Is the decade-long bull run in gold prices coming to an end?Market news:
In the early Asian session on Wednesday (April 9), spot gold maintained a narrow range of fluctuations and traded around $2,983. In the previous trading day, the rebound of London gold prices was blocked, and it once surged to $3,022 during the session, but it eventually gave up its gains and fell to around $2,969 in the early trading due to the rise in U.S. Treasury yields and the decline in U.S. stocks. Although the weakening of the U.S. dollar and trade tensions provide safe-haven support for international gold, market concerns about weak demand for U.S. Treasury auctions, the outlook for the Fed's policy and increased stock market volatility still dominate short-term sentiment.The current market focus is on the evolution of the Fed's policy path and the geopolitical trade situation. Under the interweaving of long and short factors, the short-term volatility of gold has risen significantly. As tensions between historical allies over U.S. tariffs, global trade, and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East intensify, this time it seems unlikely that the major powers will quickly unite to resolve the issues that drive investors' interest in gold as a safe-haven tool. Investors need to focus on the results of the US 10-year Treasury auction today, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's March meeting, and the quarterly earnings period opened by JPMorgan Chase and other financial reports. If the demand for US Treasury auctions is weak or the Federal Reserve releases hawkish signals, gold prices may be further under pressure; on the contrary, the worsening of the trade war situation or the continued decline of US stocks may stimulate safe-haven buying.
Technical Review:
Technical gold daily chart, four-hour chart, hourly chart maintains a volatile downward short structure. The daily chart closed with a cross star yesterday. This pattern appears in the volatile downward structure and is regarded as a relay pattern rather than a reversal signal. At present, the daily chart MA10/7-day moving average opens downward at a high dead cross of 3060, and the MA5-day moving average opens downward and moves down to 3017, and the RSI indicator runs below the central axis 50 value. The price of the short-term four-hour chart is below the MA10-day moving average, and the price remains in the middle and lower track of the Bollinger Band channel. Gold remains volatile downward, and the trading idea remains unchanged, with rebound high and low as the main support, and low and long as the auxiliary. Resistance 2996/3008 far end 3020/3036, support 2968/2956 far end 2942/2930.
Today's analysis:
The long bull market of gold started in 2015 has been going on for nearly ten years. If the gold price falls by more than 20% from the high point, it may indicate a turning point in the cycle. We need to pay attention to the signal of the Fed's policy shift and the easing of the geopolitical situation. Even if we are optimistic about the bull market in the long term, it does not mean blindly chasing highs! Gold has been crazy for 3 trading days, and it began to stabilize slowly yesterday. After falling more than 200 US dollars in the daily cycle for 3 trading days, it needs a process of shock correction. At the same time, we need to pay attention to the development of tariffs. Yesterday, I emphasized the focus on the long-short dividing point of 3030 US dollars for gold. As the key position for the top and bottom conversion, before this position is broken, continue to sell gold at a high price. Yesterday, the circle of friends in the European session also suggested selling gold in the rebound area of 3020, because the loss of 3100 US dollars in the early stage has laid the groundwork for short-term adjustments. In addition, due to the impact of trade frictions, market sentiment is overly tense, and a large amount of funds have begun to withdraw from finance, including gold, which has been sold indiscriminately. After the gold price fell below the $3,000 mark, the market selling sentiment was high, and it was believed that gold would enter a large-scale adjustment! The recent market fluctuations have been very large, which is also in line with the properties of the gold product mentioned. When all assets are sold, the currency's safe-haven properties are highlighted. The sharp drop is accompanied by a fierce rebound, and the amplitude is not small. This was the case last Thursday, Friday and today. The current market starts with a fluctuation of tens of dollars. There are opportunities but also great risks. This will be the norm if panic does not subside. What retail investors can do is to decide what they can decide and do a good job of risk control. The current market is defined as a volatile market, which is a position operation. Today, the resistance of gold focuses on selling in the pressure area of 3020-3040.
Operation ideas:
Short-term gold 2953-2956 sell, stop loss 2945, target 2990-3000;
Short-term gold 3020-3030 short, stop loss 3050, target 2980-3000;
Key points:
First support level: 2968, second support level: 2956, third support level: 2942
First resistance level: 2996, second resistance level: 3005, third resistance level: 3020
