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Gold Price Analysis Ahead of FOMC September 18Fundamental Analysis On the day of the Fed's announcement, markets continued to price in a 65% chance of a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut, CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed, reviving selling interest around the US dollar (USD), as US Treasury yields also turned defensive amid cautious markets. As such. Gold prices are attempting to reclaim all-time highs just shy of $2,600, as attention turns to the Fed's decision, Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference and the Dot Plot, all of which will help gauge the US central bank's future policy actions. If the Fed delivers a 25 basis point rate cut later this Wednesday, it could send the US dollar soaring. However, the immediate reaction to the Fed's announcements could be overshadowed by the implications of the Fed's projections and Powell's words. Therefore, gold prices are still subject to strong fluctuations in the Fed event. Conversely, if the Fed acknowledges the potential risks to inflation and maintains a cautious tone, this could bring the hawks back into the game, negatively affecting the non-interest-bearing gold price. Technical analysis Gold is breaking the downside price band and approaching the resistance level around 2575. If it fails to break this zone before the US session, we can SELL and hold to 255x and 2545 when the FOMC announces to BUY back up and hold to 262x. In case of breaking the 2575 zone, we will not SELL and wait for the candle to close above 258x and BUY when the 2575 zone is retested. Hold until the FOMC does not break the new ATH, then we exit the order. Breakout upper limit: 2582 - 2591 - 2603 Upper resistance: 2581 - 2590 - 2600 - 2605 - 2615 - 2626 - 2645 Breakout lower limit: 2570 - 2563 - 2550 - 2538 Support: 2572 - 2564 - 2552 - 2545 - 2539 - 2525 - 2516 Pay attention to the trend zone around 2580 above. Sell the price zone 2603-2605. Stoploss 2609 Watch for BUY 2564 - 2562. Stoploss 2558 Watch for BUY 2545 - 2547. Stoploss 2541
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
2
Gold price todayToday, gold price touched $2571 and did not change much from yesterday's trading session with stability above the highs in early Wednesday. Today there is no strong news and I will focus on the analysis on the 4-hour chart of #GOLD. From a close observation, the trend line and the price wedge both show an uptrend, however it is limited below the resistance of the uptrend channel. Based on previous reactions, I first expect the price to correct at the present time. My strategy today is to hold the short position until the specified target.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BB_TradingFX
1
Gold price analysis September 16Fundamental Analysis Gold prices edged lower from fresh record highs around the $2,589-$2,590 region hit on Monday. The intraday decline could be attributed to some profit-taking amid generally positive risk sentiment, which tends to weigh on the safe-haven precious metal. However, any meaningful declines appear to be limited amid expectations of a more aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) easing. In fact, markets have begun to price in an over-the-top 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed later this week after data released last week provided further evidence of subdued US inflation. This has kept US Treasury yields and the US dollar (USD) near 2024 lows, which in turn will continue to act as a driver of non-yielding gold prices. Traders may also refrain from placing heavy bets ahead of the FOMC’s two-day policy meeting starting on Tuesday. This is followed by monetary policy updates from the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Thursday and Friday, respectively, which could inject some volatility into the markets and provide fresh impetus to Gold prices. Hence, any meaningful corrective pullback could still be seen as a buying opportunity. Technical Analysis Gold is at an all-time high, so any bullish momentum will only be met with resistance at the psychological levels of 2600 and 2610. Support areas to place confidence in further buying are around 2570-2545. In today's European session, if gold breaks 2590, it is possible to execute SELL signals around 2600 and 2690. In case it does not break until the middle of the European session, SELL gold to 2570 before the US. If it breaks 2570 before the US session, hold until 2560-2545. Resistance: 2590 - 2600 - 2608 - 2612 - 2626 - 2645 Support: 2580 - 2571 - 2560 - 2545 SELL 2599 - 2601 Stoploss 2605 BUY 2567 - 2565. Stoploss 2561 BUY 2555 - 2553. Stoploss 2549
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
EURUSD Analysis Week 38🌐Fundamental Analysis EUR/USD returned to the 1.1100 level on Friday, before market forces once again weighed on the Euro and sent Fiber back to its opening price. The pair failed to make a near-term technical recovery as traders turned their attention to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate call next week. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut its benchmark interest rate, the deposit facility, by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.5% as expected. The ECB also cut the rate on its marginal lending facility and main refinancing operations by 60 bps. In her post-meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde refrained from hinting at the timing of the next rate cut. While the ECB event failed to boost the Euro, renewed selling pressure around the US Dollar (USD) helped the EUR/USD pair gain. On an annual basis, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July and below market expectations of 1.8%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September rose above 40% following the data, according to CME's FedWatch Tool, triggering a sell-off in the USD. 🕯Technical Analysis After peaking around 1.110, a short-term downtrend channel has formed, the support of the downtrend channel remains at around 1.099 and 1.093. These two key support levels will keep the pair stable in the trend. On the other hand, if this short-term downtrend is broken, the 1.115 area will be a key resistance before looking to last month's high around 1.119. 📈📉Trading Signals SELL EURUSD zone 1.114-1.116 Stoploss 1.118 BUY EURUSD zone 1.099-1.097 Stoploss 1.095
by TVS-Trader
Gold analysis september 11Fundamental Analysis The steady rise continued throughout the early part of the European session and took the commodity to a fresh weekly high, with buyers now looking to build on the upside momentum beyond the $2,525-2,526 supply zone. The US Dollar (USD) is struggling to capitalize on the gains recorded over the past three days and retreated from the monthly top amid dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed). This, in turn, is seen as a key factor driving flows towards the non-yielding yellow metal. Meanwhile, a weaker risk-on sentiment in general has prompted some safe-haven flows and lifted Gold closer to its all-time high in the last hour. However, bulls may refrain from positioning for any further upside moves and prefer to pause ahead of the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures. The key US CPI report will play a key role in influencing market expectations on the size of the Fed’s September rate cut and determine the next leg of the directional move for the precious metal. Technical Analysis Gold’s push to 2529 in European trading promises a breakout of all-time highs early today. The current key zone around 2529 in European trading could push prices back to 2540. The top is a push to the psychological port zone which is also the Fibonacci level of 2555. Conversely, if 2029 fails to break, prices could soon push to the 2517 zone before the CPI data and also the US session. and revisit the 2495 support zone and 2555 resistance when the news is released. because if the news pushes up, there will be no good entry to sell until the 2540 and 2555 areas. Resistance above: 2535 - 2540 - 2550-2555… Support: 2512 - 2506 - 2499 - 2493 - 2485 SELL 2537 - 2529 Stoploss 2442 SELL 2554 - 2556 Stoploss 2559 BUY 2508 - 2506 Stoploss 2503 BUY 2496 - 2494. Stoploss 2491
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Gold price analysis September 10Fundamental Analysis Gold prices struggled to capitalize on yesterday’s rebound from the $2,485 support zone and attracted some selling on Tuesday. However, the commodity held above the psychological $2,500 mark during the early part of the European session as traders appeared reluctant to place directional bets ahead of this week’s US inflation figures. The key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for release on Wednesday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. The data will influence market expectations on the size of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut later this month and provide fresh directional impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal. Heading into the key data risk, the US Dollar (USD) edged closer to the monthly high reached last week amid bearish bets for a larger Fed rate cut in September. This, coupled with a solid performance in global equity markets, is seen undermining safe-haven Gold. Despite the decline, XAU/USD remains confined within a familiar range that has been maintained for about the past three weeks, indicating hesitation among traders about the short-term trajectory. This makes it more prudent to wait for a sharp sell-off to follow before positioning for the recent pullback from the vicinity of the all-time high tested after the release of the mixed US jobs report last Friday. Technical Analysis Gold is still approaching the key 2507 price zone. The European session is trying to push above this level to resume the uptrend. SELL signal in this area can be when the price pushes up in the middle of the European session and cannot break it, we SELL and hold until the US session. If the 2495 area is broken, we hold until the US session at the 2483 area. In case gold increases to 2507, we do not BUY and wait to SELL in the 2515-2517 area. The destination is the 2507-2505 area. SELL 2516 - 2518. Stoploss 2522 BUY 2485 - 2483. Stoploss 2479 BUY 2473 - 2471. Stoploss 2467
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
GBPUSD week 37 analysis🌐Fundamental Analysis GBPUSD fell sharply after hitting a fresh weekly high above the 1.3200 round-figure resistance against the US Dollar (USD) during Friday's North American session. The GBP/USD pair fell as the US Dollar rebounded strongly following the US (US) Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data for August. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the Greenback against six major currencies, recovered strongly to near 101.40 after falling to near 100.60. The short-term outlook for the British currency remains upbeat recently as investors expect the BoE's policy easing cycle to be shallower than that of other central banks. The main reason behind the strong speculation of a gradual BoE easing cycle is that the economy is performing better than previously expected and the fact that inflation in the services sector remains high. In the UK economic calendar next week, investors will focus on the Employment data for the quarter ending in July and the monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for July. Both of these figures could be key to determining what the BoE will decide to do with interest rates when it meets later this month. 📊Technical Analysis The NFP pullback is approaching the 1.308 support zone. The uptrend is still strong with a possible retracement to the 1.0 Fibonacci around the 1.301 zone to bounce back to wave 5 and complete the bullish wave pattern. 1.334 would be a nice Fibonacci resistance zone where we can look at the reaction to execute the SELL signals. In the opposite direction, the Dow breakout of wave 1 formed a strong support level around 1.288. The EMA 34 is gradually decreasing in slope compared to the EMA 89, showing that the market structure is leaning towards the upside but not as strong as last week. Support: 1.301-1.299 Resistance: 1.322- 1.334 🕯Trading Signals BUY GBPUSD: 1.301-1.299 Stoploss 1.297 BUY GBPUSD: 1.288-1.286 Stoploss 1.284 SELL GBPUSD 1.334-1.336 Stoploss 1.338
by TVS-Trader
Gold Price Analysis September 6Fundamental Analysis Gold prices attracted some buyers for the third straight day on Friday and traded near weekly highs heading into the European session. However, the gains lacked bullish sentiment as investors opted to wait for the release of the key US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report before placing any fresh bets. Meanwhile, rising bets for more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September weighed on the US Dollar (USD) for the third straight day and provided some support to the non-yielding yellow metal. Meanwhile, a mixed batch of US employment data released this week suggested the labour market is losing momentum and raised concerns about the health of the economy. This, coupled with persistent geopolitical tensions, dampened investor appetite for riskier assets and turned out to be another factor that acted as a driver of safe-haven Gold prices. However, it would be wise to wait for some follow-through buying before positioning for an extension of the two-day uptrend ahead of key US macro data risks. Technical Analysis Gold is looking to make an ATH in today’s US session. The re-approach to the 2523 zone in yesterday’s evening session and the liquid pullback to the 2508 zone and back to the top as the European session began have prompted investors to buy to push prices higher in the US session. The key price zone of 2526 on the breakout in today’s European session is definitely a new all-time high for Gold. Gold will at least reach 2526 or 2533 before a sharp decline. Now the US session begins and gold pushes down first, the US's upward force will be greater and it is possible to reach the sell zone of 254x. Resistance: 2526 - 2532 - 2542 - 2555 Support: 2493 - 2485 - 2472 - 2461 - 2454 - 2440 SELL price zone 2530 - 2532 stoploss 2536 BUY price zone 2499 - 2497 stoploss 2492 BUY price zone 2460 - 2462 stoploss 2456
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Gold Analysis September 5☘️Fundamental Analysis Gold prices edged up in Asian trade on Thursday. A US jobs report showed on Wednesday that employment fell to a three-and-a-half-year low in July, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further in September, which in turn acted as a boost for the non-yielding yellow metal. Moreover, concerns about the health of the US economy dampened investor appetite for riskier assets, further supporting the safe-haven precious metal. However, gold prices lacked strong buying interest as traders appeared reluctant to place strong bullish bets, preferring to wait for key details on the US monthly employment report - commonly known as the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report - due on Friday. Meanwhile, the US economic agenda on Thursday - including the ADP report on private sector employment, the weekly jobless claims and the ISM services PMI - will be looked at for short-term opportunities. However, expectations of the imminent start of the Fed's policy easing cycle could continue to support Gold. ☘️Technical Analysis Gold is moving back in the sideways range of 2490-2505. After an old liquidity sweep to 2472. The Asian session's upside momentum is not strong enough to break the technical level of 2508. When the European session pushes up to 2508 without breaking through, we can set up a SELL signal at this area. The sell trend may extend further than there is still a way to move up to ATH. Today, when the US session enters, pay attention to the resistance zone of 2512-2514 for a SELL strategy. And the push to the low zone this week and next week could create momentum for the FOMC to push gold to a new ATH. Resistance: 2505 - 2509 - 2515 - 2524 - 2535 Support: 2491 - 2485 - 2472 - 2461 - 2454 - 2440 SELL price zone 2513 - 2515 stoploss 2518 BUY price zone 2460 - 2462 stoploss 2456 BUY price zone 2480 - 2478 stoploss 2475Gold Analysis September 5
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
GOLD SELL Idea | $2480-2435 expected- Gold prices remained close to their recent all-time highs last week, driven by strong market sentiment and expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. This optimism follows comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who suggested a potential policy shift, fueling speculation that the Fed may reduce rates by 25 basis points, with some possibility of a 50-basis-point cut. This expectation has been a key factor in sustaining gold’s rally. - On Friday, gold prices experienced a slight decline due to profit-taking after the release of U.S. inflation data. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which rose by 0.2% in July, met expectations and confirmed that inflation is no longer the Fed's main concern. Instead, the Fed is focusing on unemployment and economic growth, with revised Q2 GDP growth of 3% and declining jobless claims reducing fears of a recession. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East with the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, have also increased demand for gold as a safe haven. Central banks have continued to purchase gold, further supporting prices, with some analysts predicting that gold could approach $3,000 by the end of the year. - Looking ahead, the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report will be crucial in determining the Fed's next move. A weaker-than-expected jobs report could increase the likelihood of a larger rate cut, potentially driving gold prices higher. However, traders should be cautious of potential risks, such as weak physical demand in major Asian markets like China and the fact that many investors are already heavily positioned in gold, which could limit further gains.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GOLDFXCC
GOLD analysis week 36🌐Fundamental Analysis: Gold prices fell about 1% as the US dollar and US Treasury yields rose sharply after US inflation data matched expectations over the weekend. However, given the Federal Reserve's September rate cut and geopolitical tensions remain a risk, gold still has plenty of potential support on a fundamental level. Gold prices closed slightly lower this week but still held the $2,500/ounce mark. Next week, investors will receive US ISM data and non-farm payrolls reports, which are expected to cause major fluctuations in the gold market. Next week's NFP data will be the main focus, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other members have also focused heavily on the upcoming employment data during the Jackson Hole conference. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East have boosted safe-haven demand for gold. Signs of steady buying from central banks in emerging markets also support prices. 📊Technical analysis: Looking at the D candle, selling pressure has started to appear on gold. The buying pressure at the end of the day is insignificant and there are ready to be more sell-offs next week. Returning to the familiar H4 time frame, the breakout area of ​​2512 becomes the immediate resistance zone to push gold prices deeper. The declines may extend to the 2485 area and even the 2470 area next week. The downtrend is the path of least resistance for gold. After rejecting the resistance level of 2525 many times, gold may easily break through this hook once again and move straight to the important resistance zones of 2530-2540-2550. Resistance: 2412 - 2420 - 2430 - 2440 - 2450 Support: 2494 - 2485 - 2470 🕯Trading Signal: BUY GOLD 2485-2483 Stoploss 2480 BUY GOLD 2472-2470 Stoploss 2467 SELL GOLD 2513-2515 Stoploss 2518 SELL GOLD 2530-2532 Stoploss 2535
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
GBPUSD analysis week 36 🌐Fundamental Analysis The British Pound (GBP) extended its two-day losing streak and hit a fresh intraday low below 1.3150 against the US Dollar (USD) in the North American session on Friday. The GBP/USD pair failed to gain as the US Dollar strengthened following the release of weaker-than-expected US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for July. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the Greenback against six major currencies, surged above 101.50. The impact of PCE inflation data is traditionally high as it is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure for making interest rate decisions. This time, the impact of core inflation data is expected to remain limited to market speculation on the Fed’s rate cut path this year. Currently, financial market participants expect that the Fed will almost certainly start cutting interest rates in September. However, signs of rigidity in price pressures from PCE inflation data have reduced bets supporting the Fed to start a strong policy easing cycle. 📊Technical analysis As analyzed last week, GBPUSD has retreated when it reached a strong resistance zone. The retreat may continue next week to attract buyers to push the price up further. In fact, GBPUSD is in a strong uptrend. On the D1 time frame, the EMA 34 is sloping up sharply compared to the EMA 89, indicating that the market structure is leaning towards the upside, the retreat is only pushing the price up in the near future. The nearest trading range is around 1,300-1,327. These are two strong resistance and support zones and also the price range where investors can enter orders. With a perfect retracement it is possible to push the price to the old peak around 1.342 and the strongest retracement is supported at 1.284. Resistance: 1.327-1.342 Support: 1.300-1.284 🕯Trading Signals SELL GBPUSD zone 1.327-1.329 Stoploss 1.331 BUY GBPUSD zone 1.300-1.298 Stoploss 1.296
by TVS-Trader