Go long when the trend reverses, beware of black swansYesterday's pullback to 3313-3310 confirmed the upward trend of gold. As I expected, it broke through the resistance of 3330 and touched around 3345. Currently, the short-term strong resistance is at 3345. Only by breaking through this resistance can gold maintain its upward trend. If it is blocked near the 3345 line in the short term, there is a possibility of a pullback. If 3345 breaks, there will be 3365 and 3400 above. Once the direction is clear, it will be easier to act. If there is a pullback during the day, it will give us a trading opportunity to enter the long position.
OANDA:XAUUSD
Goldprice
The real action begins around 3349–3352!🚨 Market Watch – Reversal Zone Ahead! 🚨
The market is moving up with strong momentum, eyeing the 3346 liquidity level, where buy-side orders are likely to be swept.
But the real action begins around 3349–3352 a key selling zone where institutional sellers may step in. This area could act as a major resistance, setting the stage for a potential reversal or pullback.
📉 If price shows signs of rejection here, it could be a smart opportunity for short setups. However, always stay sharp and let the price action guide your move.
📌 DYOR (Do Your Own Research)
⚠️ This is not financial advice just market insight. Trade responsibly.
Gold is fluctuating. Can it break through?Since the price of gold rose to 3500 on April 22 and encountered resistance and fell back, it has shown a triangular convergence and fluctuation trend so far. From the short-term trend, after the decline adjustment on Tuesday, it bottomed out and rebounded on Wednesday to close with a positive line, and on Thursday it completed the shock consolidation with a small positive line. The current moving average system is in an intertwined state, and the short-term market tends to fluctuate.
Today, we need to pay attention to the resistance of the 3340-3345 range. This position is a high point concentration area that has suppressed the upward movement of gold prices many times in the early stage. If the gold price breaks through this range, the bullish trend is expected to continue.
From the current trend, after the gold price bottomed out and rebounded, it formed a short-term support at 3310. Secondly, we need to pay attention to the support strength near the low point of 3282 on Tuesday. In terms of operation, it is still necessary to operate around the range.
Operation strategy:
Short when the price rebounds to around 3345, stop loss at 3355, profit range 3320-3300
Long when the price falls back to around 3310, stop loss at 3300, profit range 3320-3340
XAUUSD - 4H Bearish Rejection from Supply Zone | SMC AnalysisGold is showing signs of weakness after reacting strongly from a 4H Supply Zone around the 3331.72 level. Price tapped into the red supply zone, failed to break above, and is now forming lower highs — suggesting bearish momentum is building.
🔍 Key SMC Observations:
Supply Zone: Price rejected the 3331.72 level, which acted as a clear supply area based on past liquidity grabs and bearish institutional moves.
Change of Character (CHoCH): We saw a CHoCH around July 5th–6th, indicating a shift from bullish to bearish order flow.
Lower High Formation: Price failed to make a new high after tapping supply, showing signs of distribution.
Imbalance + Target Zone: Clean imbalance exists down to 3288.73 and potentially to the green demand zone around 3260–3270.
📍Trade Setup Idea:
Sell Opportunity: If price continues to reject the supply zone, look for bearish confirmation on the lower timeframes (e.g., 1H) to enter.
Target 1 (TP1): 3288.73 (near-term liquidity level)
Target 2 (TP2): 3260–3270 demand zone
Invalidation: A break and close above 3331.72 would invalidate the short-term bearish bias.
🔴 Watch for reaction around 3288.73 – if it holds, expect a possible bounce. If broken, further downside is likely.
Night range operation, technical outlook is still bearishGold fell as expected after repeated battles at 3330. Currently, gold has returned to around 3320. This shows that the rebound was mainly driven by short-term risk aversion. As market news calms down and sentiment stabilizes, the market will most likely return to the technical trend. If it unexpectedly breaks through 3330, it is expected to touch the 3345 line I mentioned this morning. The short-term 3310 line currently has certain support. From a technical point of view, I prefer to short. Once it falls below 3310, the subsequent support will move to 3295-3285. Therefore, I think it is a good choice to short again at 3320-3330.
OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold Rejected at 3329.5, Profit-Taking Pressure Rises📊 Market Overview:
Gold surged to 3329.5, approaching key resistance, but quickly dropped to 3319.8 due to strong selling pressure, signaling short-term profit-taking. It’s now slightly recovering and trading around 3321.
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Key Resistance: 3329 – 3335
• Nearest Support: 3308 – 3285
• EMA 09: Price remains above EMA 09 → uptrend still intact.
• Candlestick / Volume / Momentum: H1 candle shows long upper wick at resistance. High volume at the top suggests profit-taking activity.
📌 Outlook:
Gold may continue a short-term correction if it fails to break above 3330 decisively. Bulls need to hold 3308 to maintain the upward structure.
💡 Suggested Trading Strategy:
🔻 SELL XAU/USD : 3330 – 3333
🎯 TP: 40/80/200 pips
❌ SL: 3336
🔺 BUY XAU/USD at: 3302 – 3305
🎯 TP: 40/80/200 pips
❌ SL: 3399
Gold at Critical Juncture as Bearish Momentum GrowsGold is showing signs of breaking down as the US dollar recovers from a steep decline. Gold and the dollar typically have an inverse relationship over the longer term. The precious metal has been trading sideways since April, but more importantly, it has been trending lower since mid-June. Gold is now approaching a critical juncture, testing an uptrend established in mid-May. Although it has previously held this support level, gold appears likely to break lower this time.
The Trend Lower Is Strengthening
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now trending steadily lower, forming a series of lower highs. This suggests that gold’s momentum is currently bearish, indicating potential for continued weakness in the days ahead. To reverse this bearish momentum and shift to a bullish outlook, the RSI would need to rise firmly above 50.
More significantly, gold is now very close to breaking a significant uptrend at $3,300, which was previously tested on June 27 and June 30. On both occasions, the price dipped intraday below this trendline but managed to close above it. The trendline was retested on 8 July, initially holding, but gold is dipping below this critical support level again on 9 July. A close below the trendline on July 9, followed by continued declines starting on July 10, would confirm that the uptrend has broken. This breakdown would signal further downside risk, with initial support at $3,230, followed by $3,170.
Triple Top
Perhaps even more crucially, a triple-top pattern established at the $3,400 becomes increasingly likely each time gold trends lower. The $3,170 support level is particularly significant because it forms the neckline of this triple-top pattern. A decisive break below $3,170 would confirm the triple top pattern and indicate a deeper decline, potentially targeting the range between $2,950 and $3,000.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
Bearish is still the main trend, first test 3250 supportYesterday, as the market expected a trade agreement to be reached between the US and its trading partners, risk sentiment was boosted. The strengthening of DXY and the rise in US Treasury yields put some pressure on gold.
On Monday, gold rebounded to 3320, and on Tuesday it touched above 3320 and began to fall sharply. In the short term, 3320 is a key trading position that we need to pay attention to. From the daily chart, the support line of 3320 has been completely broken, and the two major support points below are 3250 and 3200 respectively. Judging from the 4H chart, the decline may have just begun. Next, we may first face a test of the 3250 support line. If the 3250 support can be maintained, gold will maintain a volatile consolidation in the short term. Otherwise, if it falls below 3250, it will test the 3200 mark.
OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold fluctuates, continue to short at 3345 during the dayTrump's trade policy continues to stimulate risk aversion. Although the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes are neutral, they can potentially provide support for gold. Yesterday we gave the short positions of 3321 and 3333, which have generated profits so far. At the same time, it should be noted that the 4H MACD indicator has the potential demand to form a golden cross. In the short term, there is a certain suppression force at 3330-3335. If the Asian and European sessions repeatedly test this position but fail to break through effectively, you can go short without hesitation. If you want to go short again during the day, you can consider 3340-3345 and defend 3350. The lower 3310-3305 is a relatively strong support area during the day. If the Asian session retreats to this point, you can consider going long, with the target looking at 3330-3335.
OANDA:XAUUSD
Perfect prediction, pay attention to the high short entry pointTrump extended the tariff agreement to August 1 and began to collect tariffs again. Although it eased market tensions, his remarks will not be extended after the expiration, and he issued a tariff threat, which increased global trade uncertainty and pushed up risk aversion. There was no clear direction coming out of the Fed's meeting minutes last night, but the potential bias was bullish.
At the beginning of the Asian session this morning, I also indicated that gold would rise and then fall. At present, it has reached the highest point near 3325 and then began to retreat, but the 4H golden cross has just been formed. There is still a certain pressure above 3333. If the gold price repeatedly competes for this position, we can continue to short without hesitation. The second short position today is near 3340-3345. There is potential momentum for the bulls in the short term. If the European session continues to fluctuate below 3333, then the entry of short positions will be slightly more stable. Yesterday, short orders were given at the key points of 3321 and 3333, and TP looked at 3310. If the bulls re-emerge below 3310-3305, you can consider short-term long positions and target 3330-3335.
The decline in gold prices has not stopped. Do you know what to
Gold did not provide a better position to go long during the day, but continued to fluctuate, and was under pressure at 3330 many times. The short-term suppression was obvious, and the increase was limited. It is expected to usher in a decline today. Consider short-term short operations, pay attention to shorts near 3326, stop loss at 3334, and take profit at 3300. Pay attention to risks.
Short-term trading of gold in the evening of July 10: shorts near 3326, stop loss at 3334, take profit at 3306
Gold continues to short
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Gold, on the eve of the US market yesterday, the shorts repeatedly touched the lower support of 3282, but ultimately lacked the momentum to make a final push, which led to a reverse reversal in the US market and a continuous rebound effect. As of the morning of the day, the highest reached near 3326, and the daily line also closed at the bald small positive line of the lower lead. The current upper pressure is maintained at the previous 3330 line. This position will also be related to the continuity of the long and short positions in the later period, and the highest in the morning will also be maintained near this position. For the European market, this position is even more important. Once it continues to break through, the US market will likely continue to rise, and it can also be used as the position of the long and short watershed in the short term, and the recent trend continuity is extremely high. , most of them are maintained in the range of shock operation, and the support below will be maintained at 3310, which is also the key defensive point of the European session. Although the daily line is currently closed at a small positive line, it is still obviously insufficient in power, and the multi-hour line is also maintained in the downward channel without a breakthrough. In the short term, it is still in a bearish situation overall. If there is no breakthrough for a long time, it may continue to fall in the later period. If gold rebounds near the morning high, it can continue to short. If the European session breaks through strongly, it needs to adjust its direction before the US session. If gold rebounds near 3325-26, it can be shorted. The target is around 3310-00, and the loss is 3335!
Gold rebounds near 3325-26 during the day, and the target is around 3310-00, and the loss is 3335.
XAUUSD Loses Short-Term Support – Deeper Decline May FollowAt the current moment, gold (XAUUSD) has made a significant breakout, surpassing the key resistance zone at 3,326 USD and is now trading around 3,328.94 USD. This breakout confirms that the short-term bullish trend remains strong.
1. Short-Term Trend: Bullish Momentum Expands
After holding the key support zone around 3,311 – 3,315 USD (aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement), XAUUSD bounced back and broke above the previous high at 3,326 USD. The current uptrend is confirmed by higher lows and a clear breakout candle from the recent consolidation.
2. Updated Support and Resistance Zones:
Immediate Support: 3,318 – 3,320 USD, near the rising yellow trendline and breakout retest zone.
Next Resistance Target: No clear barrier on the 15-min chart, but psychological levels and Fibonacci extensions suggest 3,332 – 3,335 USD could act as the next upside targets.
3. Price Action Highlights:
The breakout candle closed strongly above the 3.618 Fibonacci extension level (3,326.26 USD), showing solid buying pressure.
A bullish signal ("B") from LuxAlgo was triggered near the minor pullback at 3,318 USD, adding further confirmation.
4. Key Technical Signals:
Price has broken out of the purple rectangle consolidation zone, expanding its trading range.
The 0.618 Fibonacci level at 3,311.78 USD continues to act as firm support.
The ascending yellow trendline remains intact, providing dynamic support to the bullish trend.
5. Suggested Trading Strategy:
Buy on Pullback: Consider long positions around 3,318 – 3,320 USD if price retests this zone with bullish confirmation.
Breakout Continuation Buy: A firm close above 3,330 USD with high volume could signal a move toward 3,335 – 3,340 USD.
If price falls below 3,315 USD and closes weakly, the bullish momentum may begin to fade.
XAUUSD is in an extended bullish phase after breaching the 3,326 USD resistance. As long as price holds above the 3,318 – 3,320 USD zone, there is room for the uptrend to continue.
Do you think gold will break above 3,330 USD? Drop your thoughts in the comments and let’s discuss trading strategies together!
XAUUSD Idea: 4H Trendline First Breakout - Liquidity PlayFOREXCOM:XAUUSD
🔍 Analysis Overview:
Price has just broken above a 4H descending trendline for the first time. However, I remain cautious due to the following key observations:
📌 NOTES:
The broader market sentiment is still bearish due to recent tariff-related news, which often fuels risk-off behavior.
Historically, the first breakout of a strong trendline often fails, trapping early buyers.
This breakout is likely attracting buy-side liquidity, giving institutions an opportunity to hunt stops.
My observation shows buying interest started around the 3308–3313 range, suggesting smart money accumulation and a possible trap.
📉 I'm watching for a fake breakout and potential reversal targeting the liquidity zones marked below around 3307 and possibly lower.
The liquidity sweep below equal lows could offer a better risk-reward setup.
💡 Conclusion:
If price fails to hold above this breakout and shows signs of rejection, I will be anticipating a return towards the previous demand zone for a liquidity grab.
#XAUUSD #GoldAnalysis #SmartMoneyConcepts #LiquidityGrab #ForexTrading #TrendlineBreak #MarketPsychology #TradingSetup #SMC #PriceAction
Trump blasted Powell again. Interest rates remain unchanged.Information summary:
Trump blasted Powell on Wednesday, saying that the current interest rate is "at least 3 percentage points higher" and once again accused Fed Chairman Powell of "making the United States pay an extra $360 billion in refinancing costs each year." He also said that "there is no inflation" and that companies "are pouring into the United States," and urged the Fed to "cut interest rates."
During the U.S. trading session, gold also showed a significant rebound momentum, rebounding from a low of 3285 to above 3310 in one fell swoop. As of now, gold has stood above 3320.
Market analysis:
From the daily chart:
It can be seen that the first suppression position above gold is currently at 3325, followed by around 3345. Gold did not close above 3320 on Wednesday, which means that even if gold is currently above 3320, as long as today's daily line closes below 3320, it is still in a bearish trend. On the contrary, if the closing price today is above 3320, then the subsequent test of the suppression position near 3345 may be further carried out.
Secondly, from the 4-hour chart, the current suppression position above 4 hours is around 3330-3335. Therefore, today we should focus on this position. If we cannot stand firm and break through the range suppression here in the 4-hour chart, we may retreat again in the future. The key support position below is around 3310, which is the opening price today. If the price is to retreat, it is likely to fall below 3310. But it may also remain above 3310 for consolidation.
However, as long as it falls below 3310, I think the low point near 3285 may be refreshed, so pay attention to this.
Operation strategy:
Steady trading waits for 3310 to fall and break through to short, and the profit range is 3385 or even lower.
Aggressive trading can short near 3340, with a stop loss of 3350.
Gold Rebounds from 3283, Eyes 3315 Resistance📊 Market Overview:
• Gold dropped sharply to a low of $3283 earlier today before rebounding strongly back to around $3312, supported by renewed buying interest.
• The recovery is fueled by risk-off sentiment amid ongoing trade negotiation uncertainty and a mild pullback in the U.S. Dollar Index.
• Central bank buying continues to underpin gold’s base, despite mild pressure from rising U.S. bond yields.
________________________________________
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Key Resistance: $3315 – $3335
• Nearest Support: $3280
• EMA 09: Price is trading above the 9-period EMA, signaling a short-term bullish trend.
• Candle pattern / Momentum: A strong bullish engulfing candle formed after bouncing from $3283 on the H1 chart. MACD is crossing upward, and RSI is approaching the 60 level, suggesting bullish momentum.
________________________________________
📌 Outlook:
Gold may continue to recover in the short term if it holds above the $3300 level and successfully breaks through $3315 resistance. However, failure to break above this resistance could lead to a short-term pullback toward $3290–$3280.
________________________________________
💡 Suggested Trading Strategy:
🔻 SELL XAU/USD at: $3315–3325
🎯 TP: $3295
❌ SL: $3330
🔺 BUY XAU/USD at: $3285–3295
🎯 TP: $3315
❌ SL: $3280
Gold (XAUUSD) Trade Setup – Valid Until July 10, 2025This 15-minute chart shows a clean technical breakout from a falling channel. Here's how to interpret and potentially trade this move:
🧠 Context: What Just Happened
Price was locked inside a descending channel (blue) for multiple sessions.
A breakout occurred above the channel, indicating a potential short-term bullish reversal.
The bounce aligns with recent tariff-related headlines easing off and short-covering momentum building.
I trade these support and resistance lines daily on micro gold futures.
What these lines represent:
Golden Line: Heavy Support or Resistance depending on the price direction towards the lines for major reversal or $10-$15 swings.
Silver Lines: Consolidation areas or mid way support and resistance for a scalping few touches.
Bronze dotted lines: Low volume days support and resistance for a quick $5 up or down.
Also, I can see a directional setup. Here is a hypothetical scenario that could play out:
📌 Key Zones to Watch
🔼 Resistance $3,342 Next major target / sell zone
🟧 Resistance $3,319 Current breakout level retest
⚪ Support $3,307–$3,316 Minor consolidation area
🔻 Support $3,295–$3,289 Strong demand / invalidation
🚨 Bear Pivot $3,272 Break below = bearish return
🧭 Trading Playbook
Bullish Bias (Preferred Scenario)
✅ Break and hold above $3,319 = potential move to $3,342
🎯 Target: $3,340–$3,342
🔒 SL below: $3,307
Optional re-entry on retest of $3,316 zone
Bearish Reversal (If Bulls Fail)
⚠️ If price fails $3,319 and breaks back below $3,307, sellers may reclaim control
📉 Look for short setups toward $3,295 and even $3,272
SL above: $3,319
📌 Key Tip
Watch for volume confirmation and 5m candle closes at each level. Don’t chase — let price come to your levels.
⏳ Validity
This setup remains valid through July 10, or until $3,342 target is hit or $3,272 is broken.
This is not financial advice; it's for educational purposes only.
Gold rose. Trend reversed.Gold rose slightly in early Asian trading on Wednesday, but fell under pressure near 3308. It fluctuated in the European trading range of 3296-3282. It broke through the US trading range and rose to around 3317 in the late trading. The daily line closed with a positive line with a lower shadow.
After a sharp drop on Tuesday, gold showed a downward recovery trend on Wednesday and closed positive. It rose slightly in early Asian trading today. From the daily level, in the short term, we should first pay attention to the resistance near 3325-3330. This area brings together the current positions of the 5-day moving average, the 10-day moving average and the 60-day moving average, which is an important gateway for the game between long and short forces in the short term. If the gold price continues to be under pressure in this area, it means that the short-term upward momentum is insufficient, and we need to be alert to the risk of a market decline.
If the above resistance area can be broken and the price continues to rise strongly, the next target will be the resistance near 3345, which is not only the high point on Tuesday, but also the current location of the 20-day moving average and the 30-day moving average, which has a strong technical resistance significance.
In terms of support below, first pay attention to the support near 3280, which is the current support level of the trend line formed by the low points of May 15 and June 30, which provides certain support for the gold price.
Operation strategy:
Short at price rebound near 3345, stop loss at 3355, profit range 3320-3300
Long at price drop near 3315, stop loss at 3305, profit range 3320-3340
Gold Drops to 3,284 – Short-Term Support at Risk📊 Market Overview
Gold fell sharply this morning to $3,284/oz amid a modest USD rebound and profit-taking pressure following several range-bound sessions. The lack of fresh catalysts also contributed to weaker momentum.
📉 Technical Analysis
• Key Resistance: 3,315 – 3,330
• Nearest Support: 3,280 – 3,275
• EMA 09: Price is currently trading below the EMA 09 on both the H1 and H4 timeframes → short-term bearish signal
• Candle Patterns & Momentum:
– H1 candle shows a bearish engulfing pattern near the 3,305 area → confirms downward pressure
– RSI is below 45, MACD has crossed below its signal line → bearish momentum dominant
– If the 3,275 level is breached, gold could continue to fall toward 3,260
📌 Outlook
Gold is leaning toward further downside unless it can hold above the 3,280 support level during today’s session.
💡 Trade Strategy
🔻 SELL XAU/USD at: 3,295 – 3,398
🎯 TP: 40/80/200 PIPS
❌ SL: 3,305
🔺 BUY XAU/USD at: 3,275 – 3,278
🎯 TP: 40/80/200 PIPS
❌ SL: 3,269
7.9 Latest gold trend analysis and operation layout📰 News information:
1. Federal Reserve meeting minutes
📈 Technical Analysis:
Our decision to close our positions at 3305 yesterday was undoubtedly a very strategic one. After reaching a high of around 3310 last night, it began to fall. At the same time, I also gave VIP members the news that it might fall back to around 3300. Since the opening, the lowest point has reached around 3285. The overall trend is still under our control.
At present, gold will still usher in technical corrections in the short term. The current price of 3293-3290 support can be considered for long positions. If the European session continues to fall below the low, you can try to go short during the NY session. If the European session continues to maintain sideways consolidation, you can consider retreating and going long during the NY session. As long as the key support of 3250 below is held, gold will maintain its consolidation trend in short-term trading. On the contrary, once it falls below 3250, gold may directly touch the 3200 mark. Focus on the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, which may further influence the trend of gold.
🎯 Trading Points:
BUY 3293-3290-3285
TP 3305-3310-3320
In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, facing your mistakes, and exercising strict self-discipline. I share free trading strategies and analysis ideas every day for reference by brothers. I hope my analysis can help you.
Don’t chase shorts when gold is at a low level, wait for a rebou
From the 4-hour analysis, today's upper short-term resistance focuses on the hourly top and bottom conversion position near 3318-24. The intraday rebound relies on this position to go short once and look down. The lower short-term support focuses on the vicinity of 3280. The overall support relies on the 3280-3325 area to maintain the main tone of high-altitude low-multiple cycles. In the middle position, watch more and move less, and follow orders cautiously, and wait patiently for key points to enter the market.
Gold operation strategy:
Gold 3285-3287 line long, stop loss 3277, target 3315-23 line, break and continue to hold
Data is about to be released. Where will gold go?Yesterday, the market expected a trade agreement between the United States and its trading partners, which boosted risk sentiment, and the strengthening of the US dollar and the rise in US bond yields further added pressure on gold prices. Gold fell 1% during the day and once lost the $3,300 mark during the session.
After gold bottomed out and stabilized at 3,320 on Monday, it fell sharply above 3,320 again on Tuesday and has now completely fallen below 3,320. The position of 3,320 is very important. In the 3,320-50 range, it chose to break down at 3,320 again.
Today, the Federal Open Market Committee of the United States will release the minutes of the June monetary policy meeting. Although Federal Reserve Chairman Powell remained neutral on the June interest rate decision, many Federal Reserve officials released dovish signals. Federal Reserve Board member Bowerman has turned to support the possibility of a rate cut in July.
From a technical point of view, the market has penetrated into the area around the lower support of 3,275-3,295.
The rhythm of the entire market is still a process of oscillating decline. From the perspective of pressure position, the daily MA5 average line has not fallen below, and may fall again to around 3270. Once the market falls too fast and approaches this position, there is a high probability that there will be a rebound demand.
Operation strategy:
Buy near 3375, stop loss at 3365, profit range 3315-3320.
Continue to hold position after breakthrough.