GoldGold has some more correction before any upside further.
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Goldprediction
Analysis and layout of the latest gold market ?Analysis of gold market trend next Monday:
Gold technical analysis: Stimulated by the news, gold prices have continuously refreshed historical highs this year. As of the close of this week, gold prices have reached a high of 3357. There was a slight retracement signal after setting a historical high on Thursday, but the closing price was still above 3320. The weekly line closed with a real body longer than the upper and lower shadows, suggesting that there is a possibility of further upward movement next week. That is to say, while we are optimistic that overbought will trigger selling at the end of the week, there are also investors who continue to be optimistic about the pullback and buy into the market. So Thursday's trend is to dive from the high to 3284 and then rebound to 3327 to close. The closing price reflects that the gold price is still in a state of continued rise in the general trend.
In the short-term trend, Thursday's callback stopped at 3284, and did not reach the previous high conversion support of 3245, which we predicted. Then the support level can be moved up to 3285; as for the upper resistance, we need to pay attention to the suppression of the historical high of 3357. If the news over the weekend, especially the trade conflict and Trump's remarks, continue to stimulate the Fed to cut interest rates, then the probability of gold rising will be greatly increased. So for next week's operation, it is recommended to focus on long positions on pullbacks. As for the entry point, the first one is 3310. This is a step support level for high-level pullbacks and a retracement point during the rebound, so it can be used as an entry point to look bullish. The upper side mainly focuses on the high point suppression of 3357. If it continues to break, the upper side can continue to see the position of 3409. On the whole, it is recommended to focus on pullbacks and short positions on rebounds for the short-term operation of gold next Monday. The upper short-term focus is on the resistance line of 3357-3360, and the lower short-term focus is on the support line of 3285-3310. Friends must keep up with the rhythm.
Reference for gold operation strategy next Monday:
Strategy 1: Short gold rebounds near 3350-3360, target near 3335-3320, and look at the 3310 line after breaking.
Strategy 2: Go long on gold when it pulls back to around 3305-3310, target around 3325-3345, and look at the 3360 line if it breaks.
Analysis of gold price trend next week!Market news:
April 14 to April 18, 2025, due to the Good Friday holiday, the market was closed on April 18. There were only four trading days this week, and the spot gold market performed strongly, with a weekly increase of 2.76%. Prior to this, some investors chose to take profits after the international gold price hit a new high of more than $3,357 on Thursday. Although the current technical side shows that gold is overbought, the overall market is still in a steady upward trend.The rise in London gold prices was driven by the safe-haven demand caused by the weakening of the US dollar, trade policy uncertainty, and hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on the risk of stagflation. The economic data released this week showed differentiation, with a solid labor market but weak housing data, coupled with geopolitical risks such as the European Central Bank's interest rate cut and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, further enhancing the attractiveness of gold.Looking ahead, the bullish trend of gold remains solid, and investors should pay close attention to the Fed's subsequent policy statements and trade policy dynamics, which will have an important impact on market sentiment and gold price trends in the coming weeks.
Technical Review:
Gold daily level still maintains a strong unilateral bullish trend in the short term. There is no highest, only higher. Before the top pressure K appears, it will continue to step back and be bullish. The support position confirmed by the step back is about 3300-3290. As long as this position is stabilized, there is hope for further efforts in the future to set a new historical high.The 4-hour level is now in high-level fluctuations. The key MA10-day support moves up to 3313. As long as this moving average can be held, this cycle will still maintain a strong squeeze and pull up. At the hourly level, there will be a certain decline and correction in the short-term Asian session on Thursday, and it will be trapped in a shock consolidation. The next step is to wait patiently for the consolidation to end. The short-term pressure point middle track is also the 10-day moving average 3332-33 line. There may be multiple attempts here, but before breaking through, don't chase the rise! Pay attention to the lower track support 3313 below, and the upper track of the previous channel step back to confirm the range of 3300-3290, because the upward channel is uncertain whether there will be a false piercing. Therefore, it is recommended to wait for 3313, 3300-3290 to stabilize and rise next week, or break through 3332-33 and then step back to confirm stability, which is also bullish. After a sharp rise, it is just a small adjustment at a high level or sideways, which is to prepare for the next round of rise.
Next week's analysis:
Gold fell all the way in the US market on Friday, falling to 3283 at the lowest, but gold rose again in the second half of the night for risk aversion. Will gold return to a large range of fluctuations or end the adjustment? Then the trend of gold after the opening next week is very critical. If gold continues to rise strongly at the opening next week, then gold may be adjusted to the end, and gold bulls may continue to exert their strength. This will be seen after the opening of Monday.The gold 1-hour moving average is now continuing to diverge upward with a golden cross. If the gold 1-hour moving average turns in the short term, then the gold 1-hour will begin to adjust. So if the short-term opening is weak next week, then the gold 1-hour moving average may begin to turn, and if it is strong, it will continue to extend upward. Gold is suppressed by the downward trend line in the 1-hour short term. The short-term pressure of gold moves down to the 3332 line. If gold is still under pressure at 3332 after opening next week, then gold may continue to fluctuate downward in the short term, thereby driving the moving average to turn around. If it directly breaks through 3332 after opening, then gold will start to fluctuate in a large range.
Operation ideas:
Buy short-term gold at 3300-3303, stop loss at 3292, target at 3340-3350;
Sell short-term gold at 3350-3353, stop loss at 3362, target at 3310-3300;
Key points:
First support level: 3313, second support level: 3300, third support level: 3285
First resistance level: 3332, second resistance level: 3357, third resistance level: 3373
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 3341 and a gap below at 3307. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3341
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3341 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3362
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3362 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3384
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3384 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3410
BEARISH TARGETS
3307
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3307 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3278
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3278 WILL OPEN THE SWING RNGE
3255
3233
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3233 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3027 - 3179
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 3330 and a gap below at 3282. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range. We have a bigger range in play then usual.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
BULLISH TARGET
3330
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3330 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3372
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3372 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3414
BEARISH TARGETS
3282
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3282 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE
3224
3190
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3190 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
SWING RANGE
3131 - 3077
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD DAILY CHART MID/LONG TERM UPDATEHey Everyone,
After completing our last daily chart idea please see update on our new daily chart idea. We have also updated a new Goldturn ascending channel.
We are seeing price break out of the channel but will need ema5 to lock outside of the channel to confirm the breakout vs a fakeout. If this happens then the channel top is likely to to form support for a continuation, just like we are seeing the current candles bounce from the channel top, as support.
This is the beauty of our Goldturn channels, which we draw in our unique way, using averages rather than price. This enables us to identify fake-outs and breakouts clearly, as minimal noise in the way our channels are drawn.
We will use our smaller timeframe analysis on the 1H and 4H chart to buy dips from the weighted Goldturns for 30 to 40 pips clean. Ranging markets are perfectly suited for this type of trading, instead of trying to hold longer positions and getting chopped up in the swings up and down in the range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up using our smaller timeframe ideas.
Our long term bias is Bullish and therefore we look forward to drops from rejections, which allows us to continue to use our smaller timeframes to buy dips using our levels and setups.
Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings rather then chasing the bull from the top.
Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gold fluctuates and adjusts, will next week be the key?Gold fell all the way in the US market on Friday, with the lowest falling to the 3283 line. However, gold once again rose as a risk aversion. Will gold return to a large range of shocks, or will the adjustment end? The trend of gold after the opening next week will be critical. If gold continues to rise strongly at the opening next week, then gold may end its adjustment, and gold bulls may continue to exert their strength
If gold is still under pressure at 3332 after the opening next week, then gold may continue to fluctuate downward in the short term, thereby driving the moving average to turn. If it directly breaks through 3332 strongly after the opening, then gold will start to fluctuate in a large range.
The current market is very volatile due to the impact of news, and the next trend of gold will become clear on Monday. I will continue to bring analysis to my friends on Monday
Gold prices continue to rise as profit-taking takes place? Will Gold prices fell from an all-time high of $3,357 an ounce after Fed Chairman Powell warned that the Fed's goals could conflict, sparking concerns about stagflation. Regarding trade negotiations, U.S. President Trump said they were progressing well, adding that he was very confident of reaching a trade deal with the European Union and China. This statement has boosted market risk appetite and hit safe-haven gold.
So the previous decline only reflects investors taking profits before the long holiday weekend. However, the weak dollar and trade tensions have kept it above $3,300 an ounce.
Quaid believes that there is no short selling, only longs, and there have been many one-sided markets during this period. Judging from the current trend chart, it is still running upward and has shown signs of rising bottoms, which shows that the bulls have occupied a more advantageous position. If the big positive line continues to break new highs next week, there will be an opportunity to continue to attack 3,400.
For next week, the bullish position of gold retracement is around 3,290.
Quaid wants to say to everyone: Before going out to sea, fishermen don't know where the fish are. But they still choose to go because they believe they will return with a full load. And you, my friend, don't know whether you can make a profit, but you still need to try. Success is not something that will happen in the future, but from the moment you choose and decide to do it, you will gain something if you persist in believing. The same is true for Huang Investment. You may still be confused at the moment, but as long as you persist, the problem will eventually be solved.
Trading suspension period. What is the future trend of gold?The dollar continues to fall. Fundamentals depend on Sino-US relations and economic data, especially after Powell's speech. The weekly close is close to the support level, and the decline may continue.
Gold recovers after shock. Fundamentals show that prices may continue to rise. The market will be closed for the next three days and traders will take a break. During the holiday, the weekend is full of too many unknowns. But from a technical point of view, the focus is on the medium-term level. Quaid believes that its upward trend is still strong.
If there is no supernatural event during the holiday, gold may rebound from the nearest resistance level in the Asian session and test the trend support level before continuing to rise. If there is any major change in the mood of the country/politicians, I will update my thoughts in time. Give traders time to adjust their positions.
Potential Reversal in Gold After Completing Widening Formationhello guys!
The 4H Gold/USD chart exhibits a classic Broadening Formation (also known as a Megaphone Pattern), marked by higher highs and lower lows, reflecting increased volatility and market indecision. This pattern is identified with three key swing points on both the upper and lower trendlines:
Point 1 and Point 2 formed the initial boundaries of the pattern.
Point 3, recently touched, completes the structure by testing the upper boundary of the formation near $3,238, suggesting a potential bull trap, as illustrated in the schematic overlay.
just look at:
The price has sharply rallied to the top of the widening pattern, aligning with the third high, often a strong signal for reversal in this setup.
A rejection from this level is anticipated, supported by the bearish projection arrows targeting multiple demand zones.
Bearish Target Zones:
$3,180 – $3,160: Previous consolidation zone.
$3,140 – $3,120: Mid-pattern volume area with past price sensitivity.
$3,060 – $3,040: Major support zone with a strong volume node and previous reaction area.
Volume Profile Insight:
The volume profile shows significant activity in the $3,040 zone, reinforcing it as a major demand area where buyers might step in again.
__________________________
Summary:
This setup suggests a potential bearish correction after a strong upward move. If price action respects the pattern, traders may look for short opportunities from current levels with the outlined targets. Watch for confirmations such as reversal candlesticks or breakdowns of minor support levels.
GOLD, Is it 5th Wave?1. Sharp Movement, Steep Trade Angle
2. Length of 3rd Wave is equal to 5th Wave
3. Ascending Channel TGT is completed
4. Divergence in the Price Movement
5. Nifty Price Movement - It is at a breakout point. The Correlation between 2 asset classes is approximately Negative 0.30 to 0.35 post Covid
If this is the case, then price may not move beyond 1 Lakh
This will be a great opportunity to book the profit in gold; it may correct to 70000 or below in the next few months.
GOLD-----------------------------------------------
The long rally in gold can't last forever or can it?
This is the end of the 25% growth wave, I think we will see a fall of about half or a third of this value
-----------------------------------------------
Gold - Heading Higher For Another +30%!Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) won't stop any time soon:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Back in 2015 we witnessed a significant rounding bottom formation on Gold, starting the next major bullrun. With the all time high breakout back in the end of 2023, this rally was just confirmed and after the recent trendline breakout, Gold can still head much much higher.
Levels to watch: $4.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
GOLD: What happened?Hello friends
The trend is very bullish and given the recent events in the world, the possibility of a decline is decreasing, so we can buy in pullbacks that the price is making in steps and with capital management and risk, price targets have also been specified.
*Trade safely with us*
Will gold still rise after correction? Market analysis referenceAnalysis of gold market trend:
Technical analysis of gold: Today in the Asian session, gold directly rushed to the 3357 line, continuing the previous upward trend. The spot gold price in the Asian session has once again hit a record high, breaking through $3350 for the first time. The US dollar index fell close to a three-year low, triggering a sharp rise in market risk aversion, pushing up gold prices. The current basic trend of gold rising has not changed, and the bulls are strong. However, from the perspective of time nodes, even if you are bullish today, you must pay attention to the adjustment space at any time. The Asian session hit a high and fell back, and the European session did not continue to rise but fluctuated and fell. Attention should be paid to the second bottoming out in the evening. In addition, the market will be closed tomorrow, Friday, and will not open normally until next Monday; therefore, today, Thursday, we must do a good job of risk prevention; such as short positions, such as adjusting positions, and so on.
In the short term, gold is now likely to start a large range of fluctuations again. The 1-hour inverted V trend has begun. Gold will either start a large range of fluctuations or make adjustments. If there is no support from bullish news in the short term, then the short-term gold bulls may be suppressed. Due to the rest tomorrow, do less and wait and see. Gold will be operated next week in combination with the news over the weekend. The recent market has been ups and downs, and I can finally take a good rest for three days to relax the tense atmosphere. The recent ups and downs of gold are like an electrocardiogram, which affects the hearts of everyone who pays attention to gold. It is mainly too active. Maybe you drink a sip of tea and smoke a cigarette, and gold goes back and forth for more than ten US dollars. So, don't be too bullish today. If you are bold, go short, and if you are prudent, just watch the show! Overall, today's short-term operation strategy for gold is mainly to go short on rebounds, and to go long on pullbacks. The short-term focus on the upper side is 3315-3320 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 3245-3285 support. Friends must keep up with the rhythm.
Gold operation strategy reference: short gold rebounds near 3315-3320, target near 3295-3285, and look at the 3245 line if it breaks.
Strategy 2: Go long on gold pullbacks near 3280-3285, target near 3305-3315, and look at the 3320 line if it breaks.
Technical indicators warn of the risk of a short-term correctionThe recent gold price has reached a record high, mainly driven by the escalation of global trade frictions and the expectation of the Fed's easing. Although the Trump administration has temporarily revoked tariffs on some goods, it has threatened to impose tariffs on automobiles, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. The repeated policies have exacerbated the market's risk aversion. At the same time, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 100 basis points in 2025, and the US dollar index has fallen to its lowest level since April 2022, further supporting gold prices.
Technically, gold prices are facing short-term correction pressure, with the key position below being supported by today's lowest point at 3312. If the opening high of 3344 is effectively broken above, it may rise to the 3358-3370 range again. In the medium and long term, trade uncertainty and expectations of monetary easing will still provide support for gold, but we need to be wary of the volatility risks brought about by policy easing or a rebound in the US dollar. Focus on key price breakthrough signals and respond flexibly to short-term fluctuations.
Gold recommendations for the evening: Go long at 3317-3312, with a target of 3340.
Updated Structure & Trend (April 17 – Pre-Weekend Trading)🧠 Updated Structure & Trend (April 17 – Pre-Weekend Trading)
✅ HTF (D1, H4): Price has made a new all-time high at 3357, extending the bullish run — but we're now deep in premium exhaustion territory.
🟠 M30–H1: First signs of distribution and internal CHoCH on M15 are showing. No follow-through above ATH. Price is stalling, likely waiting for NY volume.
⚠️ Volatility is low, and Friday is a market holiday, so any manipulation or rejection will likely happen today.
🔼 New ATH: 3357
This makes previous zones like 3333–3340 less relevant for traps.
Focus shifts to the true inducement zone:
🔻 3355–3365 → Main sniper short zone, valid only with clear M5 structure (BOS or reversal FVG).
🔻 Key Sell Zones (Updated):
3355–3365 → Final inducement / exhaustion zone near new ATH
3342–3345 → OB retest below weak high, valid only if confirmed with bearish PA on M5
🟢 Key Buy Zones (Same):
3284–3288 → OB + FVG + discount zone
3260–3265 → H1 equilibrium and last clean demand
3230–3235 → Deeper reentry zone if we get a flash crash before NY
📊 Trading Logic:
If NY session spikes again into 3355–3365, we're ready to snipe with precision.
If price fails to reclaim 3345 and breaks M5 structure, we target early shorts.
On a clean dump, we look for longs in the 3280–3260 range, with confirmation.
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Once again a great day on the market today with our chart idea playing out, as analysed. This chart idea is now fully complete with our final target being completed today.
Yesterday after completing 3324 we stated that we needed ema5 lock above 3324 to open 3352. We got the cross and lock above 3324 to open 3352, which was hit perfectly completing this target and this chart idea.
We now expect a rejection on this zone and then we can continue to catch bounces from the lower Goldturns.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3261 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3261 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3292 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3292 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3324 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3324 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3352 - DONE
BEARISH TARGETS
3230 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3230 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3201 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3201 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE
3179
3152
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3152 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3120
3094
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3094 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3069 - 3038
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gold hits new heights again, price correction may occurThe current consolidation fluctuations are completely in line with my previous predictions.
The market has hit new all-time highs again and there is a possibility of moving towards higher levels. The price has now hit the resistance area around 3320, which may mean the possibility of a correction in this area, creating long opportunities. The price has formed a sideways trend around 3220 points, which may be looking for a buy trade signal. In addition to these, there is an ascending trend line below the range, which previously served as both support and resistance. In view of the interest rate cut information released by the European Central Bank today, Quaid expects market volatility to increase. The expected target is the resistance area around 3390 points.
The market may continue to rise. On the chart, the price formed a strong positive line, which indicates the continuation of the upward trend. Currently, its price is retracing after hitting a new high. Some consolidation areas can be seen now, which play a supporting role in the bullish market. In addition, there is an ascending trend line, which has been broken many times before. I think that the retracement area of the previous volatility range may be a benign area to expect the continuation of the rise.
Quaid recommended:
Aggressive trades can be made by going long in the current consolidation area.
Smooth trading allows for part-time observation.
I hope this analysis can help you.
I am Quiad. Seeing my analysis strategy, no matter the past gains and losses, I hope you can achieve investment breakthroughs with my help and turn every tide of the gold market into our wealth wave.
Gold-----Buy near 3300, target 3360-3400Gold market analysis:
Currently, the highest peak of gold is 3357. When we analyzed on Monday, we said that the next target of gold is 3400. Is it still far away? At that time, we also encountered a lot of opposition. We were not guessing the top, but just used an indicator of the weekly line to estimate the next target next week. The big rise does not mean the top. We need to follow the big trend this week and continue to buy. Look at Goldman Sachs and ETFs predict that gold will reach above 4000. We are just a short-term trader. In fact, the long-term direction has little to do with us. We need to follow it in the short term. Yesterday, the daily line closed positive. Yesterday, we also arranged to buy at 3270 and 3302. We should not keep buying gold today. The rapid dive in the Asian session has shown that it needs to be repaired.
The lowest price in the Asian session is 3320, and the highest price is 3357. This range is the repair range of the Asian session. You can look for profit opportunities here. In addition, its 3320 is not a strong support, but a small support. The strong support is the low point repair position of 3292 in the European and American sessions yesterday, which is also the position of the indicator and the integer mark of 3300. If the Asian session falls back sharply, we should also consider buying opportunities. Buying is the main course, and today's selling is auxiliary.
The strong pressure of gold is invisible, with a small pressure of 3357, a small support of 3320, a strong support of 3300-3292, and a watershed of 3300.
Fundamental analysis:
The recent continuous increase in tariffs has led to a strong rise in gold, and the US dollar has fallen sharply. Today, we will pay attention to the situation of unemployment benefits. Powell's speech last night was to suppress the US dollar.
Operation suggestions:
Gold-----Buy near 3300, target 3360-3400
Gold has a top signal, be wary of a retracement today!
On Wednesday, as the market waited to see whether Trump would reach a new trade agreement with trading partners, the US dollar index fell again and once fell to around $99.
Due to the weakening of the US dollar and the escalation of trade tensions, spot gold continued its record-breaking rise, refreshing its historical high to above $3,340, and soared by more than $100 during the day.
Today, Thursday, gold continued its bullish trend last night in the early trading, and once hit a historical high of 3,357 in the early trading.
But now we need to be extra careful, because tomorrow is Friday, Good Friday, and the market will be closed all day, which means that today, Thursday, is the last trading day of the week. Currently, long positions in gold are likely to be taken out of the market.
Once the long positions are taken out of the market, it is easy to have a large retracement, so we must be careful about this and must not be overly bullish.
Today's opening position is around 3342. In the morning, it retreated to around 3320, and then stretched up again.
However, it can be found that since it fell below the opening position of 3342, gold has not stood above 3342 again.
This is a strong signal of short-term retracement, especially when long positions are about to be profited.
Moreover, the hourly chart has a little ABC wave-shaped retracement. Once it comes down, I think it is not a problem to touch 3300-10, and it is not ruled out that it will be lower.
Currently, the ma10 moving average position below gold is also at 3300-3310.
Therefore, it is not recommended that you chase long orders today, and you should be prepared for the possibility of falling to 3300-3310 in advance.
In terms of operation, I suggest that you can enter the market and short near 3340, and the target can be 3300-3310.
It is critical to grasp the entry point when stepping backYesterday, the technical aspect of gold opened in the Asian session and immediately ushered in a strong bullish pull-up. The European session broke through and stood above the 3300 integer mark and entered a strong shock consolidation. The US gold price fluctuated repeatedly and stabilized above the 3300 integer mark and ushered in an accelerated pull-up. Finally, the gold price broke through the 3320 mark in the early morning and continued to rise to around 3350 and closed strongly. The daily K-line closed with a shock break and a long positive, and the daily increase reached 120 US dollars. The overall technical form has completely entered the rhythm of bullish squeeze. At present, all technical aspects are overbought, and short-term technical indicators are distorted. The overall rise logic is greatly affected by the external risk aversion sentiment. The bullish momentum still exists, and the retracement continues to look for opportunities to go long. However, it is worth noting that Friday is Good Friday, and today's weekly close will lead to profit-taking in the market.
From the 4-hour analysis, today's lower support focuses on 3310-3305, and focuses on the important support of 3293-90. This position is also the watershed between the strength and weakness of the bulls and bears during the day. Be cautious about chasing more at high levels. I will prompt you with specific operating strategies during the session, so please pay attention in time.
Gold operation strategy: 1. Go long when gold falls back to 3310-3305, and add to long position when it falls back to 3288-93. The target is 3345-3350.
Trading Smarter, Not Harder: Decoding Institutional MovesThere’s an old saying in trading: “Follow the smart money.” But how do you know where the smart money is going? The answer lies not in guesswork but in data—specifically, the kind of institutional-grade data that most retail traders overlook. If you’re serious about understanding market dynamics, it’s time to dive into the world of **COT (Commitment of Traders) reports** and **options flow data** from the **CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange)**. These tools are like your personal radar, cutting through the noise to reveal what the big players are doing.
Step 1: Understanding the Big Picture – Why Market Sentiment Matters
Before we zoom into the specifics, let’s start with the basics. Markets are driven by sentiment—the collective mood of participants. When fear dominates, prices fall; when greed takes over, they rise. But here’s the catch: Retail traders often react to sentiment after it’s already priced in. By the time you see a headline screaming “Market Crashes!” or “Record Highs!”, the opportunity has likely passed.
This is where systematic analysis comes in. Instead of relying on emotions or lagging indicators, smart traders use raw data to anticipate shifts in sentiment. And two of the most powerful sources of this data are **COT reports** and **CME options flow**.
Step 2: The Commitment of Traders (COT) Report – Peering Into the Mind of Institutions
The **COT report**, published weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), provides a breakdown of positions held by different types of traders: commercial hedgers, non-commercial speculators (like hedge funds), and small retail traders. Here’s why it’s invaluable:
- **Commercial Hedgers**: These are the “smart money” players—producers and consumers who use futures markets to hedge their risk. For example, a sugar producer might sell futures contracts to lock in prices. Their actions often signal future supply and demand trends.
- **Non-Commercial Speculators**: These are the momentum-driven players who bet on price movements. Tracking their positioning helps identify potential reversals.
- **Small Traders**: Often considered the “dumb money,” their positions frequently coincide with market tops or bottoms.
By systematically analyzing the COT report, you will discover your ability to identify patterns and positioning levels of participants that signal trend reversals or the onset of corrections. Seriously, this will blow your mind! The insights you gain will be so groundbreaking that they will change your trading game forever.
Step 3: Options Flow – Real-Time Insights Into Institutional Activity
While the COT report offers a macro view, **options flow** gives you real-time insights into institutional activity. Directly through CME data feeds, you can track large block trades in options markets. Here’s why this matters:
It will take some time, observation, and comparison with price charts to learn how to uncover insights that lead to trades with a risk-reward ratio of 1:10 or even higher. This isn’t about needing to make options trades; that’s not a requirement. It’s about being able to trade the Forex market much more effectively by using entry points highlighted by options and futures market reports.
For example, over the past few weeks, the USD/JPY pair has been in a downtrend. Long before this happened, major players were accumulating positions in call options on the futures for the yen (which is equivalent to a decline in the yen). We discussed this before the drop occurred (you can easily find those analyses on our page ).
What’s remarkable is that there are many such insights available. For certain instruments (like precious metals and currency pairs), these insights appear with a certain regularity and provide excellent sentiment for opening positions or reversing positions in the opposite direction.
Step 4: Connecting the Dots – From General Trends to Specific Trades
Now that we’ve covered the tools, let’s talk about how to apply them systematically. Imagine you’re analyzing the sugar futures market (a favorite among commodity traders):
1. **Check the COT Report**: In the precious metals market, commercials are often positioned short, hedging against the risk of a decline in the underlying asset's value. When their net position hovers around zero , it typically signals a bullish trend for gold prices in the vast majority of cases.
2. **Analyze Options Flow**: when filtering options by sentiment, there are several key factors to consider:
- Size and value of the option portfolio
- Distance from the central strike (Delta)
- Time to expiration
- Appearance on the rise/fall of the underlying asset
Option portfolios with names such as vertical spread, butterfly, and condor (iVERTICAL SPREAD, IRON FLY/FLY, CONDOR/IRON CONDOR) have predictive sentiment regarding the direction of the asset's price movement. While "naked" options (PUT or CALL options) with above-average volume can signal that the price is encountering a significant obstacle at that level, leading to a potential bounce off that level (support or resistance).
3 **Combine with Retail Positions Analysis**: Look for opportunities to trade against the crowd. If retail sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, consider a bearish position, and vice versa.
This layered approach ensures you’re not just reacting to headlines but making informed decisions based on valuable data.
Step 5: Why Systematic Analysis Sets You Apart
Here’s the truth: Most traders fail because they rely on intuition rather than evidence. They chase tips, follow social media hype, or get swayed by emotional biases. But markets reward discipline and preparation. By mastering tools like COT reports and options flow, you gain a competitive edge—a deeper understanding market breath! The path of least resistance!
Remember, even seasoned professionals don’t predict every move correctly.However, having a reliable structure allows you to maximize profits from transactions, eliminate noise and unnecessary (questionable) transactions.
Final Thoughts: Your Path to Mastery
If there’s one takeaway from this article, let it be this: The best traders aren’t fortune-tellers; they’re detectives. They piece together clues from multiple sources to form a coherent picture of the market. Start with the big picture (COT reports), zoom into real-time activity (options flow), and then refine your strategy with technical analysis.
So next time you open chart, don’t just look at price. Dive into the reports/data before. Ask questions. Connect the dots. Because in the world of trading, knowledge truly is power.
What’s your experience with COT reports or options flow? Share your thoughts in the comments below—I’d love to hear how you incorporate these tools into your trading routine!
**P.S.** If you found this article helpful, consider bookmarking it for future reference.
