The Bermuda TriangleWe have formed a sort of incomplete triangle (abcd), a leg e down might still happen, but there will be no regular zigzag correction to 8500.
The triangle can also transform into a trading range in the next few days until we get the cross.
We can also have an abc flat with truncated c instead of a triangle and continue to move up. Or this can be a completed X wave with the next big move down. (not likely)
Expect a larger breakout to either side after volume consolidation. A fakeout to the upside is also possible.
Here's what can happen in the Bermuda Triangle of Bitcoin:
1. EMA 50x200 golden cross on D1 + pump with high volume => we break 10000, go up to 12000
2. EMA 50x200 golden cross on D1, no pump, low volume breakout => bullish fakeout, we won't reach 10000 or even 9800, max 10200 (50% yearly fibo level). Then go down.
3. no EMA 50x200 golden cross on D1, no pump => a further move up can't be sustained, so we go down.
Watch for the golden cross on D1 and, ideally, a huge pump. And by the looks of it we might not get either.
Note that EMA (normal lines) are not equal to MA (dotted lines), red = 50, yellow = 100, blue = 200.
So, we can have a possible EMA cross, and can be still below MA 200 at the same time. MA 200 is a powerful resistance which also coincides with 10000 (strong psychological level).
Swing traders usually buy immediately after the golden cross on D1, or after the first pullback to MA. Some of them are using EMA, others MA.
They look for a strong candle on high volume for confirmation. Don't expect lots of buying without a pump.
The move up is happening too early and on low volume. CME futures have just expired - the market makers already took their profit. So, why would they pump now?
They would probably wait for the market to settle down/go up a bit and then crash, establish a trading range, then make their next move. This have happened before.
And remember, there are some mighty bears sitting high at the tops of the trees and they will come down at the bulls in full swing.
Here's what happens when we don't get a golden cross and EMAs nearly miss (Point 3):
Up trend pros:
- indicators, momentum, bullish bias, expectations of a golden cross
- the last leg of triangle (leg d) can be "the change of character" similar to the triangle at 6400 => means that the market makers have bought up the asset and are done with the range, ready to move the price up.
the breakout upwards can be the start of a next wave of the up trend.
Good Luck!
This is not a financial advice. Please, don't trade based on my analysis only, do your own research.
