XAU/USD (GOLD) Longs from 2,480.000 back upMy analysis for gold this week remains focused on identifying long opportunities to capitalize on the bullish pressure we've been seeing. The plan is to follow the trend as it develops. Last week's consolidation and the current slowdown suggest that the bullish momentum is waning and a retracement might be due.
I've identified a 2-hour supply zone where the price might react and trigger a downward move. If this does not happen, I'll look for the price to decline towards the 17-hour demand zone, where I anticipate price accumulation and a potential rally continuation.
Confluences for gold buy opportunities include:
- Price has shown strong bullish behavior and recently took out the all-time highs.
- A clear 17-hour demand zone remains, which caused a break of structure to the upside.
-There's trendline liquidity to the upside that needs to be taken.
- This move aligns with the higher time frame trend, which is currently very bullish.
P.S. I particularly expect the price to sweep the Asian session low around 2484, where we might then see a slowdown. Additionally, there's also a significant 19-hour demand zone below to consider.
Goldbuys
GOLD Pre\Post Analysis | Closing w\ $648.00 USD Profit TodayI do believe gold is going to continue to buy. As much as I know traders are interested in selling at the high, I don't think it is that probable to take that trade and the more you think of every trade in terms of probability, it saves you from taking some really shit trades, honestly.
Would you take a bet that you are either A. unsure you can win or B. know you will lose? Of course not, so why is it you take trades like that?
Take smarter trades.
GOLD is Bullish.....Doesn't matter what you think at the end of the day, gold is still very much a bullish market and it will likely stay like that for sometime.
Yes It will probably come down a bit, but based on how the momentum is increasing I actually see, gold speeding up in terms of buys, but who knows right?
Have a good weekend guys, see you on monday
+$380 Dollars on Gold TodayYes gold is bullish, yes I sold gold, yes I took 2 losses, Yes I am still in profit at the end of the day.
The more I grow as a trader the more I realize that it is much more about what decisions you make as opposed to just what trades you take.
Yes the trades you take are important but ultimately you have to make a decision to take that trade in the first place right?
Have a great rest of your day guys
How Probabilities Help Me win Trades on GoldAs much as I want to tell you that there is some magic set up that works for me, Unfortunately I cannot because there isn't.
The more I look at my own trading over the many years that I've been doing this. It literally boils down to probabilities.
What is the probability that X will happen if Y happened. This is literally how I process everything and as you can see it works wonders.
In this video breakdown I show you even a new trade LIVE. Admittedly, I wouldn't have taken it because it would have been counter momentum but even GUESSING I could make it work because of probabilities.
The reality is that we overcomplicate what we do too much and this is really not needed.
K.I.S.S - Keep it stupid simple
XAUUSD Analysis (29th April 2024)
XAUUSD Analysis
On the 1 hour timeframe, price action has created a 1 hour Bullish retracement.
Currently, price is in between the 1 hour low of 2326 and 2352. To get a clearer picture, I want price to break above/below these levels in order to look for potential trades.
IF price breaks above 2352, i wll be looking for a break and retest of that key level to take price to 2380.
However, if price breaks below 2326, i will be looking for active sells to target the 2292 level.
Gold Continues to Destroy SellersSheep vs Wolves
Sheep Believe that selling at the highest possible point will be the best potential bet
Wolves wait for sheep to slip so that they can eat the sheep
The problem with the sheep mentality is, what are you basing the "highest point" on
How do you know that this is the highest point? Who told you that it was? What made you believe it is the highest point?
It's interesting > in the everlasting pursuit for the best potential sell at the highest possible point you may have lost 3+ trades simply trying to chase the rainbow to find the pot of Gold (pun intended lol)
How many sellers winning currently? If any at all?
I keep saying, it isn't that it is not going to sell > the question is, does it make sense for it to sell here? No it doesn't
Because in a world where everyone goes left, you job should be to figure out why? and you'd probably be better off with going right instead
Godspeed to all sellers at this point, the good news is I do see gold kind of slowing down, maybe you might get your chance, but I doubt it :\
And even if you do, was losing so many trades before you actually get your winner worth it?
Food for thought
I will be analyzing this trade in even greater detail in my newsletter (link in bio) Subscribe to that for free for more information or feel free to reach out to me for more information
Downvote\don't boost if you didn't read and didn't try to understand
OR
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My trade is currently up 1:3+ and counting, and my stop loss is in profit at (2078) > Just under 1:2 (1:1.97exactly) Secured
Who you gonna believe sellers who guessing where the top is? Or????
GOLD BULLISH RALLY (buys from 2040 possibly)Last week, my gold analysis unfolded precisely as expected. However, following the reaction outlined in scenario (B), news on Friday at 3 pm triggered an upward rally, clearing out considerable liquidity and potential supply zones. This further solidifies my bullish bias, and I now anticipate a retracement due to the significant imbalance left behind by the price movement.
My strategy is to await a retracement to one of the marked demand zones, where I anticipate a Wyckoff accumulation to occur. Subsequently, I plan to buy back up to sustain this bullish trend. It appears that price has established an Asian high above, and the wick left from the all-time high needs to be filled.
Confluences for GOLD Buys are as follows:
- price changed character and broke structure the upside.
- Overall trend of the market is bullish so its a pro trend idea.
- Equal highs left now and there's still asian high that needs to be taken.
- Imbalances left below so expect price to retrace before making another rally.
- New demand zones has been left around the regions of 2040.000 for potential buys.
P.S. Since there's no available supply for selling, I'll either wait for price to establish a new supply zone, from which we can temporarily initiate sells downward, or I'll look for a correction to form around the 2040 area for potential buying opportunities.
Have a great trading week ahead guys and be cautious of this weeks news!
XAUUSD Gold weekly timeframe breakdownAnother week of more bearish price action. All in all it was a good week for trading with no losses being taken and successful trades (all have been reviewed and broken down here)
So with price closing below another key area of support, the expectation is going into the final week and a half of August price should continue down with little to no support remaining. At this point 1860 is the next level where we could see a rejection however given how price action in the past has reacted to this level I wouldn't be surprised if we drive straight down, but I feel that's not as likely as the bull case of tapping that level and moving back up into the 1900's.
XAUUSD Gold buys on the 4h timeframeLooking at buys above the 1912 level on the 4h timeframe, should we see a closure above here I expect price to continue up towards at least 1920, however overall price is still bearish, but my bias will flip should we see a push up, creation of a higher low and we can then take the trade.
XAUUSD Gold 4h breakdownWith sells still being the primary bias, we can look for sells at 1901 down to a potential 1895 where we may see rejection and price bounce towards the 1920 level.
I wouldn't be taking sells during asia session purely down to the fact it's unlikely we have volatility given no news from the US yesterday but anything can happen in these markets.
XAUUSD Gold buy trade breakdownYesterdays buy that we were testing the method of ended up being a success. This is good, but it's only one case out of many more to come.
The overall theory of the trade was price breaking out of a range where there was strong support, tapping into a level that we had tapped before with anticipation that price would move back to the top of the range where our full Take Profit was.
We had a second buy limit set at a secondary level, so that should price have retraced far enough we could get a secondary position to exit both on the retest of the initial break of support which turned resistance.
XAUUSD Gold buy limit scalpsLooking at previous price action, buy limits are set at very key areas of rejection
By anticipating price to come and tap these levels we are aiming for very quick 10 pip scalps.
Break out of the range to the downside, grab liquidity and ride it back up. Tight risk management is key!
This is not a trade I am taking on my personal account, only for live-testing purposes as I practice this concept.
XAUUSD Gold scalp ideas for buy and sellsWe are currently in a tricky range, despite price looking heavily bullish on the lower timeframes I would be cautious as price is known to reject and range within this area
Look for trades outside of this range and we can see a much clearer picture on where price wants to go and take trades based on that
Patience pays.
XAUUSD 4h timeframe analysisGold 4h is looking bullish. Strong support levels, price action rejecting the AOI.
Buys above 1966 would be the safest way to play this type of price action if you're a swing trader, mainly because in the past when we have seen gold close above this price we continue up.
Updates to follow after New York session
XAUUSD simple Weekly breakdownLooking at the weekly timeframe we can see 4 very key levels.
The ones closest to us - 1966 and 1977
Why is 1966 so important? The simple answer is this is a key level the weekly candle failed to close above last week
and what about 1990? a close above 1990 will almost certainly give us a shot at pushing 2010+ again and possibly looking at the all time highs.
We have 2 more trading days left for the weekly candle to close, this will be the most significant timeframe for next week as we will not only be seeing the monthly candle for July close, but going into August which is typically a trending month for Gold will be a key piece of analysis.
XAUUSD 1 hour analysisWith FOMC out of the way it's back to business (trading!) as usual. We will be looking for price to create support before being able to continue up as we go into the end of the week AND the end of the month.
A close above 1980 on the monthly timeframe will be incredibly bullish as far as indications of bullish momentum goes, but that will be discussed further in my monthly analysis chart.
For the hourly, with NY 30 minutes away from closing Asia session is our next best opportunity for price to continue up. First and foremost, Asia markets will react to the FED news and comments, and once that is out of the way London session tomorrow should see us print a liquidity grab before we continue in the direct the market chooses.
Personally, I'm more bias towards buys, and if we can get buy set ups I will be taking normal 1-2% risk per trade. Updates to be posted as and when they come in.
XAUUSD 1h analysis - potential buy opportunityLooking at Gold on the 1hour halfway through the current 4 hour candle, we can see price is rejecting the range we have highlighted.
Should price close above 1966, if price creates a bottom wick touching the 1963 and below level, before moving back up and breaking it's own highs above 1966 we can take buys immediately based on the fact we have closed above a key level, grabbed liquidity and have the volatility to continue the move up.
Should this play out I will be taking a trade at normal risk of 1-2% with stops below the most logical recent lows.
Gold W Buy Idea 5/20/23Gold is still at all time highs at the moment, so I am still not sure if it will go higher and break the previous month high (PMH)/the monthly high from 3/1/22 again OR break and retest this weekly (W) zone that it is currently playing in and go bearish again. I do know that there is a M liquidity zone + a W B (buy) FVG (fair value gap) right under where price is currently at.
For the STRATers, The W has formed a 2-1-2d-Rev.
So what I would like to see price do is break down to the W B FVG and bounce back bullish to hit the PMH(s).