Gold is expected to break out of the current rangeThe daily chart shows that the international gold price has fallen into a high-level shock consolidation trend after rebounding from a one-month low. The current price is repeatedly sawing in the 2900-2930 range, and the market's long and short forces tend to be balanced. Technical indicators show subtle differentiation: the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average form a dead cross and then turn upward, suggesting that there are signs of stabilization in the short term; the momentum of the MACD indicator candle chart continues to shrink, but the dead cross rhythm has slowed down; the KDJ indicator forms a low-level golden cross, and the RSI indicator rebounds from the oversold area, indicating that market sentiment is turning from pessimism to cautious optimism. However, the upper 2930 area gathers multiple pressures-this position is both the rebound high last Friday and the key resistance level of the previous failed breakthrough, suppressing the further upward space of gold prices.
In terms of fundamentals, the US non-farm payrolls data in February was unexpectedly lower than expected, reinforcing the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates this year. Historical experience shows that interest rate cut cycles are often beneficial to interest-free assets such as gold, which provides medium- and long-term support for gold prices. But in the short term, the market still needs to wait for more economic data to verify the Fed's policy stance. During this period, gold prices are more susceptible to fluctuations in the US dollar index and changes in US bond yields.
Focus on the key support level of 2900 above $2930 as the primary pressure target. If US economic data continues to weaken, gold prices are expected to break through the current range of fluctuations and retest last year's highs. Operational advice: Go long near 2905-2910, target 2915-2920.
