XAUUSD – Market Update & Daily Plan May 14, 2025🧠 Macro Outlook – Eyes on Thursday
CPI is done. The next major catalyst? A full lineup of USD data + Powell speaking tomorrow, Thursday, May 15.
📊 Key Events – May 15 (NY Session)
🟩 Core PPI m/m → Forecast: 0.3% (prev. -0.1%)
🟩 Retail Sales m/m → Forecast: 0.0% (prev. 1.4%)
🟩 Core Retail Sales m/m → Forecast: 0.3%
🟩 Unemployment Claims → Forecast: 229K
🟧 Empire State + Philly Fed Manufacturing Indexes
🔴 ⚠️ Fed Chair Powell Speaks
This is not a light news day. It’s a full macro storm. Expect strong reactions from gold depending on how inflation, retail demand, and Powell’s tone align.
🔍 Market Flow – Price Action Overview
Gold remains in a retracement phase after bouncing cleanly from 3215–3225.
It’s now consolidating at 3244–3252, a mid-range supply zone. Above this, we track a clear mitigation path toward untouched OBs and FVGs.
No structure has broken cleanly to confirm bullish reversal yet — so we remain reactive, not predictive.
🧱 Sniper Mitigation Map
🔢 📍 Zone ⏳ Status ⚙️ Reason
1️⃣ 3244–3252 🔄 In play Mid-range supply zone currently in test
2️⃣ 3280–3288 ❗Unmitigated M30 OB + inefficiency pre-CPI
3️⃣ 3315–3320 ❗Unmitigated Asian session FVG / Gap
4️⃣ 3330–3338 ❗Unmitigated H1–H4 bearish OB (key reversal area)
5️⃣ 3350–3360 ⚠️ Only if structure shifts Upper OB — reserved for extreme flow
📌 Key Technical Zones
Zone Type Level Context
✅ Demand Zone 3215–3225 Confirmed post-CPI bounce zone
🔄 Active Supply 3244–3252 Current area of compression
🟧 M30 OB 3280–3288 Clean bearish OB not yet tested
🟥 FVG Magnet 3315–3320 Asia imbalance likely to attract price
🟥 HTF OB 3330–3338 Valid HTF reversal supply
⚠️ Upper OB 3350–3360 Only if 3338 breaks with strength
🧠 How to Use This Plan
Watch what price does at each zone, then build your own plan based on confirmations like BOS, CHoCH, rejection wicks, or liquidity sweeps.
Scenarios:
Tap & reject 3288? → Short scalp idea back to 3244
Break above 3288? → 3315–3320 becomes next magnet
Strong reaction at 3330–3338? → HTF sell zone in play
Powell hawkish? → Gold likely pressured down from OBs
Powell dovish? → Price may reclaim above 3338
📣 Final Note
Thursday = 🔥 Macro Meltdown Day 🔥
Powell + inflation + retail data = high-probability moves. Let price lead. Don’t force early entries into chop.
💛 Appreciate clean, structured levels?
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