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Goldbear

GOLD ATH TAKEN - BEARISH TREND INCOMING!?This week's outlook on gold is intriguing given its recent high volatility and activity, reaching all-time highs. With liquidity now absorbed to the upside, I anticipate a shift in price direction towards the downside. This could signify the exhaustion of bullish momentum and the formation of a Wyckoff distribution pattern. In response, I'll be observing for a pullback, although there aren't any valid supply zones yet. Instead, I'll wait for price to retrace to a demand zone, providing an opportunity to buy back up towards a new supply zone. While my bias remains bullish for now, I'm prepared for a minor pullback before considering potential selling opportunities. Confluences for GOLD Sells are as follows: - Bullish pressure is getting exhausted and I anticipate a wyckoff distribution to occur soon. - ATH was taken which is a very strong point of liquidity which is enough to see a shift in trend. - Price has left lots of imbalances below in which price needs to fill. - There parabolic movement to the upside requires a pullback which hasn't yet occurred. - Lots of liquidity below like asian lows that need to get taken as well. P.S. Once price shifts its behavior on the higher time frame and breaks structure to the downside, I'll be more inclined to pursue selling opportunities and align my trades with the prevailing trend. However, for the time being, we should anticipate price consolidation and a gradual decrease in bullish momentum.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Hassan_fx
3
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT! (Weekly)In our last monthly chart update (linked below) we showed you the larger structure and the levels to look for. We mentioned that breaking above the 1835 will result in the price going to test the higher resistance levels and potentially the top of the trend. This level here is the last resistance level for bears to defend if this is to go anywhere below the 1835 level in the months ahead. So now lets look at the weekly chart to get a longer term view of potential movement on Gold in the coming weeks/months. We can see the potential triangle which has broken to the upside with an engulfing candle and out of the range we had been trading in for the last couple of months. What we need to keep an eye on here is the next weekly candle, do we get another bullish candle closing above the support regions which have been illustrated on the chart? We have plotted in the weekly zones which show what you need to look for, breaks and close above or below levels! If we to speak technically on this chart then we would be looking for a 25-50% retracement on last weeks bullish candle, if we only get 25% or less there is still enough volume in the markets to drive this higher. In any case, most scenarios of trend and level breaks entail some form of retest. So are levels below here are 1850 which is a psychological level and below that the 1830-35 price region which we have said on numerous occasions has been used to propel the price in either direction. Below is the monthly chart we have been using to keep us in the right direction coupled with Excalibur. Please have a look at our previous post on the simple trading strategy. You can apply the same concept to the Weekly chart and look for the break and close of candle above/below weekly support and resistance levels. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
GOLD MASSIVE SHORT|THE MAGIC OF NUMBERS Gold is trading in a reverse triangle/opening wedge, near the ultimate 1800 level. Even if not fundamentally significant, 1800 level is psychologically important. A big round number and also the previous resistance area. Thus, while not implying that gold will collapse(so don't bark at me, local gold bugs), I am expecting a correction, that is due, and the best strategic level for entry is 1800. The uptrend support line is far below and a return to it, will simply be a bullish signal. The Stop loss here is utterly arbitrary, and accounts for that such massive resistance is an area not a line, and that some fake breakout is possible too. Thank you for reading, like and subscribe and have a great day!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ProSignalsFx
1
Gold Getting Ready to Disappoint InvestorsI can tell by the title I wrote that gold bugs are already pissed off. Long story short, I think gold (and silver) will go further down in value. I first want to start by saying I love precious metals including gold, but I don't think this scenario is going to play out the way any sane person would think. That's why you have me, completely lacking all sanity. Lol. Any decent gold bug would be laughing their asses off right now trying to understand how I could think gold could go even FURTHER down in value. All the central banks printing fiat money like mad men. The eminent stock and housing market crash. The ever dwindling trust of the people in their government. How could all of these add up to a lower gold price yet again? If you want my fundamental reasons why, you can read my article on Steemit or AssetGuild.com ... On TradingView, we'll stick strictly to TA... Let's get into the meat and potatoes. To be clear, I am about 70/30 for a bearish continuation of gold and other precious metals in general. The price of Gold reached an ATH in 2011 at about $1900. Since then, price as been beaten down to lows of $1050. Now we are in this range supported within a long term wedge that gets tighter as the weeks go on. There is only so much time before a big move comes. The Bear Case: In my opinion, gold entered bear market territory when price broke below the 100 and 200 MA. We saw a run down to $1050, then a run up to $1835. This was claimed to be the "new bull market" by many. Since then, price had played into this wedge pattern that we've been in for years now and is giving mixed signals with it's moving averages. Price is now testing the 200 MA after breaking through the 100 MA which leads me to believe there will likely be a rejection here. Why? because it's the opposite of what everyone wants. Further more, breaking above the 200 MA signals the exiting of a bear market. And if we were truly in a bear market, we would need to fulfill one important category on my radar: The RSI. We have yet to see an oversold condition in the monthly RSI. It happens for nearly every asset class in past bear market including for gold. I have targets for $1,000 gold over the next few years and $735 gold in the most bearish situation. The biggest thing to keep an eye on is this long term wedge pattern the gold price is in. We have consistently bounced within this wedge creating a coiling action in price. The end result is going to be a big move in one direction or the other. What most investors expect is a great performance by gold, but I can't help but think the opposite will happen. In the long term, we are still in a corrective bear market. Meaning people bullish on gold will continue to be disappointed until they run out of capital. That's where the oversold condition on the RSI helps us out. Though, it might be many years before we see anything like that. The Case for the Bulls I am pretty certain the scenario I've described above is the most likely, but there is always the chance I end up being wrong. Any investor/trader is foolish to say they are always right. So what do the bulls have going for them? Well that trend line supporting price in that great big wedge has held support for a longer time than gold has even been in this bear market. There is a chance that it is given greater respect. From a technical standpoint, that is the only long-term signal to me that I could be wrong on this. If you have any analysis on price, please share your link below. I am more than open to take a look. I am not permanently biased. Just biased until I'm proven wrong. Overall, I think a bull market in gold would be giving precious metals investors exactly what they want. Big money interests are still looking to accumulate the metal, and they would love nothing more than to accumulate it at a cheaper price. From an economic standpoint, we are still tightening in the US. Meaning interest rates are going up and are becoming more attractive to investors, the US dollar is getting strong and inflation is DECREASING. Gold does not historically consistently perform well during deflation, especially when it's no longer used as a global currency. Strong Dollar = Weak Gold Thanks for stopping by!
COMEX:GC1!Short
by micahjmiller
3
Gold - A potential bearish scenario"Bottoms in the investment world don´t end with four-year lows; they end with 10- or 15-year lows." - Jim Rogers "The one who wants to protect his fortune doesn´t believe in anything but plans for everything." - Amschel Mayer Rothschild Although its way too early for confirmation I thought it´s time to lay out a theoretical bearish scenario to make sure we are prepared for everything. In this case gold would move back towards $1,025 and make new lows..!!! But let me explain: The 330$ rally since December 2015 has seen an important high at $1,262, an important low at $1,200 and another important high at $1,375. The weakness in gold since last week´s sell off is obvious. Should gold continue to slide lower it will very likely find a bottom somewhere around $1,210 - $1,220 followed by a sharp recovery towards $1,295 - $1,300. In that case we would have most of the ingredients for a bearish head and shoulder pattern if gold fails at the strong resistance around $1,300. If gold then comes all the way back down to the $1,200 neckline the pattern will get more and more obvious. A break through $1,200 finally will confirm the pattern and activate a price target at $1,025 based on the pattern height of $175. What would increase the odds for this theoretical bearish scenario? - Gold below $1,220 would shift the bigger picture (see Midas Touch Model) - Gold continues the current sell off down to the neckline around $1,200 - Gold does not move back above $1,300 within the next 1-3 months - Gold is breaking through the neckline at $1,200 (pattern confirmation) - Gold is moving below $1,170 (= retracement larger than 61.8% of $330) How can we make money in this scenario? 1. Buy gold around $1,200 - $1,220 and sell into the recovery around $1,295 2. Sell gold short around $1,295 with a stopp above $1,325 and hold this short-position until $1,025... As already stated this is a theoretical scenario and should be understood as a backup plan.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by MidasTouchConsulting
11