3 Spikes of Gold in the last 3 yearsIn the last 3 years the Goldprice hit 3 times an all-time high.
We see 3 spikes, and everytime Gold went down after it hit another record.
Lets take a closer look at the spikes
1. Spike - 5.08.2020
Gold reached 2075.282
Reason: Covid-19 peak
2. Spike - 08.03.2022
Gold reached 2070.630
Reason: Russia invaded Ukraine, biggest warfare in Europe since WWII
3. Spike - 04.05.2023
Gold reached 2067.00
Reason: Fear or Banking Sector collapse, after the collapse of SVB and Credit Suisse
Goldlongterm
Gold Analysis , Possible Swing tradeI posted my gold analysis on Monday where I considered the possibility of a stop hunt before a decisive move down and we are looking at that scenario now. I gave an upper target of the stop hunt and we have hit that to the dollar.
I am looking at a swing short here on gold with at least 10% drop overtime and have a wide SL as indicated in the chart.
The only risk here is FOMO due to misinterpretation of fed meeting yesterday, FED did not say that they are pausing interest rates anytime soon, but big media house is misinterpreting what Powell said yesterday and saying Fed is likely to pause raising rates. (www.youtube.com ) . This can lead to some weakness in dollar and push gold higher, but my stance is clear on Both Gold and DXY.
DXY is forming a long-term bottom and Gold is due a good correction.
I have attached links to my previous gold and DXY analysis below this post.
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Keep learning and Happy trading All.
Gold 4hr TF I am closely monitoring gold's movements and have a plan in place for both scenarios. If gold breaks the uptrend channel, you anticipate a fall to 1950, where you plan to look for buying opportunities. Alternatively, if gold breaks the decline trend line, you anticipate an acceleration to 2050 and plan to enter on pullbacks to find buying opportunities.
Gold miners are up 1.60% while gold is only up 0.10% is a positive indication that gold may turn bullish and break the decline trend line.
Silver has broken and retested a 2.6 year channel, which suggests that the bulls have taken over and silver should begin to swing bullish.
Will the price of gold continue to rise?The February non-farm payroll data in the United States remained robust, however, the unemployment rate and wage growth slowed, weakening market expectations of a Fed rate hike. The short-term direction of the gold price remains dependent on US economic data, with a focus on next week's CPI report. Technically, the gold price is expected to continue its rebound trend next week.
The fundamental outlook for gold: the key remains on US economic data, with a focus on next week's CPI report.
On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the US added 311,000 non-farm jobs in February, lower than the revised figure of 504,000 jobs but far higher than the expected 205,000 jobs. The unemployment rate in February rose to 3.6%, higher than the expected and previous value of 3.4%. Average hourly earnings in February increased by 4.62% year-on-year, lower than the expected 4.7%, but higher than the previous value of 4.40%.
Although the number of non-farm payroll jobs added in February was significantly higher than expected, the rise in the unemployment rate and the slowdown in wage growth have tempered market expectations of a 50 basis point rate hike by the Fed at its March meeting. At the same time, the market has priced in a significant decline in the terminal rate of the Fed, and expectations of a rate cut by the end of the year have resurfaced.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike by the Fed in March is 39.5%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 60.5%, down from 68.3% and 31.7%, respectively, the day before.
Based on federal funds rate futures, the currency market currently expects the Fed's peak rate to reach 5.27% in July, down from the previous expectation of 5.67% in October, and expects the Fed's rate to fall to 4.94% by the end of the year. The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed before the end of the year.
As market expectations of a Fed rate hike have cooled, the US dollar index fell 0.61% to 104.64 on Friday, while the yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds plunged by 28 basis points to 4.59% and 21 basis points to 3.70%, respectively. The gold price surged nearly $40 to $1,867 per ounce after a $33 drop on Tuesday.
Overall, the February non-farm payroll report still shows that the US labor market remains strong, but some data is beginning to show signs of cooling. Against the backdrop of high interest rates in more than 40 years, the market has made a very sensitive response, and expectations for the Fed's interest rate outlook have quickly weakened, causing the US dollar and US Treasury bond yields to plummet, driving the gold price higher.
Finally, the short-term direction of the gold price still depends on the US economic data, and the US CPI report for February, to be released next Tuesday, is particularly important. If the core inflation or detailed data shows signs of a slowdown in inflation, it could push the US dollar and US Treasury bond yields even lower, thereby boosting the gold price. If the data continues to show sticky inflation, the US dollar and US Treasury bond yields may not fall as quickly.
Technical Outlook for Gold: Likely to Continue its Upward Trend
On the weekly chart, gold rebounded from a significant support area formed by the 100-week moving average and the weekly high of August 8, 2022 (1,807). This week's candle has a relatively long lower shadow, continuing the rebound trend from last week. From the perspective of the trend pattern, the upward momentum of gold is relatively strong, and it is expected to continue its upward trend next week.
If the trend does indeed continue to rise, the immediate resistance levels may be at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (1,899), the weekly low of January 16 (1,897), and the weekly high of February 6 (1,888). On the other hand, if the trend falls back, the market may test the significant support area mentioned above (1,807/1,810) again.
However, the specific direction of the trend may still depend on the US CPI data. It is worth noting that if the data does not cause gold to significantly drop, it will help confirm the (1,807/1,810) area as a temporary low point for gold.
After the shock structure is over, where will the gold price go?In recent trading days, the volatility of gold has been relatively small, and there have been no major ups and downs. At present, it can be treated as range fluctuations. The rebound is limited and basically the rebound has stopped until a certain point. The same is true yesterday. The rebound to the vicinity of 1975 is still falling downwards, while the short-term support is near the 1950 position.Judging from the recent market trend, a large wave of trend processes must be confirmed twice before a large upward or downward trend can be achieved, so the short-term structure is still to build a shock range.
The current volatility range of gold has gradually narrowed to within the range of 1950-1975!Without the stimulus of news events, the probability of gold breaking the level is very small, and it will continue to go back and forth within the range.At present, the previous low level of the price of gold has become an effective support. It is not certain whether it can support the rise again, but it is certain that there is no room for the price of gold to fall again, and the potential energy is even more weak. The downward extension of strong support is located in the 1935-1933 area.At present, the 4-hour chart has entered the contraction and shock of the triangular range, and it has been maintained in the range for a short period of time. It has broken through and stood firm at 1975, so the bulls can continue to see the high of 1980-1986.For the time being, the top pays attention to the pressure of 1970-1975, and the bottom pays attention to the support of 1952-1955.
Short-term trading reference:
1.Sell gold near the 1974 position, stop loss level 1979, take profit level 1960-1955
2.Buy gold near the 1954 position, the stop loss level is 1949, and the take profit level is near 1968
In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
seize the opportunity of trading in the gold volatility range!After yesterday's rally and closing positive, gold has so far emerged from a bottoming and rebounding market today, reaching a minimum of 1958.75. It is currently trading near the 1966 position. Judging from today's short cycle, gold prices have not achieved a breakthrough and have been under pressure. In the falling market, gold did not fall to the 1930 area again, and the 4-hour range fluctuation is still there.It is expected that gold will fluctuate in a large area from 2000 to 1950, which is a high probability.
From the fundamental point of view, although the banking crisis has been alleviated, the economic recession and the geopolitical risk-averse market are still there, so it is destined that gold will continue to be in a high and volatile market.
Short-term trading reference:
1.Sell gold near the 1973-1974 position, stop loss level 1979, take profit level 1960-1955
2.Buy gold near the 1952 position, the stop loss level is 1949, and the take profit level is near 1966
In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
Gold will fall again
A bull fell in love with a cow, and the cow said, if you can guard under my roof for 100 days, I will accept you, so the bull guarded the cow under the roof for one day, two days, three days, until ninety After nine days, the bull left. The mother cow asked the bull why she didn’t persist for the last day. The bull’s answer was very touching. I used ninety-nine days to prove my sincerity, but I used the last day to defend my dignity. No matter how rare I am to you, treat you well, if you don't cherish me, I will let you go. Whether it is a business, a friend, a lover, or a family relationship, this is the case. Only when you know how to cherish each other can you deserve it! The bull asks the cow if you are ashamed!
Let's look back at gold. Now there is a high probability that gold will fluctuate in the large area from 2010 to 1930, so it is enough to pay attention to the gains and losses of the 1996 position in the middle. So today’s operation is very simple. Recently, gold is suddenly pulled up in the US market. The next day’s adjustment is repeated. This will give you a drop. It’s OK. When you get used to it, you will suddenly go away and never look back. Now gold is protected by banks, and at the same time, European rallies are avoided. Risks, as well as the wait for the Ukraine crisis, doomed that the current gold is relatively volatile relative to historical highs, but the rise in the US market is due to continued poor momentum, so there is no need to chase more.
Therefore, if the midline is aggressive, you can go short in 1980-1985, enter in 1993, and target 1955-1930-1915-1900. Without breaking through the 2000 area in a row, the daily line has formed an irregular double top! At present, as long as it does not break through 2000, it will still rebound. After all we all know that the 1867 gap has not been filled. It is enough for us to focus only on 1985 and 1996.
Of course short-term 1962-1965 can be sold, TP1: 1950 TP2: 1945
OANDA:XAUUSD COMEX:GC1! VELOCITY:GOLD
Gold prices are higher and are expected to hit 2010 points againDue to the Federal Reserve's hint that it is about to suspend interest rate increases, and Yellen's speech created a warming of bank risks, gold today continued yesterday's rally and edged higher again.The overall trend showed an incremental increase, reaching the highest level of 1983.7.
Judging from the trend of gold prices, yesterday's daily gold line closed as the mid-yang line, recovering all the mid-yin K-lines of the previous day. After the daily double-yin adjustment, the positive K-line recovered, and there were slight signs of a stop in the short-term, and the local area will temporarily enter a high level of volatility.It may remain in the high range and pull the saw back and forth, entering a daily-level shock correction.
Judging from the 4-hour level chart, the current short-term support is relatively firm, and the upper side is initially facing the first-line pressure of 1985, and the lower short-term support is on the first-line of 1965.Judging from the fragile sentiment of the market, gold still tends to rise. If it effectively stands above 1985 in the process of rising, the gold price is expected to hit the recent new high near the 2010 position again.
In the short-term treatment, the lower support is near 1965, and the initial pressure above is near 1985.
In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
Safe-haven buying may push gold prices to new heightsDuring the Asian session on Monday (March 20), gold bottomed out and rebounded. It had previously fallen to around US 1,968.18 per ounce due to technical adjustment needs, and over the weekend the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Swiss Central Bank jointly took coordinated actions to enhance market liquidity. UBS agreed to acquire Credit Suisse, which once cooled risk aversion, but this optimism quickly subsided, and buying on dips helped gold prices reverse their decline, and they are currently trading near US 2,000/ounce.
It is expected that gold prices will continue to be supported by safe-haven buying, and the market is also paying attention to the Fed's interest rate decision to be released this week. The market expects to raise interest rates by only 25 basis points. The wording is difficult to be hawkish. It may pave the way for the next meeting to suspend interest rate increases. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates before July, which is also expected to provide opportunities for gold prices to rise further.
Judging from the trend of gold, it is currently in a unilateral upward momentum. At present, the gold price has exceeded US 2,000/ounce, and the strong bulls have sufficient strength. In the absence of a greater weakening of the bulls, the short-term structure still maintains long expectations.If you change the bullish expectations of the bulls, it will require a greater reverse operation or obvious market news impact. Therefore, the short-term structure will still maintain the long-term expectations. Before there is a clear short signal, it is not easy to change the direction of the trend structure.
In addition, the intraday chart shows that the weekly trend point is above the 5-day moving average of the daily cycle 1960. As long as it does not fall below the support of this point, don't think that gold can have room for a sharp decline.For the intraday market, gold did not continue the rise at the end of Friday at the opening of the market, but fell back and adjusted. The current lowest is near 1968. Since the decline is not strong, then in the short term, the 1968 line supports bullish, and can be adjusted upward appropriately.
In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
The 3 Dimension Trading / Investing 3D Investing or Trading = Technical Analysis + Depth Analysis
Depth Analysis:
• Macro analysis or / and
• Micro analysis or / and
• Other analysis
See the following video "3rd Dimension Analysis" link for other analysis.
Many use either technical or fundamental analysis alone in their research work, I observed they likely to struggle with confidence to make the entry judgement call. We can develop a greater confidence in how we time the market by combining TA + FA.
3 types of gold for trading:
• COMEX Gold
0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00
• E-mini Gold
0.25 per troy ounce = $12.50
• Micro Gold
0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Short gold immediately
The 1830 short position on gold has been closed for profit. What can we do now to maximize profits? Looking at the short-term trend, a death cross has formed on the 15-minute chart, and with continued weakness on the 15-minute chart, a death cross on the 30-minute chart is also about to form. Therefore, it makes sense to sell at this point.
My personal trading strategy:
Enter a short position at the current level, with a target of 1820.
During the profitable process, investors can choose their own profit-taking levels based on their risk tolerance.
Liking, commenting, and subscribing are your biggest encouragement to me. Find me to make trading easier! You are also welcome to check out my other ideas below.
OANDA:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD
Can gold still rally?
In trading, we may have short-term profit goals, but long-term goals are built on the foundation of short-term profits. Without short-term profits, long-term goals are meaningless. Therefore, we need to balance short-term and long-term goals to achieve steady and sustained profitability.
After Powell's speech, gold continued its downward trend and hit a one-week low around $1809. The question of whether it will continue to rise is a concern for many traders.
I think there is an opportunity. First, the 50-basis-point rate hike in March is not set in stone. It is just a change in expectations. As Powell said, we need to pay attention to data, especially this Friday's non-farm payroll report. If employment data is weak on Friday, it does not support the Fed's continued high-intensity rate hikes. At that time, the expectation of a 50-basis-point rate hike will also cool down, and the gold price will rise accordingly. Secondly, from a medium to long-term perspective, I am still optimistic, because after multiple 50-basis-point rate hikes, the Fed's terminal interest rate is relatively high now, and it should be difficult to continue to raise rates by 50 basis points. Therefore, the big cycle will gradually slow down the rate hikes.
Overall, I think there is no need to be too pessimistic. Short-term adjustments will only make subsequent rebounds more powerful. There are many events this week, and the probability of continued volatility is high. It is expected that gold will begin to rebound next week.
For short-term trading strategies this week, we should first look at the support level of $1809 below, with the first target level of $1845 and the second target level of $1860. I will update the article with detailed price levels and trading directions based on the market situation. I also welcome everyone to express their opinions. Follow me to make trading simpler!
FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1!
Gold surged and then retreated, waiting to short at 1819.How to maximize profit in real-time gold trading today?
The gold market in the US session has been unable to hold its ground, with clear signs of weakness in the long positions, and the market is struggling to advance. The price briefly surged near 1822 but was quickly pushed down, with three failed attempts to break the resistance level. Overall, the market is in a weak consolidation phase.
On the 4-hour chart, the price is still under strong pressure, and the K-line has not been able to touch the moving average, indicating resistance to further price increases.
Therefore, my real-time short-term trading strategy focuses on selling short. I recommend buying a short position near 1819, with a stop loss at 1826 and a target price at 1809, the support level where we previously entered long positions.
Investors can choose their own profit-taking points during the process of making profits based on their trading styles.
Please note that the above is only a short-term trading opinion. If there are suitable opportunities, I will notify promptly.
Liking, commenting, and subscribing are your biggest encouragement to me. Follow me and make trading easier! Also, feel free to check out my other ideas below.
OANDA:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD
Gold is bearish and $9 is in the bag
The Achilles heel of human psychology---fear and greed. Why is there fear, repeated failures, unprincipled stop losses, funds are inadvertently because the countless stop losses are getting less and less, so that they dare not start when they are right, hesitant, and keep doing it when they are wrong , Don't dare to do it! Don't dare to look at what is right, but keep watching when you are wrong. Why greed, greed is gambling, greed in the wrong direction can only lead you to the infinite abyss.
Now I would like to share my thoughts on shorting gold yesterday. Since the early fall did not touch the lower support, and the structure of the fall did not appear in a three-wave pattern, the main consideration yesterday was that the fall was much lower, but there was a rebound trend in the afternoon, which indicates that There will be a wave of falling back and the space is also in line with the profit-loss ratio, so the position that may be under pressure is given in advance in the morning. The rebound touches the 50%~61.8% area of the golden section, which is the node that may fall back. Around $9. When arriving at the 1841~1840 area in the evening, this is also the previous platform high point and the structure is completed at the same time, so try to do more risk control at $4, but the cloud of the chairman of the Federal Reserve's speech continues to suppress the short-term trend, and the long-term thinking here fails. The speech at 11 o'clock in the evening began with the hawkish interest rate hike speech. As soon as the market bulls gave up, the decline was logical. Therefore, judging from yesterday's operation, news factors can sometimes affect the development of local markets, so risk control must be given top priority at all times. One short, one long, one profit, and one loss are still profitable overall, mainly because Control the size and target of each stop loss. The current downtrend has become a second downtrend in advance, and the previous low will be tested or even broken in the past two days.
Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write in the comments. I will be happy 👩💻
Missed Last Rally of GOLD? No Worries, Follow This Setup Good to see gold is following us
Hope this Analysis will help you guys to plan your trades
I see an Order Block area in Weekly Time frame and sooner or later it will be fulfilled
This area would be a good long area for those who missed last rally of gold.
Cheers
DYOR
Buy gold now.
Gold has support at 1830-32below, and it has basically returned to this level after the pullback. The distance between the moving averages and the K-line is relatively far, and the moving averages and the K-line have mutual attraction, indicating a likely return to the moving averages. Therefore, we can directly enter a long position at 1833 for gold. Are you ready? Opportunities do not always come, so we must seize them when they do.
Trading strategy: Go long on gold at 1832, with a stop loss at 1823 and a target of 1852.
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Gold breaks through previous highs, bulls will continue to rise
The maple leaf ignited a fire in the forest, it was after experiencing the blow of the frost: the big tree stood proudly in the snowstorm, it was after taking deep roots in the soil: you——stand out and make a big splash, it is in After practicing calmly and steadily.
Gold chose to break through directly on Friday, and did not choose to fall back again in the 1844~1847 area. Now that the market has made a choice, it has opened up short-term upside space, and the next pressure is located at 1864~1873. For gold operation, it is recommended to buy at 1848, risk control at 1844, and target 1860~1864.
Gold is bullish for several reasons:
1. Gold breaking through the previous high means that the bullish trend is not over yet, and there is still room above the daily closing.
2. The pressure within the day is 1864~1873, and the support is 1849~1845.
Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write in the comments. I will be happy 👩💻
The bulls counterattack, can the non-farm week go up to 1900?
You understand when others don't understand, you act when others understand, you succeed when others act, and you become rich when others succeed. This is: extraordinary thinking, foresight. Smart people can understand, shrewd people can see accurately, and savvy people can see far. The voice of the wise is the direction of the fool. You must learn to give up what you should not have, otherwise you will not be able to enter the palace of wisdom. Prejudice is worse than ignorance
In the past week, the trend of gold price has basically revolved around the rebound of the bulls. The daily level performance closed positive for four days, and it even rose to 1856 at the end of Friday and then closed the line. On the weekly line, a big positive package was formed. The negative reversal pattern, which is what we reminded last week, is the long counterattack after the monthly line ends, which is exactly in line with expectations~
After the monthly line closes, the 5/10 daily moving average indicator at the monthly line level is still bullish in the mid-term. As I said, if the price of gold is above 1790, it is possible to arrange mid-line long orders, but it is a pity that the lowest retracement on Monday is only around 1804, and the mid-line long orders have not been able to complete the layout, but this week's short-term long-term profit is not small~
Although the weekly level of the 5/10 daily moving average is dead fork downward, the reversal of the Dayang K-line directly disrupts the track of the moving average indicator. Next week, the 5-day moving average will form a corner, so the weekly level is basically difficult. Now comes the suppression on the technical side. Lianyang rebounded on the same daily line. The fundamentals of gold at the beginning of next week will definitely be bullish. It is not too difficult for the technical side to be bullish above 1875. In the short term, there may not be any Larger pullback~
Next week will usher in the announcement of the super data ADP employment and non-agricultural employment population. At the beginning of the week, we continue to be basically bullish. With a population of 500,000, it is a major bearish force for gold and silver, but it is difficult to maintain the employment population above 500,000 this month. This is a potential bullish factor that stimulates gold prices to rebound before non-farm payrolls, slowing down the release of non-farm payrolls. Announcing the downward pressure on the US dollar at that time~
To sum up, whether it is before or after non-agricultural, I am personally optimistic about the performance of gold bulls. Before the data at the beginning of the week, it was bullish to the 1875-1885 area, and it is expected to hit the 190 mark within the week. The limit is the 1910-1920 area~
Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write in the comments. I will be happy 👩💻
Forecasting the future trend of goldDon't be indifferent to gentleness because of too much busyness, don't hide enjoyment because of too much pursuit, work is not the whole of life, stop in a hurry, please enjoy the blessings of life. have a good weekend
Last week, gold closed as scheduled, all profits.Congratulations to my friends
As analyzed during the trading week, gold was primarily bullish with pullbacks providing opportunities for buying. Essentially, all long positions were profitable, albeit with slight variations based on individual entry points. The overall trend direction was accurately captured. In the short term, gold is expected to remain bearish, and those with significant long positions should consider controlling their position size. For those who have questions or insights on the gold market, feel free to click on the rocket icon to join the discussion.
There are two principles in investment: first, don't lose money; second, never forget the first.
XAUUSD-GOLD Dear traders, hope you all doing great, this will possibly be the last sell entry be on XAUUSD, We have high impact news on XAUUSD and that is why we think, it would be a perfect area to sell gold and target 400-500 pips. We may have the buy limit set around 1780-85 as this is the area every trader is eying on.
-Trade Setup will only be valid if we have good rejection to ‘red marked area’.
-If price comes to area range enter with 50-60 stop loss.
-First target 100 pips once achieved close 50%.
-Do not enter earlier with bigger stop loss.
-Trade smart and wise.||
Good luck and Trade safe. Remember, Patience Pays.