Decisively start the short-selling layoutThe results of the China-US talks were significant and exceeded market expectations. China and the US issued a joint statement, the core of which was to end the tariff war and reduce the tariffs of both sides to 34%, of which 24% will be temporarily exempted within 90 days.
At present, there is still a demand for a rebound. For the US market, we should first look at the area around 3245-55. If the rebound is in place, continue to play short orders to look at the target position of 3200. If it breaks upward, find a new point layout. This week's data and news will have a further impact on gold.
Operation suggestion: Short gold when it rebounds to around 3245-3255, pay attention to 3220 and 3200
Goldking
Seize the moment! The rebound is a good opportunity to shortGold was affected by the implementation of the China-US tariffs and the ceasefire between India and Pakistan, which weakened the market's risk aversion sentiment. The weekly line formed a double-needle top pattern, and continued to see downward adjustments this week. The daily line also has a double top structure, with 3500 and 3435 as double tops, and the neckline focuses on 3202. If it falls below, the double top pattern is confirmed. In terms of thinking, keep falling back and adjusting, with pressure focusing on 3260 and 3283, and support below focusing on 3200-3202. In terms of operation, rebound high and short are the main, and falling back is supplemented by long.
Operation suggestion: short gold when it rebounds to around 3255-65, and look at 3320 and 3200. long gold when it falls back to around 3210-3200, and look at 3320 and 3250.
Circular short selling is still the main themeGold has no power to rebound in the Asian session, and it keeps fluctuating and falling. The highest rebound was 3292, but it fell back under pressure, and the lowest touched 3217. The fluctuation and decline are still dominant, so we only need to short on the rebound. It is still difficult to fill the gap at the opening today, so don't have hope. Just keep shorting on the rebound. The weekend article also analyzes the bearish opening this week. After all, the international situation of India and Pakistan's comprehensive ceasefire and Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations are mainly bearish for gold. Coupled with the technical shorts, it is reasonable for gold to jump short. Today, we will treat gold as rebound shorting. In terms of operation, we will mainly short on rebound and be a steady trader. Judging from the current trend of gold, the main short rhythm of the pullback will continue to remain unchanged before the daily level breaks through and stands at this position.
It’s the right time to go shortLast week, gold came under pressure at the key resistance of 3356 and then fluctuated downwards. The market jumped short and opened low, directly breaking through the support to a low of 3259, and the daily line continued the downward trend. The current market is in the daily level adjustment stage, but the downward momentum is strong and the risk of breaking continues to accumulate. From a technical perspective, 3280 constitutes a short-term upward resistance. If the rebound is blocked, you can still choose to arrange short orders; there is strong support near 3240 below, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether this position can be effectively broken to confirm the accelerated decline. On the news side, the easing of the Sino-US tariff situation has weakened the market's risk aversion sentiment. In addition, the bullish momentum of gold has been exhausted after the previous consecutive rises, and the recent weak and volatile pattern has become prominent.
Gold recommendation: short near 3280-3290, target 3270-3260.
Gold opening rise and fall prediction?The current gold market is in a range of fluctuations, maintaining a wide range of fluctuations. Technically, the key support level below is still focused on the 3270 area, while the 3450 price level above constitutes a significant double-top structural resistance level. Although the conclusion of the US-UK tariff agreement has a phased negative effect on precious metals at the geopolitical level and may provide a demonstration effect for other regional trade negotiations, the overall technical structure still maintains a downward trend. At the daily level, the recent K-line combination has completed a deep retracement from the 3500 mark with two long negative lines, directly breaking through an important support platform. The current daily K-line continues to close the adjustment pattern with an upper shadow line, and the alternating yin and yang oscillation rhythm conforms to the technical correction characteristics. It is worth noting that the 50-period moving average continues a clear downward trajectory, forming a resonance suppression with the double-top structure in the 3450 area.
The 1-hour gold chart shows that the short-term price trend presents a clear downward channel feature, and the seller's power continues to dominate the market. Combined with the Fibonacci extension level calculation, the first target below can still focus on the 3300 area. If this support platform is lost, the price will have a technical demand to further explore the 3320 integer mark. The current volume and price coordination shows that the market is brewing a new wave of trending market conditions. It is necessary to pay close attention to the breakthrough direction of the 3300-3380 range, which will determine the continuation or reversal of the medium-term trend. Taken together, the short-term operation of gold is recommended to be mainly longs on callbacks, supplemented by shorts on rebounds. The top short-term focus is on the first-line resistance of 3360-3380, and the bottom short-term focus is on the first-line support of 3320-3300.
The market is full of crises next week!📌Fundamentals:
This weekend, China and the United States held two days of negotiations as scheduled. It seems that there are many topics to discuss and the scope is wide, but they are still trying to reach a consensus. Otherwise, there is no need to spend two days of intensive talks. Some people think that after so long, there is no conclusion, which is bad news. I think the opposite. At this time, no bad news means good news. Based on the current "marathon" negotiation time, we need to be vigilant about the expected difference in the results of this round of negotiations. The second is the India-Pakistan conflict. After the talks led by the United States, India and Pakistan have agreed to a comprehensive and immediate ceasefire. Judging from this line alone, there will definitely be no risk of risk aversion rising when the market opens on Monday. The only thing is that the results of this round of negotiations between China and the United States are quite important, and there will definitely be results before the opening of Monday.
📊Technological aspects:
Even if the current round of China-US negotiations achieves an optimistic result, gold cannot fall below 3300. If it falls below 3300 and hits the low point below 3275 again, then the next step for gold is very likely to touch the high point of 3160-50 where the trade war started. On the contrary, if gold can hold 3300, then it is very likely to move like the previous wave, break the range, stand above 3360-70, then gold will continue to return to above 3400. Therefore, the most critical position for the opening of next week is the support position of 3300 below and the suppression position of 3360-70 above. If it breaks, the trend will almost move in that direction.
Risk aversion in China-US negotiations cools down!Gold closed with an "inverted hammer" positive line this week. The upper shadow line was mainly due to the continued stimulation of gold's safe-haven properties by the news at the beginning of the week. However, the tariff war with previous lessons helped the gold price to hit a historical high of 3500. The reaction of gold prices to this news this week was not as enthusiastic as before, which also led to the stop of the rise at 3439. The announcement of the interest rate decision in the second half of the week was in line with expectations. The gold price plunged 170 points in two days and stabilized above the 3300 mark as of yesterday's closing. Based on the previous evening star combination and this week's inverted hammer, it is believed that the gold price will continue to fall next week and will close below the real time, that is, below 3306.
From the perspective of daily K, this week is generally a trend of rising and falling, and a slight rebound follows after the decline at the end of the week. Weekly Review We continue with the analysis of the second half of the week. From the perspective of the gold price trend since the high point of 3500, the first wave of decline has been considered to be over. The rebound from 3200 to 3439 did not exceed the previous high, so we will continue to analyze the second wave of decline, and strictly implement this idea in the operation. Now the overall trend of gold prices is also the same. Next week's operation will focus on the key suppression position of 3378 near the end of the week. If it cannot stand firm in the first half of the week, there is still a lot of room for further decline.
From the four-hour level, the triangle convergence pattern we analyzed is still there. Unexpectedly, there was a false break of the lower track in the Asian session on Friday. Next week, we still need to continue to pay attention to the support of this position. In general, next week, we will first pay attention to the operation of the range from 3378 to 3274, and wait for the break before I will re-analyze the structure. Once again, I would like to remind you that the news market is repeated, and the base of gold prices is too large, so the intraday volatility has also increased. It is also common to go up and down more than 100 points in a single day. Everyone needs to pay attention to the risk control of their positions.
In the short term, if we move to the hourly level, we can analyze the last wave of structure. The gold price rebounded after breaking through 3288 in the Asian session on Friday. After this action, the gold price rebounded quickly. Let’s not talk about who has the upper hand. From the last wave of rebound, the continuation is insufficient. If it is a restart of the bulls, the European and American sessions also need to cross the previous downward high point of 3368 to confirm. However, the European session was sideways throughout, and the US session also slightly continued the rebound trend and closed hastily. Therefore, at the opening of next week, it is necessary to continue to watch the gold price to test the support of the low point of the Asian session on Friday. In general, the operation ideas for next week are mainly high-altitude, and low-long also look at the rebound short-term.
View on the short-term trend of gold!📌Fundamentals:
Gold prices fell sharply. After Trump announced a "breakthrough" trade deal with the UK, market expectations for more similar deals increased, weakening gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
📊Technological aspects:
Gold quickly fell in the Asian session and then quickly stretched back up. As of now, it has stood above 3320. So the possibility of gold falling again is relatively small. And there is a possibility that gold will further hit Thursday's high of 3360-70. If 3202 to 3435 is regarded as wave a, then 3438 to today's low of 3275 is wave b. So the current rebound from 3275 will go up in wave c. The first suppression position above is 3360-70, the high point of yesterday's rebound. At present, gold has stabilized above 3320, so the next bullish target for gold is to test 3360-70. After the pressure appears, follow the trend and go short.
Special attention needs to be paid to gold operations on FridayThe current price fluctuates around the 3300-3348 range, with resistance at 3348-3352 and support at 3295-3303. If it breaks through 3348, be wary of a second surge to around 3365; conversely, if it loses 3295, it may fall back to the 3275-55 area.
Gold recommendation: short sell near 3335-3345 when it rebounds. Target position 3320-3310.
The range is broken and the bulls are ready to go!📌Fundamentals:
1. In the Fed's decision, Powell maintained the 4.25%-4.5% interest rate expectation, which was exactly the same as the expectation I mentioned, and predicted the result of the entire decision.
2. The India-Pakistan conflict intensified, and global geopolitical risks continued to heat up. From Gaza to Russia and Ukraine, and then to India and Pakistan, risk aversion will continue to provide long-term support for gold prices.
📊Technical aspects:
Affected by the interest rate decision, gold bottomed out and rebounded, but did not fall below the low of 3360. The daily line closed in the negative. The data had little impact. Of course, there are also concerns about the increase in inflation and unemployment caused by the increase in taxes. It is expected that there will be another interest rate cut in July, which provides support for gold. After the Asian session opened under short-term pressure at 3397, it broke through and increased in volume, and walked out of the shock range of the first half of the week. The previous article mentioned that squats and long jumps were realized. Today, we maintain a bullish mindset and pay attention to the top and bottom conversion support of 3400. If it can stabilize in the US market, we can continue to go long. The upper side will gradually look to 3423 and 3435, and it is not ruled out that it will go near the previous high.
🎯Practical strategy:
Gold is long near 3387-3380, and look at 3423 and 3435! If it is strong, it is long based on the support of 3402-3398!
Thinking and practical skills for winning in the 3360-3400 rangeAffected by the news, gold fell sharply at the opening. Successfully won. According to the trading strategy, we gave gold a wide range of fluctuations in the 3360-3400 range, which will not change much. It can be operated within the range during the day. The trading strategy analysis is accurate, and the key points are accurately grasped to enter the market, which brought us good returns during the day. The short-term rhythm is accurately grasped! Brothers who followed the trading plan should have also made very good profits. 🍻🍻🍻
The downside risk of gold increases!📌Fundamentals:
1. The conflict between India and Pakistan shows signs of escalation
2. US-Houthi ceasefire agreement
3. The Fed’s interest rate decision dominates this week’s market
4. International trade situation disturbs market sentiment
5. Market sentiment and capital flow
📊Technical aspects:
At present, on the hourly basis, gold is still under pressure at the small range resistance of 3400, and the current tariff crisis has cooled down. The data of the Fed's interest rate decision will cause a series of fluctuations in gold in the short term. At the same time, the market is betting that there will be further trend corrections, which may cause capital outflows in the market, which will further hit gold bulls!
There is actually a new round of operation opportunities in the short term. The short-term resistance should be around 3400, but since the game between major powers has not stopped, there will be no big negative factors. However, if the data layout does not fluctuate much, the market may not have a big dive. At present, we will temporarily play at the 3360-3400 level. If it breaks, we will make new adjustments!
🎯Practical strategy:
Gold: Short around 3390-3400 on the rebound, and the target is 3370-3360!
Intraday adjustment ends, follow up with low and long positions!📌Fundamentals:
1. The conflict between India and Pakistan shows signs of escalation
2. US-Houthi ceasefire agreement
3. The Fed’s interest rate decision dominates this week’s market
4. International trade situation disturbs market sentiment
5. Market sentiment and capital flow
📊Technical aspects:
Affected by the trade negotiations, gold reached a high of 3434 and came out of the 70 US dollar drop. It took advantage of the trend to follow up the short order and reached the target profit stop as scheduled! Then it fell back and went long again to reap profits. The daily line continued to close in the positive direction, and there was room for fallback and adjustment during the Asian session. However, the daily cycle did not support a sharp decline for the time being. The data during the day tended to be treated as shocks. Therefore, the bullish trend remained unchanged, and the support below was 3335. You can go long if it hits during the day. The short-term support is around 3360 and 3350. In terms of operation, it will continue to be low and long. When it stabilizes, it will go to 3410 or even near the high point. However, if the second test does not reach a new high, there may be a larger correction.
🎯Practical strategy:
Gold is long around 3350-55, looking at 3376 and 3410! If it is strong, go long based on the support of 3365-60!
Gold is once again experiencing its extreme take-off trend!📌Fundamentals:
1. There are signs of escalation in the India-Pakistan conflict
2. The Fed's interest rate decision dominates this week's market
3. The international trade situation disturbs market sentiment
4. Market sentiment and capital flows
📊Technical aspects:
The 4-hour cycle still needs a wave of strength, and it needs to go out of a wave of big rises before it can open the Bollinger upper track to form an absolute unilateral strength. Therefore, although it is temporarily bullish, there is also a certain possibility of adjustment. The current 4-hour cycle support is around 3310, and the small cycle performance support is around 3350, so don't chase more.
🎯Practical strategy:
Gold pulls back to around 3365-3375 to go long, and the target is around 3400-3420.
GOLD / XAUUSD: Breaking the down channel (correction wave)Therefore, if the 21-day SMA holds in the event of a weak US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, a rebound toward the immediate static support-turned-resistance at 3260 could occur.
A sustained move above that level would encourage Gold buyers to push further toward the former channel support, now acting as resistance, at 3405.
Gold continues to fluctuate widely, mainly long at low levelsAs gold broke below the 3300 mark in the European session, the market once again tested the 3270 first-line support, which is the edge of the lower track of the channel.
rading idea: Go long gold near 3270, with a strict stop loss of 3267 and a target of 3300
Gold fluctuates and is bearish, waiting for NF
📌 Policy factors
Gold prices (XAU/USD) continued to fall, falling to $3,310 in the current European session on Wednesday, as signs of improved global risk sentiment and easing trade tensions curbed demand for safe-haven assets. Market participants remained cautious ahead of the release of major US economic data, including ADP employment changes, core PCE price index and first quarter GDP preliminary values, all of which are scheduled to be released later today.
It is reported that President Trump suddenly signed an executive order to provide automakers with up to 15% tariff rebates to ease the impact of his auto tariff policy. Even more unexpectedly, US Commerce Secretary Lutnick revealed that a trade agreement had been reached secretly with a certain country. These major changes immediately triggered a strong market reaction.
📊Comment Analysis
Gold price maintains the accumulation range of 3265-3360, temporarily stable and waiting for large fluctuations
💰Strategy Package
🔥Sell gold area: 3368-3370 SL 3375
TP1: $3350
TP2: $3340
TP3: $3330
🔥Buy gold area: $3264-$3262 SL $3257
TP1: $3280
TP2: $3300
TP3: $3318
🔥Buy gold area: $3285-$3283 SL $3280 scalping
TP1: $3290
TP2: $3295
TP3: $3300
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the capital account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the capital account
Key intervals and trend judgmentKey range and trend judgment:
The current gold price is in a narrow range of 3300-3305 support zone and 3325-3330 pressure zone. Technical analysis:
1. Support logic:
- 3300 is an integer psychological barrier, which coincides with the MA60 moving average (dynamic support) of the 1-hour chart;
- After hitting the bottom of 3300 several times recently, it rebounded and formed a short-term bottom structure.
2. Pressure logic:
- 3330 is the upper rail resistance of the Bollinger band on the 4-hour chart, and it is the previous high-intensive trading area;
- The top divergence signal appears at the MACD daily level, suppressing the upward space.
3. Volume characteristics: Shrinking volume oscillation, need to wait for breakthrough and large volume to confirm the direction.
Trading strategy and operation plan
1. Buy low and sell high within the range (short-term)
Long position strategy:
Entry point: 3300-3305 range (price retracement does not break, and 1-hour chart RSI <30), try long with a light position. Take profit target: 3315 (first target), 3325 (second target) Stop loss 3292 (break through the previous low support).
Short position strategy:
Entry point: 3325-3330 range (price touches pressure and falls back, 15-minute chart MACD dead cross), try short with a light position, take profit target: 3310 (first target), 3300 (second target); Stop loss: 3338 (break through the previous high pressure).
2. Follow the trend after the breakthrough (trend following) Upward breakthrough (stabilizing 3330): Pursue long signal: the price breaks through 3330 with large volume and then falls back without breaking, the target is 3350-3360 (previous high of the daily line);
Stop loss: 3320 (below the breakthrough point).
Downward break (falling below 3300): Pursue short signal: the price falls below 3300 and the pullback confirmation is invalid, the target is 3280-3260 (weekly MA20 support); Stop loss: 3310 (above the break point).
Pattern interpretation:
- The 4-hour chart converges in a symmetrical triangle, and the theoretical target after the breakthrough is the height of the triangle ; If it breaks upward, the target is 3350; if it breaks downward, the target is 3270.
Volume coordination: When breaking through, the trading volume needs to be enlarged by more than 20%, otherwise be alert to false breakthroughs.
Gold is in the stage of oscillating and choosing direction in the short term, and the strategy is mainly to sell high and buy low within the range + follow the breakthrough.
Gold prices bottomed out and rebounded, market trend analysis.Analysis of gold trend: From the perspective of market sentiment, interest-free gold as a safe-haven asset has performed strongly this year, with prices soaring by nearly $700 and hitting record highs several times. However, the recent optimistic expectations of easing global economic and trade relations have boosted market risk appetite, and the equity market has generally performed positively. Some funds have flowed out of safe-haven assets such as gold and turned to risky assets, which is also the main psychological factor under pressure on gold prices. If market risk appetite continues to improve, global economic and trade relations further ease, and the US dollar strengthens, gold prices may face greater downward pressure. From a technical point of view, the gold price needs to effectively fall below the $3,265-3,260 range in the short term before a larger correction downward may be confirmed. Once confirmed to fall below, the gold price may quickly fall to the 50% retracement level near $3,225, further pointing to the $3,200 mark. If $3,200 is lost, it will suggest that gold may have peaked in the short term.
Gold opened higher in the Asian session on Monday and continued to fall last week after hitting 3336. The idea of the Asian session was to directly bearish at the analysis point of 3277. After hitting the lowest point of 3268, it fluctuated upward. The European session also fell to 3273 and then rebounded. The highest point in the US session just reached 3336 again, a standard bottoming and rebounding trend. Since it is an adjustment structure, let's re-analyze the idea. The gold price fell at 3500 and rebounded at 3260 last Wednesday. The rhythm was volatile. It rebounded above 3260 many times below and did not cross the first rebound high of 3367 above.
Today, we mainly focus on the closing price. If it stands firmly at the 3313 line, we will adjust our thinking on Tuesday. On the contrary, it will fall back after encountering resistance at 3336, today's opening high, and go to 3278. On Tuesday, we will continue to look at the idea of swinging and falling. Now it is the end of the market, and the market is also falling from a high.
How to profit from gold volatility!📌 Driving events
Looking ahead to this trading day, whether gold prices can rise further may still depend on Trump's tariff headlines and the upcoming Fed speech, as there is still no top economic data released on the US calendar
📊Comment analysis
In fact, the US trading time for gold today is to pay attention to short-term adjustments. Gold now seems to be accustomed to gold bulls for risk aversion. Although gold is supported by risk aversion today, the strength of gold bulls is not very strong. Gold has repeatedly hit highs and fallen back. Gold 3228 continues to be short, and the decline is harvested. The US market rebounds 3225 and continues to be short. Gold falls again and harvests. Gold is still adjusting at a high level. Don't chase the high for the time being. Gold rebounds and rushes high and can still continue to be short.
Today, short-term gold bulls have begun to be unable to do their best, so gold bears may start at any time. Gold still has the opportunity to adjust. Gold continues to watch the adjustment market in the short term and pay attention to trading signals in time.
Card the price and participate well. Grasp the rhythm of long and short two-way transactions. You will find that this volatility is much more fun than the big volatility.
💰Strategy Package
US trading ideas:
Short gold at 3230-35, stop loss at 3240, target at 3190-3180;
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the fund account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
Gold has won two consecutive games, continue to short?Gold continued to be in a dead cross downward short position at 1 hour. The strength of gold short positions has not diminished. Gold fell near the resistance of 3017, and the gold moving average resistance has now moved down to near 3021. After gold rebounds, it is still mainly short selling.
Trading ideas: short gold near 3015, stop loss 3025, target 2990
The above is only a sharing of personal opinions and does not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky and you are responsible for your profits and losses.
Gold continues to fall, what will happen next week?After the gold price fluctuated sharply at the high level in the past two days, gold finally broke down on Friday. In fact, the market was too active in the past two days, and the overall volatility was very large. In fact, it was still a little difficult to trade. Although the overall outlook is bearish, the rebound amplitude is actually not small each time. Now sometimes it rebounds more than 20 US dollars in a few minutes, so it may continue to fall after a loss. Now that the gold daily high is covered by dark clouds, how should we trade next week?
The gold 1-hour moving average has formed a death cross downward, so the gold shorts still have power, and the short-term gold can only rebound. After the rebound, the shorts will continue, and then the gold will enter a shock. After the high-level plunge of gold, the shorts will be more dominant in the short term. Unless there is a big positive news, it is difficult for gold to rise directly. The resistance for gold's rebound is 3076. If it is under pressure, then gold's rebound will mainly continue to be short on highs.