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The Fed's decision adds complexity.World gold prices moved sideways in the context of the USD still strengthening. Recorded at 9:55 a.m. on December 3, the US Dollar Index measuring the fluctuation of the greenback with 6 major currencies was at 106,484 points (up 0.09%). Gold prices face difficulties due to the strong rise of the USD. This could be reinforced as activity in the US manufacturing sector increases. The CME FedWatch tool shows that market sentiment is quite interesting, with a 74.5% probability for a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming meeting. This probability is up from 52.3% last week, although down from 83% a month ago. At the same time, expectations about maintaining interest rates unchanged have also been adjusted accordingly. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday announced that the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 48.4, up from 46.5 recorded in October. Although the sector remains in contraction territory, the headline number was better than expected, with consensus forecasts only expecting the index to rise to 47.7. TVC:GOLD SELL 2647 2649 💵 ✔️ TP1: 2635 ✔️ TP2: 2625 ✔️ TP3: OPEN 🚫 SL: 2656
TVC:GOLDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
MARKET LAST 2 DAYS Over the last two days, XAU/USD (gold against the US dollar) has experienced a relatively stable trading range. The price hovered around $2,640–$2,642 per ounce. The slight movement reflects cautious sentiment among investors. Factors influencing gold include geopolitical developments and mixed signals about economic conditions globally. Recent news of a temporary ceasefire in the Middle East exerted downward pressure on gold as geopolitical risks eased slightly, though the metal remains sensitive to changes in the U.S. dollar and Federal Reserve policy.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SadarExplore
Tradingdaq | GOLD Market Daily Technical AnalysisThe gold market OANDA:XAUUSD has been oscillating between 2,700 and 2,620, and the support price of the 2,620 area has been retested again. The fluctuating trend of gold in this pilot region can be attributed to the robust performance of XRP, which recently built on correlation as a digital gold in the altcoin market. If the Gold price increases and a bullish candle again closes above 2,620, my first target will be 2,646. On the other hand, If the price decreases and a bearish candle closes below 2,610 and keeps below 2,595, I strongly recommend watching it and waiting for a new analysis for the changing price range.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by iamtradingdon
Analysis of the Downward Trend in Gold Prices This WeekGold prices remained stable above $2,600 in the past week, primarily supported by increasing geopolitical tensions. However, after Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election, gold still faced pressure to limit its price increase, as the U.S. dollar is expected to be supported by Trump's win. Regarding gold's recent recovery, after the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data earlier this week, which met expectations, market anticipation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has risen, driving gold prices higher. Currently, the market is pricing in about a 66% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December, a significant increase from just over 50% a week ago. Geopolitical tensions in Europe, caused by Russia's missile attack on Ukraine, have also provided support for safe-haven assets like gold. The Israeli military announced on Thursday that their air force had struck a facility in southern Lebanon used by Hezbollah to store medium-range missiles, as both sides accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement. On Thursday, Russia launched its second major attack this month on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, causing widespread power outages in the country. Gold OANDA:XAUUSD is generally seen as a safe investment during periods of economic and geopolitical instability. Gold prices have dropped about 3% this month, hitting a two-month low on November 14. This is mainly due to the strengthening U.S. Dollar since Trump's election, and his tariff policies, which are seen as likely to push inflation higher, thus slowing down the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle. Next week, the U.S. will release key economic data, including job openings, ADP employment reports, and non-farm payrolls, which could provide direction on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. Important Economic Data to Watch Next Week Monday: ISM Manufacturing PMI Wednesday: ADP Employment Report, ISM Services PMI, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will participate in a panel discussion at the New York Times DealBook Summit Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims Friday: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report, University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Technical Outlook for XAUUSD (Gold Price) Gold is attempting to recover but remains limited by the 50% Fibonacci level and the EMA21, as pointed out in yesterday's publication. In terms of overall structure, gold still leans towards a bearish outlook, with the main trend indicated by the price channel (a) and resistance from the EMA21. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also not yet surpassed the 50 level. Therefore, in terms of trend and momentum, gold is more likely to face downward pressure rather than rise. As long as gold stays within the price channel (a), it does not meet the technical conditions for a long-term price increase, so any rallies should be viewed as short-term recoveries. In the short term, if gold drops below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, the next target for a decline would be around the $2,600 level. In conclusion, the technical outlook for gold on the daily chart is bearish, with the following key levels to watch: Support: $2,634 – $2,606 – $2,600 Resistance: $2,663 – $2,693 However, traders must note that in the context of geopolitical conflicts, technical structures can be broken very quickly due to sudden, impactful events. Therefore, the risk will be higher in the short term. This concludes the article. Henry wishes for a healthy, joyful, and happy weekend.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Henrybillion
1
The focus of the gold market recentlyThe focus of the gold market recently has been developments in the United States after Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election. In a short period of time, the future cabinet list was announced with all candidates. is considered to have impressive achievements. In addition, Mr. Donald Trump pledged to sharply increase taxes on America's three largest trading partners, including Canada, Mexico and China. Economists say Mr. Trump's overall tariff plans could be the most damaging economic policy, causing inflation and reorganizing global supply chains. According to experts, the short-term gold market is difficult to predict. However, fluctuations in gold prices create buying opportunities for investors. Regarding the medium-term trend, Colin Cieszynski, expert at SIA Wealth Management, believes that the support price of 2,600 USD/ounce of gold will still be maintained and will tend to increase from there. Gold's resistance level is 2,690-2,720 USD/ounce. The gold market is unlikely to have a strong breakthrough in the near future. 🔥 GOLD BUY 2627 - 2625🔥 💵 TP1: 2640 💵 TP2: 2650 💵 TP3: OPEN 🚫 SL: 2618
TVC:GOLDLong
by FalCol_TradingMaster
Gold is in the bullish directionHello Traders In This Chart GOLD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today Gold analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (GOLD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on GOLD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ForexMasters2000
SHOULD 2600 HOLD, WHAT NEXT?In my previous video on gold on Oct 27, we established that we would expect price to find the top at 2790 with a directional vector of 1055 units, an octave expansion (2.016) of the 2019 bull market that led to the Corona crush top. We compared the similarity of the 2020 crush to what was to come the following week. Today, we will examine the possible change in price direction if the market continues to follow the same fractal pattern. Should the 2600 major price level hold, expect a quick price recovery towards 2875. The 2875 resistance top should be the top of the first sub-cycle within cycle 3 (current cycle). This should happen in the same week as Christmas.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by WU_WEI-CAPITAL
GOLD SPIKES AMID Gold spikes amid tensions but can't shake off weekly losses☄️ ➡️Gold gains 0.67% in late session, but geopolitical strife keeps it above $2,600 despite monthly losses. Escalation in Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions underline Gold's safe-haven appeal. Market optimism grows for a 25 bps Fed rate cut in December, bolstering Bullion’s short-term prospects. ➡️Gold's price advanced late during the North American session on Friday, up by 0.67%, yet it remains set to print monthly losses of over 3%. Geopolitical risks continue to drive price action with the non-yielding metal fluctuating at around $2,600. The XAU/USD trades at $2,652 after hitting a daily low of $2,634. ➡️Geopolitical tensions eased in the Middle East after Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire. Nevertheless, both countries accused each other of violating the agreement.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SadarExplore
Gold: Slow Recovery or a Setup for the Next Big Move?Gold has recently completed a three-leg correction to the downside, and we’re now seeing early signs of a move back up. However, the current upward push seems to be struggling with low volume and volatility, making the path higher uncertain. So, where does that leave us? Let’s break it down: Trend Context The broader trend for Gold still appears bullish, with strong long-term fundamentals supporting the precious metal. However, the recent correction highlights that buyers might need more momentum to regain control fully. Volume & Volatility Concerns Gold’s upward movements often rely on strong participation and momentum. The current lack of volume could indicate hesitation among market participants. Until we see a clear increase in trading activity, caution is warranted. Trade Idea Long Bias: While my overall bias remains bullish, I’d recommend patience. Let Gold show signs of strength with increased volume and a break above key resistance levels before entering long positions. Watch for Buy Opportunities: Dips into strong support zones could present attractive entry points for those aligning with the long-term uptrend. Perspective, Not a Trade Recommendation This analysis is meant to provide a perspective on Gold’s price action and potential setups—it is not a trade recommendation. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk management strategies.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by UpstreamTraders
Gold Short Term Analysis December 1stI discussed more of the fundamentals that have impacted the Gold price in my long-term analysis post and how this might play out leading up to Trump's inauguration. In this post I wanted to look at some interesting technical insight that emerged late in Friday's trading session. We saw Gold drop from a high of around 2721 at the start of the week in the NY session as news of the Israel Hezbollah ceasefire filtered through and Scott Bessant as Trump's pick for Treasury Secretary was parsed by the markets. Looking at the Fib retracement levels established following that dip, the recovery in the Gold price has found resistance at each level. I've been playing with LuxAlgo's Smart Money suite of indicators and, in particular, the Fair Value Gap (FVG) and Structure indicators. This has provided some interesting price action insights in the later half of this week. We saw the Asia/London session on Friday send the Gold price up to 2665 with two notable FVGs develop on the 1H chart. The second of these overlapped a Break of Structure (BOS) in the uptrend and the 38% Fib level leaving a liquidity gap in the process. The NY session saw a retracement back to this level as the Fair Value gap was closed. This appears to be a strong indicator of resistance at arounf the 2650 level and a likely sign of a rebound when trading resumes on Monday. With little significant economic news next week, lower yields and US dollar and an increased likelihood of a US rate cut in December it appears that the Gold Price is primed to rise in short-term trade. If the price stays above 2650 into the Asian session this should prove to be a good entry for a long trade with fib levels at 2660, 2677 and 2693 offering useful TPs for anyone looking to play along.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by dgowty
Gold Becomes the Second Largest Central Bank Reserve AssetGold's importance as a reserve asset for central banks is on the rise According to Bank of America, gold has now overtaken the euro to become the second largest reserve asset, To be more precise, B of A should have specified that it is the eastern hemisphere Central Banks that are diversifying out of the U.S. dollar and the euro and buying gold and yuan. Currently, gold accounts for 16% of global bank reserves, while the dollar has dropped to about 58%, down from over 70% in 2002. Poland emerged as the largest buyer of gold in the second quarter of this year (though the specific amount purchased by China's PBoC remains undisclosed). Additionally, Poland is requiring that the gold it acquires be delivered directly to its Central Bank, rather than being stored by London banks. Turkey is another significant gold purchaser, and several African nations have also announced plans to increase Central Bank gold reserves. While it may not happen immediately, there’s potential for gold to surpass the dollar as the top reserve asset, especially if the BRIC nations and other Eastern hemisphere countries go forward with their rumored plans for a gold-backed trade currency. A BRICS Summit will be held in Kazan, Russia, from October 22nd to 24th, where discussions on a new trading currency may take place, though this has not been officially confirmed. On September 5th, Russia announced plans to ramp up its daily gold purchases from $13.5 million to $93 million (1.2 billion rubles to 8.2 billion rubles) for the next month, using surplus revenue from oil and gas. This information was reported by the Russian news agency, Interfax. This move seems to align with the potential development of a BRICS gold-backed trade settlement currency, or even a broader gold-backed currency system. I raise this point because the U.S. Federal Reserve is in a difficult position. It’s facing immense pressure from the market and Wall Street to reduce interest rates, but doing so could trigger a sharp decline in the value of the dollar. The chart referenced above shows a 5-year daily performance of the US dollar index, with the dollar currently testing the 100 level—a key technical support since early 2023. If the Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates, it's highly likely the dollar will fall to 90, a level last seen in mid-2021. This decline would likely push gold prices toward $3,000 and silver toward $50. A weakening dollar presents several challenges. First, it could accelerate the reduction in the dollar's role as a reserve asset for global central banks. Even more concerning for the US, a depreciating dollar coupled with lower interest rates would make it harder to attract foreign investment to finance additional Treasury debt, a challenge that is already becoming evident. Additionally, the Fed is aware that inflation is running higher than what is reported by the CPI. Reducing rates will further drive real interest rates deeper into negative territory. While the official CPI suggests real rates are positive, using more comprehensive measures like the Shadow Stats Alternative CPI, real rates are currently at -3% using the 1990 CPI method and -6% based on the 1980 version. Negative real interest rates fuel price inflation, contributing to its persistence. Cutting rates further would likely intensify this inflationary pressure. This is one reason gold has been reaching new all time highs almost daily since the Fed cut rates earlier this month. Silver, similarly, is on the verge of breaking into the high $33 range. Precious metals markets are anticipating more than just optimistic Fed rhetoric about a strong economy and lower inflation; they are also predicting a potential return to money printing policies
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by moonypto
GOLD INTARDAY CHART UPDATESThe gold market is currently in a consolidation phase, with prices trading within a narrow range. Investors are carefully monitoring key economic indicators, including inflation data, interest rate expectations, and geopolitical developments, to gauge the metal's next trajectory. Amid uncertainty in broader financial markets, gold remains a focus for those seeking a balance between safe-haven assets and potential volatility. Analysts suggest that a breakout could occur soon, depending on upcoming macroeconomic events and shifts in market sentiment.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SadarExplore