1.2 Accurate technical analysis of gold short-termThe upper rail resistance of the four-hour flat pattern is 2638 and the double-line resistance is 2642. Break through and open slightly upward, and continue to rise to form an upward opening pattern
The lifeline and the lower rail of the double line are superimposed in the 2619-2617 area
The early trading accelerated the rise point in the 2625-2623 area. Take this as the dividing line, and look for the next resistance area of 2638-2642 upwards, followed by the 2648-2650 range
Keeping low is the key, breaking high is the focus, and taking advantage of the trend is the method
If it is delayed, there will be variables. If it can take advantage of the trend and break through 2648-2650 with the east wind, the bulls can have more control later
Refer to this idea, early The market is arranged around the low point 2621-2623 area as support to rush to 2632-2633. If the rise is realized as expected, the second step is still bullish. It is planned to use 2628-2626 as support to see a bullish trend. The price will only fall back to the 2632-2631 area.
So choose the 2632 area to enter the market with low longs. The original plan of 2628-2626 remains unchanged. Look up to find the 2638-2642 area, and then look at 2648-2650
The 2598 long orders at the beginning of the week are still held in small bands. The loss point is now moved up to 2610 (profit loss situation, if it falls back, it is also profitable), and pay attention to the gains and losses of 2648-2650
Goldminers
Analysis of short-term gold trading on December 31Fundamentals: The gold market fluctuated at a low level in the U.S. market, and the logic of long orders at the support point entered the market.
At the beginning of the U.S. market on Tuesday (December 31), the gold price was around $2,610. The gold market may be preparing to end 2024 on a weak note, and December is expected to see its first decline in seven years. But there is still considerable optimism in the market before the new year. Despite the current market weakness, gold continues to hold its position in a difficult environment. She pointed out that the sell-off in gold since its October high and the subsequent consolidation were the first major corrections in the precious metal this year. "I am not at all worried about the volatility we have seen, and I think this respite is good for the market," she said.
Even with this disappointing price trend entering the new year, investors should not forget the performance of 2024. Gold prices have seen unprecedented gains, setting new all-time highs about 40 times this year. Gold prices peaked in October, with a full-year increase of more than 26%, the best performance since 1979. Gold prices are set to hit $2,400 an ounce this year in 2024, and they are nearly $400 above that level. Looking ahead, she believes gold still has plenty of room to rise.
Gold prices will struggle as investors continue to focus on the strong resilience of the U.S. economy. She explained that policies proposed by President-elect Trump should support economic growth in the first half of next year, but she expects problems to return. Since winning the presidential election in November, Trump has said he wants to extend the 2017 tax credit. He has threatened to impose tariffs on countries in Asia, the Americas and the European Union. He has also proposed rounding up and deporting millions of illegal immigrants and recently expressed a desire to annex Canada and Greenland.
Policies such as increased import tariffs and extended tax cuts will provide some support to the economy, which has pushed up U.S. bond yields and the dollar. However, she added that these policies will also come at a cost. Everything Trump proposes to do will lead to inflation, raising tariffs and deporting potentially millions of low-wage workers will push up prices, and tax cuts will exacerbate the growing deficit, thereby increasing inflationary pressures. Trump's proposal also has a political cost, as many see his position as a negotiating tactic. She added that this uncertainty will continue to support gold's safe-haven appeal.
Personal operation analysis:
Trend: shock trend
Support: around 2607.00
Resistance: around 2631.50
Strategy:
View logic:
Near 2608, light position, stop loss 2600, take profit around 2623--2635, trailing stop loss 300 points
12.30 Gold Short-term Operation Technical Analysis BUYLast Friday, gold took a high-rise and then fell back. The trend is under control, and everyone has witnessed it! Gold opened at $2,633. In the morning, gold slightly retreated and touched $2,628.6, and then rebounded. The highest rebound of gold in the Asian and European sessions reached $2,638, and then it was blocked and fell back. The US session continued to fall and touched the lowest level of $2,611.5. It rebounded in the late trading and finally closed at $2,620.8. The daily line closed with a negative line with upper and lower shadows, and the weekly line closed with a pregnant cross star pattern with an upper shadow slightly longer than the lower shadow. After the end of this pattern, gold was obviously blocked. There is still a need to continue to fall at the beginning of the week. Today, gold focuses on the upper resistance at $2,630. Rebounds rely on shorting below the resistance here, and then look at $2,610 and $2,605 below! The specific operation points are subject to real-time layout!
12.30 Gold Market Short-term Operation Technical AnalysisTechnical Aspects
Gold prices fluctuated around $2,620.00 on Monday, and the daily chart shows that gold prices are currently in a consolidation phase, close to the 9-day and 14-day moving averages. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) hovered below 50, reflecting a neutral market sentiment. If the RSI can break through the 50 level, it may indicate an increase in the market's buying interest in gold.
In terms of resistance, gold prices may first target the psychological level of $2,700.00, and further resistance is the monthly high of $2,726.34 recorded on December 12. This level is an important target for bulls to conquer in the near term, and a breakthrough may trigger a new round of buying boom. In addition, the trend of gold prices in the medium term is still guided by technical indicators. If bulls can hold the current support level, they will have the opportunity to further challenge higher resistance.
In terms of support, gold prices may find initial support at $2,608. If it falls below this level, selling pressure may increase, pushing gold prices to the monthly low of $2,583.39. If gold prices fall further below this support, it may trigger more technical selling pressure, causing prices to slide to lower support areas. The market needs to pay attention to the possibility of increased volatility.
The gold market is currently in a critical consolidation phase and may continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term. If gold prices can break through the current consolidation area, market sentiment may quickly turn bullish. In the coming weeks, changes in technical indicators will provide more guidance to the market, especially whether gold prices can steadily break through short-term resistance levels and further challenge historical highs.
Analysis of short-term gold trading on December 27The gold market opened at 2610.6 in the morning and then rose directly. The daily line reached a high of 2621.6 and then fell back quickly. The daily line reached a low of 2609.7 and then rose in the late trading. The daily line finally closed at 2616.7 and then closed with a small positive line with a long upper shadow line. After this pattern ended, it rose first today and gave a short stop loss of 2630 at 2635. The lower targets are 2615, 2607 and 260.
12.26 Gold short-term operation analysis strategyThe market opened at 2610.6 in the morning of the previous day and then the market rose directly. The daily line reached a high of 2621.6 and then the market fell rapidly. The daily line reached a low of 2609.7 and then the market rose in the late trading. The daily line finally closed at 2616.7 and the market closed with a small positive line with a long upper shadow line. After this pattern ended, it rose first today and gave a short stop loss of 2630 at 2635. The targets below are 2615, 2607 and 2603
12.24 Technical Analysis of Gold Short-term OperationsYesterday, the gold market opened low at 2619.5 in the morning and then the market rose first. The daily line reached a high of 2633.3 and then the market fell back. The daily line reached a low of 2607.8 and then the market consolidated. The daily line finally closed at 2613.3 and the market closed with a pregnant inverted hammer pattern with a long upper shadow. After the end of this pattern, today's market fell back and continued to short. In terms of points, today's market first rose to 2620 short and conservatively 2628 short stop loss 2632. The target is 2612 and 2607. If it falls below, it will look at 2603 and 2600. If it falls below, it will leave near 2593 and 2585.
12.23 Technical Analysis of Gold Short-term OperationsLast week, the gold market opened at 2650.3 at the beginning of the week, then rose slightly to 2664.7, then fluctuated and fell. The weekly line reached a low of 2582.6, then rose at the end of the trading day, and finally closed at 2622.8, and then the market closed in a hammer-like pattern with a long lower shadow. After this pattern ended, the weekly line was rubbed and consolidated. In terms of points, today's decline to 2610, stop loss at 2600, and the target is 2635 and 2640.
Summary of 12.21 Golden WeekendThis week, gold experienced continuous shrinkage, but we also followed the trend and finally won a great victory. Our members also successfully completed the goals set at the beginning of the week.
Finally, I wish you all a happy weekend. Let us continue to complete our profit plan next week.
12.20 Gold short-term short-selling trend remains unchangedAgainst the backdrop of changes in the Fed's expectations for a rate cut in 2025, and the reduction in the number of rate cuts and the reduction in the magnitude, the gold market plunged sharply on Wednesday night. Although there was a rebound on Thursday, the price once reached 2626. However, it should be noted that this seemingly strong rebound is actually a bullish counterattack after the decline, and it is difficult to reverse the overall downward trend.
From the daily trend pattern, the closing line of the high-rise and fall leaves a long upper shadow, which means that the increase cannot be maintained and the strong pattern is difficult to return.
This rebound, on the one hand, vented the resistance of the bulls, and on the other hand, it confirmed the pullback of the previous bottom support and completed the top-bottom conversion. Once the key support level is broken, the bears will continue. In addition, after the short-term touches the whole hundred mark, there will be repeated situations. From the technical perspective, whether it is rising or falling in the short-term, after touching the whole hundred mark, there will be short-term repetitions. Therefore, after yesterday's decline and the price fell below 2600, it is normal for the price to rebound.
Although the current market has not started to fall, it is very difficult for the price to return to the original support level, and the downward trend has become a high probability event.
Today's trading strategy:
SELL: 2620 Target 2600 90 80
12.20 Gold Short-term Operation Analysis StrategyYesterday, the gold market opened at 2645.2 in the morning, and then the market rose slightly. The daily line reached a high of 2652, and then the market was in a range. Before 3 am, the daily line reached a low of 2632.9, and then the market was in a range. Although the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the early morning, the dot plot showed that the rate cuts next year would be reduced from 4 to 2, and the Fed Chairman later confirmed that the market broke through and fell sharply. The daily line reached a low of 2583.1, and then the market was in a range. The daily line finally closed After the line reached 2585.2, the daily line closed with a saturated large negative line with a slightly longer upper shadow line. After this pattern ended, the rebound trend was destroyed. The market has a need to continue to fall back within a certain period of time. In terms of points, the short position at 2600 this morning was reduced and the stop loss was followed up at 2602. Today's market first rose to give a 2600 short conservative 2612 short stop loss of 2616. The lower targets are 2590 and 2583. If it falls below, it will focus on the 2572 and 2563-2554 support range.
12.19 Gold interest rate decision determines direction!How to participate in the short-term gold today?
From the daily chart of gold, it is a weak bearish pattern. The upper 2662 is the resonance pressure of the daily and hourly lines. This position has been prompted in recent days. The hourly chart shows that 2651 is the hourly annual line level pressure. This position also suppressed the retracement in the early trading. The hourly BOLL is slowly closing. The data is approaching. The 1-hour and 30-minute charts are also in a volatile pattern. So today's morning trading will not see a big market outbreak. Pay attention to the 2640/38 area below to see a volatile rebound of 2651-2662. When the price reaches 2662, you can first participate in the retracement. Of course, these are all before the data is released. After the data is released, you can still treat it as a shock between 2706-2600.
12.18 Gold tests low and waits for interest rate cutYesterday, the gold market opened at 2652.6 in the morning. After that, the market rose to 2658.9. After that, the market continued to fall under pressure. The daily line reached 2632.7 at the lowest point. After that, the market was slightly pulled up by the support of the 50 mark of the Fibonacci in this round of upward movement. The daily line finally closed at 2646.2. After that, the market closed in a hammer pattern with a long lower shadow. After this pattern ended, the daily line constructed a rubbing signal. Against the background of the Fed's interest rate cut tomorrow morning, today's retracement layout is long.
Intraday short-term operation suggestions:
BUY: 2640 Defense 35 30
$: 55 62 68
12.18 Gold shock revision BUYGold rebounded slightly yesterday, with a small cross positive line on the daily line.
1. After bottoming out and rebounding in the morning, it started to rise from 2650 in the afternoon.
2662-3 is the 382 position of the rebound from Friday's decline, and 2664 is the continued decline, so it is the key resistance level.
The two watersheds are very clear, one is the low point of 2643, and the other is the European session time point. Therefore, the 2650 line was chosen to bet on the rebound.
2. The 2662-4 line, the evening retracement, the formula emphasizes that the European session opened a decline in the morning, oscillated, especially the rebound from 6-8 o'clock, so in this process, the price did not break through from 8-10 o'clock, and it has been sideways, so the probability of a retracement in the US session is very high.
3. The 2650-1 line, yesterday's intraday rise and retracement to the 618 position, the standard 618 in the oscillation is better to make a mistake than to let it go.
Although the 618 position was touched yesterday or sideways this morning, the strength of the pullback is not large, but it is still a sign of oscillation.
Today, it is quite controversial. The daily small cross positive line, according to the previous rhythm, the daily positive line is a continuous positive line, so we still need to see a rebound.
The cross K is also the transit point of the short-term decline, so the European session time is very important.
The watershed 2643 is also very important, which is the key to see whether it will continue to fall.
From the operation point of view, in the morning at 618, the 4-hour is still more, 2651-2 is more, if you don’t participate before 7-8 in the morning, you won’t participate in the second time.
Today, we really need to observe the strength and weakness of the day.
Look at the rhythm of the day’s operation and the layout of the US market.
1. Break 2643 during the day, the US market will pull back and empty, and the support level is 2630-32.
2. If it continues to rise during the day, the daily line is likely to go through a cycle of continuous positive rebound. Today, we will see a pullback of 618. If it is touched, you can short. You can’t double top short.
Intraday short-term operation suggestions:
BUY: 2640, defense 30, target 55-60
12.17 Gold Short-term Operation Analysis SELLGold was still fluctuating and repairing yesterday, but it eventually fell under pressure. Gold was still fluctuating with a short side. Rebounds are still opportunities to continue to short. Gold is still short at the current price of 2656 in the early trading!
The 1-hour moving average of gold is still a short arrangement with a death cross downward. The adjustment of gold has not ended. Gold fell under pressure at 2665 yesterday, indicating that gold is still in a strong resistance zone above 2660. It is still short at highs under pressure at 2665 in the Asian session. It can also be shorted near 2656 in the Asian session.
Gold is fluctuating and urgently needs to choose a direction. Of course, it is now a fluctuating relay of the decline, so it is still short at highs. The focus of this week is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision waiting to be launched, which is also the battle between the long and short positions of gold. Whether the gold bulls can turn the tide depends on the impact of the data.
Of course, if gold does not break a new low for a long time, it is not ruled out that gold has the possibility of short-term bottoming, so it is time to be flexible at any time.
Asian trading strategy:
Short gold at 2656, stop loss at 2666, target at 2640-2635
12.16 Gold Short-term Operation AnalysisThe gold market rose and fell last week. At the beginning of the week, the market opened high at 2645.1 due to the risk aversion factors on the weekend. The market first filled the gap and gave 2626.1. Then the market rose strongly. By Thursday morning, the highest point of this round of impact target 2726.2 was touched. After that, the market took profits and the negative fundamental factors suppressed the market to fall rapidly. The weekly line finally closed at 2648.6. The weekly line closed with a shooting star pattern with a very long upper shadow. After the end of this pattern, the weekly line has technical adjustment pressure, and the target of this round of testing is still the weekly level Bu Lin middle track support. In terms of points, if it rises first in the morning, give 2667 shorts and conservatively give 2670 shorts and stop losses at 2674. The lower targets are 2655 and 2645. If it falls below, this week's targets are 2640 and 2631 supports. If it still breaks, look at 2623 and 2612 near the extreme adjustment points of this round to exit and reverse trend long positions.
12.11 Gold Breakthrough? Exploring the bottom?Gold broke through the range yesterday and rose sharply, with a medium-sized positive line on the daily line.
This is mainly because it did not retreat to the key resistance level of 2688-9, which was the previous decline.
In addition, it also formed another force at 7-8 o'clock in the morning, and went through a cycle.
In terms of technical points, today's technical points are basically the same.
1. The previous day was strong, and the second day's morning 7-8 o'clock saw an increase.
2. The morning rose, forming a low point watershed. Today is 2693.
3. The European session broke the previous day's high, so the US session must be long twice, and the correction at 6-8 o'clock requires one more time in the US session.
4. There was no cyclical decline after 10 o'clock in the US session yesterday, and the resistance level of 2689 was blocked, but there was no decline.
5. The rise continued to break the high in the early morning, and it is destined to have more cycles in the morning today.
And the morning continued to rise, breaking the 2700 line. How to look at it today?
From the 4-hour perspective, the market has been rising with broken Yang all the way. There are two trends for this pattern:
1. Continue to accelerate the rise at the current position. The upper resistance is 2722-24, the previous high point.
2. This kind of broken Yang has a relatively fast bottoming out and rebound during the day, and then continues to be strong.
Because after the morning market, the long position is very stuck, it depends on how to understand it:
From the perspective of the pattern, it is unnecessary to short, either continue to wait, continue to rise during the day, and continue to be long in the US market.
Or wait for more intraday retracements, but this kind of retracement now, if it returns to the starting point in the morning, it is not meaningful, and it can only break the position and rise.
Therefore, we are more inclined to the latter, and the European market will quickly bottom out and rebound during the day.
In other words, there is no need to chase the longs, wait for more intraday retracements, or wait and see the US market.
Although the watershed in the morning is at 2693, according to the continued rise in the early morning, the watershed is at 2684-5, which is the focus of today's attention.
In view of the intraday retracement, especially the retracement after breaking the watershed, we are considering more, and we will see the bottom rise.
Or it is extremely strong, and it will continue to pull up directly, and we will see the show during the day, and we will see more highs and falls in the US market. The key resistance above is 2722-4.
Short-term support is 2684-5. Other positions are not considered for the time being, just pay attention to the intraday prompts.
12.11 Gold breaks resistance level, 2700 is comingTechnical analysis: key support and resistance levels
From a technical perspective, spot gold has successfully broken through and closed above the key resistance level of $2,650, and this breakthrough has provided new momentum for bulls. The oscillator indicators on the daily chart show positive upward momentum, suggesting that gold prices may continue to challenge the $2,700 mark and further touch the supply range of $2,720-2,722.
But at the same time, attention should be paid to the role of support levels. As a previous resistance level, $2,650 has now been transformed into an important short-term support. If it falls below this level, gold prices may further pull back to the $2,625-2,620 area, or even test the $2,600 integer mark. If it breaks below $2,600, it may open up more downside space, targeting the November low of $2,537-2,536.
Intraday analysis: upward momentum may continue
Overall, the upward momentum of spot gold remains solid. Under the combined effect of safe-haven demand, weak US dollar and geopolitical risks, gold prices are expected to continue to rise in the short term. However, before the Fed meeting and the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, the market may be volatile. If the CPI data shows that inflationary pressures are easing, it may provide conditions for gold bulls to further exert their strength.
In the medium and long term, the gold market is still strongly supported by fundamentals. Investors should pay close attention to the latest developments in the Fed's policy direction and the geopolitical situation, which will continue to affect market sentiment and gold prices.
12.10 If gold falls back, go longYesterday, the gold market opened high at 2645.3 in the early trading due to fundamental risk aversion news. After that, the market first filled the gap and reached 2627.2. After that, the market rose strongly. The daily line reached 2676.4 and then the market consolidated. The daily line finally closed at 2660. After that, the market closed with a spindle pattern with long upper and lower shadows.
BUY: 2645 Stop loss: 2640 2635
$: 2657, 2667, 2677. Breakthroughs look at 2685, 2692, 2702-2710.
12.10 Geopolitical gold prices are expected to riseThe oscillating market is a market that accumulates momentum. The longer the oscillation lasts, the longer the unilateral continuation will last after the breakthrough. This is the basic law of the market trend.
In the morning of December 9, the price of gold rose first, which was a response to the risk events over the weekend. The safe-haven property of gold was reflected again.
The situation in the Middle East (Syria) is deteriorating continuously and rapidly. Its opposition has seized control of the capital Damascus, and the top leader has been forced to flee. This "evolution" is the key to the deterioration of the incident, which has aggravated market concerns.
Intraday analysis suggestions:
In the short term, the support below the gold price is $2,620. This position has been tested and tested many times in the early stage. The upper pressure is at $2,660 and the strong pressure is at $2,670. The early week period can maintain a bullish trend on the strong support of $2,620.
The pressure shown by the technical side is very obvious at the moment, but the fundamental support factors also exist. This is the reason for the continuous struggle between long and short positions, and it is also the reason for the breakthrough. On the whole, after the oscillation or struggle between long and short positions, the probability of the long side winning is relatively high. Therefore, the transaction can be mainly long on dips
XAUUSD: 9/12 Market Analysis and StrategyTechnical analysis of gold
Daily resistance 2700, support below 2580
Four-hour resistance 2654, support below 2627
Gold operation suggestions: Gold's technical side last Friday was slightly higher under the influence of the positive NFP data, and it was under pressure from the 2643 mark, and then fell under the shock. It finally closed below the 2640 mark and showed weak shocks. Today's Asian session slightly jumped high and pierced the 2647 line, and then fell under the degree of suppression and shock. In the short term, the gold price suppressed the recent weak shock consolidation trend below the 2660 mark.
From the current 4-hour line trend analysis, we focus on the 2654 line pressure above, and the 2637-2627 line short-term support below. In terms of operation, we will continue to participate in the trend. At present, the 2637-2627 weekly and daily level support below has been supported, and we can continue to be bullish.
BUY:2637near
BUY:2627near
The strategy only provides trading directions.
Since it is not a real-time trading guide, please use a small SL to test the signal.
Pay attention to the trading range of 2625~2657Weekend news shows that the People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings by 160,000 ounces again after six months. After more than 13 years of civil war, Syrian opposition forces seized control of the capital Damascus on Sunday. The martial law crisis in South Korea continues to ferment. In the short term, bullish opportunities have increased.
On the one hand, the market will continue to pay attention to news related to the geopolitical situation, but more attention may be focused on the US November CPI data to be released this week. Investors need to pay attention to changes in market expectations. Although the situation in Syria may boost safe-haven buying in the short term, it should be noted that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the conflict between Israel and Hamas may usher in a ceasefire, which may suppress the trend of gold prices.
The MA10/7-day moving average of gold still remains flat, the price is running above the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and the RSI indicator continues to adjust the central axis. The Asian session opened high and touched 2648, and the Bollinger Bands on the hourly chart also closed. It is expected to continue to fluctuate widely at the beginning of the week. Intraday trading will first look at the 2625/2657 range adjustment, and short-term thinking game of selling high and buying low.
The risk aversion sentiment of gold rose over the weekend, but the rise of gold did not continue. It continued to rise and fall, so it is still difficult for gold bulls to stir up big waves. Wait for the rebound to continue to short.
Gold continued to fluctuate in 1 hour, and the moving average still crossed downward and diverged. Gold has not broken through 2657 under the risk aversion situation, so gold will continue to short at highs below 2657.
First support: 2625, second support: 2616, third support: 2603
First resistance: 2657, second resistance: 2668, third resistance: 2677
Trading strategy:
According to the first resistance/support, sell high and buy low in the range of 2625~2657. The focus above is 2668.
12.6 Gold breaks bottom to welcome non-agricultural sector!Tonight's non-agricultural data, the market is divided into two sections:
1. Before the non-agricultural data, according to the current rhythm, it is considered to be volatile, so change the range or short, volatile 618, choose the intraday decline and rebound 618 position, you can also short.
2. Non-agricultural data, last month's non-agricultural data was only 12,000. According to ADP, it is bullish for gold, but the data is bullish, and the probability of non-agricultural data being negative is not high. It can only be lower than expected. At the same time, the increase in unemployment rate is bullish for gold. This is also difficult.
So for the evening non-agricultural data, the current decline will either release the non-agricultural trend in advance or rush down and fall back. It is unlikely to be simply bearish.
The intraday short-term 618 position is at the 2626-8 line, which can be blocked for the second time.
Non-agricultural support, if it continues to break the bottom, don't grab more, this kind of continuous bottom breaking, more is meaningless.
See if it bottoms out and rebounds, and treat it as a new range of fluctuations.
Focus on the 100-day moving average position below, the daily large-scale support level
In addition, according to our shock formula, short-term and long-term opportunities are not available at the moment.
Before the non-agricultural market, there will be a second reminder, just follow the members.