Bitcoin Price Action Update (day 343)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
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Consensio: S EMA getting close to crossing L EMA
Patterns: Bottom of descending triangle is at $5,800
Horizontals: R: $5,589 | S: $5,306
Trendline: Kind of looks similar to gold with a long term bull TL starting from the top of the price with a recent broken bear TL.
Parabolic SAR: $5,115
Futures Curve: Backwardation
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.03%
Shorts: Really starting to increase
TD’ Sequential: Coming off G9 + bearish spinning top
Ichimoku Cloud: Daily starting to C Clamp. Weekly stilll without bullish TK Cross.
Relative Strength Index: W: 60 | D: 70 with bear div
Average Directional Index: Daily showing strong signs of exhaustion. Looks very similar to BTC selloff to $3,000.
Price Action: 24h: +1.01% | 2w: +8.94% | 1m: +40.69%
Stochastic Oscillator: D SS & W OB
Summary: The golden cross is incoming and the price is pulling back into it, however I am awaiting further confirmation before buying. The market is heavily overbought and I believe it is due for an extended correction (1 month+). Furthermore we recently had a news development that could be very significant.
The current market structure is very much an inverse of what we saw during the selloff in December of 2018. First notice the bull divergence on the RSI that occured from November 24th - December 16th. That occurred right alongside two daily red 9’s. We currently have a bear divergence following two green 9’s.
The Average Directional Index is also showing striking similarities. Spiking above 70 and then rolling over right as the bear divergence was taking place. This tells me that we are in for another extended period of consolidation.
If that occurs between $4,200 and $5,600 (what I think is most likely) then it will likely cause the 50 and 200 EMA’s to cross back and forth which would whipsaw anyone using that signal to enter / exit. If instead we consolidate between $4,700 and $5,000 for a few weeks then I will likely be a buyer. That would mean that the price is staying above the 50 and 200 EMA and a whipsaw would be much less likely.
Something else to pay attention to is the CME futures expiring tomorrow. The price has a strong propensity to experience volatility following expiration of CME futures despite the small relative volume. Perhaps this is a result of crypto exchange volume being largely fabricated , as was argued by Bitwise Asset Management last month. If that is the case then the actual volume on the CME futures could be far more significant than many realize.
Earlier this afternoon it was announced that the New York Attorney General will be prosecuting Bitfinex . The allegation is that they commingled client funds to cover up a $850 million loss. The NY AG maintains jurisdiction because he believes Bitfinex has been servicing clients in the state of New York.
The price fell 8.5% in the 30 minutes following the press release. Now it has started to stabilize around $5,000. It will be very interesting to see if that support can hold much longer despite the overbought conditions and negative news.
