XAUUSD: Hit the 1D MA50 after nearly 2 months.Gold crossed over the 1D MA50 today for the first time in almost 2 months (since May 17th). As the 1D timeframe turned bullish again (RSI = 58.454, MACD = -7.380, ADX = 44.489) this is the first major bullish signal of a projected new long term rally.
However we will wait until the first 1D candle close over the 1D MA50 and make a confirmed buy entry. Our first target is the R2 (TP1 = 1,985.50) just under the 0.5 Fibonacci level and second the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP2 = 2,041.00) just under the R3.
It has to be mentioned that the price also crossed above the 1D MA100 today.
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Goldfutures
XAUUSD The Resistance is the catalyst for the direction.Gold / XAUUSD continues to trade inside a Channel Down, consolidating near Resistance A (1937.50) after the recent Lower Low.
Every candle close under this Resistance is a sell call. Short and target Support at 1895.
Any 1day candle close over the Resistance is a trend change call. Long and target Resistance B and the 1day MA50 at 1955.
The RSI's Rectangle matches the Channel Down Highs and Lows. Use it for additional entries.
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Selling pressure on halt and potential trend reversal In our previous article on gold, we noted that we were still not turning bullish in the short-term as technicals on the daily and weekly time frame pointed to more downside. However, prior to that, we also noted that one development stood out to us, and it was decreasing volume accompanying the falling price. We stated this was a positive development for gold, suggesting that selling pressure has declined. Subsequently, we touted to watch this metric in the next few days. Following lows near $1,893, volume continued to fall, further fortifying our assessment about decreasing selling pressure (now suggesting that the short-term trend might be finally reversing from bearish to bullish). Consequently, we change our short-term stance from bearish to neutral. For us to grow bullish, we would like to see gold break above its 20-day SMA and hold above this level. In case of a drop in the price, we would like to see it hold above $1,910. If the price fails to do so, it will raise our concern over more downside for gold.
Technical analysis
Daily = Bearish
Weekly = Bearish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
XAUUSD: Breakout now retesting the Support. Buy.Gold broke on Friday over the LH trendline and reached the 4H MA50 for the first time in 10 days. The rejection is now retesting the LH in the form of Support, as it happened on the May 30th bullish breakout. That was the leg to the top of the Channel Down. With the 4H timeframe being neutral (RSI = 46.429, MACD = -2.220, ADX = 38.259) and the RSI on the same bullish divergence, we are buying into this retest and target the top of the Channel Down and contact tranjectory with the 4H MA200 (TP = 1,943).
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GOLD - Short active ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on XAUUSD.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bearish market structure from 1H timeframe perspective, so I am looking for shorts from premium zone. I expect bearish price action from here as we can see that price filled perfectly the imbalance and rejected from bearish order block.
Fundamental analysis: Upcoming week on Thursday and Friday we have news on USD. Pay attention to the results in order to validate the analysis.
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XAUUSD 4hour MA50 test. Buy if broken.Gold / XAUUSD keeps its short term Channel Down intact and is now testing the 4hour MA50 for the first time in 10 days.
Buy if broken and target the top of the Channel Down at 1930.
Extend buying only above Resistance A (1937.50) and target Resistance B (1957).
Until that happens, take a low risk / high reward sell targeting Support A at 1895.
Keep in mind that the 4hour RSI crossed over its Channel Down already and is on a Rising Support, meaning a Bullish Divergence. This may be an early signal for a longer term bullish reversal.
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XAUUSD Rebounding after a Channel Down Lower High.Gold is on a technical rebound after it hit the bottom of the 1 month Channel Down.
It remains under both the MA50 and MA200 (4h) indicating significant short term upside potential.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1950 (under the Falling Resistance on a potential contact course with the MA200 (4h).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) got oversold on Friday and is now neutral, a further indication of the strong short term upside potential.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
XAUUSD: Reached the bottom of the 8 month Channel Up. Strong buyGold hit the bottom of the Channel Up that started back in November turning the 1D technicals bearish (RSI = 38.023, MACD = -15.070, ADX = 40.852). The 1D RSI in particular is printing a sequence very much like the Channel's previous bottom on February 27th. On both patterns Gold traded under the 1D MA50 for long, this time has been under it since May 17th.
We are taking this rare long term opportunity to go long and target initially the R1 (TP = 1,970) on a potential contact with the 1D MA50. Then we will see if it's worth adding a buy on the next pull back as long as the Channel Up bottom holds and start targeting the upper R levels.
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XAUUSD Sell signal inside the Channel DownGold crossed under both the 4hour MA50 and the RSI's MA, which has been a strong signal since the start of June.
During that time the price has been trading inside a Channel Down.
Sell on this confirmed signal and target 1920 which will make a new Lower Low.
This pattern gets invalidated only if the price crosses over Resistance A.
In that case target first the 4hour MA200 at 1975 and then Resistance B (1985.50) in extension.
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XAUUSD Channel Down emerging but reversal if MA50 (1d) breaksGold is forming a Channel Down with the price hitting today its top.
The price has been neutral on the long term under the MA50 (1d) since May 17th (1 month).
Until that breaks, sell every high on the short term.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy if the price crosses and closes over the Channel Down.
2. Sell for as long as it remains under it.
Targets:
1. 1980 (MA50 1d)
2. 1915 (bottom of Channel Down).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is over its MA trendline with its bottom coming on May 25th. This potentially indicates the necessity for this correction and sideways consolidation since May 17th after Gold was overbought for far too long the previous months. Overall this is a slightly bullish indicator for the long term.
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XAUUSD: Forming a medium term Channel Down.Gold turned neutral again on its 1D technicals (RSI = 48.178, MACD = -10.040, ADX = 34.352) after the strong rebound at 1,924.70. This pushed the price back over the 4H MA50, even closed a candle over it but today's LL is a new bottom and technically calls for the emergence of a Channel Down pattern.
This pattern's RSI has a clear Buy and Sell Zone. As long as the top of the Channel Down holds, we will be bearish targeting the LL trendline (TP = 1,915). If it crosses over it, we will take a fast buy and target the 4H MA200 (TP = 1,977), which is unbroken for a full month. Only a cross over the R2 (1,985.50) can reverse the trend to bullish.
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XAUUSD Almost 1 month ranged inside the 1day MA50-100.Gold / XAUUSD has almost completed 1 month trapped by 1day candle closings inside the 1day MA50 and 1day MA100.
The 1day MA100 in particular has served as the long term Support inside the wider Channel Up pattern since November 10th 2022.
Apart from scalping the MA50-100 range, take advantage of the breakouts on the long term.
Buy after a closing over the 1day MA50 and target 2020. Same with breaking over Resistance B and target 2080 (Resistance C).
Sell after a closing under the Channel Up bottom and target the 1day MA200 at 1860.
Added information: The 1day MACD just made a Buy Cross, same as March 3rd which was a market bottom.
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XAUUSD Bullish Cross on 4h targeting Triangle's topGold has just formed a Bullish Cross between the MA50 and MA100 on the (4h) time frame.
Besides this buy signal, the price is holding the MA50 (4h) as Support.
The whole price action is supported by the Rising Support of this medium term Triangle pattern.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy as long as the price is closing over the MA50 (4h).
2. If it breaks, buy near the Rising Support.
Targets:
1. and 2. 1983 (under Resistance 1 and MA200 (4h)).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is trading inside a Channel Up since the price started the Triangle. The price near the Channel's bottom is a buy and near its top is a sell.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
XAUUSD: Strong buy signal targeting the 4H MA200Gold hit yesterday the HL trendline, which is the bottom of a Triangle pattern that has the R1 (1,985.50) as the Top, and is rebounding. This rebound was also made on the 1D MA100, the third time this happens in the past 10 days. The rise has already reached the 4H MA50 and turned both the 1D but more importantly the 4H timeframe (RSI = 49.565, MACD = -1.650, ADX = 18.715) neutral.
We are already bullish, targeting the 4H MA200 with TP = 1,980. If we close over the R1 on a full 1D candle, we will enter a buy again, targeting towards R1 (TP = 2,020). The 4H RSI is having a clear Buy Zone since May 25th, that might be useful as this rise continues for buying upon pull backs.
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XAUUSD rebounded over the 4hour MA50 again. Bottom confirmed.Gold / XAUUSD hit the 1day MA100 and rebounded again over the 4hour MA50. That is the same bottom confirmation signal that the market gave on March 9th.
The 4hour MACD is about to make the 3rd straight Buy Cross on a Rising Support again same as in March.
Buy and target 1985.50 (Resistance A) short term, 2020 (Resistance B) medium term and 2080 long term.
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XAUUSD: Technical pull back after bullish breakout. Buy.Gold made the expected bottom and rebound on the 1D MA100 and crossed over the LH of the May corrective wave. It also broke over the 4H MA50 with technicals turning bullish just before today's pull back that brought them back to neutral (RSI = 44.078, MACD = 2.520, ADX - 28.652). This is a standard technical pull back for Support retesting after a bullish breakout. The price remains inside the High Fluctation Zone of 1,951 - 1,984.65.
The 4H RSI is nearing the bottom of its Channel Up and that is an early buy signal for XAUUSD. If the price bottoms here and forms a Channel Up then we will buy and target its top (TP = 2,000).
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Gold and stocks are showing more signs of decouplingAfter expressing our concerns about gold's rally in early May 2023, we saw it tumble as low as $1,932.11 just two days ago. Since this low, gold’s price rebounded above $1,970 and then weakened again. Currently, it trades near $1,955 per troy ounce. That brings us to a similar assessment as in our previous article, and we will pay attention to the two closest levels of importance, particularly near $1,952 (support) and $1,959 (resistance). If the price breaks below the support, it will be bearish for the short-term; contrarily, if it breaks and holds above the resistance, it will be bullish. Regarding technical indicators on the daily time frame, we are observing MACD, which is slightly flattening; if it starts turning to the upside (and eventually breaks above the midpoint), it will be a bullish sign. The same applies to rising RSI and Stochastic (and also to converging DM+ and DM-).
As for our current stance, we continue to be worried about gold’s performance in the short term as it is still possible that more downside will follow. Despite that, there is one development we are starting to notice increasingly more. Last year, when the stock market was declining, it weighed on gold, which saw investors taking profits in order to cover losses elsewhere. As of late, however, gold has been sold off as the stock market turned into this “complacency” phase, with approximately six companies dragging the whole U.S. market higher. We plan to be attentive to this decoupling, as it might be a very important development for gold going forward, and we can start seeing it perform well despite stocks selling off.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish crossover between the 20-day SMA and the 50-day SMA. We will pay close attention to volume. If it continues to decline, that might suggest that the selling pressure is cooling off.
Technical analysis
Daily = Bearish
Weekly = Slightly bearish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Gold: Splish Splash 💦🫧Splish splash, I was taking a bath,
Long about a Saturday night, yeah.
A rub dub, just relaxing in the tub,
Thinking everything was alright.
Like Bobby Darlin in his song, gold should also take a refreshing bath in the turquoise zone between $1840 and $1713 soon. Therefore, it must drop below the support at $1936 to gain further downwards momentum. Thus refreshed, the precious metal should leave the turquoise zone on the southern side and continue the descent until the low of wave (4) in yellow is established. However, there is a 30% chance that gold could finish wave alt.2 in turquoise instead and subsequently rise from the turquoise zone to start an upwards movement, which should carry it back above $1936.
XAUUSD is now a buy opportunityGold / XAUUSD is trading on the 1day MA100 at the bottom of the long term Channel Up.
The downside potential is technically limited to a -7.95% decline on the dotted Channel trend line.
The lowest risk trade is to buy after the price crosses above the 4hour MA50.
Target 2080 (All Time High).
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GOLD - Long from discount zone ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on XAUUSD.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from daily perspective, so I am looking for longs from discount zone. I expect price to continue the retracement to fill the imbalances lower and then to reject from bullish order block.
Fundamental analysis: Next week on Friday we have news on USD, will be released monthly NFP and Unemployment Rate. Pay attention to the results in order to validate the analysis.
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Gold's struggle ahead?In the last article, we expressed a bullish bias for gold in the long term. However, we also noted that we could not ignore certain worrying signs that were putting us on a high alert in the short term; in particular, we mentioned 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA closing the gap and low volume accompanying the price higher. Since then, the price of gold has slumped from $2,027 to $1,955, representing approximately a 3.5% decline.
At the moment, a significant development we are closely tracking is whether the 20-day SMA drops beneath the 50-day SMA; if yes, then it will bolster the bearish case in the short-term/medium-term. Besides that, we also pay close attention to the support levels at $1,959 and $1,952; if the price breaks below them, it will be bearish for the short term. Contrarily, if the supports halt the selling pressure, it will be positive for gold. As for some other developments on the daily chart, we are watching RSI and MACD, which are both bearish; in fact, MACD broke below the midpoint, which suggests more downside for the short-term. Consequently, we stay on high alert.
In regard to the price target on the downside, we abstain from setting one as we deem it difficult to assess. But, in our opinion, the $1,925 or $1,900 (and potentially even $1,875) price tags are not out of reach. Because of that, we think it is still prudent to wait for a better price and stay on the sidelines.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. Yellow arrows indicate gold’s failures to overtake all-time highs.
Technical analysis
Daily = Bearish
Weekly = Neutral/Slightly bearish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Gold reaffirms its position of "safe heaven"In the current financial landscape, gold continues to emerge as a resilient asset, demonstrating impressive growth year to date. With an 11% increase in value thus far, gold's performance surpassed last year's modest 1.3% gain during the same period. This remarkable appreciation can be attributed to a combination of multiple factors, including economic uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and investor sentiment. As the world grapples with these challenges, gold continues to solidify its position as a safe haven for investors seeking stability and a hedge against financial turbulence. Moreover, the ongoing strength of this precious metal reaffirms its enduring appeal as a strategic investment choice in an unpredictable global economy.
While we maintain a bullish stance on gold in the long term, we must also consider the potential impact of stock market fluctuations on gold prices. As seen in previous instances, a weakening stock market can weigh on the price of gold, much like it did last year. With this in mind, we believe it would be prudent for investors to wait for a significant pullback in the price before adding more to their positions.
In our previous article, we highlighted the deviation of gold's price from its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which could have foreshadowed a retracement toward this indicator. Since then, the price has remained highly volatile, yet it has failed to retrace toward the 50-day SMA; in fact, the price and 50-day SMA have been gradually closing this gap. Nevertheless, we will continue to closely monitor key metrics, such as the 50-day and 20-day SMAs, along with trading volume, which has been declining since May 4th, 2023, when gold nearly broke above an all-time high. The decreasing volume is not particularly bullish and puts us on high alert.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. The red arrow shows declining volume since 4th May 2023.
Technical analysis
Daily = Neutral
Weekly = Bullish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Possible correction in Gold, $XAUUSDOn the daily chart, Gold (XAUUSD) has formed a rising wedge which is a bearish pattern. This was followed by a sharp bear trap and a double rejection of the bulls at the consolidation zone.
We are looking at a possible correction in the price of gold in the coming days toward 1982/1934 zones.