Gold price shorts stabilize, continuing to fall
💡Message Strategy
Gold prices fell into a weak consolidation pattern as the U.S. dollar continued to rebound and market risk appetite increased, suppressing safe-haven demand. Although it rebounded slightly, it failed to stand firm at $3,300, indicating that the upper resistance is still strong.
From a fundamental perspective, the recently released US durable goods orders and consumer confidence index performed better than expected, providing support for the US dollar.
Specific data showed that US durable goods orders fell 6.3% in April, better than the expected -7.9%, although far lower than the revised value of 7.6% last month; core orders (excluding transportation) recorded an increase of 0.2%. In addition, the US consumer confidence index rebounded sharply to 98 in May, the largest monthly increase in nearly four years, reflecting the improvement of economic and employment prospects.
Trump's postponement of the 50% tariff on the European Union until July 9 has strengthened risk appetite in the short term and weakened the safe-haven demand for gold. However, there are still major uncertainties in trade policy, coupled with the continued deterioration of the US fiscal situation and continued geopolitical risks, which provide some support for gold prices.
In addition, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice in 2025, and this prospect is gradually being factored into gold prices. In particular, if the "Beauty Act" is passed, it will aggravate the fiscal deficit, which may put medium-term pressure on the US dollar and provide long-term support for non-yielding gold.
📊Technical aspects
On the technical level, gold prices fell below the short-term rising trend line on Tuesday and then fell further. It is currently testing the $3,300 level where the 200-period moving average of the 4-hour chart is located. Once the moving average is clearly broken and a valid close is formed, the short-term downward trend may be confirmed.
The initial support level below is in the $3,250-3,245 area. This range has formed a consolidation platform in the past few trading days. Once it falls below or triggers more stop-loss selling, the target will point to the $3,200 integer mark.
Therefore, for the next gold, the best way is to suppress the decline at 3320, break through 3285 (expand the range to find 3275), and successfully break through the downward switching space range of about 30-40 US dollars. If the price breaks through 3320, it will be treated as a sweep, waiting for the upper side to determine the higher resistance of 3330-3325, and then look down to 3285 (expand the range to find 3275), breaking through the switching space
💰 Strategy Package
Short Position：3320-3330,3340-3350
