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Bearish drop?The Gold (XAU/USD) has rejected off the pivot and could potentially drop to the 1st support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Pivot: 3,127.89 1st Support: 3,084.91 1st Resistance: 3,146.14 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by ICmarkets
Gold/Silver Ratio Nears 100: What Does It Mean Historically?The Gold/Silver ratio is on the verge of reaching 100, an extremely rare level seen only at key historical turning points. The chart includes a 2,500-week linear regression channel, which shows that over the very long term, the ratio has been steadily rising, though at a slow pace. Occasionally, the ratio touches the 1.5 standard deviation line, and in rare, game-changing events, and sometimes it even breaks beyond that level. Here are some of the key historical turning points marked by major spikes in the Gold/Silver ratio: 1- Early 1990s: The collapse of the Soviet Union, the Gulf War, and a U.S. recession pushed the ratio to 106. It remained above 1.5 standard deviations for more than two years. 2- 2002: Following the dot-com bubble burst, the 9/11 attacks, and the Iraq War, the ratio climbed to 82.6, nearing the 1.5 deviation line. 3- 2008 Recession: The global financial crisis triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers sent the ratio to 88.50. This spike sparked a major rally in both gold and silver, lasting until 2011 when the ratio reached one of its deepest bottoms. 4- 2019: The U.S.–China trade war under Trump’s first term pushed the ratio to 93, again nearing the 1.5 deviation threshold. 5- 2020 (COVID-19 Shock): The pandemic caused one of the biggest disruptions in modern economic history. Although relatively short-lived, its impacts were severe. The Gold/Silver ratio surged to 126 , marking the highest level in modern records, possibly the highest in all of history. 6- 2024–2025 (Global Trade War?): With the U.S. imposing major tariffs on key global trading partners, this could be another historic inflection point. The full impact is still unfolding, but risks of a serious global slowdown, or even a deep recession are rising. A full-scale trade war remains a real possibility. Now, the Gold/Silver ratio is approaching 100 and nearing the 1.5 standard deviation line. It remains unclear whether this represents a powerful pair trade opportunity—"sell gold, buy silver"—or a structural breakout where the ratio stays elevated for an extended period. In either case market is showing that this is one of the rare turning point of global economy.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ftdsystem
XAUUSD M15 I Bearish ContinuationBased on the M15 chart analysis, we can see that the price could rise toward our sell entry at 3092.56, which is a pullback resistance. Our take profit will be at 3072, aligning with the 161.8% Fibo extension. The stop loss will be placed at 3120.64, a swing high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by FXCM
Gold returns to a sharp decline?Dear friends! Gold has a downward trend today, with the current price fluctuating around 3,097 dollars. The main reason is due to the tax measures of U.S. President Donald Trump, which help clarify the market trend but raise concerns about economic recession, thereby boosting the demand for USD, leading to an increase in its value, which affects gold. From a technical perspective, it is not advisable to buy at this moment, as the risk is high, and for selling, we should wait for the price to establish a clear trend. At present, it is most worth waiting for consolidation on the basis of a downward trend, as the market will sharply hit important milestones that you can build your trading strategy upon. If you find this information useful, don't forget to like and follow Gary to receive the latest updates!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Garygoldtrader
Non-Farm Payrolls – April 4: The key market driver!On Friday, April 4, 2025 at 3:30 PM EET, the U.S. Department of Labor will release one of the most anticipated macroeconomic reports — the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). This figure reflects the change in the number of jobs in the non-farm sector and is a crucial indicator of economic health. Strong numbers suggest economic expansion and may prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy, while weak data could strengthen expectations of rate cuts — impacting stocks, the U.S. dollar, bonds, and commodities. Historically, NFP reports have triggered significant market reactions, with sharp movements depending on the actual data versus expectations. Analysts forecast a moderate job gain, indicating a slowdown compared to recent months. The release comes amid uncertainty linked to new tariffs introduced by President Trump, which may affect business confidence and consumer spending. Investors are closely watching for signals on the economy’s direction and potential Federal Reserve actions. How could NFP impact the markets? • Stock market: Weak data could stoke recession fears, pressuring equities, especially in cyclical sectors. However, if seen as a reason for Fed easing, markets may rebound. • U.S. Dollar: A disappointing report might weigh on the dollar as investors adjust their rate expectations. Strong figures, on the other hand, would support USD. • Bonds: Slower job growth could drive demand for U.S. Treasuries, pushing yields lower. • Gold: In case of weak data, gold may rally as a safe haven amid rising expectations of looser monetary policy. Economists expect a job gain of around 140,000, lower than previous figures — a scenario that could increase market volatility. Get ready for big moves!
SAXO:XAUUSD
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Gold trading on April 3, 2025Market Summary: The market was shaken as Trump imposed a 10% tariff on imports, triggering fears of a trade war after China announced retaliatory measures. This sparked concerns over a potential economic downturn, pushing gold prices to record highs as the USD faced heavy selling pressure. Investors, worried about a recession, are now pricing in a 70% chance of a Fed rate cut in June. Bond yields fell as the USD remained under pressure. Meanwhile, ADP data showed 155K new jobs, but it failed to support the USD. Trading Plan: XAUUSD Buy Zone: 3082 - 3080 Stop Loss (SL): 3077 Take Profit (TP): 3085 - 3088 - 3095 - Open Wishing everyone an amazing trading day!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianCarter
XAUUSD: 3/4 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis Daily chart resistance 3200, support below 3100 Four-hour chart resistance 3170, support below 3100 One-hour chart resistance 3150, support below 3105. Gold news analysis: For weeks, Trump has been claiming that April 2 is "Liberation Day", on which the United States will introduce large-scale reciprocal tariffs that may subvert the global trade system, and plans to announce this wave of new tariffs at 4 pm Eastern Time (in the Rose Garden of the White House). According to the Washington Post, Trump's aides are considering a plan to impose tariffs of about 20% on products from almost all countries, rather than targeting certain countries or certain products. According to the newspaper, the government expects the new tariffs to bring more than 6 Trillion dollars of income, these income can be returned to Americans in the form of tax refunds. Gold operation suggestions: Gold consolidated yesterday and held the 3100 integer mark. Today, the Asian session opened and broke through. After reaching 3167.8, it began to turn downward and fell below the short-term long and short top and bottom conversion position of 3135. From the current trend analysis, the short-term support below focuses on 3100-3105 on the one-hour/four-hour/daily chart. The daily level stabilizes above this position and continues to buy at a low level. Patiently wait for the retracement to buy. Short selling can only enter the market after the key support is lost. Buy: 3120near SL:3115 Buy: 3105near SL:3099 Buy: 3100near SL:3095 For more daily sharing, please pay attention
TVC:GOLDLong
by ActuaryJ
Gold (XAU/USD) – Rising Wedge Breakdown & Bearish SetupOverview Gold (XAU/USD) has been in a strong uptrend, making consistent higher highs and higher lows. However, the price action has formed a Rising Wedge Pattern, which is typically a bearish reversal formation. This pattern suggests that the bullish momentum is weakening, and a potential sell-off could follow. The recent breakdown of the wedge structure confirms the bearish bias, and sellers are now in control. Based on price action analysis, we can anticipate further downside movement toward key support levels. 📊 Technical Analysis – Rising Wedge Breakdown 1️⃣ Understanding the Rising Wedge Pattern The Rising Wedge is a bearish pattern that occurs when the price consolidates within an upward-sloping channel but shows signs of exhaustion. Here’s how it developed: Higher Highs & Higher Lows: The price consistently formed higher peaks and troughs, indicating an uptrend. Declining Bullish Momentum: As the wedge progressed, price action became increasingly squeezed, showing reduced bullish strength. Breakout Confirmation: Once the lower trendline of the wedge was breached, it confirmed that buyers were losing control and that sellers had stepped in. 2️⃣ Key Levels & Market Structure 🔵 Resistance Level: The upper boundary of the wedge around $3,150 - $3,163 acted as a supply zone, where sellers pushed prices lower. 🟠 Support Level: The lower boundary of the wedge, around $3,100 - $3,120, initially provided demand but eventually failed to hold. 🔻 Breakdown Confirmation: The price broke below the wedge, which is a strong bearish signal. 🎯 Trade Setup & Strategy 3️⃣ Bearish Trading Plan Given the breakdown of the wedge pattern, the setup favors a short (sell) trade. Here’s how to approach it: 📉 Sell Entry: The ideal short position is initiated after a confirmed break of the wedge’s support level. 📍 Stop Loss (SL): A tight stop-loss is placed above the previous resistance at $3,163.67, ensuring risk is controlled if the trade goes against the bias. 🎯 Take Profit (TP) Targets: TP 1: $3,080.66 – First major support level, where buyers might step in temporarily. TP 2: $3,057.33 – Extended downside target, offering a greater risk-to-reward ratio. 4️⃣ Additional Price Expectations Retest of the Wedge Breakdown: The price may pull back to the broken wedge support before continuing downward. Stronger Bearish Momentum: If selling pressure remains strong, price could fall even lower, breaking TP 2. Invalidation Level: If price climbs above $3,163, the wedge breakdown would be invalidated, signaling that bulls have regained control. 📌 Conclusion & Market Sentiment 🔹 Rising Wedge Breakdown Signals Further Downside – The market structure suggests that sellers are gaining control. 🔹 Sell Setup with Risk-Managed Approach – With a defined stop-loss and two profit targets, this trade offers a favorable risk-to-reward setup. 🔹 Gold’s Short-Term Bearish Outlook – The chart confirms a potential correction, and price may drop towards $3,080 and $3,057 if the bearish momentum continues. 📊 Final Thought: This is a high-probability short trade based on classic technical analysis. Traders should monitor for confirmation retests and manage risk accordingly. ✅ Would you like any refinements or additional insights? 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GoldMasterTrades
GOLD --> Increased economic risks increase interest rates.OANDA:XAUUSD the sharp increase is driven by high interest rates fueled by rapidly rising economic risks, mainly related to Trump's tariff war. For selling, risks remain very high, with stock market and cryptocurrency declines only adding to interest in this metal. The market is seeking safety in traditional value storage channels amid speculation surrounding US President Donald Trump's tax plans on "Liberation Day", April 2. With the WSJ reporting that Trump may impose global tariffs of up to 20% on most US trading partners. This could increase inflationary and stagflationary pressures, weakening the dollar and US Treasury bond yields, supporting gold prices. This week, all eyes are on Trump's speech on Wednesday, PMI data, non-farm payrolls report and Powell's speech. Technically, selling is not recommended at this time due to high risks - for buying, we should wait for price corrections to key support levels. Emphasizing the key point that we are not talking about any trend reversals at this time. It's worth waiting for local corrections or consolidation, the market will mark important levels, liquidity zones or imbalances where you can build trading strategies. Gold will continue rising due to strongly increasing risks.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AdrianBennett
2
Gold --> Consolidation before the news. Increase trendOANDA:XAUUSD entering a strong growth phase after a false breakout from support as part of the correction process. The previous high at 3127 is now acting as a robust support for buyers. Strong news is about to be released... Fundamentally, the market is shifting towards defensive assets amid speculation from the WSJ that Trump is considering imposing global tariffs of up to 20% on most of the United States' trading partners while rejecting plans to scale back tariffs. This could create inflationary pressure and stagnation, weakening the dollar and bond yields, thus supporting gold prices. Central banks and investors continue to build positions in gold, but there may be some adjustments before the announcement of tariffs and the release of U.S. economic data. Theoretically, any reaction to U.S. data is likely to be short-lived, as the main event risk on the so-called 'Liberation Day' is Trump's major tariff revelation. The strong resistance level is at 3135. A breakout and consolidation above this level would foster continued growth. However, given the upcoming news, gold may test the area of interest and liquidity between 3025-3020 before further advancing.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AdrianBennett
Gold Market and the Impact of Trump’s Tariff PolicyAs global economic uncertainty intensifies and gold prices hit record highs, investors are seeking safe-haven assets. After several rounds of market turmoil, investors have recovered somewhat in Asian markets this week. In the coming week, the focus will be on the reciprocal tariff plan that Trump will announce on April 2. If Trump decides to take tough measures and implement high tariffs across the board, it may have a big impact on the market. However, if there is some relaxation of tariff policies, such as tax exemptions for specific countries, then the market may have a chance to rebound. Trump was proud of Wall Street's record highs during his first term, but now seems to be less concerned about the stock market and more focused on the adjustment of overall economic policies. I think this may be the time to make structural changes to the US economy, although these adjustments may bring challenges in the short term, but the hope is that the economy will recover before the mid-term elections next year. In addition, Asian stock markets have also been affected by volatility, especially the automotive industries in Japan and South Korea are under pressure. The automotive manufacturing industries in these countries face the challenge of change due to the upcoming 25% tariffs. Investors are full of doubts about Trump's tariff policy, and market sentiment is cautious, and all parties are waiting for the policy announcement on April 2. In conclusion, although the market has rebounded in the short term, future trends still need to focus on Trump’s tariff decisions and their potential impact on the global economy.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Giant-Whale
Has gold entered a downward channel?Gold ended its continuous rise. The daily chart was blocked and fell back, falling to 3100. Technically, the gold price is still above 3078/3095 of MA7 and 5-day moving average. At the same time, MA10/7-day moving average still remains open upward, and the price is running on the upper track of the Bollinger Band. The short-term four-hour moving average narrowed, and the price was running near the MA10-day moving average at 3123. The price retreated to the middle track of the Bollinger Band at 3101/3104. The RSI indicator turned downward after touching the overbought value above 80 yesterday. The hourly moving average is glued together, and the price returns to the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Band. Gold is expected to continue to expand its operating range during the day. It is recommended to buy at a low level after the correction and be cautious in chasing the rise. Consider selling after the key resistance level or historical high. Once Trump's tariff policy is implemented, pay attention to the high and low prices in the gold and silver market, which may usher in a substantial downward adjustment. On the contrary, if Trump continues to announce new tariff policies on the basis of the original tariff policy, gold needs to pay attention to triggering risk aversion and causing a sharp rise or a record high again. Gold surged higher in the US market yesterday and is stagnant. Bulls are under short-term pressure and may enter an adjustment cycle. In the short-term, gold is expected to fall and adjust! Yesterday, gold rose first and then fell, rising to 3149 and then falling. The European market fluctuated narrowly. From the technical indicators, the 2-hour moving average has formed a dead cross, MACD dead cross and large volume, and the Bollinger band closed. The US market continued to decline after the shock, and currently fell below the 3120 intraday watershed. In the short term, it means that the bulls have temporarily come to an end and started to retrace and adjust. After yesterday's retracement, today's Asian market quickly rose to 3135.7. With the increase in volume on the hourly chart, it corrected the decline with 3150 as the high point. The fluctuation range was large and the adjustment speed was fast. The current position is too risky to chase the rise. Although shorting is against the trend, the implementation of technically overbought tariffs will also be realized, and there will be more room for profit-taking and downward adjustments. Buying and selling opportunities coexist. Key points: First support: 3115, second support: 3102, third support: 3093 First resistance: 3138, second resistance: 3150, third resistance: 3200 Operation ideas: Buy; 3110-3113, SL: 3102, TP: 3140-3150; Sell; 3143-3145, stop SL: 3154, TP: 3120-3110;
TVC:GOLDShort
by Jun-GoldAnalyst