Gold and Money Supply. Why Gold is a good long-term investment.Here we see the correlation of Gold (XAUUSD) and M1 (money supply composed of physical currency and coin, demand deposits etc). During the last two financial crises (DOTCOM and SUBPRIMES), the central bank raised the rates to support the stock market collapse and save the economy from recession.
As you see when rates were raised and money supply spiked, Gold started rising as well as a counter to inflation. Similarly, Gold has spiked since March 2020 when the Fed announced the trillion dollar rescue package to counter the shattered demand from the COVID lockdown.
In our opinion that makes Gold a necessity to any investor's portfolio on the long-term.
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Goldfutures
XAUUSD: In need of a medium-term correction.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up since early April. The 1D chart remains bullish (RSI = 60.683, MACD = 14.370, ADX = 34.990) but the upper MA periods have started to turn bearish (MA5). The technical reason is that it hit the Higher High trend-line of the Channel Up. We expect to make a first Low near the previous Support at 1,750, rebound to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and then resume the decline towards the inner Higher Low trend-line. Our Target Zone is 1,725 - 1,715.
Notice that the same pattern has been formed on every Higher High formation. The price drops by roughly -2.40% then bounces back above the 0.618 Fibonacci and then dips more to the Inner Higher Low trend-line.
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XAUUSD Interesting fractalPay attention to this if you are trading on the short-term. The 1H MA200 is normally there to support but can deliver a breaking as on June 15th. Also as long as the 1H MA50 is a Resistance the trend will be downwards within this Channel Down.
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Most recent XAUUSD signal:
XAUUSD Sell SignalPattern: Ascending Triangle.
Signal: Bearish as we are approaching the Higher High Sell Zone.
Target: short-term = 1750 (the Higher Low of the 4H Channel Down), long-term = 1715 (that is if 1740 breaks).
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XAUUSD Trading planPattern: Channel Down on 4H.
Signal: (A) Bearish is the (red) Higher Lows trend-line breaks. Bearish extension below Support 1. (B) Bullish if the 1746 Resistance breaks.
Target: (A) 1695 (Lower Low of the Channel Down), (B) 1760 (just below the Yearly High).
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☆ XAU / USD GOLD — Gold Trading ☆Hello! Gold providing good signals for growth.
For whole 32 days we was in triangle/flag pattern
In Elliott Waves, usually 5th wave on gold have extension. For example on stocks we see extension of 3rd waves.
Please consider to trade with affordable risk.
Stay in touch
this is Artem Crypto.
XAUUSD GOLD SPOT: The Future of Gold???WELCOME TO MY PAGE AND FEEL FREE TO LIKE AND SUPPORT BY FOLLOWING, I hope everyone has a great day in the market today = )
Chart above shows XAUUSD in H1 Time Frame. Continuing from our previous idea, XAUUSD Gold has indeed followed our plan as stated, a BREAKDOWN from the top of the channel line (GREEN) towards the bottom.
Now, we look for how GOLD reacts at the support levels @ 1690 region:
- A REBOUND definitely means a LONG opportunity to the top of channel line @ 1717-1720 area
- A BREAKDOWN from support level @ 1690 would likely mean a major trend reversal for gold (Bullish to bearish)
Following a breakdown would likely mean a retouch of the bottom of channel line, rejection then SELL pressure to our next major support @ 1671
Fundamental Analysis:
As always, it is good to supplement technical analysis with confirmation from news signals, thus allowing a higher rate of profitability and wins.
- A possible strengthening Dollar this week beginning
- Gold prices had been supported last week by market signals suggesting that U.S. official interest rates could turn negative next year as the Fed is forced to resort to ever-more dramatic measures to support the economy. Two senior Fed officials – Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Chicago counterpart Charles Evans – may both touch on the subject when they speak later Monday.
- Flow of hot money into gold is easing off : Physical demand from Indian retails suffer due to higher prices and a weakening rupiah
- World Gold Council data suggest imports fell 50% from a year ago in the first quarter, while Chinese imports fell by 62%.
Notably, many ETFs who have held gold since May may begin a slow sell off with their inventories to secure profits as they respond to news and the reopenings of economies.
OVERALL TREND, Im Bearish on Gold due to the above reasons.
Of course things can change and to watch out for:
1) Implementation of Negative rates by Fed --> implies a backwardation of fiat monetary system and a shift onto gold instead (You can read about how it works here--> www.goldmoney.com)
2) News of second wave of Pandemic
As always, good luck with all your trades and FEEL FREE TO LIKE AND SUSCRIBE IF YOU LIKE WHAT YOU SEE
Regards,
GOL D ROGER