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Goldfutures

The road higher will be bumpyWhile bullish in the long term, we are still awaiting further pullback in the price of gold after its impressive run above $2,000. Right now, we are paying close attention to support and resistance levels near $2,009, $1,985, and $1,959. If the price of gold manages to hold above $1,985, it will be positive; the same applies to the breakout above $2,000 and resistance near $2,009. However, if the price fails to stay above the mentioned level, and we see more decline in RSI and Stochastic on the daily chart, it will alert us to more downside; in such a case, we would expect gold to drop below $1,960 (and maybe even to as low as $1,925). Yet, regardless of our opinions, it is important to note that there is a FOMC meeting scheduled for today, which can have a volatile impact (to either side) on the price depending on the FED’s decision and the chairman's tone during the press conference. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 portrays the daily chart of XAUUSD and simple support/resistance levels derived from particular peaks and troughs. Illustration 1.02 The image above shows the daily chart of RSI. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish crossover below 70 points, which raises our suspicion (though it still could be just a fakeout). Technical analysis Daily = Bullish Weekly = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
27
Gold's safe-haven behaviorIn the previous idea about gold, we expressed skepticism for overly bullish prospects in the short term (in the long term, we stay bullish). The main idea behind that is gold often reacts (initially) positively to geopolitical tensions, stock market weakness, or any type of disruptive event. Nevertheless, even if persistent, these events (or disruptions) eventually start to be priced in and ignored by market participants. Depending on many external factors, the periods of an initial positive reaction vary in length and strength. Below are charts illustrating this relationship between gold and SPX. Illustration 1.01 - 2021 market peak Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. The orange line represents the S&P 500 Index. It can be observed that in late 2021 when SPX started to fall, gold reacted positively at first. However, this positive reaction lasted only for about two months. After that, gold started to follow the stock market to the downside. Illustration 1.02 - COVID-19 stock market crash The image above displays the daily chart of XAUUSD. The orange line represents the S&P 500 Index. Again, gold can be seen rising in an initial reaction to the COVID-19 stock market crash but falling later. Illustration 1.03 - 2007/2008 crisis Illustration 1.03 portrays the daily chart of XAUUSD and SPX (orange line). After the stock market peaked in 2007, gold continued to rise. In fact, it managed to go on an approximately 200-day rally before finally reversing to the downside (this is one of the strongest positive reactions in gold to the weakness in stocks). Illustration 1.04 - 1987 crash (Black Monday) Illustration 1.04 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD and SPX (orange line). In response to the 1987 crash, gold rose for 111 days. Interestingly, its peak coincided with the stock market's bottom. Illustration 1.05 - 2010 flash-crash Above is the daily chart of XAUUSD and SPX (orange line). During the May 2010 selloff, gold reacted positively to the weakness in stocks at first. Then, it erased nearly all of its gains, rebounded again, and erased gains for the second time. Technical analysis Daily = Bullish Weekly = Slightly bearish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Tradersweekly
2
Seeking Shelter in Gold on Rising Geopolitical RisksShining bright and sizzling hot, gold has surged 8% over the past two weeks. Ample supply of geopolitical shocks from violence in the Middle East to ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has been driving gold high. This paper examines the drivers supporting the gold rally and prevailing bullish & bearish factors. It posits two hypothetical trades to astutely position portfolios amid a raft of geopolitical and economic shocks. GOLD IS A HAVEN WHEN GEOPOLITICS DELIVER SHOCKS In a previous paper , Mint Finance highlighted that gold is a resilient store of wealth as it outperforms in times of extreme volatility. Geopolitical tensions remain intense amid ongoing armed conflicts in Russia-Ukraine and Palestine-Israel which underpins gold as an investor haven. Gold responds to elevated geopolitical risks as reported by the World Gold Council . A 100 unit increase in the Geopolitical Risk Index ( GPR ) has a 2.5% positive impact on gold returns as measured by the Gold Return Attribution Model ( GRAM ). GOLD IS TRADING AT KEY PSYCHOLOGICAL PRICE LEVEL Gold prices have catapulted more than 8% since the rapid escalation in violence in the middle east over the last two weeks. Gold now trades just below USD 2,000/oz. The USD 2,000/oz mark is clearly an important psychological level. A more crucial level is USD 2,100/oz. Gold prices have failed to breach 2,100 three times over the last three years. Gold prices are exhibiting a solid bullish momentum. It has surpassed two resistance levels (1,902.9 and 1,943.4). Price action is close to forming a golden cross between 9-day and 100-day simple moving average. Gold is likely to surpass the USD 2,000/oz over the next few days. However, passing the sticky USD 2,100/oz levels might be more challenging. The continuous rally over the past two weeks may be due for a correction if the momentum fails to hold. RSI has already raced past its upper bound. Large upward moves are known to be followed by sharp price pullbacks. SEASONAL DEMAND FROM GOLD MAJORS POSITIVELY AFFECTS GOLD PRICES The top two largest gold consumers are China and India. Combined, they represent ~50% of total global demand. Both paint a positive picture for gold demand. 1. Shrinking Premiums in China to bolster demand China represents 25% of global gold demand. China’s domestic gold availability has been strained over the past few months while demand has remained high leading to an all-time-high premium on domestic gold prices over international gold prices. These premiums have eased sharply over the past few days as supply conditions improve after China’s golden week holidays. Lower premium on domestic gold makes it an attractive buy. Furthermore, wholesale gold demand in China is showing signs of improvement. Gold ETFs are attracting notable inflows. The PBoC is building its gold reserves at a brisk pace. 2. Strong Monsoon cements solid demand for Gold in India India represents 24% of global gold demand. Monsoon and festivals have a major impact on Indian gold demand. Indian consumers buy gold as wedding gifts or as investments during festivals. Demand is expected to spike during the upcoming festival and wedding season. This year, India witnessed a wet monsoon which bodes well for farmers. Consequently, that is good for gold demand too. Rural India represents 60% of the country’s gold demand. As highlighted by Debbie Carlson in CME OpenMarkets , a wet monsoon leads to better harvests and higher earnings for farmers driving a positive effect on gold demand. GOLD PRICES ARE SIZZLING HOT Despite the bullish drivers, a major headwind to the gold demand is its high prices. Gold prices remain elevated. Higher prices lead to guarded consumers. With prices 9% higher YTD and 20% higher over the past one-year, the rally in prices until now has been rapid, making consumers wary of overinvesting in the yellow metal. Gold does not generate yields. It pays no dividends or interest. When risk free rates remain high, investing in gold is not lucrative. As the 10Y US Treasury yield stubbornly stays around 5%, investors opt for treasuries over gold. Gold prices are at record high in several non-USD currencies. That makes gold even more expensive. Weaker Indian Rupee and the Chinese Renminbi crushes domestic demand down. INSIGHTS FROM COMMITMENT OF TRADERS AND OPTIONS MARKET Asset managers had been building up net short positioning in CME Gold Futures until recently. Bearish sentiment in gold began in July, when investors started to anticipate further Fed rate hikes. Against the backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions, these asset managers are shifting away from net short to net long positioning over the last one week. Implied volatility on gold options has shot up to levels last seen during the banking crisis in March, but historical volatility remains far lower in comparison. This suggests potential for rising volatility ahead. Source: CVOL Skew on gold options have surged with call premiums having risen faster than put premiums. Source: CME Quikstrike Options traders are far more bullish than those trading Gold futures. Put/Call ratio for gold options is 0.52 implying two calls (bullish bets) for every put (bearish bet). Source: CME Quikstrike HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP A hypothetical long position in CME Micro Gold Futures can be used to harness gains from the overwhelmingly bullish sentiment in gold. CME Micro Gold Futures expiring in December (MCGZ23) provides exposure to 10 oz of gold. It requires an initial maintenance margin of USD 780 (as of 23rd Oct 2023). These micro contracts can be used to secure granular exposure in a capital efficient manner. Still, given the uncertainty and the risk for sharp reversal, a tight stop loss is appropriate to protect from a sharp price correction. Entry: USD 1,994 Target: USD 2,090 Stop Loss: USD 1,945 Profit at Target: USD 960 ((2090-1994) x 10) Loss at Stop: USD 490 ((1994-1945) x 10) Reward to Risk: 2.1x Alternatively, investors can deploy bull call spread on CME Gold Options expiring in December (OGF4) to express the view that gold may retest USD 2,100/oz but not rise beyond. A Bull Call Spread consists of a long call position at a lower strike (USD 2,020) and a short call position at a higher strike (USD 2,100). The position requires net premium of USD 2,400 (USD 4,970 - USD 2,570). The payoff for the hypothetical position is provided below. Both upside and downside for the position are fixed. Hypothetically, the position breaks even when prices reach USD 2,044/oz and has a maximum payoff of USD 5,600. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by mintdotfinance
Too steep, too quickly...After literally months of waiting, we finally signaled that gold had reached some attractive price levels on 2nd October 2023. Subsequently, gold bottomed out in the next four days and rose more than $150 from its lows. While these gains are impressive, we are starting to grow very skeptical about how much higher gold can go from the current level. That’s because stocks are beginning to manifest signs of weakness, and in the case of significant selling pressure in the stock market, we think investors will be forced to cover losses elsewhere by liquidating their gold position (especially willing to do so with its recent gains). Hence, we are on high alert and closely monitoring the situation. Technical analysis gauge Daily = Bearish Weekly = Slightly bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
4
Gold in danger as stocks keep fallingFinally, our expectations were fulfilled, and gold dropped below $1,900 yesterday. We continue to be bullish on gold in the long term. However, in the short and medium term, we are still inclined toward the scenario with gold sliding lower, likely testing $1,875 (and potentially $1,850 if the weakness in the stock market does not stop). Therefore, just like in the past few months, we remain waiting for a better opportunity to add more gold to our portfolio. Technical analysis Daily = Bearish Weekly = Bearish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
20
GOLD, Two Scenarios, One Outcome, Wedge-Breakout Incoming!Hello There! Welcome to my new analysis about GOLD on the daily timeframe perspectives. As I already mentioned within posts I uploaded within the recent times GOLD has a more bullish edge and potentials for new highs on the middle to long term perspective. Especially, because the demand and open interest by institutionals is increasing massively and some are speculating about a gold-backed currency which is likely to pump massive volumes into the GOLD market when this becomes reality. GOLD has been around for several thousands of years, it even did not collapsed after the end of the Bretton Woods gold-backed system, therefore it is no wonder that the GOLD price held stable and is looking for a breakout especially with the backing by the increased demand caused by a established war economy with the ongoing inflationary tensions and investors in search for a safe heaven to hedge against a next inflation wave and excess help package spendings not to mentioned that the GOLD price without inflation would have reached an all-time-high already. When looking at my chart now GOLD is now forming an important formation, such a formation is known for an exponential volatility breakout, and huge gains into the breakout direction. Especially within this current price dynamic with the broader global formation still aiming for a final breakout this formation is the equivalent of the broader formation on the daily timeframe perspective. The GOLD price-action is trading above several major support-zones here consisting of the 65-EMA, the 300-EMA, and the 500-EMA as well as the two ascending-trend-lines with one ascending-trend-line still backing the current price which is supporting the more likely scenario A with a 75% possibility, and the second ascending-trend-line to confirm a bounce and continuation to a final breakout if the less likely scenario B should emerge. Both scenarios are aiming for the final breakout-dynamic to setup in the next times and once the breakout has been emerged it will either activate the final target-zone A or the final target-zone B as they are marked in my chart. GOLD is now about to convert the whole formation into a massive breakout reaching local highs and when the demand in GOLD increases further because of a increased demand for a safe heaven and the inherent value of GOLD that did not lost it´s inherent value within the second half of the 20st century and the beginning of the 21st century. Considering the fact that GOLD lived throught many recessions, the dot-com bubble, the pandemic, the exploding historical high inflation since the 1970s bull-market confirms the major inherent value of GOLD as a legit crisis hedge and the fact that GOLD is now trading near it´s all-time-high with the non-inflation-adjusted price-action is underlining this standing of GOLD as a legit crisis hedge. The GOLD price should have reached an all-time-high already adjusted without inflation and still with non-inflation-adjusted price this all-time-high is likely to be reached. The next times will be highly important as GOLD is now boiling up for the next step to move into a major breakout firstly on the daily timeframe perspective and then also on the broader weekly timeframe perspective moving forward to complete the massive cup-and-handle formation. In the next time we will keep having GOLD on the watchlist and adjusting to the demand shock dynamics in commodities which has major potential to setup the next breakout wave for GOLD. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching, support is greatly appreciated, all the best! VP
TVC:GOLD
by VincePrince
3
XAUUSD: Buy signal if the price breaks over this Resistance.Gold turned bullish again on the 4H timeframe (RSI = 63.771, MACD = -1.560, ADX = 40.595) after crossing today over the two week Channel Down and naturally the 4H MA50 and MA200 periods. Following the 4H MACD Bullish Cross, this rally can extend to at least R2 and that's our bullish target (TP = 1,953). The entry signal will be closing over R1. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by InvestingScope
5
More downside for gold is probableIn line with our previous ideas and choppy price action, we continue to wait for a better opportunity to add gold to our portfolio. We are neutral to slightly bearish in the short term while bullish in the long term. However, we still deem a weakness in the stock market as a danger to the higher price of gold (at least for now). As a result, we believe gold's price is still not out of the woods. Indeed, we would not be surprised to see it plunge below $1,900 again in the foreseeable future. This possibility is indicated by technicals on the daily and weekly charts, which are growing increasingly bearish. Therefore, more weakness for gold is probable. We will update our thoughts on the asset with the emergence of new developments. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of MACD, which failed to hold above the midpoint. That is a bearish development. Technical analysis Daily = Bearish Weekly = Slightly bearish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
4
XAUUSD Sell inside the Channel Down, buy over it.Gold / XAUUSD is trading inside a Channel Down pattern since the start of the month. Today it hit the 1hour MA50 for the first time since Sep 4th and got rejected again. As long as the price is inside the Channel Down, sell and target 1910 (-0.72% decline). If it crosses above Fibonacci 0.236, buy and target 1933 (1hour MA200 and Fibonacci 0.5). Observation 1. Notice the bullish divergence on the 1hour RSI. Observation 2. All Fibonacci retracement levels are harmonically aligned with the Channel's Lower Highs. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TheCryptagon
Unclear path for gold Almost two weeks ago, we touted gold’s retest of the support at $1,900 and the potential continuation lower to $1,875. However, soon after that, gold halted its decline slightly below $1,885 and reversed. Subsequently, it went above $1,920. For the most part, this move coincided with the relief in the stock market. Therefore, we remain on high alert and somewhat undecided about the next path for gold. Technicals on the daily time frame turned slightly bullish, with Stochastic and RSI pointing to the upside. But DM+ and DM- still suggest the presence of a downtrend, and MACD hovers in the bearish territory. To bolster a bullish case in the short term/medium term, we would like to see MACD break above the midpoint and RSI with Stochastic continue to develop bullish structures. Besides that, we want to see the stock market stabilizing (as we think the market weakness still threatens the higher price of gold). To summarize this short article, we are neutral in the short-term and medium-term and bullish in the long term. In accordance with that, we continue to wait for a better opportunity to buy gold. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD and two simple moving averages that act as alternative resistance levels. In the next few days, we will observe their ability to stop the rising prices. Technical analysis Daily = Neutral/Slightly bullish Weekly = Slightly bearish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Tradersweekly
Gold: Having a 'Metal' Breakdown 😫The price of gold is currently experiencing a notable downward trend, aligning with our initial predictions. Anticipating further declines, we foresee the price dropping below the support level of $19 000. This descent could lead to the formation of the low point for the orange wave iii. However, we maintain a 25% probability of a potential upward movement. In an alternate scenario, the price would need to establish the blue wave alt.(ii) within the $2014.8 to $2064.5 range before beginning its downward trajectory.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by MarketIntel
Choppiness to translate into weakness?The gold market has been volatile in the past few days, prompting us to maintain a neutral stance in the short term. However, what caught our interest during this time was MACD trying to cross through the midpoint on the daily chart. If successful, this event will likely coincide with more weakness in gold, potentially dragging it toward the area between $1,900 and 1,910 (and eventually, maybe even lower). Besides concerning MACD, indicators like RSI and Stochastic also show bearish signs. As a result, we are growing a bit bearish on gold in the short term (though we remain bullish in the long term). It would not surprise us to see investors take profits from gold if the selloff in stocks continues. We saw this occurrence in 2022 on multiple occasions, and we think it is also a real possibility in the future. Therefore, we continue to wait for a better bargain before adding more gold to our portfolio. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily MACD approaching the midpoint. Technical analysis Daily = Slightly bearish Weekly = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Tradersweekly
17
XAUUSD Buy signal on the MA50 (1d).Gold is rising today as the 4 day pull-back made a stop near the bottom of the Channel Up. At the same time it stayed over the MA50 (1d), which since July 12th has been closing all (1d) candles over it. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. Targets: 1. 2015 (Higher High on the Channel Up, a little under Resistance 2). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) is rebounding on the MA trendline. It is identical to the July 6th bottom rebound that led to a Higher High. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingBrokersView
6
XAUUSD The first Golden Cross (4h) since March can deliver 2005.Gold is trading inside a Channel Up that got it off the prior downtrend as it crossed above the MA50 (1d). The price hit the top of the Channel Up, so a pullback is expected, same as July 3rd and July 10th. Perhaps the most important development today is the first Golden Cross (4h) since March 15th. Trading Plan: 1. Buy near 1,966. Targets: 1. 2005 (top of Channel Up). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) is perhaps more illustrative of the expected minor pullback as it appears to have completed a leg similar to those that peaked on July 7th and June 30th. Also there is a Rising Support to consider for the Channel Up. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingBrokersView
1
XAUUSD can reach 2150 within September-October.Gold / XAUUSD has started the new bullish leg of the 8 month Channel Up, as it is about to complete three straight green weeks. This hasn't been done since March 13th. The 1day RSI just crossed over the MA trendline, a strong bullish signal as well. Both previous Bullish Legs of the Channel Up rose by at least +13.50%, so use that as the standard technical target. Buy and target 2150. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TheCryptagon
5
Gold: Rearing up 🐎Gold has been rearing up once more but should soon return below the support at $1936 to continue the overarching downwards movement until the low of wave (4) in yellow is found, which we expect to happen below the turquoise zone between $1840 and $1713. However, there is a 30% chance that the precious metal could use the turquoise zone to finish wave alt.2 in turquoise instead. In that case, gold would turn upwards from there, rising back above $1936 and further northwards.
COMEX:GC1!
by MarketIntel
XAUUSD: Hit the 1D MA50 after nearly 2 months.Gold crossed over the 1D MA50 today for the first time in almost 2 months (since May 17th). As the 1D timeframe turned bullish again (RSI = 58.454, MACD = -7.380, ADX = 44.489) this is the first major bullish signal of a projected new long term rally. However we will wait until the first 1D candle close over the 1D MA50 and make a confirmed buy entry. Our first target is the R2 (TP1 = 1,985.50) just under the 0.5 Fibonacci level and second the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP2 = 2,041.00) just under the R3. It has to be mentioned that the price also crossed above the 1D MA100 today. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by InvestingScope
XAUUSD The Resistance is the catalyst for the direction.Gold / XAUUSD continues to trade inside a Channel Down, consolidating near Resistance A (1937.50) after the recent Lower Low. Every candle close under this Resistance is a sell call. Short and target Support at 1895. Any 1day candle close over the Resistance is a trend change call. Long and target Resistance B and the 1day MA50 at 1955. The RSI's Rectangle matches the Channel Down Highs and Lows. Use it for additional entries. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TheCryptagon
1