3 Cups - Gold BullishThere's about a roughly, umm, 0% chance they raise rates in March.
Nice try grandma.
Goldbugs
Gold - 1220 SupportWe have had 2 strong bounces off the 1220 area, with both bounces hitting above 1230.
It must be noted that the level we got rejected at (1240), is the bottom of the past low we made in October. It appears that passing this level is the gateway to 1280.
It will be interesting to see if gold even bothers retesting 1220 again in the next few days, rather than attempting to make new high. I will also be paying attention to grandma's speech today, and seeing if she strengthens the USD.
Gold longRe-longed gold on Friday, 1W and 1D both still look very healthy for bulls.
Cross on 1W MACD, with the 5EMA looking to cross through the 50/100EMA.
We saw a big bounce off 1220 on Friday which served as strong support and reassures me of my long position.
NOVAGOLD looking attractive longtermWith Gold looking longterm bullish, I think gold stocks are going to do really well. I think this is a good stock which may offer near 100% return from its 3rd wave extension. A play past 5.25 seems like a serious possibility.
Gold DirectionAs I posted in my prior idea, I sold my gold position this morning when the DXY started to rally.
I am still long-term bull with gold, however it is clear to me that this move wants to retest the 1220 area as this was significant resistance over the past few weeks. There's currently a bearish engulfing on the 1D chart, and the MACD is looking to test a break back down. Furthermore, the golden cross that we got this week, looks like it wants to retest the 100 EMA.
I am currently holding a short position from 1237, and will be looking to re-enter long off a bounce from the 1210-1220 area.
Gold still has bull momentum, and is still within the trend-line (both price and RSI). On top of that, the Fed isn't going to raise rates in March, so my long-term opinion on gold hasn't changed.
Gold hypeGold seems to be picking up steam again. The media and pundits are eating up the hype but this usually calls for concern over time.
Gold looking to test 1250Today we got further confirmation of a golden-cross with gold, and even though we had a slight hiccup intra-day spurred by a USD bond sale, we closed above 1240 and made new highs for this run.
TNX is struggling to maintain above water, and it's RSI has been trending down since it's run up in November. We could potentially see a death cross as it's 5EMA makes it's way through it's 50EMA. Once it breaks trend I'm expecting a waterfall here, and the MACD is supporting this notion.
I'm not going to change my mind on my bullishness of gold as long as these technical factors remain in place. I will sell as soon as the climate changes, which may not be for a little while.
Golden cross on gold, death cross on DXYLast week was substantial for both gold and the DXY. Gold was able to close above it's 100EMA, and above the key psychological level of 1220, and DXY closed below the key psychological level of 100, and it's 100 EMA. This will prove to be bullish for gold, and bearish for the DXY.
Looking at the 5 and 100EMA for both gold and DXY, we can see that gold's 5 is looking to cross through above the 100EMA (golden cross), and DXY's 100 is crossing through above it's 5EMA (death cross).
If these EMA trading patterns hold true, we should see a continued bull run for gold, and a continued bear run for DXY.
5EMA - Orange
50EMA - Green
100EMA - Red
Gold - Cup and handle continuedSo it looks like my cup and handle idea played out well.
We are making higher highs, and lower lows, which is very bullish for gold, yet we are having resistance at the 100 EMA. Once this is cleared, we should move up rather quickly.
I believe with 99.99% certainty NFP will beat tomorrow, which will cause an initial drop in gold, but due to the fact that gold rallied after the ADP numbers, and the fact that the two reports are so closely linked, I believe this drop will be bought up before close.
B2GOLDI have started accumulating my medium-term position in this stock once it broke the down-trend started in August of 2016.
I am looking to add on a dip over the next few days (which there should be one), however I am playing this from a more aggressive standpoint. If you're a more passive investor, wait for a clean break and close above the key $4 level which has proven to be resistance for a year now.
The USD version of this stock is BTG.
Cup and handle - GoldI'm still in this gold long, and thankfully was able to add to my position got ABX and SSRI on the way down last week.
Small sell-offs like last week are very common during a baby bull, people tend to get nervous when they see some selling, which adds fuel to these sell offs. The best advice I can give is to review your charts, and trust in your analysis, whether you're bull or bear.
ABX Bull ChannelLook for strong resistance at the $25.40 area, with retesting the bottom of the channel.
This has broken out of the bearish trend from August of 2016, with RSI trending up (clear bull divergence here).
The next leg up in goldThis is the year we see a strong break through that resistance level established in 2011.
RSI trending up with bull divergence since 2013. I see a 2016 clone-type move for 2017.
Will we pause/drop $20 every $80 gain? Yes. But do not confuse consolidation with a bear. The bear market ended in January of 2016.
This is a long-term trade.
Consolidation in gold?It looks like gold has begun to consolidate a bit before it's next leg up.
I went long again with a medium sized position on Thursday, and will be looking to add to my position every time this dips closer to the red band on my chart.
This will be the year of gold imo, and I will be long all year.
Continue to long gold.RSI has been trending up since 2013, making higher highs, and lower lows.
This is paired with my other ideas.
Gold 1M outlookI thought it would make sense to look at the 1M chart in order to analyze gold for the longer term, based on a purely technical analysis.
The orange bar has become a resistance level since 2011, and this trend has held up to now. With that being said, both the RSI and MACD bottomed out in 2013, yet we've seen consistently lower prices since then. We also seem to have started a new bull RSI trend since this bottom as well, hitting higher lows on the RSI for each drop in price.
We look towards 2017 as the year we can finally break this orange trend-line established over 5 years ago, as the RSI and MACD are pointing us towards another re-test.
I will not only be watching the $1200 level (which has been a key transition area for years), however I will also be watching the $1270-1300 level, as this would be the retest level for the orange bar.
Gold Targets July 4th for $1400 or higherMy analysis of GOLD using Fibonacci, Gann and Tesla theories shows GOLD held at a critical Fibonacci level and is setting up for a 25%++ run to near $1400 by July 4th~14th, 2017. In reality, the move could be much higher given the range of Wave 1 - with an overall objective near 1674.
Gold - Bar Test #2Gold tested the key transition area of 1200 today and got rejected slightly.
This is still the key area we have to watch here, as a hard rejection could send us to a lower low, but a strong break could launch us to a higher high than 2016.
The next few days should be very telling for gold going forward.
(there is still bullish divergence in the RSI)
Gold Update - Red Bar TestGold seems to be itching to retest an area that was important for transition during 2016.
I am still long in miners, and it has been clear over the past week that gold has broken it's downward trend.
Depending on how my natgas trade plays out over this week, I will be taking my profits from that trade and buying any dips in gold.
Stepping back - 2017 gold tradeI have been long miners since November 14th, and am currently only down a few percent. I am by no means a scalper, so keep that in mind when you view this idea.
There is a strong bull RSI divergence on the 1W chart, as illustrated above. (the divergence from the 1D chart is still there, however I am taking a step back with this idea). I think we have almost bottomed out on the MACD.
This tiny interest rate raise means virtually nothing. You don't raise interest rates only 0.25% if you believe the U.S economy is healthy. We're currently sitting at a lower interest rate level then when they were dropped to 1% after 911 (a huge crises). I'm calling bs on the 3 rate rises during fiscal 2017.
I believe we will see a strong rally at the beginning of January, and this will only continue when the Fed does not raise rates during 2017.
We will see 1400-1500 in the first half of 2017.
BULLISH DIVERGENCE IN GOLDI believe there is currently a strong bullish divergence in the RSI and MACD.
My TP is 1250$, and I will re-evaluate gold when/if we get to that level.
We are currently making higher lows in both the MACD and RSI (while the price decreases), which leads me to believe we will see a strong up move in the following days.
My advice is to avoid listening to the gold chat too much, as people will claim 1000$ if we drop 1$, or 1400$ if we go up 1$. I would also advise to avoid listening to people who do not post charts, yet seem to be spamming the chat with nonsense all day, or the people who post charts, but continue to change their opinion/strategy every 10 seconds.
There are a lot of people on here who provide advice based off their current position (their own interests), so be careful when following others. Follow your strategy, and stick to your chart.
Goodluck.
Gold - Last stop at 1200...The big players are dumping gold after the election.
Soon to form a death cross.
When will they stop?
