Goldidea
XAUUSD Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Don’t chase long gold too muchGold rose strongly today, reaching its highest level near 2419. It has now fallen back and is trading near 2406. I have been emphasizing since yesterday to close all short positions in the 2380-2375 area and commit to long gold. After going long gold yesterday, we continued to go long gold near the 2382 position today and successfully hit TP: 2390. .Today continues to end in profit in trading.
At present, gold has risen strongly to near the 2419 position. The bullish sentiment in the market is high and the market following sentiment is prevalent. Therefore, I do not recommend shorting gold. After all, gold may continue to rise due to the market's pursuit; although the trend of gold is still very strong, but since today is Friday, I don’t recommend going long on gold directly at the moment, because gold immediately fell back after rising high many times, forming multiple upper shadow lines, and faced the resistance of the previous sub-high 2418-2420 area.
Therefore, it is not recommended to directly pursue long gold before gold falls back to prevent short-term gold decline caused by profit realization.So if your trading style is prudent, I suggest you wait and see first and don’t rush to participate in the transaction; if you have an aggressive trading style, for now, I don’t recommend chasing long gold directly.On the contrary, you can consider trying to short gold in the 2414-2416 area to gain short-term short profits first, and wait for gold to fall back before going long gold!
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GOLD-uptrend
U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in April, suggesting inflation resumed its downward trend at the start of the second quarter, boosting financial market expectations for a September interest rate cut. At the same time, under the influence of the market, the US dollar fell sharply, providing greater impetus to gold’s rise. Today, we will pay attention to the changes in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States and the performance of real estate market data. Pay attention to the monthly rate of U.S. industrial output in April and the speeches of Federal Reserve officials, and pay attention to news related to the geopolitical situation.
The current gold price is a very obvious strong rise. It has just risen sharply during the cycle and gradually broke through the upper high point. If there is no unexpected data and news on Thursday and Friday, the possibility of reversal is unlikely, so now it is rising. Trend, follow the trend, wait for the support point to buy and the probability of profit is higher.
You can see that 2378 is the turning point of strength and weakness. You can buy at 2378-2380 and set SL. If it falls below 2375, gold will change the pattern of strong rise and turn into a shock and slow rise.
The above strategies are for your reference, but the market changes quickly, and you need to change your strategies in real time according to the trend, so that your success rate will increase.
What if you don't know how to trade? Join me as I analyze and provide ideas every day
Gold is forecast to continue to decline deeplyGold prices steadied in Asian trading today after posting strong overnight gains as some mild inflation data dragged the dollar to a one-month low and raised expectations of a rate cut. capacity.
The yellow metal has now returned to record highs reached in May, as traders bet more that the US Federal Reserve (FED) will start cutting interest rates as soon as September. The dollar fell sharply on Wednesday on this view, which should benefit overall metal prices.
Gold prices are up more than 1% from Wednesday after data showed US consumer price index inflation fell in April from March, while core CPI also fell from the previous month.
The figures, followed by weaker-than-expected retail sales data, raised hopes that inflation will ease in the coming months, giving the Fed more confidence in starting to cut interest rates.
The CME Fedwatch tool shows traders are pricing in a higher likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in September, at nearly 54%.
High interest rates push up the opportunity cost of investing in gold and other precious metals because they do not bring direct profits. The yellow metal could also benefit from increased safe-haven demand if the US economy cools further this year.
Slight fluctuations after a series of increasing daysWorld gold prices turned down with spot gold dropping 9.5 USD to 2,375.5 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at $2,380.90 an ounce, down $14 from the bright spot.
According to Kitco Metals senior analyst Jim Wyckoff, gold turned around due to normal pressure after recent gains. On that side, the recovery of the US Dollar index also added strength to gold. The dollar rose 0.2% after hitting a multi-month low in the previous session as the latest data showed US consumer prices rose less than expected in April.
Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams said that the positive news surrounding the cooling off job is not enough for the US Central Bank to make an early decision to slow down.
Although gold turned down, most experts are still optimistic about gold in the future, predicting that this precious metal will soon conquer new records in the coming months.
MarketGauge's director of trading education and research Michele Schneider said that while it doesn't want to start a cycle of monetary policy easing just yet, it's clear the Fed also doesn't want to push interest rates higher and that conditions will eventually deliver. solid level of support for the precious type
Gold continues to trade around the all-time highs.XAUUSD - 24h expiry
Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs.
Buying continued from the 61.8% pullback level of 2372.7.
Previous resistance at 2370 now becomes support.
The primary trend remains bullish.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
20 4hour EMA is at 2366.4.
We look to Buy at 2370.2 (stop at 2356.2)
Our profit targets will be 2405.2 and 2411.2
Resistance: 2397.5 / 2417.9 / 2431.6
Support: 2380.0 / 2370.0 / 2355.0
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Gold prices retreated in accordance with market expectations💥 GOLD information
World gold prices decreased with spot gold down 27.2 USD to 2,335.7 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 2,342.2 USD/ounce, down 32.8 USD compared to yesterday morning.
Short-term futures traders rushed to book profits after recent gains put pressure on the yellow metal in early trading of the week. Meanwhile, the market is still waiting for further data to know more about the interest rate direction of the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
Currently, traders and investors are waiting for important US inflation data for April with the producer price index to be released on May 14 and the consumer price index on May 15. 5. PPI is forecast to increase 0.3% over the previous month, compared to a 0.2% increase in the March report. CPI is forecast to increase 0.4%, unchanged from the March report. CPI Annual growth in April is forecast to increase by 3.6% compared to a 3.8% increase in the March report.
Recently, Fed officials have said that the Fed will loosen monetary policy if there is evidence that inflation declines sustainably. Therefore, this data is very important and is expected to have a great impact on the future direction of gold.
💥 Technically
Gold retreated to around 2330 with support from EMA 89. Gold price rebounded from this area, showing that the main trend of the market is still uptrend. It can be said that gold is stuck within the trendline border in the h4 frame and is heading towards the lower trendline area. The support level of 2330 is still enough to push the gold price to 2360 or 2375 if it remains above the important technical area of 2330. If you break out of 2375, then Correctly determined according to the current market trend is that gold will touch the old peak of 2432 in June or September.
Gold back to 2400?Gold prices continued their uptrend on Thursday and rose more than 1% as US Treasury yields fell, reducing the greenback's appeal. Labor market data from the United States was weaker, increasing the chances of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve despite facing inflationary pressures.
XAU/USD's daily chart shows it has slowed its recovery around the slightly elevated 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), at around $2,345. Longer moving averages maintain their upward slope well below current levels, while technical indicators remain below midlines with no clear directional strength. Overall, Gold extends its consolidation phase ahead of a suitable directional catalyst.
Looking ahead and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is neutral. The pair met with intraday buyers around the bullish 200 SMA but failed to extend gains beyond the slightly bearish 100 SMA. Finally, technical indicators remained unchanged at positive levels, showing that bulls are more willing to jump in.
The resistance zone at 2375 is currently expected by investors to be able to reduce the increase throughout today. The price range of 2375 and 2352 will be the trading range in today's US session. If the recovery level is nice enough, gold's destination will return to around 2400 soon.
SELL zone 2375-2377 SL 2380
BUY zone 2353-2351 SL 2348
Gold continues to go up, entry buy todayCooling US inflation pushed gold prices up nearly 30 USD an ounce, and helped Wall Street set a new record.
Closing the trading session on May 15, each ounce of world gold for immediate delivery increased by 27 USD to 2,385 USD. During the session, gold price at one point touched 2,390 USD - the highest in nearly a month.
The market went up due to the weakening of the USD and falling US government bond yields, after the country announced that April inflation increased more slowly than forecast. This data has strengthened the possibility of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing interest rates.
The US consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.3% last month. In February and March, the increase was 0.4%. This shows that inflation has restored its downward trend, giving investors more confidence that the Fed will lower interest rates from September.
CPI "may be an early indicator showing that in the long term, inflation will cool down and the Fed will have the first decision to reduce interest rates," said Phillip Streible - market strategist at Blue Line Futures. CME FedWatch tracker shows that investors currently place a 74% chance of a Fed rate cut in September.
The index tracking USD prices with a basket of major currencies - Dollar Index yesterday decreased 0.6%, reaching its lowest level in more than a month. This makes gold more attractive to buyers outside the US. The 10-year US government bond yield also fell to a one-month low.
Still determining the upward price trend, today's trading strateWorld gold prices increased sharply with spot gold increasing by 27.4 USD to 2,385 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 2,391.8 USD/ounce, up 31.9 USD compared to yesterday morning.
Gold prices rose to their highest level in more than 3 weeks on May 15 (US time) thanks to support from the weakness of the greenback and falling yields after the latest inflation report. Published data showed that the US consumer price index in April increased less than expected, increasing the possibility of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The dollar fell 0.5% to its lowest level in more than a month, making gold more attractive to holders of other currencies. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields also hit a more than 1-month low.
The CPI data “could be an early sign that over time inflation will cool and the Fed will make its first rate cut,” Blue Line Futures chief market strategist Phillip Streible said.
The CPI rose 0.3% last month after rising 0.4% in March and February, suggesting inflation continued its downward trend at the beginning of the second quarter. This has pushed up financial market expectations of an interest rate cut in September. According to Reuters poll results, economists forecast CPI to increase 0.4% in the month and up 3.4% over the month. with the same period last year.
Technically, bullish gold futures have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Kitco Metals senior analyst Jim Wyckoff wrote in a note that bulls' next upside target is to produce a close for June futures above solid resistance. probably at 2,400 USD/ounce.
GOLD-Pay attention to the impact of CPI data
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he was less confident than before that inflation will come down. However, it emphasized that it does not believe that the next step may be to raise interest rates, and is more likely to maintain the policy interest rate at the current level. The U.S. economy is performing very well and has a very strong labor market. GDP is expected to continue growing at 2% or higher. The PPI data is actually quite mixed, with uncertainty as to whether inflation will persist. Today we are paying attention to the seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate data in the United States at the end of April. It is expected to have a greater impact on the market. Please pay attention to the risks.
Since gold's slow decline to bottom out at 2330 on Monday, it has turned from a weak shock to a strong shock. It can be seen from Tuesday's U.S. market that even if the data is not conducive to gold, it is difficult to suppress the slow rise of gold. The U.S. market has been gradually rising. performance, and fell back to a high of 2360 for the second time. It is determined that today is a strong performance. Therefore, the current view is that it is a strong rise for the time being.
From a technical point of view, the daily line closed above the Bollinger Band on Tuesday. Although it has not yet formed a unilateral rise, the current strong state may reach the daily Bollinger Band high of around 2378, including the 4H cycle. , during the continuous rise, the 4H K-line maintained strong continuous green candles, and the rising momentum was very strong. Let’s first look at the Bollinger upper track high near 2372 for Wednesday’s rise.
If the European market continues to rise, I think you can sell when it reaches the resistance point of 2375-2378 for the first time, or wait for the support point of 2342-2345 to buy, and set the SL
There is CPI data in the US market. It is expected that the market will fluctuate greatly and the risk will be relatively high. If you don’t want to bet on the data, you can wait for the data to be released and follow the trend to trade.
The above strategies are for your reference, but the market changes quickly, and you need to change your strategies in real time according to the trend, so that your success rate will increase.
What if you don't know how to trade? Join me as I analyze and provide ideas every day
XAUUSD Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
General trading strategy today, which areas should Sell and Buy?Gold prices in Asia increased in the afternoon trading session on May 14, as the market is awaiting important inflation reports expected to be released this week, for more clues about the speed and scale of interest cuts. interest rate of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year.
Spot gold price increased 0.2% to 2,338.78 USD/ounce, while gold futures price increased 0.1% to 2,344.70 USD/ounce.
The US producer price index (PPI) is expected to be announced at 6:30 p.m. Vietnam time, followed by the consumer price index (CPI) on May 15. According to a Reuters poll, CPI figures are forecast to show core inflation rising 0.3% in April from the previous month, down from 0.4% in March, pulling down the inflation rate. annual inflation down to 3.6%.
If gold can hold above the level of 2,320-2,330 USD/ounce, it is a positive sign, meaning gold is gaining momentum in the short term. And with the push from weaker CPI figures (if any), he thinks gold is likely to rise to all-time highs in the short term.
The weak jobs report and lower-than-expected US non-farm payrolls reported in April released last week have increased expectations about the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates this year. According to a majority of economists polled by Reuters news agency, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, starting in September.
Trading strategy after PPI news, gold increased sharply againWorld gold prices increased with spot gold increasing by 21.9 USD to 2,357.6 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 2,363.6 USD/ounce, up 21.1 USD compared to yesterday morning.
Weakness in the USD and Treasury yields following US producer price data for April provided a boost to the yellow metal. The dollar fell 0.2% after US data made gold cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note also fell, reducing the opportunity cost of holding this non-couponing asset.
The US producer price index (PPI) in April increased by 0.5% over the previous month, a stronger increase than the forecast of 0.3%. Core PPI (excluding volatile food and energy) also rose 0.5% in April versus forecasts of 0.2%. However, March PPI was revised down to -0.1% from a 0.2% increase in the initial report. Although the April PPI report supported those who expected the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to delay interest rate cuts, the sharp downward revision to the March PPI clearly tempered the increase slightly. larger than expected in April PPI.
Gold trading strategy today, identify uptrendWorld gold prices decreased with spot gold down 27.2 USD to 2,335.7 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 2,342.2 USD/ounce, down 32.8 USD compared to yesterday morning.
Short-term futures traders rushed to book profits after recent gains put pressure on the yellow metal in early trading of the week. Meanwhile, the market is still waiting for further data to know more about the interest rate direction of the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
Currently, traders and investors are waiting for important US inflation data for April with the producer price index to be released on May 14 and the consumer price index on May 15. 5. PPI is forecast to increase 0.3% over the previous month, compared to a 0.2% increase in the March report. CPI is forecast to increase 0.4%, unchanged from the March report. CPI Annual growth in April is forecast to increase by 3.6% compared to a 3.8% increase in the March report.
Recently, Fed officials have said that the Fed will loosen monetary policy if there is evidence that inflation declines sustainably. Therefore, this data is very important and is expected to have a great impact on the future direction of gold.
In a recent interview with Kitco News, global investment strategist Tim Hayes of Ned Davis Research expects gold prices to eventually surpass last month's record high above $2,448 an ounce, but the breakout could may not happen until the Fed actually cuts interest rates.
GOLD-analyze
The focus of the market this week will be the US PPI data released on Tuesday, followed by the CPI data on Wednesday. Consumer prices came in higher than expected in the first quarter, suggesting the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates less often this year. Then, job growth in April was weaker than expected, leading investors to rekindle bets on two rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, but that view depends largely on softening inflation and awaits more news from the market. . In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and European Central Bank Governing Council Member Knott jointly attended a meeting and delivered a speech on Tuesday, which also needs to be focused on.
Yesterday, gold started to fall from 2364, reaching the lowest level near 2332. With this trend, unless you sell from the beginning, it will be difficult to follow the trend. If you are not an aggressive trader, it will be difficult to trade yesterday. Therefore, during yesterday's decline, I No suitable opportunity found
After yesterday's decline, we can confirm that the high point of this cycle is 2378, which is difficult to break. However, if the Bollinger Band does not break, it may also fluctuate at a high level. Therefore, there is no absolute long-short trend.
Today’s key support point is 2330. If it cannot fall below 2330, I think it is likely to continue to rebound. The upper resistance is around 2350 and 2365.
Today you can try to buy near 2330-2335, SL: 2326, or wait for the first resistance point 2350 to sell, use small lot, or wait for 2365 to sell, and make reasonable arrangements according to your own funds
The above strategies are for your reference, but the market changes quickly, and you need to change your strategies in real time according to the trend, so that your success rate will increase.
What if you don't know how to trade? Join me as I analyze and provide ideas every day
Gold confirms uptrend, entry buy todayGold prices fell in today's Asian session, consolidating some recent gains as traders turned more biased towards the dollar ahead of key US inflation data later in the week.
The yellow metal saw some strength last week as some signs that the US economy was cooling sparked speculation of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (FED). capacity in 2024.
However, gold remains below record highs hit in April and is expected to trade in a tight range ahead of this week's inflation data.
The broader gold and metals market is ahead of key US inflation indicators this week.
Producer price index data for April will be available on Tuesday, while more closely watched consumer price index data will be available on Wednesday.
Any signs of inflation trouble are likely to further dampen expectations for a U.S. interest rate cut this year, boosting the dollar and pressuring metals prices.
The greenback stabilized after recent fluctuations. Data on Friday showed US consumer confidence weakened significantly in May, but inflation forecasts remained high next year.
Rising precious metals prices were also pressured by this week's inflation figures, as higher interest rates for longer increased the opportunity cost of investing in metals markets.
XAUUSD Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Will XAUUSD come back or continue to increase strongly?World gold prices last week mainly maintained a recovery trend. At the beginning of the trading week, precious metal prices were listed above 2,300 USD/ounce and spent most of the trading week in the range of 2,310-2,330 USD/ounce.
During the trading session on May 10, the world gold price at one point recovered to 2,375 USD/ounce. However, the upward momentum did not last long, causing the gold price to fall by 15 USD and end the weekend session at 2,360 USD/ounce.
Over the past week, precious metals increased by 2.5% thanks to US employment data supporting dovish views on monetary policy. In addition, military tensions are increasing in both the Middle East and Ukraine; At the same time, data also shows that gold demand from central banks and other needs are all on the rise.
Experts assess that gold is still receiving positive support in the coming time as more and more central banks appear willing to lower interest rates, thanks to the above factors.
Kitco News' latest weekly gold survey finds industry experts are bullish on the precious metal.