3.13 Gold surges higher againGold technical analysis
It has fluctuated continuously for two weeks in the 2890 to 2930 area. It broke through the Asian session yesterday. Then the second crazy game of the previous high formed a double top prototype structure. The global risk aversion gradually receded. The only rise was the economic recession of the United States. In fact, you think too much about global buying orders. Regardless of the recent territorial expansion speech or various taxes, or even selling cards, the purpose is to make the US dollar strong again, and hope to continue global hegemony. Therefore, it is uncertain that all kinds of speeches in the middle of the night stimulate risk aversion. Gold is constantly falling and giving you a V back every day, which is to constantly cultivate your inertia. Falling is an opportunity, and buying in batches is profit. So today is very simple. If the weakness is below 2956, it is at most 2942 to 2947, which is a direct decline, not giving you a second chance to rush high, or quickly reaching a new high, making you feel that gold is bullish again, the world is chasing more, or low-level shorts are forced to chase more hedges, then the market will change quickly.
The short-term operation ideas are as follows:
Pressure: 2955------2975 Support: 2880-----2830
Traders, if you like this idea or you have your own opinion on it, please write it in the comments. I will be happy
Goldintraday
3.13CPI is bullish, gold cautiously rises and falls in short terThe CPI data released in the evening was lower than expected, which is bullish for gold in the short term and continues to fluctuate during the day.
In the short-term 1-hour chart, according to 4, the price has risen above the directionless 20-period SMA and 100-period SMA, while the 200-period SMA is rising below the above short-term moving averages. At the same time, technical indicators have lost directional strength and turned slightly lower within the neutral level, predicting that gold prices may fall soon.
Short-term trading: short near 2935, stop loss 2945, take profit 2920/2915
XAU/USD 12 March 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis/Bias remains the same as analysis dated 07 March 2024.
Price has printed a bullish CHoCH according to analysis and bias dated 28 February 2025.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is now trading in premium of 50% internal EQ where we could see a reaction at any point. Price could also target H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 2,832.720
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 03 March 2023.
As mentioned in my analysis dated 28 February 2025, whereby price printed a bullish CHoCH but stated I would continue to monitor price.
On this occasion I have marked the previous bullish CHoCH in red as price did not pull back deeply enough to warrant internal structure breaks, additionally, there was minimal time spent .
Price has printed a further bullish CHoCH which is now confirmed. Price is not trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bullish, react at either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 2,832.720.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
3.12 Gold shocks, waiting for CPIGold prices surged nearly 1% on Tuesday (March 11) as the dollar weakened and tariff wars triggered concerns about economic slowdown.
Gold continued to fluctuate in one hour, and gold continued to be shorted at high levels. Gold was under pressure near 2922 several times yesterday and began to fall. Gold was still under pressure at 2922 in the early trading and continued to be shorted at high levels. Gold can be shorted near 2920, but you have to pay attention today. If gold continues to resist falling, then gold may be accumulating momentum and may use data to attack. So if gold still does not fall quickly in the European session, then leave the market first and wait for data guidance.
3.12 Technical analysis of gold short-term operationGold Short-Term Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, the daily chart of gold shows that the price of gold remains below the currently flat 20-day simple moving average (SMA), which provides dynamic resistance near $2,910.00/oz. The longer-term moving averages continue to move upwards at levels well below the current gold price, suggesting that bulls remain in control in the long term. Meanwhile, technical indicators have turned down near their mid-lines, suggesting that gold prices may extend their corrective decline before finding new buying interest.
In the near term, the price of gold is at risk of continuing its decline as seen on the 4-hour chart. The 20-period SMA and the 100-period SMA provide resistance in the $2,910/oz area, while the bullish 200-period SMA hovers around $2,867/oz, providing support. Finally, technical indicators remain in negative territory, albeit with mixed strength. However, a break below the intraday low of $2,881.80/oz on March 4 could see the price of gold fall further.
Important support and resistance levels:
Support level: $2881.80/oz; $2867.10/oz; $2854.95/oz
Resistance level: $2910.00/oz; $2927.90/oz; $2941.40/oz
XAU/USD 11 March 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis/Bias remains the same as analysis dated 07 March 2024.
Price has printed a bullish CHoCH according to analysis and bias dated 28 February 2025.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price is now trading in premium of 50% internal EQ where we could see a reaction at any point. Price could also target H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 2,832.720
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 03 March 2023.
As mentioned in my analysis dated 28 February 2025, whereby price printed a bullish CHoCH but stated I would continue to monitor price.
On this occasion I have marked the previous bullish CHoCH in red as price did not pull back deeply enough to warrant internal structure breaks, additionally, there was minimal time spent .
Price has printed a further bullish CHoCH which is now confirmed. Price is not trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bullish, react at either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 2,832.720.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
M15 Chart:
3.11 Gold’s short-term signal resistance levels are mixedSpot gold rebounded slightly in the Asian session on Tuesday (March 11) and is currently trading around $2,896.52 per ounce.
The technical signals of spot gold are a bit mixed. It has successfully stabilized near the support level of $2,879 per ounce and started to rebound. The focus on the resistance near 2,915 is on the top.
Between March 4 and March 7, a temporary top was formed in the range of $2,894 to $2,927. This indicates that the target is $2,861. However, after a brief confirmation, the top became invalid as the price of gold climbed above the neckline of the pattern at $2,894.
The rebound increases the possibility of resuming the upward trend from $2,832. A breakthrough of $2,909 will be seen as a strong signal to resume the upward trend.
Before the price of gold climbs above $2,915, the price of gold may still be biased to the downside, as the current rebound may just be a correction to the top, and the correction is a bit excessive.
On the daily chart, gold is also neutral in the range of $2891 to $2934, similar to the situation on the hourly chart.
When gold moves out of the range, the signal will become clearer. The wave pattern suggests that the market may experience a small decline first, followed by a strong rebound.
3.11 Analysis of gold short-term operation suggestionsOn Monday (March 10), the latest spot gold (XAU/USD) was quoted at $2915.01, up 0.10% on the day. In the Asian session, the gold price remained in a narrow range around $2914, but since 15:25 Beijing time, gold has fluctuated downward from $2915.39, reaching a low of $2896.73.
Fundamental analysis: The Fed's interest rate meeting is approaching, and the market is cautiously watching
At present, the gold market has entered a sideways consolidation phase, and investors are evaluating multiple factors, including the Fed's upcoming policy meeting on March 19 and the latest economic statements of US President Trump. In an interview with the media, Trump said that the US economy is in a "transition" stage, and the market has generally believed that the US economy is at risk of recession.
Market sentiment and capital flows: Short-term funds are cautious, and gold is still supported
Technical analysis: Long and short divergences are increasing, key support and resistance levels
From a technical perspective, the gold price is currently consolidating around $2890. The key resistance above is the intraday high of $2918.19, followed by the intraday R1 resistance of $2927 and the R2 resistance of $2945. If the gold price breaks through $2945, the market may challenge the historical high of $2956 set on February 24.
In terms of support below, the $2900 integer mark and the S1 support level of $2893 constitute double support. If it falls below this area, the gold price may test the S2 support level of $2878. Technical analysts believe that if Trump does not release additional tariff policy signals in the near future, market sentiment may gradually stabilize, and gold may pull back to the support range in the short term to accumulate power for subsequent gains.
Conclusion: Short-term consolidation, pay attention to the dynamics of the Federal Reserve
Overall, gold is currently maintaining a range of fluctuations, and the short-term trend is subject to the expectations of the Federal Reserve meeting and the uncertainty of the US economic outlook. Investors need to focus on the interest rate meeting on March 19 and the impact of the remarks of Federal Reserve officials on market sentiment in the coming weeks. In the current context, the market still tends to look for buying opportunities in pullbacks. If the gold price remains above $2,893, the bulls will still have a certain advantage.
3.11When will gold break out of its range?Will gold continue to adjust downward after the wash, or will it break upward after this period of consolidation?
1: Trump announced on the 7th that Russia launched a fierce attack on Ukraine. In order to encourage the two sides to sit down at the negotiating table for friendly negotiations, sanctions and tariffs will be imposed on Russia, including banks, until both sides are willing to stop the exchange of fire. This has increased the uncertainty of geopolitical risks, which will be a boost for gold.
2: Fed Chairman Powell reiterated at a press conference on Friday that the current US economic performance is relatively ideal, and the Fed does not intend to rush to cut interest rates next. As we all know, interest rate cuts will stimulate gold to rise, and slowing down the pace of interest rate cuts will form resistance for gold.
Since gold entered the adjustment on February 11, the repeated high-level roller coaster shock wash has been brewing for a month, and it is time to end. The gold price has repeatedly fluctuated around $2,900, and even the non-agricultural data failed to break the support of $2,890 and the pressure of $2,930.
As for gold, the focus is still on $2890 as the support point. As long as it is not lost here, it is still mainly based on reaching the bottom of the box. For players of physical gold, it is not recommended to repeatedly get on and off the gold when the funds are idle. It seems smart but will eventually miss it perfectly.
Trading strategy:
You can consider getting on the train within the range of 2900-2895, and defend below 2880 US dollars. The focus above is on the breakthrough of the 2920-30 pressure area.
Gold maintains box oscillation structureSpot gold fluctuated in a narrow range in early Asian trading on Monday, currently trading around $2,911 per ounce. Gold prices had fluctuated at high levels for three consecutive trading days, but still rose 1.85% on a weekly basis, helped by safe-haven inflows and a U.S. jobs report showing lower-than-expected job growth in February, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates this year. In addition, the volatile tariff policy of U.S. President Trump has also increased market uncertainty.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said earlier on Friday that the Fed will be cautious about easing monetary policy, adding that the economy is "still in good shape" at the moment.
The easing of geopolitical tensions also limited the rise in gold prices, with some progress in a possible ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia. In the Middle East, U.S. President Trump continued to pressure Hamas to release hostages. Meanwhile, according to the World Gold Council, the People's Bank of China continued to buy gold. The People's Bank of China increased its holdings by 10 tons of gold in the first two months of 2025. However, the largest buyer was the Polish central bank, which added 29 tons of gold reserves, the largest purchase since it bought 95 tons of gold in June 2019.
Overall, the rise in gold prices last week once again highlighted its importance as a safe-haven asset. Although the market may face consolidation in the short term, geopolitical risks, inflation concerns and uncertainty about the Fed's policy will continue to support gold demand. The focus of the market is on the upcoming Fed meeting. In addition, inflation reports and retail sales data will also provide more clues to the market.
Gold maintains a wide range of shocks. The weekly line continues to maintain an upward trend structure, and the running price retreats above the MA7 daily moving average and closes higher. The daily chart continues to be cross-shaped. Gold rose sharply above the 2930 mark in the late trading and then formed a high-rise fall. It continues to maintain a wide range of shocks at a high level, and the long and short market will not continue to consolidate.
At present, the MA10/7 daily moving average of the daily chart is at 2902, and the Bollinger Bands are gradually shrinking, with the upper rail at 2956 and the lower rail at 2867. The gold price in the Asian session is at the Bollinger Band middle rail price at 2912. The short-term four-hour chart also shows that the Bollinger Bands continue to close the upper rail at 2927 and the lower rail at 2900. The RSI indicator is in the middle axis 50 value consolidation, and the K-line pattern is alternating between long and short cycles.
The Asian session gold price continues the rebound trend of the NFP market. There are only two operating points in the Asian session. One is to wait for the gold price to continue to rise and reach the pressure of the 2930 range to sell, and the other is to wait for the gold price to adjust and reach the 2900 range to buy. However, the rebound is expected to reach the pressure of the upper 2930 line first, so the opportunity for us to go short is greater than that for going long. At present, the gold price is at the middle level of the range and needs to continue to wait!
Key points:
First support: 2903, second support: 2892, third support: 2882
First resistance: 2920, second resistance: 2928, third resistance: 2940
Operation ideas:
Buy: 2903-2905, SL: 2894, TP: 2920-2930;
Sell: 2929-2931, SL: 2940, TP: 2910-2900;
3.10 Gold short-term operation analysis and suggestionsIn early Asian trading on Monday (March 10), spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading around $2,912.60 per ounce. Gold prices have fluctuated at high levels for three consecutive trading days, but they still rose 1.65% on a weekly basis, helped by safe-haven inflows and the U.S. employment report showing that job growth in February was lower than expected, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates this year. In addition, the volatile tariff policy of U.S. President Trump has also increased uncertainty.
Gold continues to fluctuate in a range, and the overall trend is in an upward trend. After the adjustment, the price of gold will continue to rise. The idea is to continue to step back on low-multiple operations. Pay attention to the 2898 support during the day. Relying on this position, short-term long, stop loss 2889, stop profit at 2922/2932. Breaking the 2932 suppression is expected to further rush to a new high.
In addition, if it falls below the support near 2889, coupled with the recent strength of the U.S. dollar, gold may fall further, so if it falls below the support, don't consider continuing to go long, pay attention to the risk.
March 10th gold short-term trading: long near 2898, stop loss 2889, take profit 2922/2932
Backup ideas: (fall below 2889, rebound to 2896 and continue to short, stop loss 2904, take profit 2880-2876)
3.7 Gold short-term non-agricultural comingFundamental analysis
Tariff policy shows signs of easing, but risks have not been completely eliminated
Recently, the United States has postponed the implementation of the auto import tariff plan for Canada and Mexico, which has eased the economic and trade tensions in North America to a certain extent. However, this postponement is not indefinite. More importantly, import tariffs in other countries and regions are still in the process of being prepared or implemented, and potential uncertainties may still erupt again at any time. Driven by a series of previous tariff policy news, gold prices have repeatedly received safe-haven support. Although there is a slight correction at present, it is still near the historical relative high.
Technical analyst interpretation:
Currently, gold is fluctuating around $2,900/ounce. Overall, bullish confidence remains solid, but it also faces a large technical barrier in the short term. The following are several key observation points:
Key levels and support and resistance
Intraday key level: $2,914/ounce
If this position can be effectively broken through, it may attract more bulls to enter the market and pave the way for further impact of $2,934/ounce (R1).
R1 resistance during the day: $2934/oz
If the gold price breaks through this level, the next target will be $2950/oz (R2), and approach the historical high of $2956/oz on February 24. Once it approaches this high again, the market may experience a new round of violent fluctuations.
S1 support below: $2899/oz, coinciding with the $2900/oz mark
This area is a short-term long-short watershed. Once the shorts successfully suppress the price below $2900/oz, the bullish sentiment is vulnerable, and the risk of a short-term correction will also increase significantly. If it effectively falls below $2899/oz, the gold price may continue to fall to $2879/oz (S2), which is another possible long defensive position.
High consolidation and correction risk
From the overall market situation, the gold price has been strong since the end of last year, constantly refreshing the interim highs. However, as the market digests the Fed's expectations of rate cuts, bullish sentiment may be blunted at the current position. In addition, if the ECB or the United States' policy expectations change again, causing funds to reassess the prospects of global economic recovery and monetary policy, gold may also face certain pressure to fall from highs.
Pay attention to the operation of gold prices in the range of $2,900-2,934/ounce: If the bulls continue to fail to break upward, it is advisable to be alert to the potential correction caused by high-level profit-taking; and once the positive news is released, the possibility of gold prices quickly breaking through $2,934/ounce and heading straight to the $2,950-2,956/ounce area cannot be ignored.
3.6 Technical Analysis of Short-term Gold OperationsThe US ADP employment data for February fell sharply. The market expected 140,000, but only 70,000 were released last night, which was cut in half. This data is not surprising. Since Musk established the efficiency department at the oval table on January 20, a large number of government employees have been reduced, and the reduction in employment is reasonable.
However, the consensus is that the number of employed people will decrease, which is good for gold, and washing the market has become a routine operation. After the data was released, gold not only did not rise, but fell rapidly, all the way to $2,894, and it seemed that it was about to fall by a waterfall. At that time, I said internally that we should be careful of the double kill of longs and shorts, but it was pulled back to above $2,920 in the late trading.
In 1 hour, the US market quickly returned to the top and bottom conversion of $2,894 last night. After this retracement, it was pulled up again, indicating that the market bulls are still dominant, but the current market is still dominated by fluctuations, not a unilateral rise, so try to avoid chasing more and wait for the decline before intervening.
Today, the dividing point is still 2895-2900. We will continue to go long after the pullback. The upper target is 2920-2935 US dollars. The US dollar has begun to weaken. Gold is just in the process of brewing. The single negative on the weekly line does not form a stage top.
XAUUSD: 5/3 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
Daily chart resistance 2930, support below 2892
Four-hour chart resistance 2930, support below 2884
One-hour chart resistance 2930, support below 2912
Gold news analysis: Spot gold fluctuated narrowly at high levels on Wednesday and is currently trading around $2917/oz. Against the backdrop of escalating trade conflicts after US President Trump imposed new tariffs, the US dollar weakened to a near three-month low, and increased safe-haven demand pushed gold prices up sharply on Tuesday, reaching an intraday high of $2927.9/oz, which has risen for two consecutive trading days. Against the backdrop of escalating trade conflicts after US President Trump imposed new tariffs, the US dollar weakened and safe-haven demand increased, pushing gold prices up. Given the potential economic instability and weak job market, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates ahead of schedule. Following three rate cuts last year, the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates stable. The market expects the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts in June and may cut further in September. Investors need to pay close attention to changes in the international trade situation. The latest news shows that the United States may ease the tariff issue, which may weaken the safe-haven buying of gold and provide short-term opportunities for gold bears. This week's focus turns to Wednesday's ADP employment report and Friday's US NFP employment report to find clues to the Fed's interest rate trajectory.
Gold operation suggestions: Yesterday, gold fell slightly in the Asian session and stabilized at the 2880 mark, ushering in a strong rise after bottoming out. The European session accelerated to break through and stood above the 2900 mark to continue its strong upward trend. The US session accelerated to break through the 2927 line and fell under pressure and fell into a shock consolidation. The daily chart closed with two consecutive gains.
From the current trend of gold, today's lower support focuses on the one-hour level and the daily level are 2912-2892, respectively. The upper pressure focuses on the vicinity of 2930. Continue to rely on this range to sell high and buy low during the day. If it breaks through 2930, it is expected to approach the historical high. Wait patiently for key points to enter the market.
BUY:2892 near. SL:2887
BUY:2900 near. SL:2895
BUY:2912 near. SL:2908
SELL:2930 near. SL:2935
Trade with small size!
3.5 Technical Analysis of Short-term Gold OperationsThe non-farm payrolls (NFP) and consumer price index (CPI) data to be released this week will be the focus of market attention. If the data is strong, especially the inflation data is higher than expected, the market may reduce the bet on the Fed to cut interest rates. The market currently expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 75 basis points this year, an increase from the 44 basis points expected last week.
Gold Technical Analysis - Daily Chart
From the daily chart, gold received support near $2,832 last Friday and rebounded to $2,900 driven by tariff concerns. However, from this time frame, market information is limited, so it is necessary to further zoom in on the analysis period to get more details.
3.5 Technical analysis of gold short-term operation Key point 25Looking back at the overall market, gold has rebounded for two consecutive days, but from the perspective of the morphological structure, it is not yet in a state of reversal. Beware of the risk of a fall after a surge.
From the perspective of the one-hour and four-hour structures, the overall trend is still in a downward trend. Although there has been a strong rebound in the past two days, the rebound is not a reversal.
Today, we need to focus on $2925, which is 680 yuan, as the dividing line between today's long and short turns. Below this area, given the rebound in the past two days, I think we can try to go south to see a fall. Refer to the 2895 or 2880 area below.
However, if the box continues to oscillate today and closes above $680 or $2925, it will bottom out and turn to long! At that time, we will adjust our thinking and look north to see new highs!
Note that the short-term market is approaching a turning point, and 2925 needs to be paid attention to.
3.5 Technical analysis of short-term gold operationsOn the first trading day of March, the US dollar index fell sharply. Data released by ISM showed that the US ISM manufacturing index in February was 50.3, lower than the expected 50.8, and the previous value in January was 50.9. 50 is the dividing line between prosperity and recession. Although the ISM manufacturing PMI continued to expand in January, the amplitude was small and tended to stagnate. Both new orders and employment shrank. At the same time, the material purchasing price index soared to the highest level since June 2022. After the data was released, the US dollar index fell further.
Gold rebounded sharply, challenging the 10-day moving average. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages still showed a dead cross. The daily RSI rebounded and reached the key pressure zone of 2900-10 in 4 hours. The short-term trend turned to bullish, but it was still not a strong bull market. You can wait for the opportunity to stabilize and go long near 2875.
3.4 Short-term operation of gold within the dayIn February, gold closed with a long upper shadow line, the MACD indicator golden cross high volume, and the dynamic indicator SRO hooked up into the overbought area, indicating that the monthly line is still bullish. At the current monthly level, we focus on the support of the MA5 moving average and the strong support of the MA10 moving average, which correspond to 2763 and 2647 respectively.
The weekly line fell last week, including the previous day's positive column to form a negative cover, so the gold price will continue to weaken this week. The 2936-42 above the weekly line is a short-term top suppression, and the low point of last week is 2832. If it falls this week, it will definitely break the low point of last week. The current support below is the MA10 moving average near 2802, and the middle track support is 2732.
The daily line is more interesting: after the bottoming out and rebounding last Friday, the big positive pulled up yesterday; if the price continues to rebound and repair, then today's low will not exceed yesterday's low of 2857-58, and the current moving average MA60 supports near 2861. The upper pressure is at the middle track 2902-2910. The daily indicator macd is dead cross at high level and runs with large volume, and the smart indicator sto is repaired upward, which represents the daily level of shock.
The current macd is running at a low golden cross with large volume in 4 hours, and the smart indicator sto is entering the overbought area upward, which means that the current 4-hour shock is strong. At present, the upper pressure of the 4-hour is also at the intersection of the moving average MA60 and the upper track at 2913-14.
The current macd at high golden cross of the hourly line shrinks and sticks, and the smart indicator sto is repaired downward, which means that the hourly line is currently oscillating and tends to fall back. The current support is 2879, followed by 2870-58.
In summary:
During the day, we will mainly focus on yesterday's low point of 2857-58. If it is not broken, we can go long near 2867-68. In the short term, we can go long in the 2883-80 range in the Asian session, and the target is 2900-2910. The first short position is also in the 2909-20 range.
Strategy:
Go long in the 2880-83 range in the Asian session, defend 2875, and target 2890-2900-2910
Go long near 2866-68 during the day, defend 2858, and the target remains unchanged
Go short near 2909-12 during the day, defend 2918, and target 2900-2892
3.4 Gold’s Dayang Extended ReboundYesterday, the gold market opened high at 2860.6 in the morning, then the market rose to 2876.9 and then fell back. After filling the gap to 2858.3, the market was supported and rose strongly. The daily line reached 2895.3 and then the market was consolidated. The daily line finally closed at 2893.3 and the market closed with a big positive line with a slight shadow. After this pattern ended, the daily line broke the short-term pressure and there is still a rebound demand today.
Short-term operation:
Buy: 75 Stop loss: 65 Target: 95 05 15
Updated XAU/USD (Gold) Multi-Timeframe Analysis – March 4, 2025Analyzing M15, M30, H1, H4, and D1 charts for a precise trade execution strategy.
1. Market Structure Overview (Multi-Timeframe)
M15 (15-Minute Chart)
CHoCH (Change of Character) indicates bullish momentum.
Currently testing equilibrium (~$2,888 - $2,890).
Weak high at PDH (Previous Day’s High) around $2,893, which may act as resistance.
M30 (30-Minute Chart)
Break of structure (BOS) confirms bullish short-term trend.
Price is hovering near PDH ($2,893).
If it fails to break above $2,895, a short-term rejection is possible.
H1 (1-Hour Chart)
Bullish CHoCH confirms the short-term uptrend.
PDH ($2,893) remains a crucial level.
If broken, a rally toward $2,910 - $2,920 is likely.
H4 (4-Hour Chart)
Testing supply zone at PDH ($2,893).
Potential retracement to $2,865 - $2,870 before continuation higher**.
D1 (Daily Chart)
Price bounced from a key demand zone around $2,850.
Still bearish on the higher timeframe unless price reclaims $2,920 - $2,950.
If $2,900 - $2,920 rejects, more downside is expected.
2. Expected Scenarios & Probability
Scenario 1: Short-Term Bearish Rejection (60% Probability)
If price fails to break $2,895 - $2,900, expect a rejection down to $2,870 - $2,865.
Confirmation: Bearish rejection candle at PDH ($2,893).
Scenario 2: Bullish Breakout (40% Probability)
If price closes above $2,895, expect a move toward $2,910 - $2,920.
Confirmation: Strong breakout and candle close above $2,895.
3. Trading Plan
Sell Setup: (Primary Trade - 60% Probability)
Entry: $2,893 - $2,895.
SL: $2,905 (Above resistance).
TP1: $2,880 (First liquidity level).
TP2: $2,870 (Discount zone).
TP3: $2,865 (Major demand zone).
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:3.
Buy Setup: (Countertrend - 40% Probability)
Entry: $2,895 - $2,900.
SL: $2,885 (Below weak low).
TP1: $2,910 (Short-term liquidity).
TP2: $2,920 (Key supply zone).
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:3.
4. Final Trade Execution Summary:
Trade Type Entry Stop-Loss Take-Profit 1 Take-Profit 2 Take-Profit 3 R:R
Sell Setup $2,893 - $2,895 $2,905 $2,880 $2,870 $2,865 1:3
Buy Setup $2,895 - $2,900 $2,885 $2,910 $2,920 - 1:3
📌 Additional Execution Tips:
Watch for a rejection at $2,893 - $2,895 before shorting.
If price closes above $2,895, shift to buy mode.
Use M5/M15 for precise entries and candle confirmations.
Avoid entering during high-impact news releases.
Risk per trade: 1-2% of capital for optimal risk management.
3.4 Short-term technical analysis of goldLatest technical analysis of gold
Despite the rebound in gold prices in the Asian session on Monday, the technical side of gold prices deserves caution before making new bullish bets.
From a technical perspective, gold prices fell below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the rebound from December to February last year last week, which is seen as a key trigger by sellers. In addition, oscillators on the daily chart have just begun to gain negative traction and support the prospect of gold prices continuing the corrective pullback from the historical peak.
Therefore, any subsequent gains may still be seen as selling opportunities and are limited near $2,885/oz. The $2,900/oz mark is closely followed, and if it is broken, gold prices may climb to $2,934/oz before moving towards the record high near $2,956/oz.
On the other hand, Friday's swing low (around the $2,833-2,832/oz area) now seems to protect the recent downside. If it falls below the above area, gold prices may fall to the 38.2% Fibonacci level (around $2,815-2,810/oz). If gold encounters some follow-up selling and falls below the $2,800/oz mark, it may indicate that gold prices have peaked and may pave the way for further declines.
3.3 Gold is under high pressure, beware of a pullbackThe gold four-hour line is also suppressed by the moving average, and the rebound is short-lived, and it is directly pressed on the floor. At the same time, the upper resistance of 2880 and 2890 is an obvious resistance. The K line is just a rebound and is definitely not a reversal. It is obviously still empty below the two resistances, and the K line is suppressed directly to the point of being unable to breathe, and is pressed on the floor. The K line goes down from 2955 to 2830. This big short is obviously still strong.
Short-term suggestion 2880 SELL