The end of the golden week line beware of malicious market washiYesterday Thursday, the first day of the August cycle, for yesterday, gold also ushered in a wave of V-shaped reversal, or more accurately, should be an M-shaped reversal. Within the day, gold from the opening fell back from 2444 near the bull outbreak 2458 line stop, then gold is also expected to usher in the shock down, but unfortunately, the lowest gold fell a wave of 2430 is to usher in a stop, did not meet my expectations of 2420, this, we did not participate in the layout of the single yesterday. And in the evening, the gold bull burst to break 2460, the highest to near 2462 to meet the stop, and for this wave, it is also scheduled to meet the peak low break 2440, in general, for yesterday, the market volatility is relatively large, but although the intra-day market volatility repeatedly washed short, but in the final analysis there is still no small profit, I think we're getting off to a good start in August. Of course, due to the influence of some mechanisms, I can not be as fully disclosed as in the past, but the operation is given one-on-one, this point, you can compare myself to the single case verification. So for yesterday, there are also many retail friends asked me about the recent trend of the market, in fact, recently, I have been emphasizing the layout of the medium and long term, although it is not clearly given in the real offer, but there are still many old students in the implementation of my program, which also relatively reflects my optimism about the short, this, relative to today's non-farm is also to give us the market reply, For that, you just have to wait for verification. So at the moment, other, Chen Feng I also do not say much, directly on today's market to express my personal views, you can read the following reference to understand. Of course, due to today's non-agricultural, market accidents are larger, all novice students try to stay on the sidelines, do not operate blindly.
-- Gold market review yesterday --
Yesterday Thursday morning, gold opened near 2448, the opening higher blocked near 2450 ushered in a halt to fall, gold is also ushered in a wave of lower near 2444, but unfortunately, bears did not usher in a further break down, but is the bull experienced a strong pull up the break to stabilize above 2450, Asian session, The highest is to rise to 2458 the first line to usher in a stop, and the fall is also relatively strong, short is directly broke 2450-2440, the lowest fell to 2437 the first line to usher in a stop, gold shock slow rise, near the eve of the European trading, the highest gold is also a rebound wave of 2448 the first line to usher in a stop. During the European trading session, gold once again opened the decline, gold is also a shock slow fall again broke 2440, the bear continued to force the lowest fall to around 2430 to usher in a recovery near 2445. The United States session, unemployment benefits announced more gold, gold is therefore ushered in a bull break 2450-2460, the highest to 2462 near to usher in a stop fall, and fall back fierce, bears directly broke down near 2443 to stop recovery, and recovery is only a wave of 2451 after the start of the decline again broke 2440. At midnight, the lowest fell to around 2335 before it was stopped, and then gold rebounded near 2440 to fall back, and bears further fell a wave of 2434 before they were stopped, and then long and short shocks returned to 2440 until the close of the market, and finally gold closed above 2440.
-- The end of the golden week line beware of malicious market washing? Will the non-farm attack help the bears return? -
Yesterday Thursday, for yesterday, the gold day deep 2460-2430 range wide volatility, intraday volatility, this, presumably the market retail investors this is also devastated, in fact, do not blame you, after all, for the current market, itself is in a state of not calm, take yesterday higher, Gold rose to break the day to stabilize at 2450, especially after the Fed's strong doves have this performance, the market is also betting on bulls to break a new high to hit the 2500 mark, the market bullish heat is also further rising, and any pullback process is attracting the influx of market retail investors. But it happened that gold stopped at 2458 and ushered in a crash of 2430, which, in the words of the previous TV: behind all this is the moral bankruptcy, or the distortion of human nature. To describe, after all, in terms of the current market situation, the outbreak of geopolitical risk, interest rate cuts are almost nailed, coupled with the heat of market buying, in fact, bulls have further climbing momentum, but gold has fallen, even if it fell, the market has begun to change that it may be a peak fall, but it is, Gold and stopped at 2430 ushered in a long counter-break 2460, and after breaking 2460, ushered in a rapid reversal of the plunge back below 2440, which repeated several waves of baptism, as far as I know, retail heart is undoubtedly near collapse.
However, the current market itself is like this, especially the gold market in recent years have been crazy speculation, market investors crazy influx, no matter what kind of gold investment, even if it is physical gold, are sought after by the world, including many from other investment tracks to the gold market, for this point, you want to harvest the profits of the market, Well, don't blame the agency for wanting to harvest your leeks. It is the so-called no profit can not be early, especially when you all know that the market has to experience so many unexpected information erupted this week, but also choose to chase the rise and fall, it means that you are already carrying risks in making choices, so in the final analysis, this is no wonder that the market, is completely blinded by the surface of the market, there is a good saying, "for the good are often blessed," There are risks in everything, and you often only know to pursue profits and ignore risks, so don't blame reality for giving you a hard lesson. There is also an idiom, called "do what you can", are adults, all know that there is no things in the world without effort, even if you want to solve the daily food and clothing need to rely on work and hard to fight, let alone this kind of investment can achieve wealth freedom, to say the word is not good, how can you think that you can earn money in the market? Workplace competition needs to rely on ability and resources, not to mention the market, this, but also hope that you can have self-knowledge. Of course, I am not saying that there is absolutely no money to be made, for this point, professional people have to hand over professional things, you do not have the ability, but you can ask competent people, it is not embarrassing? If someone teaches you, the person who teaches you is still very professional, but you are still not stable, then you should reflect on yourself, this, you reflect carefully.
So without further ado, let's get back to business. So for today, the non-farm employment data report will break out, at the same time, the unemployment rate data will be released, for this point, you may just know that this kind of data has a great impact, but the specific impact, you estimate is still unclear, this point, I will focus on today's data to talk about the impact of such information on the market. So for now, the release of such data will certainly have an absolute impact on the Fed's rate cut. For the current information revealed by the Federal Reserve, the current inflation return to 2% standard is no longer the Fed's interest rate reduction target, along with the easing of inflation and the recovery after the global economic virus, the market is also gradually returning to the normal, then in this case, if not for the excessive implementation of economic rescue before the United States, in fact, the US economy has long affected the return to balance. Nor is it safe to say that interest rate cuts have not been on the agenda until now. At present, the Federal Reserve has also made it clear that the implementation of radical interest rate cuts in the context of high inflation mainly requires a slowdown in the U.S. labor market and a rise in the unemployment rate. As for the relationship between the two, you have a good understanding, that is, the labor market is too strong, which means the growth of economic jobs, under what circumstances will this happen? That's only true if the economy is booming, and when the economy is booming, that means a series of increases in wages and so on, and that's coupled with higher inflation, because everybody's working, everybody's making money, and then consumption is going to increase, because everybody's making money, and that creates a chain reaction, and I don't have to go into the details of that as you can imagine, In this case, only fundamental relief can be achieved, and the fundamental problem is labor, which is why the Federal Reserve is currently so focused on non-farm.
So for today's non-farm, how should we judge the data? First of all, for the current US non-agricultural data, the pre-data value was 206,000 new population, while the market expected value is 175,000 new population, from the obvious point of view, the market is that the US labor market has slowed down, and Wednesday ADP employment data showed that the market expected value of 150,000 new employment, the actual employment of only 122,000 new people. From this point of view, the current employment performance of the United States is a little sluggish, but it is worth mentioning that on Tuesday, the employment of the United States showed that the current job growth is higher than the market expectations, which is a bit of conflict with the labor market, if there are not enough jobs, it is not enough, but the current situation of sufficient jobs in the United States, this is also expanding the growth of labor employment in the United States. Although the unemployment benefits data show that the unemployment rate in the United States is relatively high, the unemployment rate is the unemployment rate, some people start and some people leave, which is quite normal, which is not enough to limit the employment of the United States, of course, unless, as previously reported, the United States has plenty of jobs, but it is not hiring, thus limiting job growth, otherwise, The employment expectation of the labor force of 175,000 people is relatively low, that is to say, from the actual situation, it is reasonable to assume that the non-agricultural value is likely to be higher than the market expectation, which reflects the negative gold and positive dollar. But if the United States in order to implement interest rate cuts to restrict the recruitment of enterprises to achieve control, then the release of good gold negative dollar is also possible, so this point, for tonight's non-farm data report, in fact, it is not good to make absolute judgment, of course, I personally expect to increase, this, depending on the actual release of the data. As for the unemployment rate data, this, the impact is not big, after all, from the performance of unemployment benefits data can be predicted, the unemployment rate data is either unchanged in line with market expectations, or higher than market expectations of gold, this is relatively easy to judge, the possibility of explosion is very small, this, you are a little guard against it.
So a final word on the impact on gold after the non-farm data. First of all, if the non-agricultural employment data and unemployment rate data are released in both directions to benefit gold and the dollar, it means that the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is further improved, which is relatively conducive to gold, but it is worth mentioning that at present, there is still a long time to go before the September rate cut, in this case, even if the market wants to stir expectations, It is not so much as to say that there is no brain to push up the gold price in this month-long period, on the contrary, I think that in the case of the positive data triggered by the market retail investors will encounter buying and fleeing, and institutions will implement hedging bets to harvest market buying, so for today, I do not think that gold bulls can break out. On the contrary, if today's non-agricultural employment data and unemployment rate data are both bearish for gold, it is a bit uncomplicated, after all, the Federal Reserve wants to aggressively cut interest rates before inflation returns to the 2% standard, which needs the support of the US economic slowdown, and once the job market is strong and the unemployment rate is reduced, it directly limits the space for radical interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. In addition, considering the unknown impact of the US election, the short-term Federal Reserve may give up the possibility of interest rate cuts, once so, then the market buying and early market bets on interest rate cuts will flee, resulting in long and short trading imbalances, in this case, such a large-scale withdrawal, even institutional hedging is difficult to do, in this case, Gold bears or will usher in an unexpected crash, you know, the one-day unilateral decline of gold over 100 points of the market is not without, this, you need to be careful to guard against it. Of course, I am just exaggerating the narrative, does not mean that the market will be absolute, after all, do not rule out the non-farm employment data negative, and the unemployment rate data to form a hedge situation, but no matter what happens, I do not think that gold can further break new highs, and even if it breaks new highs, I also do not think that gold will further break to stabilize at 2500, after all, I said above, there is still a lot of time from the interest rate cut landing, this opportunity does not rule out the possibility of any surprises, this point, for today, I personally recommend that you around the rebound is better.
So for today's operation, I personally recommend that you go short, of course, yesterday 2460 has a long term short can hold and wait. Then the short position, first of all, because there is a major data outbreak this evening, in this regard, the white market is expected to fluctuate without accident will be relatively calm, unless it is said that the market malicious smash disk washing disk, otherwise, the probability of gold will continue to see in the 2460-2430 area, of course, more accurate, I think 2450 will be blocked, Compared with yesterday's gold flash collapse strength, in this case, 2450 even if it is difficult to get a further climb, this point, for today's short position, I personally think that the white plate in the vicinity of 2450-2453 can not break the layout. Of course, if you really want to encounter the unexpected rise of bulls, 2460-2467-2470 is still the position of the top, and excessive breaking is concerned about 2480-2486 can not break short. However, no matter how the bulls break out, you also need to hang reverse short orders for defense, after all, I said that gold may suffer a crash at any time, this, you remember to pay attention. So for doing more, I do not recommend that you layout, if lucky to be able to lower 2430-2420, you can try to participate in the short term, but note that you can in batches below 2420-2400 hang a good break empty single defense, after all, once the crash, 2400 absolutely can not hold, You can also take a look at 2380-2360 support. Of course, the analysis is only analysis, the specific operational ideas, you also need to adapt to the line. As for the specific operational details, I will also make a solid offer to give, you will strictly follow my requirements to control the position and stop loss basis.
