Target 103, then 115 long-term. Risk Management: Keep stops tight below 99.5 (short-term) or 97 (long-term). Don’t bet the farm—markets love surprises. Stay Nimble: Watch for Fed signals, ECB moves, or Trump’s next X rant. We’ll adjust as needed. The Big Picture: Don’t Get Lost in the Noise I know it’s tempting to get sucked into the daily drama—Trump’s latest outburst, a hot CPI print, or some X influencer shilling a “dollar crash” thesis. But trading’s about cutting through the noise. Zoom out. Look at the 20-year DXY chart. Look at the interest rate gap. Look at the USD’s reserve status. The dollar’s not going anywhere, and it’s about to remind everyone why it’s the boss. My advice? Get out of the short-term clutter. Stop refreshing X every five minutes. Focus on the trends that matter: central bank rates, capital flows, and technical setups. The DXY’s setting up for a monster move, and we’re gonna ride it like surfers on a tsunami. Wrapping It Up: Let’s Make Some Freaking Money Alright, Edge-Forex fam, that’s the deal. The dollar’s not dead—it’s just been napping, and it’s about to wake up with a vengeance. The DXY’s forming a bottom, the charts are screaming “buy,” and the macro setup (rates, Trump, reserve status) is a bullish trifecta. We’re already positioned, and if 100.28 breaks, we’re going big. I’m back, baby, and I’m here to drop regular updates, roast the haters, and help us all stack some serious profits. Got questions? Drop ‘em in the comments. Disagree with my DXY call? Bring it on—let’s debate. Just don’t be that guy shorting the dollar while the rest of us are cashing checks. Stay tuned for the next post (gold’s getting its moment soon), and let’s make some freaking money together. Out!
TVC:DXYLong
by RoadToAMillionClub
9
GOLD market update: range locked / breakout pending🏆 Gold Market Mid-Term Update 📊 Technical Outlook Update 🏆 Market Overview ▪️broke above 3 000 USD ▪️3250 USD S/R cleared as well ▪️Tested 3500 USD key S/R ▪️Rejection at 3500 USD key S/R ▪️pullback in progress currently ▪️locked inside range trading ▪️3275/3365 usd active range ▪️break below 3245 - BEARS take over ▪️break above 3385 - BULLS take over ▪️Bulls targets - 3450/3550 USD ▪️Bears targets - 3050/3150 USD ⭐️Recommended strategy ▪️Wait for a breakout ▪️LONG/SHORT after breakout 🔥 Key Drivers to Watch 🌍 Geopolitics & Trade 🇺🇸🇨🇳 U.S.–China Tariffs: Escalation continues pushing inflation fears & gold demand 🇪🇺 EU–U.S. tariffs (25%) are further straining global trade 💵 Weaker USD = stronger gold sentiment 🕊 Russia–Ukraine Ceasefire Talks 🗓 May 9 (Victory Day): Symbolic date eyed for a possible ceasefire announcement 🇷🇺 Parade vs 🇺🇦 EU leaders visiting Kyiv — all eyes on peace prospects ☢️ U.S.–Iran Nuclear Deal 🗓 April 28: Talks in Rome 🇮🇷 Iran shows readiness — possible easing of Middle East tensions
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ProjectSyndicate
37