$USINTR -Fed Cuts Rates by 50 BPS ECONOMICS:USINTR
- The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 50bps to 4.75%-5% in light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks.
It is the first rate cut since March 2020 after holding it for more than a year at its highest level in two decades.
Will Feds decision of cutting 50bps tumble the markets in spite of fear for U.S and Global Markets indicating Recession brewing around the corner ?
Goldprice
9.19 Gold Short-term Operation StrategyThe Fed's interest rate decision will be announced in two hours. Will gold hit a new high or a correction?
On the 1-hour chart, you can see that there is a minor resistance level near the 2575 level, and there is also a downward trend line converging. If the price pulls back to this resistance level, sellers may intervene, aiming to fall to the 2548 support level. On the other hand, buyers want to see prices break higher to increase bullish bets and pursue new highs
, if the Fed eventually chooses to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the market may react quickly, causing the US dollar to rebound. But if the Fed is as dovish as the market expects, cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, and sends signals of more interest rate cuts in the future, the US dollar will weaken further, pushing gold prices higher again, even breaking through the $2,600/ounce mark. Although the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates, there is still uncertainty about the magnitude and subsequent policy guidance. If the rate cut is only 25 basis points, it may suppress the short-term demand for gold, and investors will turn to wait and see. If the Fed's policy tends to be cautious, the safe-haven demand for gold may weaken, leading to a short-term sell-off in the market. If the Fed eventually cuts interest rates significantly and signals further easing in the future, gold will benefit from the continued weakening of the dollar and break through historical highs. At the same time, global economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks will continue to provide long-term safe-haven demand support for gold.
Gold Fomc Movement Buy/SellGo through the analysis carefully, and do trade accordingly.
Resistance- 2589-2591
Resistance-2612-2616
Support- 2571-2565
Support-2551-2555
Support-2541-2545
Strong support area- 2531-2535
Gold Signal Daiky for the week
Current price- 2572.3
"if Price stays below 2600, then next target is 2564, 2552 and 2540 and above that 2605, 2618"
Advice-For Buying
Best buying area= 2535-2540
For selling
Best selling area= 2600-2616-2630
-POSSIBILITY-1
If 2561 break and sustain then you can sell gold with retest target will be 2545-2535
-POSSIBILITY-2
If it breaks 2591 and sustains then you can sell gold with retest target will be 2616-2630
SELL GOLD TODAY DUE TO FED 25bps CUT OVER 50bpsPrice will fall over today FED 25bps cut over 50bps high anticipation, Overbought Gold will fall from high to 2540 to 2520 level, God willing
2569-2575 SL 2583 (Trade till 2581)
2587-2592 SL 2603 (Trade till 2601)
2608-2613 SL 2627 (Trade till 2625)
GOD WILLING
Gold Price Analysis Ahead of FOMC September 18Fundamental Analysis
On the day of the Fed's announcement, markets continued to price in a 65% chance of a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut, CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed, reviving selling interest around the US dollar (USD), as US Treasury yields also turned defensive amid cautious markets.
As such. Gold prices are attempting to reclaim all-time highs just shy of $2,600, as attention turns to the Fed's decision, Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference and the Dot Plot, all of which will help gauge the US central bank's future policy actions.
If the Fed delivers a 25 basis point rate cut later this Wednesday, it could send the US dollar soaring. However, the immediate reaction to the Fed's announcements could be overshadowed by the implications of the Fed's projections and Powell's words. Therefore, gold prices are still subject to strong fluctuations in the Fed event.
Conversely, if the Fed acknowledges the potential risks to inflation and maintains a cautious tone, this could bring the hawks back into the game, negatively affecting the non-interest-bearing gold price.
Technical analysis
Gold is breaking the downside price band and approaching the resistance level around 2575. If it fails to break this zone before the US session, we can SELL and hold to 255x and 2545 when the FOMC announces to BUY back up and hold to 262x. In case of breaking the 2575 zone, we will not SELL and wait for the candle to close above 258x and BUY when the 2575 zone is retested. Hold until the FOMC does not break the new ATH, then we exit the order.
Breakout upper limit: 2582 - 2591 - 2603
Upper resistance: 2581 - 2590 - 2600 - 2605 - 2615 - 2626 - 2645
Breakout lower limit: 2570 - 2563 - 2550 - 2538
Support: 2572 - 2564 - 2552 - 2545 - 2539 - 2525 - 2516
Pay attention to the trend zone around 2580 above.
Sell the price zone 2603-2605. Stoploss 2609
Watch for BUY 2564 - 2562. Stoploss 2558
Watch for BUY 2545 - 2547. Stoploss 2541
9.18 Technical Analysis of Gold Short-term OperationsToday, the focus of the entire market is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. The market expects a 50 basis point cut, which may be the trigger for this wave of rise, but it may not have much impact at all.
Yesterday, the 2600 line was not kicked off, but fell back with a big negative.
Technical points:
(1) The European session bottomed out and rebounded, and the price continued to return to Monday's low, which broke our expectation of a strong and non-retracement.
(2) The European session continued to retreat to 2386, but still did not break the high. Yesterday, the focus was on the European session rising. If the European session fell, the market would turn to volatility.
(3) Before the US session, the intraday low continued to be broken, and the hourly line was negative, so the US session must be expected to fluctuate.
The European session broke the bottom for the second time, and the US session pulled back to short. It is expected that the US session will continue to break the bottom. After all, the price is good, and everyone is afraid that the long orders will be stuck at the top of the mountain, so they are willing to go short.
Operation strategy:
1. Before the meeting, continue to arrange according to the technical pattern. Short-term short position at 2575 can be shorted within the day, with a loss of 85, and look at 2555-50.
2. If it cannot be reached before the meeting, the price will remain the same. The Fed meeting will be closed for a break. If it can break the high before the meeting, hold it and look for a new high.
9.18 Gold Short-term Operation StrategyGold rebounded from a high level and built a top. Don't chase long easily. Gold rebound is an opportunity for shorts. The Fed's interest rate decision and the expectation of interest rate cuts are about to be fulfilled. The positive news for gold is fulfilled and it may rise and fall.
Gold broke down after repeated fluctuations at a high level in 1 hour. The top structure is obvious. The gold 1 hour moving average also began to turn around. The gold 1 hour moving average formed a dead cross, so there is more room for gold to fall and adjust. Gold rebounded last night but did not break through the resistance of 2582. In the morning, it continued to go short at highs under the resistance of 2582.
Strategy:
SELL: 2575 stop loss; 2582
GOLD H1 Analysis rate cuts decision today big move expected GOLD H1 Analysis rate cuts decision today big move expected
Sell Zone
Buy Zone
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Gold Price Analysis on 30-Minute TimeframeI'm currently watching the gold price closely on the 30-minute chart. If the price pulls back to the resistance and successfully breaks out, the next target could be the next resistance level.
Key levels to watch:
Resistance Level 1
Next Target (Resistance Level 2)
If the price consolidates and breaks above the current resistance, this could signal strong bullish momentum and a potential move to the next resistance level.
9.17 Technical Analysis of Gold Short-term OperationsGold prices did not fluctuate much during the day. It retreated to the lowest level of 2574.50 in the Asian session, and then turned positive and moved upward. However, the space has not been opened yet, and it is in the rhythm of range fluctuations. For the extremely strong trend in the past few days, the recent two days have been mainly corrections. At the same time, even if it retreats, it is difficult to have a continuous decline, so the European session continues to see a rebound.
Recently, the market has paid close attention to the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday, and there are different views on how much to reduce. Before the announcement, the market trend is more cautious, which means that it is difficult to have a large operating space.
Today's analysis
1. At present, in the process of consolidation at a high level, the ups and downs are high, and the space is difficult to open
2. After all, the overall trend is bullish, and there is still a demand for rebound after the correction
3. After the Asian market went sideways, it stepped back to the previous starting point of 2574.50, and then there was no strong pullback in the European session. Two consecutive positives tested the high point of the morning pullback near 2586.30 and did not continue to rise. Then the hourly line turned negative and continued to pull back. For a strong pattern, there is some lack of momentum, and the shock component has increased.
Continue to follow the trend with long positions. In the previous trading day, we relied on 2578 to look up to 2590. In the morning, we continued to look up around 2576/1, and looked up to 2587, but failed to reach 2600. The dream of 2600 has not yet been realized!
From the market point of view, the low point of the afternoon retracement is around 2574.50. The European session can continue to retrace, and even cross or break through, but it cannot deviate too much from the intraday low, otherwise it will limit the momentum of the evening pull-up. The position of the golden section line 236 is near 2571, which is also the support position of the lower trend line, so pay attention to the opportunity to continue to rebound below 2571 in the evening, and the upper resistance is near 2590.
9.17 Technical Analysis of Gold Short-term OperationsIn the four-hour chart, the price recovered the upper line and ran below the upper line. The short-term support is at the acceleration line 2573. If it breaks down here, it also indicates that the lower line of the hourly chart will break. Once it breaks, it will resonate downward, at least testing the support of the 2562-50 line. Secondly, from the four-hour moving average chart, the 5-10-day dead cross is downward, and the auxiliary indicator MACD is dead cross at a high level. The hourly chart counterattacks the upper line and turns short for the second time, which is the best time to short, and it is also a reasonable position to reduce positions. Once it breaks down, the overnight closing price of 2579-80 is basically rebounded, which is to add shorts. So as long as you hold 2590 to see that the adjustment remains unchanged, wait for 2600 or above after the breakthrough to make arrangements.
Strategy:
2585-88 area short, loss 92, look at 73-68-62-50. Break down 73 and rebound 80 and short loss 85
“Gold prices have been on a strong upward trajectory”In the U.S., the New York Fed Empire State manufacturing index for September rose from -4.7 to 11.5, indicating that the manufacturing sector has returned to growth territory. This data marked the highest level since April 2022. Despite this strong economic signal, the recovery in U.S. dollar assets remained limited. As a result, gold prices saw an upward movement, reaching the $2,585 level.
From a technical perspective, if prices remain consistently above the 2585 level, an increase to 2600 and then to 2650 could occur. On the downside, if the price falls below the 2570 support level, a pullback could extend to 2535 and then to 2482.
9.17 Technical Analysis of Gold Short-term OperationsAfter rising for three consecutive trading days, the price of gold rose again yesterday to a record high of $2,589 per ounce, close to the $2,600 mark, but it did not break through again. After encountering resistance and retreating, the final price closed at around $2,582. Overall, it still maintained a high level of consolidation.
There is no doubt that the rise in gold prices for three consecutive trading days has already indicated that the Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates, and it also indicates that the expectation of further interest rate cuts is in place. The market is concerned about how many basis points the interest rate cut will be, which is not so important because the trends of various varieties are digested in advance.
Yesterday, the price of gold rose to $2,589, and then encountered resistance and retreated. The daily line recorded a small positive cross star. The current price remains above the upper track of the Bollinger Bands. The moving averages of each period are arranged in a bullish pattern. The Bollinger Bands remain open as a whole. The MACD double lines rise, and the red kinetic energy column increases, which is in line with the development of the K-line. At present, the daily line still tends to be bullish.
Since technical indicators have a lag, it will be too late to wait until the price retreats or turns to short. Yesterday's high of $2589 is effective pressure. Looking further up is the $2600 mark, $2606. It is uncertain whether it can be reached. If it can be reached, you can intervene to short and wait for a retracement. The primary support below (short-term target) is $2560.
Today's short-term operation strategy;
Sell at 2585, stop loss at 2590
Buy at 2555, stop loss at 2550
XAU/USD Correction Anticipation: Key Price Levels & Timing!I expect to see a correction occur when the price is between the two vertical lines or slightly after them. The horizontal price levels show the potential levels the price could reach. So, the two vertical lines indicate the probable time for the price correction.
Of course, there is a possibility that the correction started earlier.
Let’s see what happens!
SpaceIchimoku
9.17 Gold Short-term Operation GuideAfter gold hit the high point of 2580-90 last week, it basically maintained a consolidation trend at the opening of this Monday. As of now, it is still above 2582 as the high point, and it is consolidating in the range of 70-90.
At present, many people think that the interest rate decision on Thursday will be a node, but not. I think the GDP data will be a window for a change.
Then, institutions may take advantage of the opportunity to buy and pull up again.
2580 is also a support in the 4-hour chart of gold. If it falls below the moving average support here, it is likely to test 2855-50 later.
Waiting for Gold's correction! XAU downXAU / USD trend forecast September 16, 2024
Traders lifted bets for an oversized interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve amid signs that inflation in the US is subsiding, which continues to act as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the current market pricing indicates over a 50% chance that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs by 50 basis points later this week.
The expectations were fueled by the softer US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) reports last week, which provided further evidence of easing inflationary pressures.
Based on M45, TRENDLINE to set up SELL signal, wait FOMC news
/// SELL XAU : zone 2603-2606
SL: 2611
TP: 50 - 150 - 200 pips (2586)
Safe and profitable trading
Gold is in the bullish direction after correcting the supportHello Traders
In This Chart GOLD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today Gold analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (GOLD market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on GOLD Market
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This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Is Gold HH confirmed ? 4H analysisGold is trading at record high with no sign of bearishness expecting Gold to go Higher High . But we have very important fed minute ahead FOMC , If Fed cuts rate by more than 0.5% will see atleast 2621-2650 and further even 2700.
This idea is valid only if it not breaks 2600 Levels
If rate cuts by only 0.25% we will see some correction but its a buy on every dips market .
Please do check b=my monthly analysis as well.
Don't forget to hit like , if you like my idea.
Disclaimer : Trading involves a significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors , This idea is meant for education purpose only , do your own research before risking your account.
9.16 Gold Short-term Operation GuideOn Friday, gold rose directly along the 2556 line in the early trading, rose to the 73 line in the European trading, and then fell back. In the evening, it rose again to the 80 line and then fell back. It hit a high of 86 in the late trading and then fell back slightly. Finally, the daily chart closed at 2579 with a big positive line.
Looking back at Friday, the price basically went up in a step-by-step manner. There were corresponding adjustments at each suppression point, but the overall trend was still dominated by bulls. The cyclical double positive continued in terms of form. From the current market, the trend remains unchanged, but the market does not only rise but not fall. If we look at the symmetrical cycle of the form, today's expected rise and fall will close in the negative. However, the market broke through the big positive line last week, and it is not realistic to directly reverse the trend in the short term. The previous platform consolidation has become an important support for the re-upward movement. The daily chart reaches the upper acceleration line suppression area, followed by the oblique pressure of 2597. After the four-hour shock to the breakthrough of the upper line and the acceleration line, the short-term indicators have been seriously overbought, so today I am optimistic about the rise and fall, and the lower 30-minute lower line on Friday formed support for the upward movement. Today, the key support is here on the hourly chart lower line, followed by the four-hour upper line, so today's operation is long first and then short.
Short term operations:
BUY 2567, loss 2561, target 2582-92-97.
SELL2597, loss 2603, target 2573-67-62-55
9.16 Gold Short-term Analysis GuideLast Friday, an article from the "Federal Reserve's mouthpiece" once again fueled speculation that the Fed might cut interest rates by 50 basis points at this week's policy meeting. The dollar index continued to fall and once lost the 101 mark, but recovered some of its losses during the U.S. trading session and finally closed down 0.13% at 101.10. U.S. Treasury yields fell slightly, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closing at 3.657%; the two-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, finally closed at 3.595%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.72%, the S&P 500 closed up 0.54%, and the Nasdaq closed up 0.65%. Trump Media closed up 7.62%.
Today's focus:
The eurozone will release the seasonally adjusted trade account for July;
The United States will release the New York Fed Manufacturing Index for September;
☆ Closed reminder: Today, the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Seoul Stock Exchange, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing Stock Exchange
The market's expectations for the Fed's upcoming interest rate cut continue to heat up. , the market currently expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at the September 18 meeting to reach 43%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 57%. This is the first possible rate cut by the Fed since 2020. The driving effect of the expectation of rate cuts on gold prices is obvious. The lower interest rate environment reduces the holding cost of gold and increases its attractiveness as a non-yielding asset.
Before the Fed meeting, gold prices usually show a trend of fluctuating higher. However, after the rate cut, gold prices may experience adjustments. Therefore, investors need to be vigilant about possible market reactions.
Monetary policy changes by major central banks around the world have an important impact on the gold market. The ECB's rate cut decision last Thursday reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold and further strengthened market expectations for loose policies. At the same time, U.S. inflation data has stabilized, providing the Fed with more room to consider rate cuts.
With the easing policies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, the bullish sentiment in the gold market has significantly increased. In addition, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar against the yen has further increased market interest in gold.
The strong performance of the gold market was also driven by fund inflows. Data shows that the holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed ETF, have reached their highest level since January this year. The World Gold Council (WGC) reported that global physical gold ETFs attracted inflows for the fourth consecutive month in August, which further supported the rise in gold prices.
In addition, geopolitical risks are also an important factor in the rise in gold prices. Geopolitical tensions in major economies around the world have increased market uncertainty and further boosted demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. These factors, including the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and tensions in the Middle East, have prompted investors to put their money into gold to avoid potential risks.