Gold price rally resumes?Market news:
In the early Asian session on Thursday (April 10), spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently trading at $3,085/ounce. International gold staged a "violent rise" on Wednesday, soaring more than 3% in a single day, the largest increase since March 2020, and approaching the $3,100 mark during the session. Behind this epic market is the Trump administration's decision to raise tariffs on Asian giants to 125% - the market panic index instantly exploded, and investors once frantically sold stocks and industrial commodities, pushing gold to the safe haven throne.The capriciousness of the US government's tariff plan has shaken the world, and investors are looking for direction and certainty. This generally supports gold. Although the 90-day tariff suspension order has caused the London gold price to fall slightly to $3,082, traders' fingers are still hanging on the buy button: the current gold price has soared by $400 from the beginning of the year, and is only one step away from the historical peak of $3,167 on April 3! All eyes are on Thursday's US CPI data - if inflation exceeds expectations again, the market's fear of the Fed's "longer and higher" interest rate will send gold prices to $3,200; if the data is weak, the expectation of an early rate cut will trigger more crazy safe-haven buying. In addition, it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States. Several Fed officials will speak on this trading day, and investors also need to pay attention.
Technical Review:
Market news influences everything, tariffs are escalated again, and gold rose sharply to 3099.4 in the late trading, close to the 3100 mark, and retreated sharply by more than $50 to 3048 before closing. The daily line turned from negative to strong positive and closed. The New York closing price on the daily chart once again stood on the MA10-day moving average, and the one-day trend was broken and the volatility was quite large. Be alert to the market's extreme volatility again, closing strong at a high level in the early morning. From the short-term trend, the bulls have the upper hand, showing an extremely obvious strong pattern. Therefore, the focus of the day needs to be on whether this rising trend can continue. After the correction during the day, participate in the low-price buying layout. If there is no correction during the day and the 3100 mark is broken first, pay attention to the opportunity to buy at a low price after the 3100 mark is broken.
Today's analysis:
At present, gold continues to rebound, and the previous view remains unchanged. The general trend is buying, but it is currently in the mid-term adjustment period. As emphasized earlier, after the previous sharp drop in gold, it is still necessary to continue to be bullish without directly changing the current strength. This is why I have been suggesting buying in the past two days. From a technical point of view, the rebound to 2956 at the beginning of the week ushered in a rebound, and the lows gradually moved up. On Wednesday, the daily line closed with a big positive line, so the previous 2956 position formed a bottoming performance, and the Bollinger closing became more and more obvious. The technical conditions for this wave of bottoming have been met, so there was a bullish outbreak in the US market on Wednesday. As long as the current gold market stands firmly at 3100, it can continue to look up to 3136 or even 3167 or higher. In the 4-hour chart of gold, we can see that the market has been advancing all the way, forming a head and shoulders bottom pattern at 2955 and 2970. In the short term, we will first see whether it can stand above 3100, and then see whether it can form a unilateral surge and reach a new high. Therefore, trading should still be mainly based on buying, waiting for the trend to rise. The support below can refer to the 3062 and 3035 positions of the US market retracement on Wednesday to continue to be bullish, and make effective buy orders above these positions respectively. If it breaks, wait for the next support position to continue buying. As long as these two positions are maintained, the short-term bullish trend will remain unchanged.
Operation ideas:
Buy short-term gold at 3062-3065, stop loss at 3053, target at 3090-3100;
Sell short-term gold at 3133-3136, stop loss at 3145, target at 3100-3080;
Key points:
First support level: 3073, second support level: 3062, third support level: 3050
First resistance level: 3100, second resistance level: 3116, third resistance level: 3136
