Too steep, too quickly...After literally months of waiting, we finally signaled that gold had reached some attractive price levels on 2nd October 2023. Subsequently, gold bottomed out in the next four days and rose more than $150 from its lows. While these gains are impressive, we are starting to grow very skeptical about how much higher gold can go from the current level. That’s because stocks are beginning to manifest signs of weakness, and in the case of significant selling pressure in the stock market, we think investors will be forced to cover losses elsewhere by liquidating their gold position (especially willing to do so with its recent gains). Hence, we are on high alert and closely monitoring the situation.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily = Bearish
Weekly = Slightly bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Goldfutures
Gold in danger as stocks keep fallingFinally, our expectations were fulfilled, and gold dropped below $1,900 yesterday. We continue to be bullish on gold in the long term. However, in the short and medium term, we are still inclined toward the scenario with gold sliding lower, likely testing $1,875 (and potentially $1,850 if the weakness in the stock market does not stop). Therefore, just like in the past few months, we remain waiting for a better opportunity to add more gold to our portfolio.
Technical analysis
Daily = Bearish
Weekly = Bearish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
GOLD, Two Scenarios, One Outcome, Wedge-Breakout Incoming!Hello There!
Welcome to my new analysis about GOLD on the daily timeframe perspectives. As I already mentioned within posts I uploaded within the recent times GOLD has a more bullish edge and potentials for new highs on the middle to long term perspective. Especially, because the demand and open interest by institutionals is increasing massively and some are speculating about a gold-backed currency which is likely to pump massive volumes into the GOLD market when this becomes reality. GOLD has been around for several thousands of years, it even did not collapsed after the end of the Bretton Woods gold-backed system, therefore it is no wonder that the GOLD price held stable and is looking for a breakout especially with the backing by the increased demand caused by a established war economy with the ongoing inflationary tensions and investors in search for a safe heaven to hedge against a next inflation wave and excess help package spendings not to mentioned that the GOLD price without inflation would have reached an all-time-high already.
When looking at my chart now GOLD is now forming an important formation, such a formation is known for an exponential volatility breakout, and huge gains into the breakout direction. Especially within this current price dynamic with the broader global formation still aiming for a final breakout this formation is the equivalent of the broader formation on the daily timeframe perspective. The GOLD price-action is trading above several major support-zones here consisting of the 65-EMA, the 300-EMA, and the 500-EMA as well as the two ascending-trend-lines with one ascending-trend-line still backing the current price which is supporting the more likely scenario A with a 75% possibility, and the second ascending-trend-line to confirm a bounce and continuation to a final breakout if the less likely scenario B should emerge. Both scenarios are aiming for the final breakout-dynamic to setup in the next times and once the breakout has been emerged it will either activate the final target-zone A or the final target-zone B as they are marked in my chart.
GOLD is now about to convert the whole formation into a massive breakout reaching local highs and when the demand in GOLD increases further because of a increased demand for a safe heaven and the inherent value of GOLD that did not lost it´s inherent value within the second half of the 20st century and the beginning of the 21st century. Considering the fact that GOLD lived throught many recessions, the dot-com bubble, the pandemic, the exploding historical high inflation since the 1970s bull-market confirms the major inherent value of GOLD as a legit crisis hedge and the fact that GOLD is now trading near it´s all-time-high with the non-inflation-adjusted price-action is underlining this standing of GOLD as a legit crisis hedge. The GOLD price should have reached an all-time-high already adjusted without inflation and still with non-inflation-adjusted price this all-time-high is likely to be reached. The next times will be highly important as GOLD is now boiling up for the next step to move into a major breakout firstly on the daily timeframe perspective and then also on the broader weekly timeframe perspective moving forward to complete the massive cup-and-handle formation. In the next time we will keep having GOLD on the watchlist and adjusting to the demand shock dynamics in commodities which has major potential to setup the next breakout wave for GOLD.
In this manner, thank you everybody for watching, support is greatly appreciated, all the best!
VP
XAUUSD: Buy signal if the price breaks over this Resistance.Gold turned bullish again on the 4H timeframe (RSI = 63.771, MACD = -1.560, ADX = 40.595) after crossing today over the two week Channel Down and naturally the 4H MA50 and MA200 periods. Following the 4H MACD Bullish Cross, this rally can extend to at least R2 and that's our bullish target (TP = 1,953). The entry signal will be closing over R1.
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More downside for gold is probableIn line with our previous ideas and choppy price action, we continue to wait for a better opportunity to add gold to our portfolio. We are neutral to slightly bearish in the short term while bullish in the long term. However, we still deem a weakness in the stock market as a danger to the higher price of gold (at least for now). As a result, we believe gold's price is still not out of the woods. Indeed, we would not be surprised to see it plunge below $1,900 again in the foreseeable future. This possibility is indicated by technicals on the daily and weekly charts, which are growing increasingly bearish. Therefore, more weakness for gold is probable. We will update our thoughts on the asset with the emergence of new developments.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of MACD, which failed to hold above the midpoint. That is a bearish development.
Technical analysis
Daily = Bearish
Weekly = Slightly bearish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
XAUUSD Sell inside the Channel Down, buy over it.Gold / XAUUSD is trading inside a Channel Down pattern since the start of the month.
Today it hit the 1hour MA50 for the first time since Sep 4th and got rejected again.
As long as the price is inside the Channel Down, sell and target 1910 (-0.72% decline).
If it crosses above Fibonacci 0.236, buy and target 1933 (1hour MA200 and Fibonacci 0.5).
Observation 1. Notice the bullish divergence on the 1hour RSI.
Observation 2. All Fibonacci retracement levels are harmonically aligned with the Channel's Lower Highs.
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Unclear path for gold Almost two weeks ago, we touted gold’s retest of the support at $1,900 and the potential continuation lower to $1,875. However, soon after that, gold halted its decline slightly below $1,885 and reversed. Subsequently, it went above $1,920. For the most part, this move coincided with the relief in the stock market. Therefore, we remain on high alert and somewhat undecided about the next path for gold. Technicals on the daily time frame turned slightly bullish, with Stochastic and RSI pointing to the upside. But DM+ and DM- still suggest the presence of a downtrend, and MACD hovers in the bearish territory. To bolster a bullish case in the short term/medium term, we would like to see MACD break above the midpoint and RSI with Stochastic continue to develop bullish structures. Besides that, we want to see the stock market stabilizing (as we think the market weakness still threatens the higher price of gold). To summarize this short article, we are neutral in the short-term and medium-term and bullish in the long term. In accordance with that, we continue to wait for a better opportunity to buy gold.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD and two simple moving averages that act as alternative resistance levels. In the next few days, we will observe their ability to stop the rising prices.
Technical analysis
Daily = Neutral/Slightly bullish
Weekly = Slightly bearish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Gold: Having a 'Metal' Breakdown 😫The price of gold is currently experiencing a notable downward trend, aligning with our initial predictions. Anticipating further declines, we foresee the price dropping below the support level of $19 000. This descent could lead to the formation of the low point for the orange wave iii. However, we maintain a 25% probability of a potential upward movement. In an alternate scenario, the price would need to establish the blue wave alt.(ii) within the $2014.8 to $2064.5 range before beginning its downward trajectory.
Choppiness to translate into weakness?The gold market has been volatile in the past few days, prompting us to maintain a neutral stance in the short term. However, what caught our interest during this time was MACD trying to cross through the midpoint on the daily chart. If successful, this event will likely coincide with more weakness in gold, potentially dragging it toward the area between $1,900 and 1,910 (and eventually, maybe even lower). Besides concerning MACD, indicators like RSI and Stochastic also show bearish signs. As a result, we are growing a bit bearish on gold in the short term (though we remain bullish in the long term). It would not surprise us to see investors take profits from gold if the selloff in stocks continues. We saw this occurrence in 2022 on multiple occasions, and we think it is also a real possibility in the future. Therefore, we continue to wait for a better bargain before adding more gold to our portfolio.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily MACD approaching the midpoint.
Technical analysis
Daily = Slightly bearish
Weekly = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
XAUUSD Sell Signal. First 4hour Death Cross since May.Gold / XAUUSD completed today the first 4hour Death Cross since May 19th and the second since February 13th.
In both cases, this formation made a Lower Low, while also the 4hour RSI was trading inside a Channel Down.
Sell and target 1900 (over Support A).
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Gold future 1D poss. price action projection into the futurethis is the result of my analysis about the 1D chart possible price action develepement. Just an idea, nothing seriouse. Worth to monitor ;) Pls leave a like when it worked out
Das ist das Ergebnis meiner Analyse über den 1D Chart mögliche Preisentwicklung. Nur eine idee, nichts gravierendes. Wert, im Auge zu behalten ;) Bitte liken wenn es gefällt
XAUUSD Buy signal on the MA50 (1d).Gold is rising today as the 4 day pull-back made a stop near the bottom of the Channel Up.
At the same time it stayed over the MA50 (1d), which since July 12th has been closing all (1d) candles over it.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 2015 (Higher High on the Channel Up, a little under Resistance 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is rebounding on the MA trendline. It is identical to the July 6th bottom rebound that led to a Higher High.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
XAUUSD The first Golden Cross (4h) since March can deliver 2005.Gold is trading inside a Channel Up that got it off the prior downtrend as it crossed above the MA50 (1d).
The price hit the top of the Channel Up, so a pullback is expected, same as July 3rd and July 10th.
Perhaps the most important development today is the first Golden Cross (4h) since March 15th.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy near 1,966.
Targets:
1. 2005 (top of Channel Up).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is perhaps more illustrative of the expected minor pullback as it appears to have completed a leg similar to those that peaked on July 7th and June 30th. Also there is a Rising Support to consider for the Channel Up.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
XAUUSD can reach 2150 within September-October.Gold / XAUUSD has started the new bullish leg of the 8 month Channel Up, as it is about to complete three straight green weeks. This hasn't been done since March 13th.
The 1day RSI just crossed over the MA trendline, a strong bullish signal as well.
Both previous Bullish Legs of the Channel Up rose by at least +13.50%, so use that as the standard technical target.
Buy and target 2150.
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Gold: Rearing up 🐎Gold has been rearing up once more but should soon return below the support at $1936 to continue the overarching downwards movement until the low of wave (4) in yellow is found, which we expect to happen below the turquoise zone between $1840 and $1713. However, there is a 30% chance that the precious metal could use the turquoise zone to finish wave alt.2 in turquoise instead. In that case, gold would turn upwards from there, rising back above $1936 and further northwards.
XAUUSD: Hit the 1D MA50 after nearly 2 months.Gold crossed over the 1D MA50 today for the first time in almost 2 months (since May 17th). As the 1D timeframe turned bullish again (RSI = 58.454, MACD = -7.380, ADX = 44.489) this is the first major bullish signal of a projected new long term rally.
However we will wait until the first 1D candle close over the 1D MA50 and make a confirmed buy entry. Our first target is the R2 (TP1 = 1,985.50) just under the 0.5 Fibonacci level and second the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP2 = 2,041.00) just under the R3.
It has to be mentioned that the price also crossed above the 1D MA100 today.
Prior idea:
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XAUUSD The Resistance is the catalyst for the direction.Gold / XAUUSD continues to trade inside a Channel Down, consolidating near Resistance A (1937.50) after the recent Lower Low.
Every candle close under this Resistance is a sell call. Short and target Support at 1895.
Any 1day candle close over the Resistance is a trend change call. Long and target Resistance B and the 1day MA50 at 1955.
The RSI's Rectangle matches the Channel Down Highs and Lows. Use it for additional entries.
Previous chart:
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Selling pressure on halt and potential trend reversal In our previous article on gold, we noted that we were still not turning bullish in the short-term as technicals on the daily and weekly time frame pointed to more downside. However, prior to that, we also noted that one development stood out to us, and it was decreasing volume accompanying the falling price. We stated this was a positive development for gold, suggesting that selling pressure has declined. Subsequently, we touted to watch this metric in the next few days. Following lows near $1,893, volume continued to fall, further fortifying our assessment about decreasing selling pressure (now suggesting that the short-term trend might be finally reversing from bearish to bullish). Consequently, we change our short-term stance from bearish to neutral. For us to grow bullish, we would like to see gold break above its 20-day SMA and hold above this level. In case of a drop in the price, we would like to see it hold above $1,910. If the price fails to do so, it will raise our concern over more downside for gold.
Technical analysis
Daily = Bearish
Weekly = Bearish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
XAUUSD: Breakout now retesting the Support. Buy.Gold broke on Friday over the LH trendline and reached the 4H MA50 for the first time in 10 days. The rejection is now retesting the LH in the form of Support, as it happened on the May 30th bullish breakout. That was the leg to the top of the Channel Down. With the 4H timeframe being neutral (RSI = 46.429, MACD = -2.220, ADX = 38.259) and the RSI on the same bullish divergence, we are buying into this retest and target the top of the Channel Down and contact tranjectory with the 4H MA200 (TP = 1,943).
Prior idea:
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GOLD - Short active ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on XAUUSD.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bearish market structure from 1H timeframe perspective, so I am looking for shorts from premium zone. I expect bearish price action from here as we can see that price filled perfectly the imbalance and rejected from bearish order block.
Fundamental analysis: Upcoming week on Thursday and Friday we have news on USD. Pay attention to the results in order to validate the analysis.
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