Gold: 1535 Coming Up. 1550 Near-Term But Not Quite Yet.We have clearly surpassed the 1515 line that I predicted by my lonesome yesterday, and we will now be off to re-test our high before the correction (1533-1534). Once we initially re-test this value, we will likely quickly re-trace to about 1525-1528 and then a few hours later end up surpassing 1533-1534.
Once we top this value, my next major target will be 1550. Based on the fact that we had a major correction from 1533 to 1484 not too long ago, it is unlikely will we see a large retracement. There is a potential we retrace from 1580 to 1550, however. From that point, I expect a movement to 1600. Once we top 1600, you can expect large moves to the upside.
As I always say: focus on the geopolitical and political headwind domestically and globally. For those who are perpetually bearish on Gold and Silver, the answer is simple; people have no clue how to trade metallics. Those who are perpetually bearish are only as so because they cannot believe Gold and Silver are set for historic runs. Instead, they fail to focus on the reasoning behind their runs and paint metallics as a typical stock.
Remember..Gold and Silver never move linearly. Be patient.
- zSplit
Goldlongterm
Gold: 65% Chance of 1515+ By End of TomorrowIn history, after sharp corrections and oversold Gold (lesser extent for Silver but similar idea), is that we often see a retrace to the value before the corrective value within 24-48 hours.
In this case we could get close to 1520+ tomorrow (minimum 1510-1515), as Gold plummeted on the daily to as low as 21-22 RSI. While I am not a fan of RSI in general as it is grossly oversimplified, it is useful for vast differences on the overall trendline.
For those who are shorting, I would caution you to END your shorts, as Gold has failed to break 1484 which is now proven as a new low (but a drastically higher low compared to the last corrective low at 1402). As I am writing this, we have now re-tested 1495+ and the trend is now bull especially if we hold 1500.
Over the next two weeks look for some geopolitical/political headwind to take Gold to 1550-1560 then eventually off to 1600 over the next 2 1/2 - 3 1/2 weeks AFTER we hit 1550.
One must keep in mind three additional facts:
1) Given the strong gains in the US indices, the treasuries failed to make significant ground.
2) Given the halt (temporarily, at-least) in US tariffs on China, Asian gains are very muted. Normally with news like this, the Hang should gain 2% or more.
3) Watch for the possibility of China to not discuss trade in September with the USA, resulting in tariffs being threatened once again and all US indices giving back recent gains.
One must also keep in mind (very important):
A) Once the 2YR goes above the 10YR treasury in the US there will be a massive algo sell-off and that will likely be the driving force to take Gold over 1600 and Silver over 18 whenever that happens - watch the timing!
- zSplit
Gold Monthly Meeting ResistanceHere is a monthly gold chart squared to ATH. As illustrated, the gold price soared to the 15º angle line coming down from the ATH, and this is expected to attract some supply around this level. There's an increased risk of downside for long position holders, and significant reduction of short risk exposure might ensue if there's a sign of demand failure here. Looking for short entries makes sense at this point.
Final Stand Before Bull Market!!So far so good, as I've mentioned in my previous chart of gold, we probably won't see 12xx prices ever again.
By breaking the remaining resistance line gold will officially enter bull market which will stay for foreseeable future.
Everything is ready for it, technical and fundamental wise.
back in old days of bitcoin, we were saying will it catch gold or at least goes for parity?!
now for gold, will it catch bitcoin?! or goes for parity?!!! :D
Gold All Set to "Tip-Toe" to 1700+ by Q2 2020.Many people over the past several months have been thrilled about Gold finally rising from the dead of nearly six years of doing virtually nothing - and rightfully so! Prices have been able to maintain above the psychological value of 1400 despite ATHs across many world indices. Even after at times, global tensions have waned, and monetary policy has prolonged easing, Gold has remained mostly stable - and above 1400.
Contrary to popular belief and compared to many stocks and equities trading on the traditional indices, focusing on quantitative analysis and mathematical patterns are not the only important factors for Gold (and other metallic earth materials); geopolitical, political and global monetary policy have tremendous impact and relevant importance.
Although I can list out a large ingredient list of various reasons why Gold will likely soar late 2019 through 2020 and likely into 2021, one of the most prominent reasons will ultimately be as a result of world-wide currency devaluation to overextend and squeeze markets higher, and monetary policy easing. In future posts, I will go into deeper detail why monetary policy patterns matter tremendously for Gold and other metallics, as well as, other reasons for why Gold will rise.
Key Retracements:
1) Monday to Midday Wednesday: Gold likely in the 1414-1428 range with possibly bottoming out at the most recent bottom of around 1412; ticking slightly lower to 1408-1410 is a risk but a very low one.
2) Near-term (main patterns to expect from current date and onwards):
~1418 (current) --> 1408-1412 (possible for early-mid Monday) --> 1414-1428 from late Monday through mid Wednesday, then to:
~1450 --> ~1428 then,
~1428 --> ~1495 then,
~1495 --> ~1441 then,
~1441 --> ~1500+ with significant up-trends once 1500 is reached.
**Note: Metallics NEVER move linearly and there will be a handful of stronger retracements until 1500 is reached.
While my view is assuming a minimum 25bps monetary easing by the Federal Reserve this coming week, even if they come to the conclusion of holding steady (which is extremely extremely extremely low at this point), this would only prolong Golds bull run temporarily - not permanently halt it as global easing is inevitable from Q4 2019 through 2020.
Should the Federal Reserve deeply surprise everyone and hold steady despite their most recent discussions and testimony, my posts timeline can be extended into the future by 3-4 months but remain intact.
- zSplit
Long term vision on GOLDOn the longer timeframes (1 month) gold broke the horizontal resistance based on the top of summer 2014, July 2016 and around February 2018. For now, it looks the month candle is still trading above the resistance line but, we have one trading week left before the candle closes. So to be safe, wait for one more week, and if price is above resistance line, it's a good opportunity to open a long trade. The more aggressive traders can start building up the positions now, offcourse withe stops below the resistance line. You want to keep the risk low, because it's not been said yet that it's a real break out. Options for fake break out, or stop loss hunt, are still open.
This technical long vision also perfectly comes together with the fundamentals:
" President Donald Trump said the U.S. will impose major new sanctions on Iran Monday, days after he abruptly called off a plan for airstrikes against the Islamic Republic based on the concept of proportionality after Iran shot down a U.S. Navy drone. " - source Bloomberg
" Gold (XAU/USD-spot) closed around 1399.43 in the U.S. session Friday, soared almost +0.63% on safe-haven appeal amid U.S. allegation of oil tankers attack by Iran coupled with lingering suspense about U.S.-China trade war. A full-fledged trade/cold war is positive for tariff/imported inflation and also positive for the precious metal as an “inflation hedge”. Gold is also boosted by a deluge of soft U.S. economic data and hopes for two Fed rate cuts in 2019 and one in 2020 amid an intensifying Trump trade war and the probability of an U.S./global economic slowdown. " - by Asis Ghosh on iforex
XAUUSD, Gold is in correction.Price has broken the trend line and we saw a huge dump yesterday. Also, price pivoted on 1323 area ,which was .618 of the first corrective move.
Gold is forming a corrective triangle formation and preparing for the big move. Best price area to enter would be 1384 and 1278 for long.
GOLD REVERSAL TRADE BUYING LONG TERM FOR WEEKSAS we was on gold short now market did hit break even stop. NOW Price shows that it wants to go up. In my opinion this is a long run trade so thats why so large exits.
But if you are intraday trader so consider that it will be bulish for many weeks upfront. And only buying gold is best advice.
Good luck!
Gold flying to the moonWe all thought gold was gonna go down because of the daily pullback but after today we have confirmation that we could see gold go for 1350 area already this week.
On the H4 timeframe the price went down around previous low (not exactly), made a new higher low instead, didn't break the trendline and as a gift we received hidden divergence which means trend continuation.
We want the price to close above the small H4 resistance to get the last confirmation before we open any positions.
If we do see a breakout out of the weekly upper channel we could see the other levels to be potential targets.
XAU/USD at a very importat point.On the monthly chart XAU/USD is about to break throuh the trendline which is more than 1 year old. It has bounced off the 50% retracement mark. For very long term purposes the trend is still up.
Although, before taking any long postions on Gold. I would wait for a potential whipsaw/manipulation of the price once again to take the gold bugs out of the game. A high probability exists of a whipsaw back to the 61.8 retracement level is there. At that level manipulation of price is not possible as it gets below the extraction cost price of gold today.
For long term buyers of gold. I suggest you wait for a full confirmation of the break of trendline and wait for atleast one period (on monthly) before entering into long postions.
If whipsaw occurs I would enter short positions upto 61.8 retracement levels which is the next major support for gold. At that level its a very very lucrative buy for long term purposes.
Are we having another seasonal bounce up soon??As you may know or not, Gold use to have a seasonal drop Nov-Dec then to bounce up Jan-Feb.
Look at the chart and you will see how many times that happened, i am not saying it will happen now again, but there is a big possibility for that. I personally think it may have another drop before we can see a bounce up. In both case i am only looking for buy setups on the daily and 4H.