3.12 Technical analysis of gold short-term operationGold Short-Term Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, the daily chart of gold shows that the price of gold remains below the currently flat 20-day simple moving average (SMA), which provides dynamic resistance near $2,910.00/oz. The longer-term moving averages continue to move upwards at levels well below the current gold price, suggesting that bulls remain in control in the long term. Meanwhile, technical indicators have turned down near their mid-lines, suggesting that gold prices may extend their corrective decline before finding new buying interest.
In the near term, the price of gold is at risk of continuing its decline as seen on the 4-hour chart. The 20-period SMA and the 100-period SMA provide resistance in the $2,910/oz area, while the bullish 200-period SMA hovers around $2,867/oz, providing support. Finally, technical indicators remain in negative territory, albeit with mixed strength. However, a break below the intraday low of $2,881.80/oz on March 4 could see the price of gold fall further.
Important support and resistance levels:
Support level: $2881.80/oz; $2867.10/oz; $2854.95/oz
Resistance level: $2910.00/oz; $2927.90/oz; $2941.40/oz
Goldlongterm
3.11 Gold’s short-term signal resistance levels are mixedSpot gold rebounded slightly in the Asian session on Tuesday (March 11) and is currently trading around $2,896.52 per ounce.
The technical signals of spot gold are a bit mixed. It has successfully stabilized near the support level of $2,879 per ounce and started to rebound. The focus on the resistance near 2,915 is on the top.
Between March 4 and March 7, a temporary top was formed in the range of $2,894 to $2,927. This indicates that the target is $2,861. However, after a brief confirmation, the top became invalid as the price of gold climbed above the neckline of the pattern at $2,894.
The rebound increases the possibility of resuming the upward trend from $2,832. A breakthrough of $2,909 will be seen as a strong signal to resume the upward trend.
Before the price of gold climbs above $2,915, the price of gold may still be biased to the downside, as the current rebound may just be a correction to the top, and the correction is a bit excessive.
On the daily chart, gold is also neutral in the range of $2891 to $2934, similar to the situation on the hourly chart.
When gold moves out of the range, the signal will become clearer. The wave pattern suggests that the market may experience a small decline first, followed by a strong rebound.
3.11 Analysis of gold short-term operation suggestionsOn Monday (March 10), the latest spot gold (XAU/USD) was quoted at $2915.01, up 0.10% on the day. In the Asian session, the gold price remained in a narrow range around $2914, but since 15:25 Beijing time, gold has fluctuated downward from $2915.39, reaching a low of $2896.73.
Fundamental analysis: The Fed's interest rate meeting is approaching, and the market is cautiously watching
At present, the gold market has entered a sideways consolidation phase, and investors are evaluating multiple factors, including the Fed's upcoming policy meeting on March 19 and the latest economic statements of US President Trump. In an interview with the media, Trump said that the US economy is in a "transition" stage, and the market has generally believed that the US economy is at risk of recession.
Market sentiment and capital flows: Short-term funds are cautious, and gold is still supported
Technical analysis: Long and short divergences are increasing, key support and resistance levels
From a technical perspective, the gold price is currently consolidating around $2890. The key resistance above is the intraday high of $2918.19, followed by the intraday R1 resistance of $2927 and the R2 resistance of $2945. If the gold price breaks through $2945, the market may challenge the historical high of $2956 set on February 24.
In terms of support below, the $2900 integer mark and the S1 support level of $2893 constitute double support. If it falls below this area, the gold price may test the S2 support level of $2878. Technical analysts believe that if Trump does not release additional tariff policy signals in the near future, market sentiment may gradually stabilize, and gold may pull back to the support range in the short term to accumulate power for subsequent gains.
Conclusion: Short-term consolidation, pay attention to the dynamics of the Federal Reserve
Overall, gold is currently maintaining a range of fluctuations, and the short-term trend is subject to the expectations of the Federal Reserve meeting and the uncertainty of the US economic outlook. Investors need to focus on the interest rate meeting on March 19 and the impact of the remarks of Federal Reserve officials on market sentiment in the coming weeks. In the current context, the market still tends to look for buying opportunities in pullbacks. If the gold price remains above $2,893, the bulls will still have a certain advantage.
3.11When will gold break out of its range?Will gold continue to adjust downward after the wash, or will it break upward after this period of consolidation?
1: Trump announced on the 7th that Russia launched a fierce attack on Ukraine. In order to encourage the two sides to sit down at the negotiating table for friendly negotiations, sanctions and tariffs will be imposed on Russia, including banks, until both sides are willing to stop the exchange of fire. This has increased the uncertainty of geopolitical risks, which will be a boost for gold.
2: Fed Chairman Powell reiterated at a press conference on Friday that the current US economic performance is relatively ideal, and the Fed does not intend to rush to cut interest rates next. As we all know, interest rate cuts will stimulate gold to rise, and slowing down the pace of interest rate cuts will form resistance for gold.
Since gold entered the adjustment on February 11, the repeated high-level roller coaster shock wash has been brewing for a month, and it is time to end. The gold price has repeatedly fluctuated around $2,900, and even the non-agricultural data failed to break the support of $2,890 and the pressure of $2,930.
As for gold, the focus is still on $2890 as the support point. As long as it is not lost here, it is still mainly based on reaching the bottom of the box. For players of physical gold, it is not recommended to repeatedly get on and off the gold when the funds are idle. It seems smart but will eventually miss it perfectly.
Trading strategy:
You can consider getting on the train within the range of 2900-2895, and defend below 2880 US dollars. The focus above is on the breakthrough of the 2920-30 pressure area.
3.10 Gold short-term operation analysis and suggestionsIn early Asian trading on Monday (March 10), spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading around $2,912.60 per ounce. Gold prices have fluctuated at high levels for three consecutive trading days, but they still rose 1.65% on a weekly basis, helped by safe-haven inflows and the U.S. employment report showing that job growth in February was lower than expected, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates this year. In addition, the volatile tariff policy of U.S. President Trump has also increased uncertainty.
Gold continues to fluctuate in a range, and the overall trend is in an upward trend. After the adjustment, the price of gold will continue to rise. The idea is to continue to step back on low-multiple operations. Pay attention to the 2898 support during the day. Relying on this position, short-term long, stop loss 2889, stop profit at 2922/2932. Breaking the 2932 suppression is expected to further rush to a new high.
In addition, if it falls below the support near 2889, coupled with the recent strength of the U.S. dollar, gold may fall further, so if it falls below the support, don't consider continuing to go long, pay attention to the risk.
March 10th gold short-term trading: long near 2898, stop loss 2889, take profit 2922/2932
Backup ideas: (fall below 2889, rebound to 2896 and continue to short, stop loss 2904, take profit 2880-2876)
3.7 Gold short-term non-agricultural comingFundamental analysis
Tariff policy shows signs of easing, but risks have not been completely eliminated
Recently, the United States has postponed the implementation of the auto import tariff plan for Canada and Mexico, which has eased the economic and trade tensions in North America to a certain extent. However, this postponement is not indefinite. More importantly, import tariffs in other countries and regions are still in the process of being prepared or implemented, and potential uncertainties may still erupt again at any time. Driven by a series of previous tariff policy news, gold prices have repeatedly received safe-haven support. Although there is a slight correction at present, it is still near the historical relative high.
Technical analyst interpretation:
Currently, gold is fluctuating around $2,900/ounce. Overall, bullish confidence remains solid, but it also faces a large technical barrier in the short term. The following are several key observation points:
Key levels and support and resistance
Intraday key level: $2,914/ounce
If this position can be effectively broken through, it may attract more bulls to enter the market and pave the way for further impact of $2,934/ounce (R1).
R1 resistance during the day: $2934/oz
If the gold price breaks through this level, the next target will be $2950/oz (R2), and approach the historical high of $2956/oz on February 24. Once it approaches this high again, the market may experience a new round of violent fluctuations.
S1 support below: $2899/oz, coinciding with the $2900/oz mark
This area is a short-term long-short watershed. Once the shorts successfully suppress the price below $2900/oz, the bullish sentiment is vulnerable, and the risk of a short-term correction will also increase significantly. If it effectively falls below $2899/oz, the gold price may continue to fall to $2879/oz (S2), which is another possible long defensive position.
High consolidation and correction risk
From the overall market situation, the gold price has been strong since the end of last year, constantly refreshing the interim highs. However, as the market digests the Fed's expectations of rate cuts, bullish sentiment may be blunted at the current position. In addition, if the ECB or the United States' policy expectations change again, causing funds to reassess the prospects of global economic recovery and monetary policy, gold may also face certain pressure to fall from highs.
Pay attention to the operation of gold prices in the range of $2,900-2,934/ounce: If the bulls continue to fail to break upward, it is advisable to be alert to the potential correction caused by high-level profit-taking; and once the positive news is released, the possibility of gold prices quickly breaking through $2,934/ounce and heading straight to the $2,950-2,956/ounce area cannot be ignored.
3.6 Technical Analysis of Short-term Gold OperationsThe US ADP employment data for February fell sharply. The market expected 140,000, but only 70,000 were released last night, which was cut in half. This data is not surprising. Since Musk established the efficiency department at the oval table on January 20, a large number of government employees have been reduced, and the reduction in employment is reasonable.
However, the consensus is that the number of employed people will decrease, which is good for gold, and washing the market has become a routine operation. After the data was released, gold not only did not rise, but fell rapidly, all the way to $2,894, and it seemed that it was about to fall by a waterfall. At that time, I said internally that we should be careful of the double kill of longs and shorts, but it was pulled back to above $2,920 in the late trading.
In 1 hour, the US market quickly returned to the top and bottom conversion of $2,894 last night. After this retracement, it was pulled up again, indicating that the market bulls are still dominant, but the current market is still dominated by fluctuations, not a unilateral rise, so try to avoid chasing more and wait for the decline before intervening.
Today, the dividing point is still 2895-2900. We will continue to go long after the pullback. The upper target is 2920-2935 US dollars. The US dollar has begun to weaken. Gold is just in the process of brewing. The single negative on the weekly line does not form a stage top.
3.5 Technical Analysis of Short-term Gold OperationsThe non-farm payrolls (NFP) and consumer price index (CPI) data to be released this week will be the focus of market attention. If the data is strong, especially the inflation data is higher than expected, the market may reduce the bet on the Fed to cut interest rates. The market currently expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 75 basis points this year, an increase from the 44 basis points expected last week.
Gold Technical Analysis - Daily Chart
From the daily chart, gold received support near $2,832 last Friday and rebounded to $2,900 driven by tariff concerns. However, from this time frame, market information is limited, so it is necessary to further zoom in on the analysis period to get more details.
3.5 Technical analysis of gold short-term operation Key point 25Looking back at the overall market, gold has rebounded for two consecutive days, but from the perspective of the morphological structure, it is not yet in a state of reversal. Beware of the risk of a fall after a surge.
From the perspective of the one-hour and four-hour structures, the overall trend is still in a downward trend. Although there has been a strong rebound in the past two days, the rebound is not a reversal.
Today, we need to focus on $2925, which is 680 yuan, as the dividing line between today's long and short turns. Below this area, given the rebound in the past two days, I think we can try to go south to see a fall. Refer to the 2895 or 2880 area below.
However, if the box continues to oscillate today and closes above $680 or $2925, it will bottom out and turn to long! At that time, we will adjust our thinking and look north to see new highs!
Note that the short-term market is approaching a turning point, and 2925 needs to be paid attention to.
3.5 Technical analysis of short-term gold operationsOn the first trading day of March, the US dollar index fell sharply. Data released by ISM showed that the US ISM manufacturing index in February was 50.3, lower than the expected 50.8, and the previous value in January was 50.9. 50 is the dividing line between prosperity and recession. Although the ISM manufacturing PMI continued to expand in January, the amplitude was small and tended to stagnate. Both new orders and employment shrank. At the same time, the material purchasing price index soared to the highest level since June 2022. After the data was released, the US dollar index fell further.
Gold rebounded sharply, challenging the 10-day moving average. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages still showed a dead cross. The daily RSI rebounded and reached the key pressure zone of 2900-10 in 4 hours. The short-term trend turned to bullish, but it was still not a strong bull market. You can wait for the opportunity to stabilize and go long near 2875.
3.4 Short-term operation of gold within the dayIn February, gold closed with a long upper shadow line, the MACD indicator golden cross high volume, and the dynamic indicator SRO hooked up into the overbought area, indicating that the monthly line is still bullish. At the current monthly level, we focus on the support of the MA5 moving average and the strong support of the MA10 moving average, which correspond to 2763 and 2647 respectively.
The weekly line fell last week, including the previous day's positive column to form a negative cover, so the gold price will continue to weaken this week. The 2936-42 above the weekly line is a short-term top suppression, and the low point of last week is 2832. If it falls this week, it will definitely break the low point of last week. The current support below is the MA10 moving average near 2802, and the middle track support is 2732.
The daily line is more interesting: after the bottoming out and rebounding last Friday, the big positive pulled up yesterday; if the price continues to rebound and repair, then today's low will not exceed yesterday's low of 2857-58, and the current moving average MA60 supports near 2861. The upper pressure is at the middle track 2902-2910. The daily indicator macd is dead cross at high level and runs with large volume, and the smart indicator sto is repaired upward, which represents the daily level of shock.
The current macd is running at a low golden cross with large volume in 4 hours, and the smart indicator sto is entering the overbought area upward, which means that the current 4-hour shock is strong. At present, the upper pressure of the 4-hour is also at the intersection of the moving average MA60 and the upper track at 2913-14.
The current macd at high golden cross of the hourly line shrinks and sticks, and the smart indicator sto is repaired downward, which means that the hourly line is currently oscillating and tends to fall back. The current support is 2879, followed by 2870-58.
In summary:
During the day, we will mainly focus on yesterday's low point of 2857-58. If it is not broken, we can go long near 2867-68. In the short term, we can go long in the 2883-80 range in the Asian session, and the target is 2900-2910. The first short position is also in the 2909-20 range.
Strategy:
Go long in the 2880-83 range in the Asian session, defend 2875, and target 2890-2900-2910
Go long near 2866-68 during the day, defend 2858, and the target remains unchanged
Go short near 2909-12 during the day, defend 2918, and target 2900-2892
3.4 Gold’s Dayang Extended ReboundYesterday, the gold market opened high at 2860.6 in the morning, then the market rose to 2876.9 and then fell back. After filling the gap to 2858.3, the market was supported and rose strongly. The daily line reached 2895.3 and then the market was consolidated. The daily line finally closed at 2893.3 and the market closed with a big positive line with a slight shadow. After this pattern ended, the daily line broke the short-term pressure and there is still a rebound demand today.
Short-term operation:
Buy: 75 Stop loss: 65 Target: 95 05 15
Gold weekly chart with buy and sell levelsGold finally delivering its first red candles last week , what will the next week give us ?.
Looking at the weekly the bulls appear to be exhausted so we saw a decline in the last 4 days of the week.
2955.5 will be a level to watch in the coming week .
For the coming week we can buy at 2864 which you can see conforms to the paralell channel drawn 2871,2884 will be first and second resistance if broken expect 2895 , 2920 as next heavy resistance.
on the downside (I think this is more likely ) we can sell at 2848 , expecting 2840 then 2832 as next resistance.
It is worth noteing that all the heavy resistance is on the buy side with minimual resistance on the sell side.
Please use proper risk management and positioning size.
take profits along the way.
This is my own view on the next weekly gold trend and is not to be considered finincial advice.
GOLD MONTLHY CHART LONG ROUTE MAP ANALYSISDear Traders,
Attached is the Monthly Chart Route Map for GOLD. Since October 2023, we have been consistently analyzing and trading GOLD with 100% accuracy in our targets. The Golden Circle Area marked on the chart clearly reflects our precise analysis and targets achieved.
The EMA5 has crossed the ENTRY LEVEL, leading to the successful achievement of TP1, followed by TP2. We are now anticipating TP3.
What’s Next for GOLD?
The FVG has provided strong support at 2535 level that caused the price to push upward to 2785 and also the monthly chart confirms that EMA5 has crossed and locked above TP2 (2603), signaling the next bullish target at TP3 (2920). While external market factors may slow momentum or cause temporary reversals, we are confident that TP3 will be reached in due time.
Once TP3 is hit, a significant correction to lower weighted levels is expected before the bullish trend resumes, as indicated on the chart.
Key Levels:
Support: 1969
TP1: 2286 ✅ (Achieved)
TP2: 2603 ✅ (Achieved)
TP3: 2920 ⏳ (Pending)
Short-Term Strategy:
We will utilize smaller timeframes (1H and 4H charts) to buy dips at key weighted levels, targeting clean 30-40 pips per trade. This strategy is most effective in ranging markets, avoiding extended holds that may be exposed to high volatility.
Long-Term Bias:
Our outlook remains bullish, viewing market drops as buying opportunities. We will continue to leverage predefined levels and setups for optimized entries in smaller timeframes.
🔺 THE QUANTUM TRADING MASTERY 🔺
GOLD SETUP IS READY TO FLY MUST READ THE CAPTION WRITTEN BELOW This chart represents a technical analysis setup for gold (XAU/USD) on a 2-hour timeframe. Here's a detailed breakdown of the chart:
1. Key Price Levels:
Current Price: The price is around 2,739.88, as indicated by the blue marker.
Stop Loss (Red Line): Placed at 2,720.00, this is the risk level where the trade will exit to minimize losses if the price falls below this level.
Take Entry (Green Line): Suggested entry point for a buy trade, placed at around 2,730.00.
Target 1 and Target 2 (Green Lines): Indicate the profit-taking levels:
Target 1: Approximately 2,750.00.
Target 2: Approximately 2,760.00.
2. Trade Setup:
The yellow arrow shows a potential bullish movement in price, starting from the entry point and reaching the defined targets.
Risk Management: The stop-loss level is placed below the entry level to limit potential losses.
Profit Zones: Two profit levels (Target 1 and Target 2) are defined for traders to lock in gains at different stages of the upward trend.
3. Market Sentiment:
The chart suggests a bullish outlook, indicating that the trader expects gold's price to increase after breaking above the entry level.
The upward momentum is emphasized by the zigzag price movement, representing potential market pullbacks and continuations.
This setup is aimed at traders who anticipate a breakout or continuation of gold's bullish trend, focusing on calculated entry and exit points to maximize profits while managing risk effectively.
First Week of 2025 - Shape Market Sentiment for the Rest of 2025The first week of trading is always significant, as many investors begin initiating and rebalancing their positions for the year.
Last week, we discussed the bond markets, which may impact yields and influence the direction of interest rates and inflation. This could lead to increased volatility in the stock market, prompting investors to focus on gold.
1 Ounce Gold Futures
Ticker: 1OZ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 per troy ounce = $0.25
Micro Gold Futures & Options
Ticker: MCG
Minimum fluctuation:
0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
1.15 Technical analysis of short-term gold operationsGold's 1-hour moving average has also begun to turn downward. If the gold's 1-hour moving average eventually forms a dead cross downward, then the space for gold's short position to fall will be further opened. Gold's US PPI data is bullish, but it is still under pressure and will fall directly to 2675. Gold's US rebound to 2675 will continue to be short.
Gold is now under pressure at a high level, and the bulls still have no further momentum to rise. So the rebound will continue to be short, and gold shorts may exert force at any time.
Short-term operation ideas:
Gold 2672 short, stop loss 2682, target 2655-2650;
Gold Consolidates Above Strong Base: Potential Rally AheadGold is currently retesting the breakout of a symmetrical pattern, with the lower trendline providing solid and reliable support.
Once the price breaks above the upper marked zone, we could see a potential surge in gold prices.
The green support zone is acting as a strong foundation for this upward momentum.
DYOR, NFA
THE KOG REPORT - WeeklyQuick update on our weekly chart:
As you can see we're above the red box on support which now needs to be broken downside for us to go lower. Most of our traders will recognise a pattern in this chart so we'll say we would like to see an attempt at the upper red box before a potential RIP.
Key level here 2703-16 resistance. 2665-55 support
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As always, trade safe.
KOG
Gold Breaks Out: Bullish Momentum Building Above Key PatternGold is breaking out aggressively above the symmetrical triangle pattern, signaling a potential bullish continuation. If the price retests the breakout level and holds, we could see a significant move higher.
The 100 EMA is also providing strong dynamic support, further reinforcing the bullish sentiment. A sustained breakout above this range could target new highs in the coming sessions.
THE KOG REPORT - WeeklyWhen we first started publishing on Tradingview we used to share the long term charts along with the weekly plan but then decided to stop. We've had quite a few requests for our long term projections so we'll try and keep up to date with publishing them.
Weekly Chart:
On this chart we can see a clean reversal formed with the resistance level now at the 2655-65 region just like the monthly chart. If the level holds us down, we have support below 2555-60 on what could be the breaker swing! This entails caution, if we attack that region and break the kings swing takes us again into that 2480 region before then bouncing. This could be the shake up the market has been waiting for.
Red boxes on this chart represent the key levels for the swing trades and longer captures. Together with the strategy and the indicators, they'll help keep us in the right direction.
Key level resistance 2660-70 break for 2720
Key level support 2560, break for 2480
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG