Gold V-shaped reversal breaks through new highs to usher in a buFundamental analysis:
The erratic tariff plans of the US administration have shaken the entire global market, with market participants scrambling for direction and certainty. This is usually supportive for gold, which has risen 18% so far this year. Gold has also been boosted by expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve and central bank purchases.
Technical interpretation:
From the 4-hour chart, spot gold has completed a typical V-shaped reversal pattern, rebounding strongly after a deep correction. After hitting a low of $2,956.67, gold prices launched a counterattack, breaking through the suppression of multiple moving averages in one fell swoop, and finally stood firm at the key resistance level of $3,100. It is worth noting that gold prices are currently running above the rising trend line, which indicates that the short-term trend has clearly turned bullish.
The MACD indicator shows a strong bullish signal, with the DIFF line and the DEA line forming a golden cross, and the DIFF value is 13.58 and the DEA value is -1.55, indicating that the upward momentum is accumulating at an accelerated rate. At the same time, the MACD bar chart continues to expand, further confirming the strengthening of bullish power.
Although the daily MACD indicator temporarily shows signs of high divergence, the DIFF value is 35.22 and the DEA value is 40.67, but both are at high levels, indicating that the medium- and long-term momentum is still strong. The daily RSI is 62.58, which is in a moderately strong area and does not show obvious overbought. The daily CCI is 74.30, which also shows that the medium-term upward momentum is still continuing.
Analysis of short-term operation ideas:
After the gold price broke through the key resistance of $3,100, the technical side showed a clear trend of strengthening. If it can stand firm at this level, the next target will point to the historical high of $3,167.60, and a new round of upside will be opened after the breakthrough. In terms of support, $3,060.00 (previous breakthrough position) will provide effective support. If it fails, it may pull back to the lower track of the rising channel near $2,968.00. Recent US inflation data and trade situation developments will become key catalysts for short-term trends.
Goldinvesting
Bull market hides falling crisis!Gold rose sharply to around 3170 in the short term. Gold is in an obvious bull market. I think we should not be too optimistic! Don't blindly chase gold in trading!!!
Although it is only one step away from the previous high, it not only faces the psychological resistance of 3200, but also multiple integer resistance. After the fundamental positive factors are exhausted, it is difficult for gold to have enough power to continue to rise and break through the heavy resistance.
So the sharp rise of gold is likely to be a bull market trap, in order to confuse more people to chase gold, and large institutional funds take the opportunity to sell! So in terms of short-term trading, I still will not vigorously chase long gold, I will start to short gold gradually in batches! The faster gold rises, the faster it may collapse!
Bros, I am not afraid of shorting gold now. I think short trading can also bring me huge profits. The retracement target first focuses on the area around 3135.The trading strategy verification accuracy rate is more than 90%; one step ahead, exclusive access to trading strategies and real-time trading settings
Gold continues to strengthen and fluctuates widely in the short Gold stabilized near the 200-period moving average at the beginning of this week, and the current upward trend is supported by the daily chart oscillator indicators. Both the daily RSI and MACD remain in the bullish range, with obvious momentum;
The upper target is concentrated in the 3167-3168 US dollar line, which is the historical high set at the beginning of this month; if it successfully breaks through this area, the gold price may enter a new upward channel.
In the short term, the support level below $3100 is concentrated in the 3065-3060 US dollar range, and a break below it will open a downward channel to $3000. The $3000 mark coincides with the 200-period moving average of the 4-hour chart, which is the key long-short dividing point;
If it falls below this point, it means that gold has entered the correction stage, and bulls need to remain vigilant; but the current fundamentals and market sentiment still strongly support the gold price to maintain high volatility.
Gold price rally resumes?Market news:
In the early Asian session on Thursday (April 10), spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading at $3,085/ounce. International gold staged a "violent rise" on Wednesday, soaring more than 3% in a single day, the largest increase since March 2020, and approaching the $3,100 mark during the session. Behind this epic market is the Trump administration's decision to raise tariffs on Asian giants to 125% - the market panic index instantly exploded, and investors once frantically sold stocks and industrial commodities, pushing gold to the safe haven throne.The capriciousness of the US government's tariff plan has shaken the world, and investors are looking for direction and certainty. This generally supports gold. Although the 90-day tariff suspension order has caused the London gold price to fall slightly to $3,082, traders' fingers are still hanging on the buy button: the current gold price has soared by $400 from the beginning of the year, and is only one step away from the historical peak of $3,167 on April 3! All eyes are on Thursday's US CPI data - if inflation exceeds expectations again, the market's fear of the Fed's "longer and higher" interest rate will send gold prices to $3,200; if the data is weak, the expectation of an early rate cut will trigger more crazy safe-haven buying. In addition, it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States. Several Fed officials will speak on this trading day, and investors also need to pay attention.
Technical Review:
Market news influences everything, tariffs are escalated again, and gold rose sharply to 3099.4 in the late trading, close to the 3100 mark, and retreated sharply by more than $50 to 3048 before closing. The daily line turned from negative to strong positive and closed. The New York closing price on the daily chart once again stood on the MA10-day moving average, and the one-day trend was broken and the volatility was quite large. Be alert to the market's extreme volatility again, closing strong at a high level in the early morning. From the short-term trend, the bulls have the upper hand, showing an extremely obvious strong pattern. Therefore, the focus of the day needs to be on whether this rising trend can continue. After the correction during the day, participate in the low-price buying layout. If there is no correction during the day and the 3100 mark is broken first, pay attention to the opportunity to buy at a low price after the 3100 mark is broken.
Today's analysis:
At present, gold continues to rebound, and the previous view remains unchanged. The general trend is buying, but it is currently in the mid-term adjustment period. As emphasized earlier, after the previous sharp drop in gold, it is still necessary to continue to be bullish without directly changing the current strength. This is why I have been suggesting buying in the past two days. From a technical point of view, the rebound to 2956 at the beginning of the week ushered in a rebound, and the lows gradually moved up. On Wednesday, the daily line closed with a big positive line, so the previous 2956 position formed a bottoming performance, and the Bollinger closing became more and more obvious. The technical conditions for this wave of bottoming have been met, so there was a bullish outbreak in the US market on Wednesday. As long as the current gold market stands firmly at 3100, it can continue to look up to 3136 or even 3167 or higher. In the 4-hour chart of gold, we can see that the market has been advancing all the way, forming a head and shoulders bottom pattern at 2955 and 2970. In the short term, we will first see whether it can stand above 3100, and then see whether it can form a unilateral surge and reach a new high. Therefore, trading should still be mainly based on buying, waiting for the trend to rise. The support below can refer to the 3062 and 3035 positions of the US market retracement on Wednesday to continue to be bullish, and make effective buy orders above these positions respectively. If it breaks, wait for the next support position to continue buying. As long as these two positions are maintained, the short-term bullish trend will remain unchanged.
Operation ideas:
Buy short-term gold at 3062-3065, stop loss at 3053, target at 3090-3100;
Sell short-term gold at 3133-3136, stop loss at 3145, target at 3100-3080;
Key points:
First support level: 3073, second support level: 3062, third support level: 3050
First resistance level: 3100, second resistance level: 3116, third resistance level: 3136
Gold continues to rise and break through!Gold was driven by risk aversion news, and soared more than $100 in a single day yesterday, with a huge positive line on the daily line! At present, it has broken through the 3100 mark. It is difficult for gold to continue to be long and short. The next step is more of a big sweep!
At present, the 3100 mark will be the key to the next long and short positions. It is under pressure to continue to be bearish. The key 3055-50 area below is the long breakthrough point, which is also the support area for the two declines in the US market. Once it breaks down, it indicates that the rise started at 2970 yesterday has ended and returned to the short position.
If gold breaks upward and stands above the 3100 mark with the help of news, the long position will gradually rise to 3115-20 and 3135-40 (last Friday's high point) and even test the historical high of 3167 to build a daily double top!
Intraday operation:
The 3100 mark is used as a long-short boundary. If it breaks through, you can consider short-term long positions. After pulling up, refer to the above target position, which is also a resistance position, and arrange short positions again.
XAU/USD(20250410) Today's AnalysisMarket news:
Only 13 hours after it came into effect, Trump announced the suspension of the reciprocal tariff policy for most economies for 90 days for negotiations. Trump also said that he had been considering the suspension in the past few days. He now suspends the reciprocal measures because he feels that everyone has overreacted, and seems a bit panicked and a bit scared. He will consider exempting some American companies; the White House said that a 10% global tariff will still be imposed during the negotiations, and previously announced industry tariffs such as automobiles, steel and aluminum are not included in the suspension.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
3050.81
Support and resistance levels:
3179
3131
3100
3001
2970
2922
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 3100, consider buying, the first target price is 3131
If the price breaks through 3050, consider selling, the first target price is 3001
Gold bulls are in the driver's seat, beware of a pullback!Fundamental analysis:
A new round of tariff shocks has become a core factor affecting the trend of gold prices. "The rebound in gold reflects the market's growing concerns about tariff threats and the possible reshaping of global trade norms."
Technical interpretation:
The 4-hour chart shows that gold prices have now formed a clear upward channel, with support and resistance lines connecting lows and highs respectively. Recently, the price came near the MA200 moving average, and at the same time found buying near the key support level of $3015.00. From the MACD indicator, the DIFF line (0.41) and the DEA line (-8.65) have formed a golden cross, and the bar chart has turned red and the volume has increased, suggesting that upward momentum is accumulating. The RSI indicator is at the 60.47 level, close to but not yet in the overbought area, indicating that there is still room for upward movement. The CCI indicator is at 150.94. Although it is in the overbought area, the trend is strong and no obvious top divergence has yet to appear. It is worth noting that the recent price has not fallen below the lower track of the rising channel during the decline, indicating that bulls are still dominant.
Operational analysis:
The gold price is currently at a key technical position and has just retested the support level near MA55. If it can stand firm at this position, it is expected to retest the resistance level of $3090.00, and further breakthroughs may challenge the previous high of $3167.60. The short-term MACD golden cross signal strengthens the bullish expectations, but if the support of $3015.00 cannot be maintained, it may fall back to $2980.00. The lower track of the rising channel will be the key line of defense for the long-short boundary.
Will gold hit a new record high again?Gold rose to the 3040-3050 area as expected. The tariff issue also stimulated the bullish sentiment in the gold market. The current price is not a good entry point for both long and short parties.
Another point that everyone must be more concerned about is whether gold will rise again and break through and set a new high! I think it is not easy to draw a conclusion at present, because there is still resistance in the 3060-3075 area above. Only if gold successfully breaks through this resistance area, then gold will have the possibility of continuing to rise and set a new high;
At present, the gold bull-bear dividing line is in the 3060-3070 area. When gold touches this area, we can start to try to short gold; the first focus below is the 3025-3015 support area. If gold falls back to this area first, we might as well try to go long gold again in small batches.
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Technical analysis of short-term operations in the US market on 4,9 US trading operation interpretation ideas:
Today, there was a bottoming out and rebound. In the morning, it first went south and then north. It fell sharply to 2970 and then quickly counterattacked 3000 after entering the Asian session! I emphasized in the morning that the gold short may be coming to an end! It will enter a short-term sharp decline and then rebound! But the current trend is obvious that today's increase has exceeded expectations!
We must beware of the possibility of a V-reversal in the US market! Although the large-scale purchase of gold caused by the selling of US bonds is still difficult to confirm the long position in the US market!
The intraday increase is close to 90 points! There may be two emotions.
1: The market impact after the tariffs are implemented has not been eliminated
2: If the bullish trend continues in the US market, it may retreat to around 3045 in the future, and continue to be bullish later!
Short-term support: 3045---3030----3000
Pressure level: 3075---3080---3100---3135
4.9 Gold price trend after the Fed meetingIn the early European session, spot gold maintained its amazing intraday gains, and the current price is around $3046/oz, up $64 on the day.
Gold's latest technical trading analysis:
Gold's recent sharp decline from its all-time high has stalled near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the February-April rally. The support level is around the $2957-2956/oz area, or the multi-week low hit on Monday, followed by the 50-day moving average (currently around $2952/oz). If gold falls below the latter, it will be seen as a new trigger by bearish traders and drag gold to the next important support level around $2920/oz, and then all the way down to $2900/oz.
On the other hand, the momentum of gold breaking through the overnight high (around the $3023/oz area) could push gold prices to the $3055-3056/oz barrier. Some follow-up buying should pave the way for gold to return to the $3,100/oz mark, with some intermediate barriers around $3,075-3,080/oz.
Support: 3,030 3,018 3,000
Resistance: 3,045 3,068 3,080
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Get Rich: Buy Cheap GoldAfter a sharp decline, gold seems to have insufficient bullish momentum compared to before, but this is only in comparison. In fact, after gold hit the low point near 2957, the low and high points of gold are gradually rising. We can see that the bulls are gradually and implicitly picking up cheap chips.
So now we can't blindly short gold. According to the current gold structure, gold may continue to rebound above 3030, or even around 3050. These two positions will be the target areas for long traders and will also be the entry prices suitable for short traders.
So for short-term trading, I will adjust my trading strategy and plan in time. If gold falls back to the 3000-2990 area, I may first tend to go long on gold!
It must be noted that the current gold price fluctuates frequently and violently, so you must be particularly patient first. Because once there is no good entry price, it is difficult to set the psychological SL, and setting a relatively small SL is easy to be hit in market fluctuations!
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Go long gold, target: 3030-3040Gold tested the support of 2985-2975 again during the correction process, but did not fall below this area during the test. Combined with the structural lows of gold yesterday, they were 2970 and 2956. Today, gold did not fall below 2970, so it is very likely that gold will form a head and shoulders bottom pattern at the technical level, which will help gold to continue its rebound momentum with this strong technical support!
So I think the short-term decline of gold is not a risk for us, but the best gift for us. So I advocate going long on gold from now on. After gold repeatedly tests the support, it will rise to the 3030-3040 area without hesitation.
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4.9 Technical analysis of short-term gold operations!Gold market analysis
Gold idea: We need to pay attention to whether the daily line will rise after reaching a low. The daily line is hovering at the bottom. In a volatile market, we must find a range of volatility. Finding the rhythm is the most important thing. Yesterday, the daily line formed a cross star again. Today, the white market is expected to fluctuate. In addition, there are many fundamentals in the near future. The market has been led by the rhythm. Gold rose well before. The sharp drop was also due to Trump’s tariff policy. The global tariff war is inevitable in the future. It will support the US dollar in the long term and suppress gold. The short-term top of the weekly line may be a long-term top.
Today’s idea: Let’s focus on the 2969-3022 volatility range. If the white market rebounds first and approaches 3022, go short first. On the contrary, if gold breaks and stands on 3022, it will also fluctuate, but the center of gravity of the volatility will rise to the 3000-3055 range. The volatility requires patience to wait for the position, and waiting is also part of the transaction.
Support level: 2990-2969,
Pressure: 3022 3035
4.9 gold rebound increases resistance level and continues shortiFundamentals:
On Tuesday (April 8), the price of gold fluctuated slightly higher in the early US trading. The market is currently expecting a continuous decline, and at the same time paying attention to the logic of short selling at resistance points. After briefly hitting a four-week low on Monday, the price of gold rebounded quickly and rebounded strongly to above $3,000 in the Asian and European trading on Tuesday.
Against this background, gold, as the ultimate safe-haven asset with "zero credit risk", has once again become the main allocation target of market funds. Every macro policy imbalance and external shock will bring cyclical buying to gold, and this time the intensity may be stronger. The current gold price has stabilized at the psychological level of $3,000 and is showing a short-term rising structure. From a technical perspective, the gold price in the daily chart quickly rose after stepping back on the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level ($2,956), showing the resilience of buying. If the gold price breaks through the short-term resistance of $3,020, the upward target will be the $3,055 and $3,080 areas, and further may rise to the $3,100 mark. The key support level below is still around $2956. If it fails, it may test the 50-day moving average support (about $2947). Once this level is lost, it may trigger more technical selling pressure. The biggest variable facing the current market is no longer inflation data, but the destructive impact of Trump's tariff increase on the global trade pattern. The Fed's policy space is opening up rapidly. Driven by the expectation of interest rate cuts and risk aversion demand, gold not only stabilizes the $3,000 mark, but is also likely to re-enter the main upward trend.
Personal operation analysis:
Trend: shock trend
Support: 3000----2983------2965
Resistance: 3008-----3030-------3050
Strategy:
Viewpoint logic:
Short view near 3030, stop loss 3036, take profit near 3000----2970, and track stop loss 300 points.
4.8 Gold continues to run at a low point!Gold stabilized and rebounded on Tuesday (April 8), with an intraday increase of nearly 1%, successfully recovering the losses of the previous trading day. The rebound ended the three-day correction trend, and the gold price rebounded significantly from the key support level of $2,955. The current market focus is on the evolution of the Fed's policy path and the geopolitical trade situation. Under the interweaving of long and short factors, the short-term volatility of gold has risen significantly.
Fundamentals: The struggle between risk aversion and interest rate expectations
The rebound of gold at the beginning of this week was mainly driven by two factors:
1. The escalation of geopolitical trade risks
US President Trump's recent remarks on tariffs have triggered market concerns about the renewed tension in the global trade system.
2. The Fed's interest rate expectations fluctuated sharply
The interest rate futures market has undergone dramatic changes this week: On Monday, the market once bet that the Fed would cut interest rates five times in 2025, a significant shift from the expectation of "one or no interest rate cut" a week ago.
3. The coordination of the US dollar and capital flows
The US dollar index weakened slightly on Tuesday, reducing the cost of holding gold for non-US investors.
Technical aspect: Attack and defense of key support level
From the perspective of the market structure, the trend of gold this week showed typical "sharp drop and slow rise" characteristics:
Support confirmation: On Monday, the gold price accurately tested the support of $2955 and then rebounded. This position corresponds to the neckline of the platform that broke through in mid-March, and formed a double defense line with the 55-day moving average (US$2930). The intraday lows were densely bought, indicating that medium- and long-term investors viewed the correction as an opportunity to build positions.
Resistance distribution: The first resistance above is at US$3040 (daily line R1), and after breaking through, it may test US$3057 (March 20 pivot point) and US$3097 (R2). The historical high of US$3167 is still a psychological barrier, but it is difficult to challenge it directly in the short term.
In the short term, the trend of gold will depend on two major catalysts: 1. The minutes of the Fed's March meeting on Wednesday: If the minutes suggest an open attitude towards rate cuts, it may push gold prices to test the $3,050-3,070 range; conversely, if the emphasis is on inflation stickiness, it may trigger long profit-taking. 2. Progress in trade negotiations: Any substantive implementation or easing of tariff policies may trigger fluctuations of more than 5% in gold prices. In the medium term, the upward trend of gold has not been broken. Institutional research reports show that the current global central bank's demand for gold purchases is still at a historical high, and in the downward cycle of interest rates, the relative attractiveness of interest-free assets will continue to stand out. If the technical side breaks through $3,057, it will open up space for the impact of the previous high; the defense strength of the $2,950-2,930 area needs to be closely monitored below.
Gold has won two consecutive games, continue to short?Gold continued to be in a dead cross downward short position at 1 hour. The strength of gold short positions has not diminished. Gold fell near the resistance of 3017, and the gold moving average resistance has now moved down to near 3021. After gold rebounds, it is still mainly short selling.
Trading ideas: short gold near 3015, stop loss 3025, target 2990
The above is only a sharing of personal opinions and does not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky and you are responsible for your profits and losses.
Gold----Sell near 3013, target 2980-2960Gold market analysis:
The gold market has been fluctuating a lot in the past few days because of the tariff issue, which has led to too much uncertainty in the market. Gold closed with a large tombstone candlestick pattern on the weekly line, which means that the top has appeared. Short-term buying is not as strong as those. Yesterday, gold hit a new low again. The daily cross star has a very long upper shadow. Today, we are more inclined to sell in the face of large fluctuations. Gold may continue yesterday's fluctuations. Today, we need to focus on finding the rhythm. It swings up and down by dozens of points. Buying and selling games are used to intercept the range. 3055 is already a new large suppression position. Today, 3055 is weak below. If it breaks, we will see a new buying momentum.
In the Asian session, we focus on the small suppression in the 3013-3016 area. This position is the bottom of yesterday's small shock. In addition, the indicator suppression position is 3008-3010. The Asian session is rising strongly. The 4H is expected to close with a big positive. You can decisively sell at the suppression position. Even if it breaks, there will be a large-scale retracement. If gold stands near 3016, it may return to the oscillation range of 3016-3055.
Suppression 3013-3016, strong pressure 3045 and 3055, support 2986, 2971, 2956, the strength and weakness dividing line of the market is 3000.
Fundamental analysis:
The US tariffs on the world are still brewing, which has also led to a sharp drop in global stock markets, and the market is not optimistic about expectations. Later this week, we will focus on the heavyweight CPI data.
Operation suggestions:
Gold----Sell near 3013, target 2980-2960
4.8 Technical analysis of short-term gold operations!Spot gold rebounded slightly during the Asian session on Tuesday (April 8), once rising above the 3,000 mark, and is currently trading around $2,995.51 per ounce. Spot gold may rebound to $3,049 per ounce, as the price has previously completed a five-wave cycle starting from $3,168.
Analysts pointed out that the peak of wave d is around $3,049, which can be used as a rebound target. It is still difficult to judge whether this cycle is an impulse wave cycle or a correction wave cycle.
If it is an impulse wave cycle, it means that the downward trend will extend to well below $2,950. The correction wave cycle shows that despite the sharp drop from $3,168, the upward trend from $2,831 remains intact.
The information shown on the daily chart is very clear. The sharp drop in the past few days seems to be driven by wave (4), which may end near the strong support level of $2,970. The next wave (5) will push the upward trend above $3167.
Resistance level: 3015----3038-----3050
Pressure level: 3000---29833-----2970
Gold price plummets by $100!Market news:
In the early Asian session on Tuesday (April 8), spot gold fluctuated widely and is currently trading around $2,995/ounce. Gold prices fell nearly 2% on Monday, falling for three consecutive trading days. The lowest intraday price hit $2,956/ounce, a drop of nearly $100. London gold bulls suffered a bloodbath. After the United States' comprehensive tariffs triggered concerns about a global economic recession, investors turned to the US dollar as a safe haven. However, given the grim economic situation, there is still a certain amount of bargain hunting to support international gold prices.Trump refuted rumors of a 90-day suspension of tariffs, pushing the US dollar index to rebound. When the US dollar appreciates, gold becomes expensive for buyers holding foreign currencies. Amid market turmoil, investors turned to cash and safe haven assets such as the Swiss franc and the yen, which raised the risk of a deeper correction in gold prices. It should be reminded that although Federal Reserve Chairman Powell did not say that the Fed was eager to resume rate cuts, federal funds rate futures traders increased their bets on the number of rate cuts the Fed will make this year. This week’s U.S. economic focus will be the March consumer price and producer price reports, which will be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. Data from last Friday showed that employers added more jobs than expected last month, but the unemployment rate also rose!
Technical Review:
The gold daily line structure continued to fluctuate downward, the moving average opened downward, and the RSI indicator ran below the middle axis. The rise was not continuous, and the tariff impact remained. Yesterday, the market reported a 90-day tariff suspension. It can be seen that U.S. stocks, crude oil, gold and silver all rose rapidly, and then it was confirmed to be false news, and then fell back quickly. It can be seen that as long as the impact of the tariff news does not change, all assets will continue to sell.
The market is currently in a two-way power game between the selling of risky assets and the rising demand for risk aversion. Although gold is a safe-haven asset, it is also facing the pressure of liquidity withdrawal. In the context of the unclear Fed policy and the continued escalation of global trade concerns, the price of gold may continue to maintain a volatile pattern, and the main idea is to sell at a high price! However, the current fluctuation is too fast and the amplitude is too large, so short-term operations may not be easy to start, but the direction is still the most important, followed by the position, which means that gold will fall sharply. Gold hit 2956 and then bottomed out and rebounded, but the recent market is actually volatile. Because the fluctuation is relatively large, it is reasonable to have a larger amplitude, but it increases the difficulty of operation. Gold fell back after rising again, and now it is caught in a large range of fluctuations, but the overall trend is still selling.
Today's analysis:
Yesterday's early trading had a new low, and another new low in the evening. In such a market environment, new lows continue to appear. This is a weak market, and this is a selling market. When the 3000 point fell below, the faith of many investors collapsed. They wanted to stand firm at the 3000 mark, but it broke at this moment, which means that the current downward trend has not ended yet, and continue to sell along with the trend. The 1-hour moving average of gold continues to cross downward and sell, and the selling force has not weakened; the rebound is still short. Although gold rushed higher after filling the gap in 1 hour, the upper shadow line came down quickly. The overall trend is still weak, and the short-term pressure is around 3030! Today's rebound is under pressure at the resistance of 3030, and it is still possible to continue selling. The market is changing rapidly. Although gold seems to have rebounded strongly, it eventually rushed up and fell back. Gold is still the main place for selling, but now it is more volatile. Pay attention to patiently wait for the rebound, and the volatility should not be underestimated. However, the idea is to continue to sell at a high price.
Operation ideas:
Short-term gold 2975-2978 buy, stop loss 2966, target 3010-3020;
Short-term gold 3030-3033 sell, stop loss 3042, target 2990-2980;
Key points:
First support level: 2978, second support level: 2963, third support level: 2955
First resistance level: 3000, second resistance level: 3013, third resistance level: 3030
4.8 Interpretation of gold short-term operation ideasGold price has fallen below the previous row support band in the daily trend. The K-line continues to be under pressure from the short-term moving average and maintains a weaker trend of shock. In the short term, pay attention to the pressure band around 3030. In the 4-hour level trend, the K-line is currently under pressure from the short-term moving average and is maintaining a low-level shock repair. The strength and continuation of the intraday rebound are not too large. Pay attention to the continued downward trend after a small break in the 4-hour level trend. At present, after continuous shocks in the small-level cycle trend, the technical pattern has begun to gradually adjust. The K-line has begun to slowly stand on the short-term moving average and tends to have a certain rebound space in the short-term trend. Pay attention to the short-term adjustment.
Operational suggestions:
Short near 3017-8, stop loss 3023.9, or long near 2945-6, stop loss 2939.1.
Real-time market intraday guidance.
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4.8 Gold Bollinger Bands bearish signal appearsRecently, the spot gold price once fell below the psychological barrier of $3,000, triggering technical concerns in the market about whether the gold bull market has reached its peak. On Monday (April 7) in the North American session, spot gold is currently trying to recover to around $3,030, but the technical indicators have shown obvious divergence.
Fundamental analysis
The market's concerns about US inflation continue to ferment, and the intensification of global trade frictions is driving the market's concerns about economic stagflation. The Fed's policy stance has also undergone subtle changes. The market has begun to price in five possible interest rate cuts this year. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in May has soared from 33.3% last Friday to 49.3%.
At present, traders are turning their attention to the US inflation data to be released this week, which will provide important clues for assessing the US economic situation.
Technical analysts' interpretation:
Bollinger band breakthrough signal indicates a short-term correction
On the daily chart, gold prices have formed a clear upward channel since mid-March, but recently touched the upper track of the Bollinger band and began to fall. It is worth noting that the middle track of the Bollinger Band 3006.13 has become a key support level. After breaking through the historical high of 3167.60, the price has shown a typical upward exhaustion pattern. The MACD indicator shows DIFF: 43.46, DEA: 48.65, MACD: -10.39, and the green kinetic energy column has begun to expand, indicating that the short-term downward momentum is accumulating.
RSI indicator shows overbought correction
The 120-minute chart shows that the RSI indicator has fallen from the overbought area to a neutral level of 40.37. At the same time, the CCI indicator has dropped to -45.05, further confirming the trend of short-term overbought correction.
Key support and resistance level analysis
The current gold price faces multiple technical resistances, among which 3055.00 and 3085.00 constitute the main resistance range for short-term rebound. The lower support levels are mainly concentrated at $3005.00 and $2971.31, and these two levels will determine whether the gold price can remain above the psychological level of $3,000. In particular, the $2971.31 level, as a recent low, may trigger a deeper adjustment if it is lost.
From the long-term daily chart, gold prices formed an accelerated upward channel after breaking through $2950.00. The recent high of $3167.60 is just at the upper track of the channel. This trend of peaking and falling is in line with the classic channel trading theory.
Outlook
Bull Outlook: If the US inflation data exceeds expectations, the market's expectations for a more aggressive rate cut by the Federal Reserve will be further strengthened, and gold prices are expected to re-challenge the high of $3167.60 after a correction. Technically, gold prices need to return to above $3055.00 to reactivate upward momentum. The widening of the Bollinger Band width indicates that volatility is increasing, which provides potential trading opportunities for bulls.
Bear Outlook: In the short term, the downward divergence of the upper track of the Bollinger Band indicates that gold prices may face further corrections. The MACD histogram turned green and continued to expand, suggesting that downward momentum is accumulating. If the gold price falls below the key support of $2,971.31, it may trigger a deeper adjustment, and the next target will be $2,950.00 or even $2,920.00.
Gold is still weak, rebound can still be shortedThe 1-hour moving average of gold still continues to cross downwards, and the strength of gold shorts has not weakened; gold rebounds are still mainly short selling. Although gold rose after covering the gap for one hour, the upper shadow line soon fell. Gold is still weak overall, and gold is under pressure near 3050 in the short term.
Trading idea: short gold near 3042, stop loss 3052, target 3022
The above is purely a sharing of personal opinions and does not constitute trading advice. Investments are risky and you are responsible for your profits and losses.
Crude oil------sell near 62.20, target 60.00-58.00Crude oil market analysis:
Trump's tariff policy has greatly stimulated crude oil, causing it to plunge all the way. At present, it has fallen to the bottom of the previous plunge again. We estimate that there will be a small counterattack at this position. The rebound is our opportunity to sell again. The idea of crude oil follows the general direction. Pay attention to the suppression near 62.20. The daily line shape shows that it will go down.
Operational suggestions
Crude oil------sell near 62.20, target 60.00-58.00