Gold ready for a retracement ?Currently, based on the price action, the price near or at the Ascending Broadening Wedge line, if the price stays below the upper wedge line, that's a pretty strong indication that gold needs to retrace or retest the broken major down trendline.
Invalidation:
This analysis fails if the price breakout and close above the upper ascending broadening wedge line.
Catalyst:
- JOLTS
- Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
- US Sales data
- Unemployment Claims
- Prelim GDP q/q
- FOMC
Goldcartel
November Forecast - Continue the rally ?Currently, DXY is precisely at the trendline. There's no clear indication yet that it would reject the trendline or not. As long as it stays above the daily trendline, I reckon DXY will make a new high beyond 94 zones.
Next week we are all waiting for the US data to understand better the next DXY direction.
Catalyst:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
- ISM Services PMI
- FOMC
- Unemployment claims
- NFP
Follow Up analysis - It was a perfect tradeThe price currently retests the broken daily trendline, a strong indication that AUD potentially will fall deeper.
If you missed the previous analysis, maybe now is the best time to catch another potential big trade.
News:
www.reuters.com
Plan:
- If the price stays below the broken trendline, I reckon AUD will fall to all the targets this month.
To see the daily trendline here's the previous analysis
Invalidation:
- This analysis fails if the price breakout and close above the broken daily trendline
Potential Rising WedgeCurrently, the price action showing a potential rising wedge on the H4 time-frame.
Plan:
- If the price rejects and stays below the upper rising wedge line, I reckon XAU will fall to the bottom rising wedge line. If the price can break and close below the bottom rising wedge line, XAU will definitely fall to all the targets this month.
Invalidation:
- This analysis fails if the price breakout and close above the upper rising wedge line
A rising wedge is a technical indicator, suggesting a reversal pattern frequently seen in bear markets. This pattern shows up in charts when the price moves upward, with pivot highs and lows converging toward a single point known as the apex. -*Investopedia
Weekly forecast - Potential evening starSo far, XAU/USD falls back to below the August 2020 - January 2021 trendline
Today XAU/USD finally broke the minor trendline
Potentially an evening star pattern on the daily timeframe
The gold market is potentially gonna be wild in the next few days. I'm concerned about US lockdown breaking news.
Last year in March, Gold crashed $300 then rally $600.
Maybe the 4th of July will be the reason for the increasing covid cases in the US. The average Covid duration of incubation is from 5 to 7 days but can be as long as 14 days.
So until the end of July, there's a possibility of another US lockdown. If it happens, it's gonna shake the market.
Invalidation:
This analysis fails if the price goes up to breakout and close above the August 2020 - January 2021 trendline
Sydney Lockdown !Technically the chart right now is at the neckline. If the price rejects this neckline, AUD may fall to the minor trendline, maybe deeper to 0.702.
Sydney, Australia, on Saturday night, began a two-week lockdown amid a surge in cases of the COVID-19 Delta variant.
Catalyst:
- Sydney lockdown
- US CB Consumer
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
- ISM Manufacturing PMI
- NFP
- US Unemployment Rate
Potential Bearish Pennant - Follow up analysisIt was a perfect analysis; the price rejected the 1916 zone. The price was falling back down to below the previous major downtrend line. Here's the link to the last XAU/USD analysis
Currently, the chart shows a potential bearish pennant, which is means a possible bearish continuation. If the price rejects and remains below the upper pennant line, I reckon XAU/USD will continue to fall and make a new low. But, if XAU/USD breakout the upper pennant line, I suspect it will keep climbing to retest1800-1820 zone previous strong resistance.
Today's entry price, scalping long to the upper pennant line:
Here's below the weekly forecast; I posted these charts at the beginning of this week:
PLAN A
PLAN B
Potentially the greatest trade of this yearYes, I'm crazy enough predicting the crash !!
The COVID Crash of March 2020 (Source: corporate finance institute)
The market collapse in March 2020 was caused by the government’s reaction to the Novel COVID-19 outbreak, a rapidly spreading coronavirus around the world. The pandemic impacted many sectors worldwide, including healthcare, natural gas, food, and software. The unemployment rate skyrocketed in the first quarter of 2020.
Currently, my chart says something big will happens; what event? I don't know, but the chart shows that the market crash will potentially occur and starting in June - July 2021.
If the price rejects the upper line, I reckon it will fall deep to the Fibonacci retracement 38.20%, 50%, and maybe 61.80%.
Invalidation:
- This analysis fails if the price breakout and close above the upper line
Grand Theft Auto 6Take-Two owns Rockstar Games and has developed and published many notable games, including its most famous Grand Theft Auto series, Red dead redemption, Mafia series, and a few other big games, including 2K.
Last month, Rockstar announced Grand Theft Auto V expanded and enhanced Edition for Sony PS5, Xbox Series X, and will launch on November 11, 2021.
Based on the previous game's announcement and release, Rockstars games always gives a significant push to TTWO. (Charts attached below)
Technical analysis:
- Based on my chart, I believe TTWO will have a big announcement in November 2021 (maybe they will announce Grand Theft Auto 6) and most likely will continue the rally beyond $200.
- Currently, a Potential Head and Shoulder pattern may fall to retest the bottom trend line. It is pretty safe to short sell it down to the major bottom trendline, then start to invest long-term once the price retests the major bottom trendline.
Grand Theft Auto 5 announced
Grand Theft Auto 5 Released
Red Dead Redemption 2 Announced
Red Dead Redemption 2 Released
Grand Theft Auto 5 New Generation Consoles Announcement
The sky's the limitTechnically a potential Golden cross, and fundamentally Arrival seems promising, which went public via a merger with a unique purpose acquisition company (SPAC), has an order for up to 10,000 vans from UPS. Arrival also plans to collaborate with Uber to produce electric taxis in the UK and the Microfactories plan.
Last but not least, I love the product and its target market. I think Arrival will keep growing and a potential slow cook stock that can generate a nice long-term profit.
Arrival and Uber to collaborate on electric Car for the ride-hailing industry
arrival.com
Breakout or rejection ?Pretty excellent risk-reward ratio. XAU/USD rejected the down trendline twice on August 7, 2020, and January 6, 2021.
If the price rejects the trendline, my chart says that potentially it will reach the final target on August 18, 2021.
The biggest question is whether the market is ready to fall deeper or buyers keep buying blindly because of inflation?
Research shows that gold prices don't correlate well with inflation, so when inflation rises, the price of gold isn't necessarily going to skyrocket. It's way more complex than that.
For example, in 2008, Gold price year high $1,023.50, and year low $692.50.
Historical Inflation Rates: 1914-2021
www.usinflationcalculator.com
Invalidation:
This analysis fails if the price breakout and closes above the down trendline.
Catalyst:
- FOMC
- US Unemployment
- PMI
- NFP
- CPI
Potential HUGE tradeBased on my price action, currently, it's a nice retest of the broken TL, a pretty excellent risk-reward ratio. I predicted it would reach the final target by the end of July or the beginning of August. I would wait for the confirmation candle, enter the trade, set SL / TP, and forget about it since the analysis is base on the daily time frame.
We had a similar entry price zone on February 25, 2021 (link attached). The market rejected 1.224 zones at that time and fell deep to 1.170.
Invalidation:
This analysis fails if the price breakout and closes above 1.236.
Catalyst:
- ECB Financial Stability Review
- EU CPI
- FOMC
- US Unemployment claims
- EU PMI
- ECB Press Conference
- NFP
Is the King of the currencies ready to take back the throne ?The major trend has changed since January 2021, and currently, my chart says that 87-89 potentially the bottom.
Technically I reckon there's a possibility that DXY will climb to 94 zones; that zone was the broken neckline.
Historical Inflation Rates: 1914-2021
www.usinflationcalculator.com
US CPI www.bls.gov
"Treasury secretary Yellen does not anticipate inflation to be a problem" www.wsj.com
Potential Bearish Megaphone !Currently, I see a potential Bearish "Megaphone" pattern or potential Bearish Broadening wedge. Short-term bearish assumptions for the gold price are the potential targets 1, 2, and 3; that's the strongest support.
Technical analysis
Plan A:
If the price can break out and close below the potential target 3, I reckon XAU/USD will keep falling to retest the bottom wedge line.
Plan B:
If the price rejects the potential targets 1, 2, or 3, I reckon XAU will go up to retest the upper broadening wedge line and most likely the upper major channel line.
Invalidation:
If the price can break out and close above the broadening wedge, then this analysis fails.
Fundamental preview
Q2 started with a nice rally as Fed's dovish messages sink in. The market seems didn't care about strong US data and the US economic recovery, which statistically growing at its fastest pace since 1984.
Last week, the core retails sales went up to 8.4%, retail sales went up to 9.8%, and the unemployment claims fell deep to 576K. But, U.S consumer prices surge in March, CPI finds, pushing inflation to a 2 1/2-year high. As of now, I trust the price action.
London (CNN Business): "President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus package will boost the US economy and drive faster global growth this year, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday, though it warned that many countries continue to suffer from the pandemic and are at risk of being left behind.
The US economy will surpass its pre-pandemic size as growth reaches 6.4% this year, the IMF said, up 1.3 percentage points from the group's forecast in January. The rebound will help the global economy expand 6% in 2021, an upgrade of 0.5 percentage points from the IMF's previous outlook. The estimates are broadly in line with Wall Street's expectations."
Nice risk-reward ratioAs long as it stays below the strong resistance, I reckon EUR will falling to the targets in the next few days.
This analysis fails if the price breakout above the resistance.
Catalyst:
- Price action
- US CPI
- Fed Chair Powell Speaks
- EU Economic Forecasts
- Unemployment Claims
Is CANOO the next big thing ? Hyundai motor was in early-stage talks with Apple about potentially working together to develop an electric car. - Report CNBC
So what's the connection with Canoo? Canoo and Hyundai announced a partnership last year to develop an EV platform, which would likely use Canoo's proprietary "skateboard" platform architecture. Canoo said availability would begin in 2022, with scaled production and launch planned for 2023.
If all goes well, I reckon CANOO will keep climbing to beyond $50.
Catalyst/Source:
- www.theverge.com
- www.cnbc.com
- www.hyundainews.com
- Joe Biden signs executive orders to cut US oil, gas, and coal emissions
Carnival Cruise Line - "Megaphones"Currently, I'm still looking for the best price to enter a long-term investment. The technical analysis gives a hint that it possible for CCL to recover. We can see a potential Golden cross on the daily time-frame and a Broadening Wedge Patterns or "Megaphones" on the weekly.
Sooner or later, the business and tourism will be back to normal. Carnival will be on my watchlist for a long-term investment.
Here's below the "Megaphones"
Catalyst:
- Golden Cross
- Megaphones
Potential Reversal Please click the link in the yellow circle to see the previous analysis.
I need to see 1 more weekly confirmation candle. If it can break out and close below 20k, I reckon it will fall deeper to 9k - 11k.
Catalyst:
- Price action
Here's attached below my best 2020 Crypto's analysis: