XAUUSD: Today's downtrend remains unchanged and continues to breThe 1-hour chart is subject to the suppression of the moving average system, and still maintains a good downward trend. In terms of operation, it is recommended to be bearish rather than chasing short, wait patiently for the rebound to short the band, short-term rebound 1924~1920, stop loss 1930, target 1908-1892.
Gold fell 1% yesterday to hit a three-month low after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before Congress. The prospect of more rate hikes from the U.S. central bank overwhelmed any support for gold from signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market. To be honest, the recent market is really difficult to operate. Last night’s review found that the U.S. dollar index and gold basically fell at the same time this month. This situation has happened before, but it cannot last for a long time. It depends on when the stalemate is broken.
From a technical point of view, gold continued to fall the next day, and the daily line closed with a big negative line with upper and lower shadow lines, and the overall trend is still in the downward trend since the new high.
Goldlongterm
XAUUSD:Short-term bearish within the day, and then rise againGold suddenly rose rapidly in the short term. The price of gold has now risen to around 1956. In the Asian market, the price of gold once touched a level around 1945. The price of gold has successfully touched our first target price of 1945. Waiting for the price of gold to fall below this level will confirm that the price of gold will continue The corrective bearish trend and fell to the next target 1913.
I continue to predict that the price of gold will be in a bearish trend for some time to come. From the 4-hour chart, the price of gold is below the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA), which supports the bearish expectation.
It should be noted that if the gold price breaks through 1956 and continues its upward trend, this may push the gold price's intraday outlook to turn bullish, and rise to the key resistance 1977, and then try to fall again.
The timing of long-short operations around 1956 needs to continue to pay attention to the follow-up trend
Intraday real-time trading signal follow-up update...
XAUUSD: sell high and buy low, look at 1951 in the dayOn the hourly chart, the price of gold may fall below $1,951 in the short term, and is expected to further drop to $1,941, which are the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the upward range from $1,925 to $1,968 stalls.
The international gold price fell slightly under the pressure of the rebound of the US dollar, and the short-term view is 1941 US dollars. However, due to the fact that the US market is closed, the market transaction is light. Investors continued to assess the future path of interest rates following hawkish comments from Fed policymakers.
Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index, said: "Gold has spent most of June between $1,935 and $1,970, and with no obvious catalysts emerging, traders are more willing to trade within the range, not entirely. Hope to break out of the range."
Gold prices edged lower last week as traders ramped up bets on a July rate hike after a hawkish Federal Reserve paused after 10 straight rate hikes. Traders are currently pricing in about a 72 percent chance of a rate hike in July, according to the CME's "FedWatch" tool.
Christopher Wong, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank, said: "Historically, gold prices have probably outperformed at the end of a Fed tightening cycle. While the opportunity cost of holding gold has risen, we see lower real yields at some stage. It shouldn't be too long, and that could support gold prices."
Investors are now waiting for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's testimony before Congress on Wednesday (June 21) and Thursday (June 22) for further clues about the future path of the Fed's interest rate.
The price of gold stands at 1962, and the market outlook is expeLooking at the daily line, if the price of gold can stand above 1962, the market outlook is expected to further touch 1985, which are the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2082-1925 downward range. However, given that 1962 is in the recent intensive transaction area, it is more likely to fluctuate on this line.
Gold rose to 1964 in the Asian session; the US dollar index rose to 102.186.
The price of gold fell to 1924.73 yesterday, its lowest level since March 17. However, as the newly released U.S. economic data provided a new basis for the Federal Reserve to suspend interest rate hikes, the price of gold completely recovered the lost ground during the day and rose by more than 0.8% to close at 1957.81.
Data released on Thursday showed that as of the week of June 10, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits totaled 262K. value. U.S. industrial production unexpectedly fell 0.2% in May, following a 0.5% rise in April. The market had expected a rise of 0.1%.
"Gold is struggling because the Fed is still hawkish on inflation and interest rates," said Edward Meyer, metals analyst at Marex. Over the next two weeks, gold is likely to trade in the $1,931-$2,000 range, with strong resistance at the upper end, Meir added.
The Fed's updated forecast this week pointed to the resilience of the U.S. economy and suggested that borrowing costs may need to rise another 50 basis points by the end of the year. Traders are currently pricing in a 72% chance of a 25 basis point hike in July.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy despite stronger-than-expected inflation as it focused on supporting a fragile economic recovery amid a sharp slowdown in global growth. Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered a speech after the meeting, noting that more time is needed to achieve the 2 percent inflation target.
CPI inflation data forward-looking, personal forward-looking guiTomorrow is the release of cpi data. Judging from the volatile and sideways trend, tomorrow's market should be very big. Here I believe that many investors still want to know, I am more inclined to cpi is falling or rising.
From the perspective of data expectations, the previous value is 4.9%, and the expected value is 4.1%. The gap in the middle is still relatively large. Maybe everyone thinks that the rate of inflation will not fall so quickly. With a high probability, most people think that the announced value will be greater than expected, but less than the previous value. But I personally prefer less than expected. In this way, the impact on the data is data bullish for gold, but the trend of gold prices will show a performance of rising first and then falling.
Because when inflation falls, the first wave of bets on market funds must be bullish on gold as shown by the data. But at the same time, when inflation falls, it means that real interest rates in the United States are rising. Correspondingly, when the first wave of market funds broke out, the market sentiment returned to rationality, which brought about a new stage of selling of gold. Therefore, it is more inclined to pull up strongly in the short term, and it is expected to reach around 1980. Then began a new round of shocks and fell, and entered the trend of 1930-1980 range shocks. The above is my expectation for the high probability trend of the future market. Of course, it is only a personal forward-looking guideline. In the end, market data shall prevail.
Gold trading recommendations today
The current price of gold in 1964 is directly empty!
At present, the gold daily cycle and the one-hour cycle are bearish, and the key watershed position for long and short in the day is still the 1970 line. Gold continues to fluctuate and adjust at high levels. After the current price has dropped below 1963.5, the short-term top pattern below 1970 has been formed. It can be short-term in operation, and it is bearish to hold at 1940.
Trading straregy:
gold: sell@1964 tp1:1954 tp2:1944
Next, there will be a lot of trading opportunities for gold, and I will provide you with more signals, don't miss the opportunity to make money!
Gold trading recommendations today
The current key pressure position is the 1957 position, which is the market pressure position and the moving average suppression position! Today's rebound relies on this pressure to continue shorting. The support below pays attention to whether the 1930 line breaks. If it breaks, the market will start a new round of decline!
Trading straregy:
gold: sell@1955 tp1:1940 tp2:1930
Next, there will be a lot of trading opportunities for gold, and I will provide you with more signals, don't miss the opportunity to make money!
GOLD ( XAUUSD ) Long Term Trading IdeaHello Traders
In This Chart GOLD HOURLY Forex Forecast By World of Forex
today nzdcad analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (GOLD market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on GOLD Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This Video is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts.
Gold trading recommendations today
The gold Yinxian fell below the 1-hour mid-track, which is the best signal for the end of the bulls, which is to be shorted, but this cannot determine the low point, so we can only use other methods to continue to hold short orders
Although there is a bottom structure, gold has not yet tested whether the neckline support is effective. Moreover, the price of gold was suppressed by the daily pressure level yesterday, and it plummeted by 15 US dollars in a straight line, which shows the great pressure.
Trading straregy:
gold: sell@1962 tp1:1952
Next, there will be a lot of trading opportunities for gold, and I will provide you with more signals, don't miss the opportunity to make money!
Gold trading recommendations today
Gold rebounded but 1950, continue to be short
The current decline of gold is still the same, the rebound is not under pressure, and it will continue to make new lows after the shock! Relying on the key pressure position is short
The current gold is undoubtedly still in a downward trend. On the 4-hour level, gold fluctuates all the way down! And it keeps breaking new lows, and the high point connection forms the suppression of the current downward trend line! It is also the key resistance of this rebound!
Before breaking through the suppression of the downward trend line, gold will continue to fluctuate downward, and will continue to break new lows! The longer the shock, the stronger the explosive power!
Trading straregy:
gold: sell@1950 tp1:1935 tp2:1925
Next, there will be a lot of trading opportunities for gold, and I will provide you with more signals, don't miss the opportunity to make money!
Gold trading recommendations today
The current decline of gold remains unchanged, and the rebound is still a short-selling opportunity! The pressure in 1957 above is obvious!
The current gold is in a downward trend. Shorting is the only strategy at present. The thinking is clear. The remaining execution points rely on key pressures, and we should deal with them immediately!
From the perspective of the 4-hour level, gold fluctuates and fluctuates, and after each shock, it will break a new low! Mainly operate at high altitudes, relying on the suppression of the downward trend line, and the upper horizontal pressure of 1957 to dry up, continue to look at new lows!
Trading straregy:
Trading strategy for next week:
gold: sell@1957 tp1:1950 tp2:1940
Next, there will be a lot of trading opportunities for gold, and I will provide you with more signals, don't miss the opportunity to make money!
Gold Trade Next Week OnwardsHi, so this is my prediction on gold, most probably will respect all these prices to create the market structure. I prefer to see CHOCH and BOS, then wait for a pullback in the institutional fib level where the OB and IMB form there. Safely, just wait for the price to make a rejection in LTF before entering.
Gold transaction analysis
The U.S. debt ceiling negotiator said that there are no plans for debt ceiling negotiators to meet today. The Federal Reserve also said that it may have reached or is close to the point in time to suspend interest rate increases.
The market is concerned that the U.S. government is facing the problem of being unable to repay its debts, which has triggered a certain degree of risk-averse demand.However, risk aversion is not strong.Investors are waiting for the Federal Reserve to release the minutes of its recent policy meeting to obtain guidance on the trend of US interest rates.The market's concerns about the US government debt problem still exist, which may trigger a certain demand for risk aversion, which will support the price of gold.
Next, we need to pay close attention to the upcoming minutes of the Federal Reserve's recent policy meeting. The minutes usually provide more details and guidance on monetary policy. Investors will pay attention to the information about interest rate trends. This information will have a certain impact on the gold market, especially for the market's expectations of future interest rate trends, there is still a certain possibility that gold will rise.
Next, I will continue to provide more trading signals, and the weekly profit can reach more than 5K-10Kusd. I need signals to join me as soon as possible!
Wednesday Gold moves in a narrowing bandGold prices have been trading in a narrow range of $1,950-1,980 for almost a week.
This comes after the prices dropped below $2,000 level due to the uncertainty around the US default. C
opper prices have hit a six-month low due to weakening demand and global manufacturing activity.
The metals market has been under pressure as the US dollar has strengthened, with traders speculating that the Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates this year.
SELL GOLD zone 1985 - 1983
Stoploss: 1992
Take Profit 1: 1980
Take Profit 2: 1975
Take Profit 3: 1965
Note : TP, SL full to be safe and win the market !
Today's gold takes profit and leaves the market
The trading signal provided to you today is sell@1980-1985 tp1975-1970
I am very happy to be able to take a profit and leave the market with my friends. We successfully analyzed that gold will fluctuate between 1970 and 1985 today. Overall, the current gold market has always been a downward trend. We accurately captured the highest point of gold today, 1982, and then went short near 1982, took a profit near 1970, and successfully reaped a very good profit.
The current golden point is near 1974, which may not be a particularly suitable buying point. We need to wait patiently and look for better trading opportunities.
Next, I will continue to provide more trading signals, and the weekly profit can reach more than 5K-10Kusd. I need signals to join me as soon as possible!
XAUUSD Longterm analysis
📉 Text marks:
🔹 IL = impulse leg. Inside of IL we can usually see inside structure, which is secondary in nature, like a market noise, unless you trade it on LTF, as it’s own IL.
🔹 ph, pl = protected high or low, which holds current structural impulse.
🔹 bos = break of structure . Based on candle body close below/above previous structural impulse.
🔹 rsz, rdz = refined supply and demand zones. Specific areas to look for LTF confirmations. They are manipulative up-moves before real down moves, or vice versa. Strong hands (the Composite Man, as Wyckoff called it) often come back to such zones to close their manipulative orders at breakeven, before pushing prices further. If body closes outside of the zone, in most cases it will mean the cancellation of the setup.
🔹 if ltf confirms = entry only if there's a shift of structure on lower TF inside of rsz or rdz, or any other type of backtested and approved confirmation.
🔹 liq target = liquidity target: next profit taking levels for strong hands, our main targets based on current price action.
☝️Disclaimer: ALL ideas here are for EDUCATIONAL and MARKETING purposes only, not a financial advice, NOT A SIGNAL. I share my view on the market and search for like-minded traders. YOUR TRADES ARE YOUR COMPLETE RESPONSIBILITY. Everything here should be treated as trading in a simulated environment.
👉I believe that "right or wrong" mentality is a fundamental flaw of any beginner. In reality, a trader is right only when he executes the system and follows his rules, and he's wrong only when he's taking random setups. A trader should find a system he's willing to work with long-term, hindsight test, backtest and then execute live, then refine until perfection.
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💬Send your comments and questions below, share your ideas and charts, I'll be glad to talk to you💬
Gold ready to go long
Gold has fallen many times without forming an effective breakthrough, and there is still a chance to rise in the short term.
Trading straregy:
gold: buy@2009-2012 tp:2020-2030
Next, there will be a lot of trading opportunities for gold, and I will provide you with more signals, don't miss the opportunity to make money!
3 Spikes of Gold in the last 3 yearsIn the last 3 years the Goldprice hit 3 times an all-time high.
We see 3 spikes, and everytime Gold went down after it hit another record.
Lets take a closer look at the spikes
1. Spike - 5.08.2020
Gold reached 2075.282
Reason: Covid-19 peak
2. Spike - 08.03.2022
Gold reached 2070.630
Reason: Russia invaded Ukraine, biggest warfare in Europe since WWII
3. Spike - 04.05.2023
Gold reached 2067.00
Reason: Fear or Banking Sector collapse, after the collapse of SVB and Credit Suisse
Gold Analysis , Possible Swing tradeI posted my gold analysis on Monday where I considered the possibility of a stop hunt before a decisive move down and we are looking at that scenario now. I gave an upper target of the stop hunt and we have hit that to the dollar.
I am looking at a swing short here on gold with at least 10% drop overtime and have a wide SL as indicated in the chart.
The only risk here is FOMO due to misinterpretation of fed meeting yesterday, FED did not say that they are pausing interest rates anytime soon, but big media house is misinterpreting what Powell said yesterday and saying Fed is likely to pause raising rates. (www.youtube.com ) . This can lead to some weakness in dollar and push gold higher, but my stance is clear on Both Gold and DXY.
DXY is forming a long-term bottom and Gold is due a good correction.
I have attached links to my previous gold and DXY analysis below this post.
I have over 6 years of trading and investing experience and have learned a lot in this time. I like to share what I have learned and if you like my content and would like to learn from my experience hit like and follow me for getting notified on my trade, market projections and several upcoming tutorials on technical analysis and several technical Indicators. You can also leave a comment and let me know if you want me to analyze any specific asset or want to learn about any specific topic in the world of Technical Analysis. I Will do my best to create a post for it.
Keep learning and Happy trading All.
Gold 4hr TF I am closely monitoring gold's movements and have a plan in place for both scenarios. If gold breaks the uptrend channel, you anticipate a fall to 1950, where you plan to look for buying opportunities. Alternatively, if gold breaks the decline trend line, you anticipate an acceleration to 2050 and plan to enter on pullbacks to find buying opportunities.
Gold miners are up 1.60% while gold is only up 0.10% is a positive indication that gold may turn bullish and break the decline trend line.
Silver has broken and retested a 2.6 year channel, which suggests that the bulls have taken over and silver should begin to swing bullish.
Will the price of gold continue to rise?The February non-farm payroll data in the United States remained robust, however, the unemployment rate and wage growth slowed, weakening market expectations of a Fed rate hike. The short-term direction of the gold price remains dependent on US economic data, with a focus on next week's CPI report. Technically, the gold price is expected to continue its rebound trend next week.
The fundamental outlook for gold: the key remains on US economic data, with a focus on next week's CPI report.
On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the US added 311,000 non-farm jobs in February, lower than the revised figure of 504,000 jobs but far higher than the expected 205,000 jobs. The unemployment rate in February rose to 3.6%, higher than the expected and previous value of 3.4%. Average hourly earnings in February increased by 4.62% year-on-year, lower than the expected 4.7%, but higher than the previous value of 4.40%.
Although the number of non-farm payroll jobs added in February was significantly higher than expected, the rise in the unemployment rate and the slowdown in wage growth have tempered market expectations of a 50 basis point rate hike by the Fed at its March meeting. At the same time, the market has priced in a significant decline in the terminal rate of the Fed, and expectations of a rate cut by the end of the year have resurfaced.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike by the Fed in March is 39.5%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 60.5%, down from 68.3% and 31.7%, respectively, the day before.
Based on federal funds rate futures, the currency market currently expects the Fed's peak rate to reach 5.27% in July, down from the previous expectation of 5.67% in October, and expects the Fed's rate to fall to 4.94% by the end of the year. The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed before the end of the year.
As market expectations of a Fed rate hike have cooled, the US dollar index fell 0.61% to 104.64 on Friday, while the yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds plunged by 28 basis points to 4.59% and 21 basis points to 3.70%, respectively. The gold price surged nearly $40 to $1,867 per ounce after a $33 drop on Tuesday.
Overall, the February non-farm payroll report still shows that the US labor market remains strong, but some data is beginning to show signs of cooling. Against the backdrop of high interest rates in more than 40 years, the market has made a very sensitive response, and expectations for the Fed's interest rate outlook have quickly weakened, causing the US dollar and US Treasury bond yields to plummet, driving the gold price higher.
Finally, the short-term direction of the gold price still depends on the US economic data, and the US CPI report for February, to be released next Tuesday, is particularly important. If the core inflation or detailed data shows signs of a slowdown in inflation, it could push the US dollar and US Treasury bond yields even lower, thereby boosting the gold price. If the data continues to show sticky inflation, the US dollar and US Treasury bond yields may not fall as quickly.
Technical Outlook for Gold: Likely to Continue its Upward Trend
On the weekly chart, gold rebounded from a significant support area formed by the 100-week moving average and the weekly high of August 8, 2022 (1,807). This week's candle has a relatively long lower shadow, continuing the rebound trend from last week. From the perspective of the trend pattern, the upward momentum of gold is relatively strong, and it is expected to continue its upward trend next week.
If the trend does indeed continue to rise, the immediate resistance levels may be at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (1,899), the weekly low of January 16 (1,897), and the weekly high of February 6 (1,888). On the other hand, if the trend falls back, the market may test the significant support area mentioned above (1,807/1,810) again.
However, the specific direction of the trend may still depend on the US CPI data. It is worth noting that if the data does not cause gold to significantly drop, it will help confirm the (1,807/1,810) area as a temporary low point for gold.