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EURUSD analysis week 27📌EUR/USD continued to slide to Friday's lows, falling to 1.0670 before recovering to 1.0700 during the US market session. Political pressure is weighing on the Euro after a major change in European voter sentiment. 📌On the US side, increasingly negative data is raising concerns about a possible recession, fueled by the results of the University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment survey. worse than expected. 📌The currency pair is trading far away from the EMA 34 and EMA 89, showing that there has been instability in the pair over the past week. The downtrend is clearly established as the key support zone of 1,073 was broken and created a bearish Dow pattern. The pair's narrow trading range was formed at 1,070 and 1,076. When the market fluctuates strongly due to news of important resistance and support areas next week, investors can pay attention to the port areas of 1,061 and 1,080. Trading signals BUY EURUSD zone 1.06200-1.06000 SL 1.065800 SELL EURUSD zone 1.08000-1.08200 SL 1.08400 Support: 1.062 - 1.070 Resistance: 1.076 - 1.080
by TVS-Trader
Gold analysis week 27The gold market maintained a steady recovery ahead of the weekend, but the overall trend remains unclear as US consumer confidence continues to decline and inflation expectations remain high. The new divergence between the Fed's interest rate forecast and market expectations could bring some volatility to the gold market in the short term. China is the main driving force behind the increase in gold prices over the past year, and China's gold purchases have only been assessed as temporary and there has not been any move to show that they have "stopped". could also be a move to avoid paying a record high purchase price. The market will get some preliminary and regional manufacturing data as well as some US housing data next week. Gold has recovered from the support level of 2,305 - 2,300 USD but in general the recovery momentum is still limited and the downtrend has not been broken yet. The recovery momentum of gold price is limited by the confluence area of ​​technical point 2,340 in the trendline area which is also the nearest peak, followed by resistance level 2355 where gold breaks the bullish structure, As long as gold remains below the 34 EMA and 89 EMA, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bearish, while if gold breaks below $2,324 it will have room for more downside with the following target level. That's around $2,305 - $2,300 in the short term. A new bearish cycle is expected to open once gold breaks below the original price of $2,300, and the target level is then 2286 and then 2270. Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300 - 2286 Resistance: 2,340 – 2,355
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
1
GOLD Finds Support at Key Fibonacci Level, Eyeing Further GainsGold gains traction and trades around $2,321 in the latter half of Thursday, buoyed by a drop in the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield, which fell more than 1% on the day to below 4.3% following disappointing US economic data. This decline in bond yields provides support for XAU/USD. The price action in gold demonstrated a strong rejection from a minor structural level, specifically at the 61.88% Fibonacci retracement level. This rejection was accompanied by a divergence on the H4 timeframe, indicating potential upward momentum as it moved into a demand area or support zone. Our analysis remains consistent with our previous outlook, maintaining a bullish bias and looking for a long setup. From a technical standpoint, this divergence on the H4 timeframe suggests a potential reversal, aligning with our strategy to capitalize on the expected upward movement. The demand area around the 61.88% Fibonacci retracement level has proven to be a significant support zone, reinforcing our confidence in a bullish setup. Moreover, the broader macroeconomic environment supports this bullish perspective on gold. The recent disappointing US economic data has dampened expectations for aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. As a result, lower yields tend to make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive to investors. This dynamic is likely to persist in the near term, providing a favorable backdrop for gold prices. Given these technical and fundamental factors, we are poised to take advantage of the anticipated upward movement in gold. Our strategy involves setting up long positions at current levels, targeting further gains as market conditions continue to evolve. This approach is reinforced by the technical signals observed on the H4 timeframe and the supportive macroeconomic backdrop. In summary, gold's current price action, supported by a decline in US Treasury yields and strong technical indicators, presents a compelling case for a bullish setup. As we monitor the market for further developments, our focus remains on capitalizing on this anticipated upward trajectory, maintaining our long positions and adjusting our strategy as needed based on evolving market conditions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
3
Interest rates are supported, Gold weakensGold increased for the second consecutive trading day, the gold price once reached 2,320 USD. The market will receive the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and US CPI data, which is expected to explode the market. US CPI Data and Federal Reserve Decision Coming Soon. US May CPI data will be released a few hours before the Fed decision. If inflation stays stable, that could allow the dollar to start to gain traction first. Fed shows policymakers expect policy rate cuts by a total of 75 basis points in 2024. An upward revision is possible as most policymakers say that they are in no rush to start reducing borrowing costs. Today is a very important trading day because it is directional from big data such as CPI and FOMC events, first gold and dollar will be affected by CPI data and then FOMC. If CPI data is better, this will boost the US Dollar but then if the FOMC shows the prospect of a rate cut then this will boost gold prices. Up to now, after the NF data was announced, the gold market has formed a short-term downtrend. and the recovery to form the DOW model is taking place quite perfectly in the h4 time frame. The recovery could reach the 34 EMA or higher the 89 EMA of the h4 frame with two notable resistance levels at 2325 and 2338. The Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in June after today's meeting so The dollar will be strongly supported at least in the next 2 months. The market's downtrend could take gold to 2387 or deeper than the 2376 support level. During trading periods with a lot of macro data and major events, sudden large price movements can completely disrupt any technical structure. At times when major events take place, technical analysis is no longer available, the market will depend on basic factors such as: Geopolitical developments, monetary policy, macro data. tissue,….
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
rebounded strongly after reaching a level lower than 2300Gold for delivery closed down more than 20 USD on Thursday, fell below the 2,300 USD/ounce mark, and recovered slightly in the European session on Friday to 2,314. Despite weak US PPI, gold prices still fell sharply as the Federal Reserve forecasted only one interest rate cut this year. In addition, a stronger US Dollar also affects gold prices. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept interest rates steady despite improving inflation and forecast only one rate cut in 2024, due to Economic growth and the unemployment rate remain above what the Fed considers long-term sustainable levels. High interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it less attractive compared to other assets in the market, especially the dollar. Markets are still assessing the Fed's future monetary policy path. The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday that it would leave interest rates unchanged and signaled that there would be only one rate cut in 2024. In March, the Fed had expected three rate cuts in this year. Before Thursday's PPI data was released, the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the US Department of Labor on Wednesday also showed that inflation had generally cooled, creating momentum for gold to surge. up 1% that day. However, after the Federal Reserve issued hawkish comments, spot gold prices reversed the basic trend. Technical analysis of gold price Gold has dropped significantly since reaching the key resistance area around $2,340 – $2,345 which is the confluence of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, the $2,345 horizontal resistance and the 21 EMA. Gold fell back to operating around the 2,305 - 2,300 USD area to maintain the main downtrend from the price channel. In the short term, the raw price level of $2,300 will be the closest support and if gold continues to break below this technical level it will open up the possibility of continuing towards the target at $2,286. Even if gold recovers, during the day it will still be limited by the $2,324 level, its technical direction will still lean to the downside. Support: 2305 - 2291 - 2286 - 2280- 2274 Resistance: 2316 - 2321 - 2325 - 2333 - 2338 SELL price range 2319 - 2321 stoploss 2325 BUY price range 2270 - 2268 stoploss 2264
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Attention price range before FOMCGold dropped from peak to 2,340 USD before Fed information After CPI rose to a three-day high past the $2,340/troy ounce mark, gold prices now appear to have digested that initial move and returned some gains amid a weaker dollar and Yields fell ahead of the FOMC event later in the session. The 2340 level is unlikely to hold before the FOMC. The 2352 resistance zone will be better for you if you want to SELL gold. Today it is predicted that the FOMC will continue to support the dollar, so the possibility of gold falling will be very high. Scalp support may be around the old bottom of 2390
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
GOLD Shows Modest Gains Anticipation of US Inflation Data-FOMCGold, after modest gains over the past two days, trades with a negative bias during the early European session on Wednesday. This slight downturn, however, lacks momentum as traders await crucial US economic data releases later in the day. Market Sentiment and Anticipated Economic Data Traders are keenly focused on the upcoming consumer inflation figures from the United States and the outcome of the highly-anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. These events are expected to provide new insights into the Federal Reserve’s plans regarding interest rate cuts, which will significantly influence the near-term trajectory of gold, a non-yielding asset. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, the H4 timeframe shows a divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), indicating potential bullish momentum. This divergence follows a rebound from a key demand or support area, suggesting that the recent downtick may be temporary. The technical indicators are aligning to potentially support a price increase, especially if the economic news aligns with expectations. Economic Indicators to Watch Consumer Inflation Figures: The latest US consumer inflation figures will be pivotal. Strong inflation data could imply sustained economic growth, potentially leading to a delay in interest rate cuts. Conversely, weaker inflation data might reinforce expectations for a more dovish Fed, supporting gold prices. FOMC Meeting Outcome: The FOMC meeting is another critical event. Any indications from the Federal Reserve regarding the timing and pace of interest rate cuts will be closely scrutinized. A dovish stance from the Fed could weaken the US Dollar and bolster gold prices. Potential Market Reaction The interplay between these economic indicators and the market's reaction will be crucial. Should the inflation figures and FOMC outlook hint at a delay in rate cuts, gold may experience pressure due to a stronger US Dollar. On the other hand, dovish signals from the Fed could lead to a rebound in gold prices, aligning with the technical indicators suggesting a bullish impulse. In conclusion, Gold is currently experiencing a modest downturn but remains poised for potential gains depending on the upcoming US economic data. The divergence on the RSI in the H4 timeframe supports a bullish outlook, contingent on the release of favorable economic news. Traders should be prepared for increased volatility and watch for key signals from the consumer inflation figures and the FOMC meeting to gauge the future direction of gold prices.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
1
The Japanese yen continues to weakenThe Japanese Yen remains weak as the BoJ is expected to maintain current policy in June The Japanese Yen fell slightly as the BoJ is expected to maintain current interest rates on Friday. Japan's stable stock market has weakened the JPY. The US dollar held firm as the likelihood of two Fed rate cuts in 2024 decreased. USD/JPY traded around 157.20 on Tuesday. Daily chart analysis shows an uptrend as the pair consolidates in an ascending channel pattern. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the 50 level, indicating a bullish trend. Significant hurdles can be seen at the psychological level of 158.00. A break above this level could provide support, potentially guiding the USD/JPY pair towards the vicinity of the upper boundary near the 158.60 level. The next level of resistance is seen at 160.32, which marks the highest level in over thirty years. On the other hand, the lower boundary of the ascending channel, roughly at 154.90, stands out as key support, coinciding with the 34-day Exponential Moving Average at 154.86. A breach below this level could intensify bearish pressure on the USD/JPY pair, potentially steering it towards the pullback support area around 152.80.
by TVS-Trader
1
Regain the mark of 2,300 USD/ounceGold prices regained the 2,300 USD/ounce mark because investors had a bottom-fishing mentality after prices plummeted last weekend. Experts say that gold prices are going against the general rules of the market when many forecasters receive bad news. The US consumer price index for May, which is about to be published, is likely to increase, making the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) delay in cutting interest rates even longer. Gold investors are turning their attention to the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for June 11-12 (US time), which will open up a more positive direction. for gold price. Here, the FOMC will provide insight into the plans and timeline for expected interest rate cuts this year and through 2026. Gold is having difficulty trying to regain the 2320 level. Yesterday in the US session, gold achieved a recovery level of 2313 according to investors' expectations after a weekend of catastrophic price decline. Unable to reach the expectation of 2320, gold is stuck around the 2300 price range. The upward recovery will likely continue until gold returns to the market's downward trajectory. SELL zone 2330-2332 SL 2335 SELL zone 2281-2279 SL 2276 Pay attention to support and resistance points to have the best trading strategy Support: 2286 - 2280 - 2270 Resistance: 2315 - 2329 - 2338
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
1
USDJPY sideway waits NONFARM to break narrow marginThe Japanese yen was flat on Friday after the Japanese finance ministry announced Japan's foreign exchange reserves. Japan's Ministry of Finance announced that he will take action on excessive JPY exchange rate volatility when necessary and will evaluate the effectiveness of the intervention. He emphasized the importance of maintaining market confidence in the JPY while also mentioning that there is no limit to the resources for the foreign exchange intervention fund. The dollar is struggling after weak US employment data raises hopes that the FED will lower interest rates twice in 2024. Economists predict a rate cut in September in addition to the possibility of another cut. The possibility of the FED lowering interest rates in September. In the h4 time frame, there have been signs of a bearish reversal in the USDJPY pair. The 34 EMA has crossed down to the 89 EMA and the recently created highs are getting lower. Overall, the pair is still stuck in a narrowing price band and is waiting for Nonfarm today to break out of the band. Pay attention to important support and resistance zones: Support: 156,400-153,600 Resistance: 154,500-157,700
by TVS-Trader
1
Today's trading trends, selling strategiesThe employment and economic data released by the US last week showed both positive and negative trends. However, the fairly positive job market has caused the market to predict that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut interest rates before November this year, instead of September as previously forecast. Experts say that world gold prices in the next few days will adjust within a narrow range to wait for information from the Fed meeting taking place on June 11-12. Surely the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this meeting. However, the market will look for information about the health of the US economy and the direction of inflation. Some financial institutions believe that the Fed cutting interest rates may consider the deflation situation of the world's No. 1 economy, when it twice reported the country's gross domestic product growth in the first quarter. a sharp decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. Experts recommend that investors should patiently wait for information from the Fed meeting. Because gold prices will be strongly affected when the Fed releases positive information from the US economy.
TVC:GOLDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
Gold fell deeply at the end of the week, the downtrend continuedWorld gold prices tend to recover with spot gold increasing by 2.3 USD compared to last week's closing level to 2,294.9 USD/ounce. The gold market this week is forecast to have many fluctuations and the direction of this precious metal depends heavily on the consumer price index (CPI) report and the interest rate decision of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). ) and a speech from the head of the world's most powerful central bank. Last week, the market witnessed a strong sell-off when receiving two unfavorable information. Gold lost up to 80 USD during the day, recording the strongest intraday decline in 4 years. Specifically, the price reversed when the latest report showed that the People's Bank of China did not add gold last month, cutting off this central bank's 18-month gold buying streak. The report raises concerns that gold demand will slow down in the near future. While the market is gradually stabilizing, expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates in September are gradually fading after the US Department of Labor's employment report dealt another strong blow to the market. The Fed started the fight against inflation from March 2022 with interest rate increases. In this way, the US Central Bank wants to slow down economic growth and reduce inflationary pressure, with the goal of bringing inflation down to 2%. Recent inflation reports show that inflation is currently at 2.7%.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
GOLD FORCASTThe current analysis indicates a bearish trend for XAUUSD. A retest of 2355 is expected. If it fails to hold above this level, the price is projected to decline first to 2328 and, if it stabilizes below 2328, continue to 2306. Alternatively, if it stabilizes above 2355, a bullish trend towards 2397 is anticipated. Additionally, the market is expected to be very volatile due to upcoming NFP and Unemployment news. Key Levels: Bullish Lines: 2355, 2397, 2412 Bearish Lines: 2328, 2306, 2281
OANDA:XAUUSD
by RojBarwari
GOLD: Bullish Setup Anticipated Amid USD Weak and Low Treasury YGOLD: Bullish Setup Anticipated Amid USD Weak and Low Treasury Yields On Tuesday, gold dropped to the $2,315 area, nearing the multi-week low touched the previous day, influenced by a modest strengthening of the US Dollar (USD). Despite the USD's attempted recovery from its over two-month low, there was no significant follow-through, due to increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates later this year, bolstered by softer US macroeconomic data. These expectations have kept US Treasury bond yields depressed, which in turn has benefited the non-yielding yellow metal during the European session on Wednesday. Technical Analysis Overview For today's session, we are looking for a long setup for gold, particularly in light of the upcoming ISM Services PMI release in the US. From a technical perspective, several confluence factors support a bullish outlook: 1. Rebound from the 50% Fibonacci Level: The price has rebounded from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, a significant support area indicating potential for upward movement. 2. Divergence on the H4 Chart: A divergence on the H4 chart suggests that selling pressure is weakening, further supporting the case for a bullish setup. These technical indicators align to suggest that gold is positioned for a potential upward move. Key Factors Influencing Gold 1. USD Strength and Fed Rate Cut Expectations: While the USD showed modest strength, it lacked sustained momentum due to growing expectations that the Fed will start cutting interest rates later this year. Softer US macro data has reinforced this outlook. 2. US Treasury Yields: Depressed US Treasury yields, influenced by expectations of Fed rate cuts, are benefiting gold. Lower yields decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it more attractive. Market Strategy Given the current technical setup and fundamental backdrop, our strategy involves looking for a long position in gold. The rebound from the 50% Fibonacci level and the observed divergence on the H4 chart support this approach. Additionally, the anticipation of the ISM Services PMI release adds a potential catalyst for movement. Conclusion Gold has experienced some downward pressure but remains supported by underlying factors such as low US Treasury yields and expectations of future Fed rate cuts. The technical indicators, including the rebound from the 50% Fibonacci level and the divergence on the H4 chart, suggest a bullish setup is likely. As a result, the current market environment presents an opportunity to look for long positions in gold, particularly in anticipation of supportive economic data releases.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
1
GBPUSD analysis week 24📌GBP/USD eases from 1.2765, keeping gains modest. GBP/USD hit a two-day peat at 1.2765 during the US session, as US data showed core PCE inflation held steady at 2.8% yoy in the month Private. The pair retreated later as risk aversion triggered demand for the US Dollar. 📌The possibility of the FED cutting interest rates in September is quite low. As the Fed has said they want to see inflation fall for months before considering a move to normalize policy, higher-than-expected inflation would significantly impact markets. FED interest rate cut will be delayed until November. If this index is lower, it will boost the prospect of FED lowering interest rates in September 📌The pair is trading within the border of the uptrend line and is strongly boosted by the EMA 34 and EMA 89 to extend the upward price momentum. The narrow price range of 1,280 and 1,268 that has been maintained continuously for the past two weeks could completely be broken in the next week with further resistance and support levels at 1,288 above and vice versa at 1,265 below. 🕯Trading signals SELL zone 1.28800-1.29000 SL 1.29300 BUY zone 1.26500-1.26300 SL 1.26000
by TVS-Trader