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9.5 Gold short-term operation strategyGold lacks direction in high-range wash Yesterday's gold trend once again proved that it is in a high-range oscillation pattern. As we imagined, gold first fell to test around 2472 and then received buying support, starting a rebound rhythm. The overnight US July job vacancy report dropped sharply, stimulating gold to continue to rise to test around 2500, and it is still running at a high level. Next, the market will focus on non-agricultural employment data, and the market hopes to get information from the Federal Reserve on the extent of the interest rate cut. At present, the high-range adjustment is obvious, with support around 2475 and resistance around 2527. The pressure point to watch during the day is the 2500 mark. If we stand above this level, we will continue to look at the opportunity of 2510-20. Otherwise, there is a possibility of a pullback under pressure. There is really no good idea. It is recommended to wait and see. From the analysis chart, 2507 is a big pressure. Now it is a bottoming out. Bulls pay attention to the small support of 2488. Today we will consider long opportunities at this position. If the bulls reach 2507, consider shorting. Note that it is only considered in the Asian session. If the European and American sessions go anywhere, the position may be broken. Today's idea is that both long and short positions can be taken. It is very important to find the rhythm and position. Support is around 2471-2473, small support is 2488, pressure is 2500 and 2507, and the watershed of strength and weakness in the market is 2493
TVC:GOLDShort
by David_strategy
1
9.5 Gold short-term operation strategy1: US debt. Since 2022, out of concern about US debt, central banks around the world have chosen to increase their gold holdings to balance the structure of foreign exchange reserves. In the past two years, the amount of gold purchased has doubled, and the scale is still expanding. 2: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates. After the interest rate cut, more US dollar liquidity will be provided to the market, and more funds will return to the gold market, which has never happened in the rise of gold in the past two years. 3: Risk hedging. As the best risk hedging tool, gold will increase significantly in asset allocation during the economic downturn. China is the largest consumer of gold. For every 10% drop in gold prices, China's gold demand will increase by 16%. Once gold falls sharply in September, the central bank may return to the market with a large number of orders. Regarding the theory of US economic recession, there have been whistleblowers one after another since August. The plunge in global stock markets on August 2 was Sam's Law, and the plunge in the Nikkei 225 index on Tuesday this week, and the decline in gold/crude oil all triggered the recession indicator of US economist Rosenberg. At this stage, the recession of the US economy is still in the imagination stage. The US August employment report will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on September 6. The market is overreacting to the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July. Once the unemployment rate rises in August, it may trigger the reduction of arbitrage trading funds and cause market stampede. Before that, the US will release the August ADP employment data today. The previous value was 125,000, and the market estimated 145,000. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 31 will be announced at 20:30. The previous value was 231,000, which was not much different from the estimated 230,000. This is just the appetizer. The hard dish is the US non-farm employment data on Friday. Last month, the global market avalanche was triggered by the non-farm data. The sharp decline in non-farm data last month should be bullish for gold, but the market trend suddenly turned from the expected Fed rate cut to the US economic recession, causing indiscriminate panic selling. This time everyone's eyes are on the non-farm data. Today, we will pay more attention to the changes in the technical structure. The data only serves as a guide. Emotions will be reflected in the price in advance. On Wednesday, the gold price accelerated its decline in the European session, falling from a low of $2495 to $2471, a drop of nearly $25, but the continuity was extremely poor. The US session recovered and returned to the $2500 line. In recent times, the gold price has been on a roller coaster ride, and basically there is little continuity. After a sharp drop, there is a sharp rise, and after a sharp rise, there is a sharp drop. This morning, the price was at $2498. After the rebound in the US session last night, it closed above the support point of 2491. The upper pressure is still collectively at $2507. The break of this position will temporarily end this round of small-scale adjustment. From the 1-hour structure, the price rebounded after two dips to the 2470 USD line, forming a staged double bottom. There are two positions above that are of particular interest. One is the 2500 USD line with the pressure of 2507 USD as the boundary, that is, to hold 2506-07 and continue the weak shock. The support below is 2491. Only when it is lost here can it be opened for the second time. In addition, if the rebound is strong and breaks through 2507 USD, the rebound will further continue to the range of 2512-14. The rebound here should pay attention to the decline after the rapid pullback. Don't chase the market in the past few days. If you see a rise, you will have more callbacks. If you see a fall, you will often be shorted. If you see a rise, you will look for pressure positions to go short. If you see a fall, you will look for support positions to go long. Don't treat the box shock as a unilateral one. Therefore, my idea for gold today is to continue to look for a decline with 2507 Qingyuan as the pressure. First, pay attention to 2492 below, followed by 2485 USD and 2485 USD. The formation of this unilateral market will be postponed to the non-agricultural data tomorrow night or the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on September 17. Before that, it will mainly be a roller coaster wash.
TVC:GOLD
by David_strategy
1
78 Close the position with a profit of 13 points. Look for the s1: Fundamentals, the market is waiting for data, and the trend of waiting for data is very obvious. The Asian market is basically dominated by fluctuations; waiting for European market data, because the data will wash the market, and pierce, the trend of hitting stop loss makes the account and trading very difficult; We can only wait for the data for 1-2 hours to see whether the market is stable, 2: Technical aspects: A: In the small cycle, 1 hour, 30 minutes, it tends to the range of 2480-2500. In the range, you can take 2500-2495 short, and the following 2480-2485 range is long, and do small ranges; B: 4 hours, the pattern oscillates downward, and the indicator oscillates upward. This is a contradiction. To solve this contradictory signal, there is only a wash up and down, and finally a certain degree of direction; 2470 is currently a double support, buying support, and will not break for the time being; unless capital selling knocks out the long buying at 2470; C: In the daily K, the indicator crosses downward, which is a bearish signal, so short selling can be adopted, but 2470 has not been broken, and it needs external stimulation to break 2470; the high point pressure in the short term is around 2530, which is also the watershed position of the trend; To sum up: short-term intraday short-term small range 2500-2495 short, 2480-2485 range long; US market 8:30 data, it is recommended to avoid; avoid risks, let the trend go by itself, there will be data on Thursday and Friday; after this week, the trend will be clear; in the vague trend, it is not recommended to force and force long and short exchanges
TVC:GOLDLong
by David_strategy
1
9.4 Gold short-term operation strategyGold 2480 broke as expected. The US dollar rose 0.26% during the week, hitting a two-week high of 101.9. Affected by the surge in the US dollar index, the price of gold hit a new low of more than a week to around 2473 yesterday. However, the poor performance of the US ISM manufacturing PMI data dragged down the US bond yields, providing support for the gold price. It rebounded slightly in the late trading, and the daily line closed with a small negative column with a long upper and lower lead. The market is waiting for the US non-farm employment data, which may determine the scale of the possible interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting. After the US holiday on Monday, gold finally broke out on Tuesday, breaking through 2480 all the way during the session and reaching the 2473 line. As we said, the market reached 2480. The 2502 short order given yesterday was basically the highest short order of the day, and once won 22 points of profit. The recent market is actually a market for making money. As long as gold rebounds, you can short it. The current price is more stimulated by the news, and it will not be supported for long. At present, 2480 has been broken. The area of ​​2473-74 is a strong support. If it breaks down, it will go to the 2460 line. Based on the current trend, there is still a high probability. The 4-hour trend shows that the downward channel has been opened. If it rebounds around 2500 today, you can participate in short orders. Detailed intraday operation strategy: Short at 2505, defend at 2513, target 2490-2480 Buy at 2480, defend at 2473, target 2500-2505
TVC:GOLDShort
by David_strategy
1
9.4 Analysis of Short-term Gold OperationsThe U.S. market broke the bottom and reversed, with three negative daily lines, and the price completely broke the short-term 5-day and 10-day moving averages. 2490 did not hold, but this decline was not restless either. 1. They all fell first in the Asian market. 2. The European market is still rebounding and rising, forming an illusion of support. 3. The U.S. market fell 6-8 points before the intraday low, and the drop at this point basically determined the U.S. market to retreat. 4. The U.S. market continued to counterattack the 2502 line, which was considered a shock. It broke the intraday decline and rebounded 618, and also broke the top-bottom conversion level. 5. After the US market broke through the bottom, the difference was slightly 2470-1, the previous low. 6. It pulled back upward in the early morning, touching the intraday drop of 618 at the 2494 line. From this we can see several points: (1), it fell in a cycle in the morning. (2) Oscillating retracement, the strength of the rebound is also OK. Although the decline is large, it can be closed up, and it is not an extremely weak decline. (3) The daily rhythm is three Yin, reaching the edge of the maximum correction. Today's market should turn positive. This pattern, if there is a swallowing decline, the overall weakness will be weak, but this constitutes that it should still be a bull wash. Therefore, in terms of operation: You can get rid of the cycle and bet on the retracement first. The resistance level is 2492, which is the 618 position of yesterday's decline and rebound. If it breaks 2502, it will lose money and look at the 2483-4 line. Pay attention to two points: if it falls in the morning, you should sell in the afternoon. In addition, if the morning does not fall to the target level, it will break the high in the afternoon and the short will be evacuated. There will be a cycle in the afternoon, and the European session will rise. If the cycle in the afternoon is stuck, if it touches the 2483-4 line, it will be long, and the loss will be 73. Look for the intraday European session to pull up. The extreme retracement long position is 2481.5, which is the 618 position of the rebound and rise. But if the market resists the decline in the morning, it will be more aggressive in the afternoon, and the market will be above 2500.
TVC:GOLD
by David_strategy
1
9.3 Gold short-term operation strategyAt the beginning of the Asian session on Tuesday (September 3), spot gold 4 hovered below the 2500 mark and is currently trading around 2495 US dollars per ounce. Due to the strengthening of the US dollar, the price of gold fell to the lowest point in more than a week near 2489 on Monday, but then rebounded to around 2507 yuan and closed at 2499, with a small negative column with upper and lower leads on the daily line. During the US holiday, the overall volatility of gold was small yesterday, and the intraday short-term was still dominated by fluctuations. Although the gold price fell below the 2493 support during the day, it quickly recovered, but the rebound strength was still weak, especially the hourly line. After a small rebound in the white plate, it fell all the way, with basically no rebound strength. In the morning, it came to 2495 again. This trend, from the perspective of the day, will definitely continue to decline, and 2480 is expected to be reached. Gold is now in a multiple top structure above, and the trend of the hourly line is obviously falling. The gold short has not ended yet. The rebound of gold is an opportunity for the short. Gold is now building a top structure. Once formed, the decline of gold has just begun. Today, we are still shorting near the rebound of 2505, which is the starting point of the hourly line decline. Detailed intraday operation strategy: Short gold at 2505, defense 2512, target 2490-2480
TVC:GOLDShort
by David_strategy
2
9.3 Gold short-term operation strategyGold fluctuates to welcome non-farm payrolls Gold fell in the Asian session on Monday, rebounded in the European session in the afternoon, rebounded slightly in the US session in the evening, closed early in the morning, and finally made profits twice. The daily line closed with a small cross Yin pattern. The daily line has been mainly oscillating in recent times Gold bottomed out and rebounded in the Asian session on Tuesday. The 4H closed with a small Yin at 10 o'clock. From the current pattern, gold still has the momentum to fall. In terms of operation, pay attention to the 2480-2482 range. Go long for the first time it touches and look for a rebound. Other positions are arranged on the spot. Today's PMI data will also be focused on On September 3, the upward point is 2480-2482, long, protect 2474, and target 2490, 2498 Downward point is 2510-2512, short, protect 2515, target 2500 2495
TVC:GOLD
by David_strategy
1
9.2 Gold short-term operation strategyGold fluctuates, short-term bullish ideas remain unchanged Today is currently successful. Due to the Labor Day in the United States, the market fluctuates in the range of 2490-2508. Go long in the morning and leave with a profit of 4 points. In terms of trend, the overall trend is still short-term bullish. After falling back, it stands on 2500 again. Bulls are dominant. Short-term bullish operations are still in place. Go long around 2496, stop loss at 2488, and stop profit at 2508-2516. Pay attention to risks. Trading ideas: Go long around 2496, stop loss at 2488, and profit at 2508/2516 The above suggestions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for trading
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by David_strategy
2
Gold short-term operation analysis suggestionsGold fluctuated and rose under the speech of Fed Chairman Powell, rising from 2504 all the way to 2516, an increase of 12 points, and then consolidated and tested back and forth, but failed to reach the resistance point of 2520. Powell made it very clear in his statement that inflation is falling. In addition, the Fed believes that inflation will continue to fall and employment has not been adversely affected. Powell wanted the market to know that the Fed was not behind the curve. By clarifying the possibility of a rate cut in September, Powell is actually cutting interest rates a month in advance. The timing of the first cut is clear, and the magnitude is still in suspense. I don't think the Fed will suddenly cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Slow and steady is the way the Fed hopes to implement easing policies in the early stages. Resistance level 2520 2530 2550 Support level 2505 2500 2490
TVC:GOLDLong
by David_strategy
8.22 Gold Operation AnalysisGold fluctuated and fell during the European session after the release of the US weekly jobless claims data on August 17. It has now fallen below the support line of the lower Bollinger band of 2485. The data is lower than expected. Gold should have been bullish, but it fell instead of rising. For this situation, my personal analysis is that the bulls may be accumulating momentum to fall back and rush higher. The long-term trend of gold is definitely rising, but it will inevitably fluctuate and consolidate in the medium term. Key resistance levels are 2498, 2512, 2522, and 2530. Key support levels are 2483, 2473, 2463, and 2450.
TVC:GOLDLong
by David_strategy
8.2 Analysis of gold trend operationAfter hitting the peak of 2530 on the 20th, gold fluctuated at a high level and finally quickly pulled back. Currently, it is 2505 points. Yesterday, gold failed to hit 2530 several times. The last time it hit 30, it quickly fell back. This also shows that the bulls may continue to hit the high point after the pullback. The key downward support point is 2500. If it falls below 2500, look at 2490 / 2480 below. Resistance points are 2520, 2530, and 2550. What do you think about gold? Welcome to like and comment.
TVC:GOLDLong
by David_strategy
8.20 Gold Trend Analysis2500 Golden Era has officially stabilized and will move towards 2600 in the future Gold fluctuated and jumped from a low of 2486 to 2510 during the European session on Monday The bulls are still continuing today. Currently, the gold price is trading at a high of 2523. On the Bollinger Bands, gold is below the middle track. The hammer line is long. If it touches the bottom, it can be bullish In addition to the geopolitical situation, everyone is currently pinning their hopes on the trend of gold on Friday when Fed Chairman Powell will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting Support level 2515 2510 2500 Resistance level 2525 2535 2550
TVC:GOLDShort
by David_strategy
Analysis of gold trend on August 16If you only make orders based on data and don’t understand the market logic behind it, your transactions will always be slower than before. From the 4-hour chart, gold has also reached the middle Bollinger Band and the downward trend is more obvious. Referring to international information, the support power of gold in the later period is obviously insufficient. The US dollar seems to be rising strongly. Gold is currently in high volatility. Personal Operation Analysis 2440 Buy 2455 Take Profit Stop Loss 2435 2463 Short selling 2450 Take profit Stop loss 2470
TVC:GOLD
by David_strategy
8.15 Gold Trend AnalysisThe newly released industrial unemployment claims and retail sales did not meet expectations, which led to a significant negative impact on gold. Gold fell from 2469 to 2450 in an instant. This also happened to apply the short-selling stop-profit signal I sent in the group to be set at 2450. In the data released in the past two days, gold has been mainly shorted, which also happened to be in line with the predictions of me and my team In the future, I will also release the latest news every day. I hope everyone will pay more attention to the comments I wish everyone can make their own profits in the market If you have order losses and are not familiar with the market, please pay attention to me
TVC:GOLD
by David_strategy
8.15 Can the gold trend reach a new high?My personal outlook for gold in the future is that the price is expected to rise to a new high. The US dollar and earnings will continue to fall But there may be deviations in the short term! You can also consider shorting at high levels! With the positive CPI data released yesterday, gold should have created a new high, but it quickly fell back, causing gold to fall by 1.5%. This also allowed us to quickly seize the opportunity for short-term trading and quickly exit with profits! I personally suspect that the situation last night was that big investors were using data to ship goods. They sold heavily when traders entered the market yesterday, causing gold to fall rapidly! As for the data released tonight, retail sales, industrial production, and the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in August are important data for whether gold can stand on a new high, which will be a new trading opportunity! If it is weaker than expected, the US dollar will continue to fall, while gold will rise all the way At the same time, we will also make preparations for both situations
TVC:GOLD
by David_strategy
Analysis of gold market trend on August 15 (Thursday)From a long-term perspective, there is a lot of room for gold to rise! Yesterday's CPI data was lower than expected. Gold was slightly bullish but plummeted 1% from a peak of 2476 to 2437 and closed at 2447. In early trading today, gold fluctuated within a narrow range, with slight signs of recovery compared to yesterday. It is currently fluctuating at 2453. In addition, there are several factors that you must consider! 1 Political situation in the Middle East: Tensions between Iran and Israel may have eased recently, and conflicts between Ukraine and Russia may further intensify. 2 The U.S. interest rate cut in September is a certainty, whether it will be 25% or 50% The motivation for gold’s rise today on the daily chart is a bit lacking Support level 2448 2438 2420 Resistance level 2460 2467 2480
TVC:GOLDLong
by David_strategy
7 Dimension 1:8 RR Sell Idea for GOLD Core Analysis Method Smart Money Concepts 😇 7 Dimension Analysis Time Frame: 15 min 1: Swing Structure: Bearish with CHOCH after taking inducement. The impulsive swing move is finished and now moving towards the decisional OB as a pullback, about to mitigate the decisional POI OB at the initial point of the premier zone. We will take a sell entry using the classic SMC entry model. After the breakout, this is also a CIP area. 2: Pattern 🟢 CHART PATTERNS Reversal: V-shape pattern indicating possible reversal from here and a rectangle pattern is also observed. Shakeout. 🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS Not any significant candle pattern observed except for a tower top. 3: Volume 🟢 A big difference is seen during the impulsive move and the correction move in terms of volume. No buy-side volume indicates another sharp sell move is expected. 4: Momentum RSI 🟢 Fully intact in the bearish zone, taking resistance at the 60 level, indicating another range shift. This impulsive move ended as loud moves, which is a very strong signal for a sell. Also, a Grandfather-Father-Son entry with H4 as GF. 5: Volatility Bollinger Bands 🟢 Very tight contraction just started, indicating a strong squeeze breakout and walking on the band. A headfake also took place right at the upper band, and a BB W pattern is observed. 6: Strength ADX Right now, totally sideways. 7: Rating: ⭐⭐⭐ 50% Probity (because of the decisional OB entry) ✔️ Entry Time Frame: 15M ✅ Entry TF Structure: Bearish CHOCH ☑️ POI: Decisional OB 💡 Decision: Sell limit 🚀 Entry: 2419 ✋ Stop loss: 2429.5 🎯 Take profit: 23.4 😊 Risk to reward Ratio: 1:8 🕛 Expected Duration: 1 day SUMMARY: The analysis indicates a sell position based on Smart Money Concepts methodology, with structure, patterns, volume, momentum, volatility, strength, and sentiment all pointing towards a bearish move.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Optimum369