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Gold: $2,025 - After US Inflation, What's Next?Gold: $2,025 - After US Inflation, What's Next? Gold's short term prospects might be dependent on upcoming US inflation data for December. XAU/USD currently trades at $2,025, stepping back from an intraday high of $2,042. On Thursday, the US will release the Consumer Price Index for December. The market is expecting a 0.3% monthly increase in Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, in line with November. If the monthly core CPI exceeds 0.5%, it could push up US yields and weigh on XAU/USD. Alternatively, a softer-than-expected CPI reading may keep expectations for a Federal Reserve policy shift alive and perhaps help keep gold above $2,020. Technically, the 4-hour chart suggests a downside risk for gold, trading below its 20 Simple Moving Average at around $2,036. Conversely, the initial resistance for XAU/USD stands at $2050, where the 50- and 100-day SMAs are converging. The daily high on January 5 at $2063.98 might be the next level to keep an eye on to the upside.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
GOLD WILL FLY 🕊️ 💸 TILL 2065Gold price (XAU/USD) dived to a one-and-half-week low on Wednesday in the wake of rising US Treasury bond yields and a stronger US Dollar (USD). The US bond yields, however, started losing traction after minutes of the December 12-13 FOMC meeting reflected a consensus among policymakers that inflation is under control and concerns about the downside risks to the economy associated with an overly restrictive stance. This, along with a softer risk tone, allowed the precious metal to attract some buyers near the $2,030 area and gains some follow-through traction on Thursday.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FxJohnson
GOLD BUY Weak Economic Data UpcomingDear Traders, Gold tends to react to weak economic data and potential shifts in interest rates for several reasons: Hedge Against Economic Uncertainty: Gold is often considered a safe-haven asset. When economic data indicates weakness, such as low GDP growth, rising unemployment, or sluggish consumer spending, it can signal economic instability. Investors turn to gold as a store of value during uncertain times, which increases demand and consequently its price. Inverse Relationship with Interest Rates: Gold doesn't yield interest or dividends like bonds or stocks. Therefore, when interest rates are high, the opportunity cost of holding gold, a non-interest-bearing asset, is greater. Conversely, when interest rates decrease or are expected to decrease, the opportunity cost of holding gold diminishes, making it relatively more attractive. Hence, the anticipation of a pivot towards lower interest rates can drive up demand for gold. Currency Depreciation Hedge: Gold is priced in US dollars globally. When interest rates are cut, the relative value of the currency can decline. Lower interest rates can lead to inflationary pressures or a weaker currency, making gold more appealing as a hedge against potential currency depreciation. Market Speculation and Sentiment: Markets often react based on expectations and speculation. If there's a strong anticipation of interest rate cuts due to weak economic data, investors might proactively position themselves in gold as a precautionary measure, anticipating its value to increase, thereby driving up demand and price. Central Bank Actions: Central banks often use interest rate adjustments to manage inflation, stimulate economic growth, or mitigate economic downturns. Gold tends to respond positively to central bank decisions that signal economic concerns or policies intended to support economic recovery, which can fuel increased demand. Therefore, in anticipation of weak economic data and an impending pivot towards lower interest rates, investors might seek refuge in gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty, potential currency devaluation, and as an alternative store of value, all of which can drive up demand and subsequently increase the price of gold. Greetings, ZTrades
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ZILATRADES
XAUUSD BUY LIKE WE SAIDDear Traders, let's break this down: Impending Weak US Data: If there's an expectation of weak economic data in the US, such as low job growth, poor GDP figures, or other economic indicators showing a slowdown, it could signal an economic downturn. In such scenarios, investors tend to move towards safe-haven assets like gold. This shift occurs because gold is seen as a store of value during times of uncertainty or economic instability. When investors lose confidence in other assets like stocks or currencies, they often turn to gold as a more stable option. Expected Rate Cut of the Dollar: A potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve weakens the US dollar. When interest rates decrease, the currency tends to devalue against other currencies. A weaker dollar makes it cheaper for holders of other currencies to purchase dollar-denominated assets like gold. This increased purchasing power can drive up demand for gold, subsequently increasing its price. Gold as a Hedge: Gold is considered a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. When investors anticipate a weakening dollar due to rate cuts or other monetary policy actions, they often seek to protect their wealth by investing in gold. This demand for gold increases its price. Market Sentiment and Perception: Expectations and sentiments in the market heavily influence the price of gold. If investors perceive weak US economic data and a potential rate cut as detrimental to the dollar's strength, they might view gold as a safe-haven asset. This sentiment-driven demand can further drive up the price of gold. In summary, the combination of weak US economic data and the anticipation of a dollar rate cut can weaken confidence in the dollar and other traditional assets, prompting investors to seek safer alternatives like gold. This increased demand for gold, driven by its perceived stability and value during uncertain times, tends to push its price higher. Greetings, ZTRADES
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ZILATRADES
Looking to break fast highWe're looking for Gold to push up heights from Friday December 29th 2023 (7am EST) which was the short term latest high and we are looking for the candle to close above that area. The previous time during Friday failed to break that area despite multiple attempts to break on a 30m. I am looking for a close over our zone which is currently acting as a resistance area and as a confirmation i would like price to close above 2068.85. Very short term trade to potentially target 2070.74
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by Trellz_
Gold Buy Confirm Chart Gold price is finding additional support, as the US Dollar meets fresh supply from a risk-on rally in the Asian stock markets. Investors cheer expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) next year and pile up on global stocks. Further, China’s pledge to promote stable growth by expanding domestic demand combined with the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) liquidity injections boost risk appetite at the expense of the US Dollar.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FxJohnson
1
GOLD BUY ASIAN SESSION HERE IS WHYDear ZTraders, Gold prices and interest rates often have an inverse relationship. When central banks signal impending rate cuts, it typically implies that they're trying to stimulate economic growth by making borrowing cheaper. Here's how this can impact gold prices: Lower Opportunity Cost: When interest rates decrease, the cost of holding cash or bonds increases because they offer lower returns. Gold, which doesn’t yield interest, becomes more attractive in comparison. Investors might shift their funds from low-yield interest-bearing assets to gold, boosting its demand and thus its price. Inflation Hedge: Rate cuts are often employed to combat economic slowdowns or to spur borrowing and spending. This can lead to an increase in inflationary pressures. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation. Investors might flock to gold as a store of value to protect their wealth against potential inflation, thereby driving up its price. Weakened Currency: Lower interest rates can weaken a country's currency as investors seek higher returns elsewhere. As a result, the value of the currency may decrease relative to gold, making gold more expensive in that currency. This can lead to an increase in gold prices in that particular country. Safe-Haven Appeal: In uncertain economic times, gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset. When rate cuts signal potential economic instability or uncertainty, investors may seek the safety of gold, increasing its demand and price. However, it's important to note that while there's often a correlation between rate cuts and gold prices, many other factors influence gold's value, such as geopolitical tensions, overall market conditions, supply and demand dynamics, and movements in the currency markets. Therefore, while rate cuts might influence gold prices, they aren't the sole determinants. As always, the relationship between interest rates and gold prices can vary based on specific economic conditions and investor sentiment, so it's not a foolproof indicator but rather one among many factors to consider when analyzing gold markets. Greetings, ZTRADES
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ZILATRADES
GOLD BUY CONFIRM ANALYSIS FOR TODAY Gold price is making a minor recovery attempt near $2,020 early Wednesday, replicating the move seen in Tuesday’s Asian trading. Risk sentiment appears to be in a tepid spot, underpinning the Gold price alongside a pause in the US Dollar upswing. The US Dollar has stalled its two back-to-back days of recovery even though markets have turned cautious after Moody’s Investors Service downgraded its outlook on China’s government credit ratings to negative from stable. The rating agency, however, retained China’s “A1” long-term rating on the country’s sovereign bonds.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FxJohnson
2
GOLD BUY CONFIRM ANALYSIS FOR TODAY The gold market attempted to catch its breath after a phenomenal day of trading yesterday. Registering a 5.42% round trip, the price of gold obliterated the prior swing all-time-high around $2081 only to retrace the move and end the day significantly lower. The RSI surged into overbought territory and has already recovered – highlighting the massive amount of volatility experienced yesterday. Today, however, trading has been more moderate, trading below the $2050 level but the uptrend remains well intact and well above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FxJohnson
Evaluating Gold's TrajectoryInterplay of Carney's "Failed Wave" and Elliott Wave Analysis Introduction: Is this another Gold trap? As we've observed, there have been several traps in this range, all triggered by harmonic patterns. Here we are facing another potential bearish setup. A breakout at $2,162 could signal a strong bullish trend, but there might be room for pause. Let's take a closer look. Understanding the Failed Wave: Scott Carney's "Failed Wave" concept is integral to our analysis of the gold market. This phenomenon occurs at the 1.13 Fibonacci extension level and can signal a potential market contraction and reversal if the price fails to close above it. Current Market Position: Gold’s interaction with the 1.13 extension level is under critical observation. A failure to sustain a move beyond this level might confirm the "Failed Wave," potentially initiating a bearish trend as predicted by harmonic patterns. Elliott Wave Consideration: The possibility of an Elliott Wave 5 truncation is noted, with Wave 1 starting on December 15th, 2015. Retracement zones are denoted in blue on the chart. If Gold Closes above $2162 this will start a wave 5 1.618 extension to $2370.36. Breakout Potential and Target Prices: If gold demonstrates strength by closing above the 1.13 level, it negates the "Failed Wave" scenario, potentially setting up a bullish progression. The breakout target zones are: • Intermediate Target: $2,162 (Significant resistance level) • Primary Target: $2,370.36 (1.618 Fibonacci extension) Downside Support and Target Levels: Should gold fail to maintain its momentum above the 1.13 extension, the following levels are critical: • Initial Support Level: $2,048 - Orderblock Support (A significant level) • Target 1: $1,959 - Terminal support • Target 2: $1,880 - 0.5 Fibonacci zone (Elliott retest) • Target 3: $1,812 - Harmonic T1 retest zone Trading Considerations: Traders might consider a dual approach, preparing for a "Failed Wave" with stop-losses above the 1.13 level & HOP level of $2162 at around $2190, and alternatively, considering long positions above this level targeting $2,370.36 at the 1.618 extension. Concluding Perspective: The gold market is at a significant technical juncture, with the price action near the 1.13 Fibonacci extension potentially dictating the mid to long-term market direction. The market is balancing between the potential for a "Failed Wave" and a bullish continuation towards the 1.618 Fibonacci extension target. Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Trading involves risks, and personal risk tolerance and investment objectives should be carefully considered.
TVC:GOLD
by TechChartMark
2
GOLD LOL - Heavy Manipulation on GOLD | Saw it coming days ago!Hey guys what's up Brandon here, @ekatatrading, this idea isn't to give a signal - it is more so to give my understanding of why I thought that gold could do something like this weeks ago, I will link these Tradingview ideas in this post. Sellers really didn't understand that any sell they would have taken would have been an induction, it didn't mean that you couldn't sell - it simply meant that you had to be aware that the sell would have been temporary, this is something that I would have mentioned in EVERY SINGLE POST I MADE REGARDING SELLS in any way on gold. The sell was always meant to be a short term thing on gold because again as we know - the gold market is and always has been bullish. Given the circumstances now - I highly advise against placing trades in ANY DIRECTION on gold - whether it be buys or sells, as if you just check most brokers you'd probably realize the spreads are much wider than normal and gold is easily jumping hundreds of pips in literal seconds. Not good for an entry in my professional opinion. Just imagine, other "professionals" are telling you to sell now because again they don't realize that it's still very much a heavy induction (manipulation) and here I am - just a simple guy who likes explaining what I see, telling you that trading now may not be the best idea. It's also quite interesting, most people won't read this entire post and an even smaller percentage of people who actually take the time to read what I am saying will take me seriously, but I guess that's why a small group of traders actually make all the money in this industry right? The money has to come from somewhere lol Downvote\ don't boost if you didn't read this entire post and don't understand OR Upvote\ boost if you did read this entire post and do understand Follow to see more heavy in-depth analysis like this in the future - I don't sell signals, I give my analysis here on Tradingview FOR FREE! Can your signal provider do that?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Brandon_evo4
2