How to break through the gold shock patternOperation suggestionsTechnical analysis of gold: The current gold price is in a stalemate stage of long-short game. On the one hand, the path of the Fed's easing policy has been basically clear, and the US dollar is facing correction pressure; on the other hand, the stable global risk sentiment and the strong performance of the stock market have weakened the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven tool. The repeated signals of global trade negotiations have also made the market direction unclear. From a technical point of view, gold has received support after the correction to the 26.3% Fibonacci retracement level near 3317 this week, and has returned to above $3,300 in the short term. The upper resistance focuses on the position of 3380. Once it breaks through, it will open up the space leading to the 3400 mark.
From the daily chart of gold, yesterday's gold price fell sharply and recorded a large real body Yin line K-line pattern. The peak pattern of the previous price high is more obvious, suggesting that the upper pressure effect is strong. The MACD indicator double line began to turn downward, increasing the risk of further correction in the short term. However, the MA5 and MA10 moving averages have not turned downward yet. You can pay attention to the support and defense of the moving average. From the 4-hour gold chart, the gold price has been fluctuating and falling since it came under pressure at the 3500 level. The current price has fallen back to the 3260 level, with a short-term decline of 240 US dollars. Although there has been a rebound during the day, the upward trend has been destroyed. The MACD indicator has issued a dead cross signal, suggesting that the correction trend may have started.
Gold fell after rising in the Asian session, and fell below the support levels of 3351 and 3330. Now the market rebounded near 3314, which is also in line with our analysis of the long and short trends. In the big trend, the gold rally did not exceed 3380, so there is still a downward demand, that is to say, it can only be regarded as a rebound during the decline. In the short term, this wave of gains stopped at 3367. Now it broke through 3351 and pierced 3316 to rebound. The main focus on the upper side is the support-to-resistance level of 51, followed by 3342. Specifically, you can wait for the area near 3345 to go short and see the gold price break the previous rebound low of 3314 to 3300. If it breaks down effectively, you can move the protection loss down to see the position of the rebound turning point of 3283 and 3260. On the whole, the short-term operation strategy of gold today is to short on rebound and long on callback. The short-term focus on the upper side is 3350-3370 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 3300-3280 support.
Goldprice
Gold fluctuates and is under pressure, the trend is bearish!Gold market trend analysis:
Gold technical analysis: Gold fell by $240 in two trading days, but the rebound was also very strong, from yesterday's low of 3260 to 3367 in the early trading. The current volatility is still large, and the high and low points of $100 often appear. It is normal to fluctuate by dozens of dollars at random. So pay attention to the market. There is no shortage of opportunities. Just grab what you can grasp.
From a technical perspective, yesterday's closing was negative, slightly piercing the MA10 moving average, and losing the trend support line mentioned yesterday. Originally, today's technical theory should continue to be under pressure from the MA5-day, and the rebound confirmed that trend line, which can continue to be bearish, that is, 3338-40; but today's Asian session saw a strong wave of upward rush, reaching 3367 directly, which was quite unexpected. It was basically stimulated by short-term risk aversion news, and then it began to rise and fall, and then returned to below 3340; as long as the closing cannot break through and stand above the MA5-day resistance, it is still in a downward adjustment; today, it is still bearish, and the gold layout long orders were successfully harvested at 3316. Gold rebounded to 3343 and continued to be short. Gold fell again and harvested, and won two consecutive victories again. At present, the gold rebound is limited, and the US market rebound is still short.
Gold's 1-hour moving average has formed a dead cross, so the moving average has not turned upward, so there is still downward momentum, and the rebound can continue to be shorted. After the Asian session hit a high and fell, gold rebounded several times and fell back under pressure near 3345. The US session rebounded below 3345 and continued to be shorted. It can still be shorted near the rebound of 3340. At present, gold is just a rebound. If there is no special risk-averse news, it is still difficult to go up directly. At least it must fluctuate first, and it is still bearish and volatile now. On the whole, the short-term operation strategy for gold today is to short on rebounds and to go long on pullbacks. The short-term focus on the upper side is 3368-3370 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 3260-3285 support. Friends must keep up with the rhythm.
Confrontation between India and Pakistan pushes for risk aversioYesterday, the gold market opened at 3291.1 in the morning and then the market rose directly. The daily line reached a high of 3367.7 and then fell under pressure. The daily line finally closed at around 3345, and the daily line closed with a long upper shadow line. After this pattern ended, the short positions at 3496, 3468 and 3442 this week were reduced and the stop loss was followed up at 3400.
SELL: 3340 Stop loss: 58
TP1: 3330
TP2: 3320
TP3: 3305
BUY: 3300 Stop loss: 3295-92
TP1: 3320
TP2: 3335
TP3: 3360
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Gold prices staged a "roller coaster" market, and the trade war In the early Asian session, spot gold showed a trend of rising and falling. The gold price reached a high of US$3370.58/ounce and then fell back to around the 3350 mark for consolidation. After experiencing a sharp drop of nearly 3%, the gold price ushered in a strong rebound, with a single-day increase of 1.83%, and finally closed at US$3348.50. This wave of rebound was mainly driven by the weakness of the US dollar and the entry of market bottom-fishing funds.
The trade deadlock fell into a "Rashomon", and the rebound of the US dollar was blocked
The current gold market is caught in a fierce game of long and short factors. The Asian power issued a solemn statement, emphasizing that if the US side really wants to solve the problem, all unilateral tariffs should be canceled immediately. This statement is in sharp contrast to the "negotiation signal" recently released by the White House, making the trade outlook more confusing.
Affected by this, the US dollar index fell 0.61% to 99.29, while gold received strong support from safe-haven buying.
Quaid believes that the gap between the positions of the United States and China on trade issues is as huge as the Pacific Ocean, and this uncertainty will continue to affect the market trend. The US dollar rebounded but was blocked. Although Trump's attitude eased and it strengthened briefly in the early stage, it showed signs of fatigue again in the morning. At the same time, the US stock market achieved three consecutive positive days, and the S&P 500 index rose by 2.03%, with technology stocks leading the gains.
Quaid's analysis:
Looking forward to the later period, high-level fluctuations may become the main theme, and traders need to grasp the rhythm.
The current market presents a pattern: First, the uncertainty of the trade war. If the US insists on imposing new tariffs, the gold price may hit the $3,500 mark again; second, the suspense of the Fed's policy. Whether the May meeting will release a signal of interest rate cuts will become a key turning point; finally, the trend of the US dollar. If subsequent economic data continues to deteriorate, the US dollar index may fall below the 99 integer mark.
Market operation strategies:
Go long on a pullback of 3335, stop loss at 3330, look at 3380
Go short after rebounding at 3380, stop loss at 3390, and look at 3330
Gold’s Next Trap? Don't Blink“Gold’s Next Trap? Don't Blink. 👀💣”
📅 Daily XAUUSD Sniper Plan – April 25, 2025
Clean structure. No noise. Just logic.
🧭 MARKET CONTEXT
• Macro: No major USD catalyst. Yesterday's Unemployment Claims were neutral → price action driven by structure & liquidity.
• Sentiment: Gold remains in premium territory but failed to hold above 3355 in NY → suggesting smart money profit-taking.
• HTF Bias: Bullish (D1 trend intact, HLs hold)
• LTF Flow: Bearish intraday – CHoCH & BOS on M30-H1
• Key Event Backdrop: Powell not speaking today, but market still reflects uncertainty from recent Trump vs. Powell tensions.
📐 STRUCTURE & SMC FLOW
• M30–H1: Internal CHoCH formed after price failed to break above 3355
• Liquidity: Sweeps above 3353 and below 3312 → now hovering around internal equilibrium
• SMC Confluence: OBs, FVGs, and EMA alignment used for all entries
• FIB Zones: Discount for buys (3280–3310), Premium for sells (3385+)
🔻 SELL SCENARIOS
Sell #1 – 3385–3392
🧨 Premium retest zone + H1 OB + Gap mitigation
• SL: 3401
• TP1: 3355
• TP2: 3333
• TP3: 3306
🎯 Confluence: H1 OB, NY liquidity above, internal CHoCH
Sell #2 – 3411–3422
💣 Extended premium fill – final imbalance trap
• SL: 3432
• TP1: 3372
• TP2: 3333
• TP3: 3306
🎯 Confluence: Unmitigated FVG + fib extension 1.272 + clean wick rejection zone
🟢 BUY SCENARIOS
Buy #1 – 3333–3338
🔋 HTF OB + H4 structure demand
• SL: 3322
• TP1: 3360
• TP2: 3385
• TP3: 3410
🎯 Confluence: HTF FVG, historical bounce zone, EMA100 support
Buy #2 – 3284–3288
🧱 Sniper reentry zone from structure base
• SL: 3270
• TP1: 3312
• TP2: 3340
• TP3: 3372
🎯 Confluence: Previous sniper entry, structure HL, strong OB zone
📊 TREND RECAP
• HTF Trend: Bullish
• LTF Structure: Currently in retracement mode
• Bias: Neutral to bearish for early London, bullish only on clean 3333 reaction or deeper dip to 3284
🫂 COMMUNITY CALL
"Gold’s Next Trap? Don't Blink. 👀💣"
Will 3450 Hold? Or is Gold Just Getting Started? 🔄🧠
Which setup are you watching tomorrow? Let’s catch these sniper entries together – drop your bias in the comments 💬👇
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Possible H&S Forming – It’s All About the News NowOANDA:XAUUSD
📉 Watching closely: Possible Head and Shoulders formation developing on the 4H and 1H charts
As of April 24, 2025, Gold (XAU/USD) is forming a potential Head and Shoulders pattern on the shorter timeframes (4H and 1H), which could indicate a reversal setup. While multiple scenarios are still in play, the price action around the $3368 level will be crucial.
If price fails to break above this resistance in the near term, it could suggest weak bullish momentum and open the door for a pullback toward and possibly below the neckline around $3250 .
🔔 Key Economic Events – April 24
08:30 EDT – Durable Goods Orders MoM
Forecast: +2.0%
Personal outlook: Numbers might come in weaker than forecasted.
Durable goods orders are a solid gauge of industrial demand. Weaker-than-expected numbers would likely weaken the USD and could offer some upside pressure on Gold.
10:00 EDT – Existing Home Sales
Forecast: Lower than previous.
As a key barometer of consumer confidence and economic stability, lower-than-expected figures could also put pressure on the USD, potentially providing Gold a short-term bullish impulse.
📊 Potential Scenarios
Scenario 1 – Bullish Breakout
Weak economic data → USD weakens → Gold spikes above $3400
If both data points disappoint, we could see a rally in Gold, possibly breaking the resistance and invalidating the H&S pattern.
Scenario 2 – Bearish Breakdown (Preferred H&S Scenario)
Strong data → USD strengthens → Gold falls below $3200
While less likely, if economic data comes in stronger than forecasted, Gold could see a significant drop, forming the right shoulder and breaking the neckline – confirming the Head & Shoulders reversal.
Scenario 3 – Sideways Movement
Neutral data + Tariff talks in focus
In the absence of impactful data or if figures come in as expected, Gold might consolidate sideways. Ongoing developments around US-China tariff negotiations could dominate sentiment, delaying or nullifying the H&S pattern entirely.
📉 Market Sentiment Snapshot
US stocks are rallying on optimism around tariff reductions
Trump administration signaling potential easing of China tariffs
➡️ Gold under pressure as risk-on sentiment rises
📍 Conclusion
Keep an eye on the $3368 level and $3250 neckline. Short-term moves will likely be dictated by today’s economic releases and the evolving trade narrative. A confirmed break below the neckline would validate the bearish H&S scenario with potential downside toward $3200 and below.
👉 Stay nimble and trade the reaction, not just the forecast.
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This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.
Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
Gold fluctuates in the short term, but you can still make a prof
Gold is still fluctuating. Due to the pressure from the upper moving average, don't chase high for the time being. Wait for gold to pull back and you can still continue to short.
During the US trading time today, short-term gold bulls have begun to be powerless, so when gold pulls back to around 3350, shorts can enter the market at any time, and gold still has the opportunity to adjust. Gold continues to wait and see the adjustment market in the short term, and pay attention to trading signals in time.
Keep an eye on the price and participate well. Grasp the rhythm of gold pullback short-selling transactions. You will find that this kind of fluctuation is much more fun than the big fluctuation.
📊Comment analysis
Gold is currently just a rebound. If there is no special risk-averse news for gold, it will still be difficult to go up directly. At least it will fluctuate first, and it is still a bearish fluctuation now.
💰Strategy Package
Short position:
Actively participate at 3350 points, profit target is around 3310 points
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the capital account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the capital account
Gold pullback time, resistance rejection? How does it go.The market bounced off the resistance and declined, with a correction of about -6% after the previous bullish momentum. The price action formed a gap, which was later filled. It is worth noting that this pullback movement is similar to a similar pattern observed earlier this month, when the market also pulled back by -6.6%. Currently, the price is testing the area of the previous week's high, which may constitute a support area. After such a rapid decline, the price usually enters a consolidation phase - we may see a period of sideways trading around 3300. However, if a rejection candle is formed at the current level, I expect the price to move higher and retest the recent resistance area. My target is the resistance area around 3500.
The market has rebounded strongly from the support level that I highlighted yesterday. The price is likely to trade sideways above the channel border and the support level of 3300. After the consolidation, the price may resume the upward trajectory. As I mentioned earlier, the market experienced a 6.83% correction, after which we may see a continuation of the bullish trend. As long as the price remains above the support level, the market is likely to continue to move higher. If the support level is lost, the market may fall and form a second round of bearish movement, eventually pointing to the support level of 3200 points. However, I expect the price to move higher and retest at least the 50% bearish retracement. My target is the resistance level near 3400 points.
Quaid is working hard to provide brothers with analysis and suggestions based on international and market trends. I hope you can see Quaid's efforts.
Interpretation of gold short-term operation ideasAfter a surge in the morning, gold was suppressed and fell again in the afternoon and has been in a narrow range of fluctuations!
Evening operation ideas:
If the European session does not continue the Asian session's pull-up and continue to strengthen, the probability of evening fluctuations will increase. After a sharp pullback, it is not easy for gold to turn strong in the short term, so before yesterday's opening is broken, the possibility of continued pullback will increase!
Short-term suppression of the US market: 3330-35, look at a high and then fall
Support below: 3310-3300-3293
Data reference: The Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book of brokerage conditions at 2 a.m.
Trump will sign an executive order at 5 a.m.
Gold Potential Ideas - April 23, ahead of Unemployment Claims📉 Macro Snapshot – April 24, 2025
Gold is currently trading at 3337, stuck in mid-structure between supply at 3384–3414 and demand stacked between 3255–3260 and 3224–3233.
🕒 Key time today: Unemployment Claims and Durable Goods Orders hit. High-impact potential.
Expectations:
🔺 Strong data → possible spike down into buy zones
🔻 Weak data → potential liquidity grab into sell zones first
No confirmed shift unless 3344 is broken or 3220 is reclaimed. This is a reaction day, not a breakout day. Let price come to levels — and strike with confirmation.
🔴 SELL ZONES
🔴 Sell Zone 1: 3384 – 3393
🧱 Confluences: HTF imbalance + OB + structural trap zone
🛡 SL: 3398
🎯 TP1: 3365
🎯 TP2: 3341
🎯 TP3: 3310
🔴 Sell Zone 2: 3410 – 3415
🧱 Confluences: Premium OB + liquidity grab zone
🛡 SL: 3421
🎯 TP1: 3384
🎯 TP2: 3362
🎯 TP3: 3330
🔴 Sell Zone 3: 3450 – 3457
🧱 Confluences: Untouched HTF OB + psychological stop hunt
🛡 SL: 3465
🎯 TP1: 3410
🎯 TP2: 3380
🎯 TP3: 3341
🟢 BUY ZONES
🟢 Buy Zone 1: 3274 – 3282
📍 Strong support pocket — demand + Asia low
🛡 SL: 3264
🎯 TP1: 3300
🎯 TP2: 3330
🎯 TP3: 3350
🟢 Buy Zone 2: 3250– 3260
🧠 Confluences: Deep OB + liquidity grab + structural base
🛡 SL: 3245
🎯 TP1: 3272
🎯 TP2: 3300
🎯 TP3: 3313
🟢 Buy Zone 3: 3224 – 3233
📍 HTF EQ + reactive demand
🛡 SL: 3218
🎯 TP1: 3255
🎯 TP2: 3280
🎯 TP3: 3303
📌 Important Notice!!!
The above analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always compare with your plan and wait for confirmation before taking action.
📣 If this strategy sparked clarity, hit that like button and follow. 💛
Gold surged and then fell back to fluctuate. How to profit?
Trump said he was ready to significantly reduce the broad tariffs on Chinese goods. On the same day, Trump also said he had no intention of firing Fed Chairman Powell, who had previously asked the Fed to cut interest rates immediately. This move shocked the market and triggered warnings from business leaders.
Short-term trading of gold and US dollars on April 24: US market focuses on 3350-66 to suppress shorts, stop loss 3375, take profit 3317/3300
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the capital account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the capital account
Gold still has the risk of adjustment in the short termAnalysis of gold market trend:
From the daily level, gold rose strongly during the trading session on Tuesday, touched the key price of 3500, then fell under pressure and finally closed with a negative line. This trend of rising and falling shows that the selling pressure from above is heavy, and the bulls are strongly blocked by the bears at high levels. Then, gold continued to fall on Wednesday and closed with a negative line again, forming a technical pattern of two consecutive negative lines. This continuous decline further confirms that the short-term bears are dominant.
From the 4-hour gold chart, the gold price has maintained a fluctuating decline since it was under pressure at the 3500 line. The current price has fallen back to the 3260 line at its lowest, and the short-term decline has reached 240 US dollars. Although there has been a rebound during the day, the upward trend has been destroyed. The MACD indicator double line has issued a dead cross change signal, suggesting that the callback trend may have started. Pay attention to the pressure effect of the 3368 line during the day. For the current market, the rebound is just a flash in the pan, and it rebounded sharply again, reaching the highest point near 3367 and then retreated. It is currently maintained near 3330. In fact, the market is actually at a loss for long and short positions, and is simply unable to withstand its huge shocks. For the Asian session's highs and falls, we support it according to the shock retracement. For example, if the European session rebounds again near 3358-60, we will continue to try to short, with the target at 3320-10, and a loss of 3370. The market amplitude is so drastic that I need to strictly implement good operating habits, try with a light position, strictly stop loss, and don't have a fluke mentality! On the whole, today's short-term operation strategy for gold is to rebound and short, supplemented by callbacks. The short-term focus on the upper side is 3368-3370, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 3260-3285. Friends must keep up with the rhythm.
US policy news triggers huge shock in gold Analytical StrategyThe short-term 4-hour middle track 3380 line has been lost, becoming a key counter-pressure point. As long as the price cannot stand on this position again, it will maintain a downward correction trend. If it falls below 3292, the gains and losses of the 66-day moving average 3260 will be concerned. The 1-hour level K line is under pressure from ma10 and ma5 and continues to fall. After last night's consolidation and pull-up, the current K line has re-run above ma10, and at the same time, macd forms a golden cross below the zero axis. This wave of 200 US dollars of rapid exploration has almost corrected most of the overbought situation. If the price continues to fall, or with the help of bottom divergence, it will slowly brew a short-term bottom. Today's gold rebound reminds that attention should be paid to the resistance below 3340, and the limit is below 3356. If it is not under pressure, it will still be bearish adjustment. Strong support is at 3260 or 3245. After the position stabilizes, it will begin to consider bottom-fishing. For today's short-term operation of gold, it is recommended to focus on rebound shorting and supplemented by callback longing. The short-term focus on the upper side is 3350-3370 first-line resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 3300-3280 first-line support.
Gold re-surged at $3,400. China denies tariff negotiations with International gold prices rebounded as investors bought on dips after a sharp drop in the previous trading day, while the market focus remained on U.S.-China trade tensions.
As of press time, spot gold rose 1.6% to $3,340.79, reaching a high of $3,367 in the Asian session. Gold fell more than 3% on Wednesday, the biggest one-day drop since late November last year.
In addition, the decline in the U.S. dollar index made dollar-denominated gold cheaper for overseas buyers, which also supported gold prices.
Quaid's analysis:
Although the White House has repeatedly released signals this week that relations with Beijing may ease, China said on Thursday that there are currently no ongoing negotiations with the United States on tariffs. China's strong attitude also affects the current trend of gold.
In addition, the data released by the United States today on the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending April 19 and the monthly rate of durable goods orders in March also directly guided the trend of gold.
Quaid believes that the current trend of gold is still in an upward stage; gold is still supported by many favorable factors, and the "gold bulls" may eventually break through the $3,500 mark firmly.
Quaid recommends the operation strategy:
3335 long, 3330 stop loss, and look up to 3380.
Every decisive decision is paving the way for account value-added. Every decisive decision paves the way for account appreciation. Trust your own judgment, and gold will crown you.
Let's talk about Trump, gold continues to rise
After Trump came to power again, a series of measures have deeply affected the global political and economic landscape. His policy is like a carefully planned chess game, and every move is hidden. At present, various signs indicate that Europe has become his target, and Trump is trying to achieve the strategic plot of "bleeding Europe and kicking it out of the negotiation table" by a series of means.
1. Promoting Russia-Ukraine peace talks: interest calculations under the appearance of peace
After Trump came to power, he actively devoted himself to promoting Russia-Ukraine peace talks. At first glance, it seems to contribute to world peace, but in fact it contains multiple interests of the United States. From a geopolitical perspective, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been protracted, Russia's national strength has been continuously depleted in this war of attrition, and Europe is also deeply trapped in it. Due to sanctions on Russia, Europe's own energy supply channels have been blocked and the economy has suffered a heavy blow. If Trump succeeds in promoting peace talks, Russia will be able to get a breathing space and regain its position in the geopolitical map of Europe. In this way, Europe will lose the foundation for its tough stance against Russia. In the future strategic game with the United States, due to the internal contradictions and the change of geopolitical pattern, it will inevitably fall into a more passive and weak position.
From an economic perspective, during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a large amount of funds flowed out of Europe due to the need for risk aversion. In theory, once Russia and Ukraine achieve peace talks, there is a possibility that these funds will flow back to Europe and stabilize the European economy. However, when promoting peace talks, the Trump administration cleverly set additional conditions, such as requiring Europe to move closer to the United States in key areas such as trade and energy cooperation. Otherwise, it will not go all out to promote the peace talks in the direction that Europe expects. This makes Europe have to listen to the United States on the road to economic recovery and gradually become a vassal of the United States' economic interests.
2. Energy pricing power game: directly hit the lifeline of the European economy
The Trump administration has listed the Alaska liquefied natural gas development project as a national priority. This move has dual strategic intentions: on the one hand, it is expected that the project will help increase the production and export of US oil and natural gas, thereby achieving the US's "energy dominance"; on the other hand, it is a "secret killer move" against the European energy market.
For a long time, the United States has been committed to breaking Europe's dependence on Russian energy and making Europe rely on US energy supply. Trump puts pressure on European allies to force them to buy expensive US energy. Take Japan and South Korea as examples. In order to avoid the US "tariff stick", they are considering investing in large natural gas projects in Alaska, and some European countries are also facing similar huge pressure. As the share of US energy in the European market gradually increases, the United States will gradually gain the right to speak on European energy pricing. Once it controls this key power, the United States can adjust energy prices at will, and with high-priced energy, it can extract the "blood" of European economic development, causing the production costs of European companies to rise sharply, and weakening Europe's overall economic competitiveness in all aspects.
3. Trade war continues: Europe becomes a "victim"
Trump vigorously promotes the trade war, and his tariff policy is like a double-edged sword. While causing harm to trading partners, it also brings certain impacts to the US economy itself. However, the Trump administration obviously has a longer-term strategic layout. In this trade war, Europe is gradually becoming a "victim".
The United States imposes high tariffs on European goods, causing European export companies to be in trouble. The share of European automobiles, high-end manufacturing products, etc. in the US market has dropped sharply. At the same time, the Trump administration cleverly used the chaos in the global trade pattern caused by the trade war to force European companies to move their production bases to the United States to enjoy various preferential policies provided by the United States. This move not only further weakened the foundation of Europe's manufacturing industry, but also caused Europe's position in the global industrial chain to continue to decline. Affected by the trade war, Europe's economic growth momentum is insufficient, a large amount of capital has flowed out, and the unemployment rate has continued to rise.
4. Release the inflation haze: shift the economic crisis to Europe
For a long time, the United States has been plagued by inflationary pressure. In order to alleviate its own economic crisis, the Trump administration intends to release the inflationary pressure in the United States. By continuously printing money and expanding fiscal deficits, the United States attempted to pass on inflationary pressure to the world, and Europe was the first to bear the brunt.
Europe and the United States are closely linked economically. As the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US release of inflation has caused the dollar to depreciate. As a result, the large amount of US dollar assets held by Europe has shrunk. At the same time, the cost of importing US goods from Europe has become more expensive, which has further pushed up domestic prices in Europe. The European Central Bank is therefore in a dilemma: if it follows the United States in adopting loose monetary policies, it will further aggravate inflation; if it tightens monetary policy, it will inhibit economic growth. In this case, the European economy is stuck in a quagmire, and the United States has successfully passed on part of the cost of the economic crisis to Europe.
Trump's series of measures after taking office, whether it is promoting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, competing for energy pricing power, continuing the trade war, or releasing US inflationary pressure, each step is precisely moving in the direction of "bleeding Europe and kicking it out of the negotiation table". Europe is facing unprecedented severe challenges in this economic war without gunpowder. Where the European economy will go in the future and how the global economic landscape will evolve will largely depend on the subsequent actions of the Trump administration and Europe's own response strategy.
Through trade wars, energy exports and other means, when the euro gradually weakens with the overall economic strength of Europe, Trump will obtain more powerful negotiation resources, thereby transferring the investment costs of the entire Russian-Ukrainian battlefield to the European economy, and he can harvest more resources.
Of course, Europe cannot be slaughtered, so returning to the current issue, the media has been reporting that Trump wants to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. On the one hand, Trump hopes that the Federal Reserve will quickly cut interest rates to boost the prosperity of the US stock market. But on the other hand, Trump hopes to test whether Europe will follow the Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates by cutting interest rates. If Europe does not cut interest rates, it will inevitably lead to a greater advantage for manufacturing to return to the United States. Europe will accelerate the loss of the economic foundation of manufacturing. But if Europe follows the interest rate cut, combined with the results of the trade tariff war, it will be more open to consume the excess capacity of the United States. This will allow Trump to accelerate the transfer and digestion of US inflation.
This is a very important reason why Trump wants to replace Powell, but every time he speaks to the media, Powell is very tough and emphasizes the need to maintain the independence of the Federal Reserve. One implements its own external economic policy from the perspective of commercial asset competition. The other maintains the stability of the dollar from the perspective of currency stability. The contradiction arises in that one wants to expand without considering the risks and only cares about making money. Powell, on the other hand, considers economic stability and risks. After all, the US government is more like working for the Federal Reserve, one is like a board of directors and the other is like a CEO. The money bag is still in the Federal Reserve, and Trump needs the money bag to support his economic policy to achieve his desired goals and his own political achievements.
In a recent media speech, Trump mentioned: Gold holders make the rules. This sentence led to a crazy rise in gold prices, but then we saw that the gold price rushed to $3,500 per ounce, and then there would be a large amount of selling as long as it reached the US market stage. In my opinion, this is a selling performance led by the US government, selling at a high price to other central banks willing to take over. The gold sold by the United States at a high price must not allow other central banks to transport gold from the United States. In this way, the high-level selling seems to be exchanged for more US dollars. But the performance of gold prices rising and falling, anyway, the physical gold is still in the United States. That is, gold holders make the rules. When the United States sells gold to a certain extent and the price of gold is low enough, it will buy back gold at a low price. This is done. The gold is still in the United States, but the debt of the United States can disappear out of thin air.
Of course, this is just a way for the US government to pay off its debts. No matter how much the tariffs are added, it is actually to distinguish between enemies and friends. This crazy trade war will not last long. Not only the United States knows that it is coming, but we also know it. The reason why he still wants to do this is nothing more than to get more bargaining chips at the negotiating table. At the same time, he shows his allies how hard he is trying to suppress China's economy. But the fact is that in the future, his allies will provide blood, and he will just move his lips. After all, taking the lead in the route of suppressing China, whether or not he has achieved results, his attitude is strong enough, so he can ask his allies for more supplies later.
So we only need to pay attention to Trump in the future, how to bleed the global economy. How to dissolve the US debt. Suppress the euro, and thus announce the dominance of the US dollar again. For Asian countries, it seems that they are just watching him act. Who will win this economic war? As for who will be the final winner? There is no winner, it is just a development in confrontation. In essence, if Europe wants to escape from the clutches of the United States, it seems that it can only seek other trade models and increase Europe's infrastructure to Asia, thereby linking the economy of the entire Eurasian continent and forming the rise of the inland economy. However, Europe is currently facing a problem, that is, China's infrastructure has a global credibility and market share. It is almost impossible to be challenged. It depends on whether Europe is willing to withdraw from the stage of history, develop in a downturn, and find new ways of cooperation.
Finally, gold is bullish at 3331, with a target of around 3360
Technical analysis of short-term gold operationsGold rebounded to $3,339 and fell back after encountering resistance. It accelerated its decline after the opening of the U.S. market. After falling to $3,260 and stabilizing, gold began to rebound, and was still suppressed by the integer of $3,300 until the closing. Gold broke upward at the opening of Thursday, rising to $3,367, and fell back to $3,314 after encountering resistance and stabilizing. It is currently trading at $3,337. Overall, gold further retreated to $3,260 to stabilize, and rebounded to $3,367 and encountered resistance, which is basically consistent with the lower space of $3,250 and the upper space of $3,385 given by us.
Gold rebounded after hitting a new low in a week on Wednesday, mainly because Bessant said that tariff negotiations will not start soon and will be conducted at the current trade level between China and the United States. Trump did not propose unilateral reductions in tariffs on Chinese imports and denied any upcoming tax cuts, which increased uncertainty and caused some safe-haven funds to flow back into the gold market.
Gold------Buy near 3310, target 3360-3387Gold market analysis:
Gold has been bought and sold back and forth in the past two days. We need to follow the trend and the rhythm to make a profit. Yesterday, the buy order of gold we arranged was hit, and then the trend changed immediately to follow it. We arranged to sell at 3323, 3326 and 3337 to make a profit. Today's gold is expected to be washed out. Buying is not continuous, and selling is not continuous. If the rhythm is not controlled well to chase the rise and fall, it will also be washed out of the market. In the short term, we need to find opportunities in the 15-minute chart and the 30-minute chart, so that it is easy to follow it. From a large cycle perspective, the long-term trend of gold is still buying, and the weekly buying pattern has not changed. If there is no accident, gold will continue to hit new highs in the later period. In the later period of these two days, we need to watch more and do less to avoid market risks.
Pay attention to the small support and cycle position near 3310 in the Asian session. If this position stabilizes above 3300, it will rise again. Buying will see the suppression of 3387. There is a technical big step back near 3387. We estimate the space of 3300-3387 in the Asian session. Find the rhythm. If it stabilizes, buy it again. If it breaks 3310 and rebounds, sell it and see a new decline. The selling target will see the previous low point near 3326.
Support 3310-3300, pressure 3362 and 3387, the strength and weakness watershed of the market 3330
Fundamental analysis:
Trump's sudden change of style has caused gold to plunge all the way, and the European and American markets have risen sharply. In the short term, it suppresses gold and in the long term, it suppresses the US dollar.
Operation suggestion:
Gold------Buy near 3310, target 3360-3387
Gold surged and then fell back to fluctuate, pay attention to 33
The first goal of trading is survival, and the second is profit.
📌 Driving events
After experiencing the biggest drop in five months, gold prices rose on Thursday (April 24) and returned to above the 3300 mark.
After US President Trump hinted that tariffs on China might be reduced and expressed no intention to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, the market's risk aversion has cooled down. Gold hit a high of $3,367 during the Asian trading session, which can be regarded as ice and fire!
📊Comment analysis
For participants in the gold market, the impact of this price plunge is self-evident. The stock prices of gold mining companies have fallen accordingly, and the production capacity that expanded in the early stage due to the rise in gold prices may face the risk of shrinking profits.
At present, gold is under obvious pressure from above, and what needs to be paid attention to now is that the current round of gold adjustments is likely to continue, which means that it is not time to buy the bottom yet!
💰Strategy Package
Except for the early morning wave, the strength of the hourly line rebound is actually somewhat weak. As for the European session, Labaron is more inclined to continue to be bearish, and the current first round of rebound pressure is around 3350! If the rebound is in place, you can continue to try short orders!
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the fund account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
XAUUSD - Will Gold Reverse?!Gold is trading between the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 15-minute timeframe and is on its uptrend line. A continued bullish move towards the supply zone will provide us with the next opportunity to sell it with a good risk-reward ratio. We expect a range of $10-$15.
Gold prices dropped by 4% on Wednesday, just a day after reaching an all-time high. The decline followed remarks by President Trump that helped ease Wall Street’s concerns about the ongoing trade war with China and tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve.
Throughout this year, gold has seen a substantial rise due to investor fears over the economic consequences of tariffs. Additionally, the metal has benefited from capital fleeing U.S. assets amid political uncertainty under the Trump administration. On Tuesday, Trump reassured markets by stating that he had no intention of removing Jerome Powell as Fed Chair and expressed his expectation that tariffs on Chinese goods would soon be lowered.
Trump’s statements supporting Federal Reserve independence and hinting at easing trade tensions with China reignited risk appetite in financial markets, causing gold prices to tumble on Wednesday.Just a day earlier, prices had hit a record high above $3,500, as investors speculated that Trump might attempt to remove Powell. Trump had previously criticized Powell for not cutting interest rates and for warning that tariffs could lead to higher consumer prices.
Gold’s price surge this year has been especially notable following Trump’s decision to halt the implementation of sweeping new tariffs initially announced in early April. Gold, as a safe-haven asset not tied to any single national economy—unlike traditional alternatives such as the U.S. dollar or Treasuries, which are subject to U.S. government influence—has become increasingly attractive to investors wary of Trump’s policy decisions.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that continued tariff escalation in 2025 could push global public debt to 95.1% of GDP—an increase of 2.8 percentage points from previous forecasts. According to the IMF’s latest “Fiscal Monitor” report, if revenues and output fall significantly below expectations due to tariff-induced pressures, global debt could surpass 117% of GDP by 2027.
Investment bank JPMorgan has projected that gold prices could exceed $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026. This forecast is based on expectations of an economic recession, a prolonged trade war, and sustained demand from central banks. However, JPMorgan also cautioned that a sudden drop in central bank demand could threaten this bullish trend.
The IMF’s report further estimates that global public debt will climb to 99.6% of GDP by 2030, exceeding even the pandemic-era peak.
The IMF has forecasted global economic growth at around 2.8% for 2025. In this scenario, the U.S. budget deficit is projected to decrease from 7.3% of GDP in 2024 to 6.5% in 2025, and further down to 5.5% in 2026, largely due to increased tariff revenues and continued economic expansion.
These IMF projections for the U.S. deficit are based on policies announced up until April 2, 2025, and assume that the individual tax cuts enacted in 2017 will expire at the end of this year.
Is gold about to peak? Is the bull market still there?In fact, it is normal for a strong bull market to have a rapid washout. The logic of the bull market is not Trump's call to Powell. Trump's tricky operation is only a plus for the rise of gold, not a must. The logic of the rise of gold is that the repayment ability of US debt is questioned and the hegemony of the US dollar is challenged. The fact of the long-term fiscal deficit of the United States and the visible growth of US debt are the real driving forces.
As the International Labor Day is approaching, the bulls in the Asian market often choose to leave or reduce their positions in order to reduce warehouse interest and realize profits, which will cause a phased downward adjustment. In other words, from the perspective of the future, the underlying logic of the bull market has not changed. Holders of physical gold do not need to worry too much. They are optimistic about the strong bull market of gold in the future. The decline is often an opportunity to get on the train again. In the past, they waited for adjustments, and after adjustments, they were afraid that the bull would be gone, which made them worried about gains and losses.
Technical analysis:
The current gold price is in a stalemate stage of long-short game. On the one hand, the path of the Fed's easing policy has been basically clear, and the US dollar is facing correction pressure; on the other hand, the stable global risk sentiment and the strong performance of the stock market have weakened the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven tool. The repeated signals of global trade negotiations have also made the market direction unclear. From a technical point of view, gold has received support after the correction to the 26.3% Fibonacci retracement level near 3317 this week, and has returned to above $3,300 in the short term. The upper resistance focuses on the position of 3360. Once it breaks through, it will open up the space leading to the 3400 mark.
Quide Strategy Analysis:
After the early Asian market rose, it fell back and fell below the support levels of 3351 and 3330 analysis. Now the market rebounded near 3325, which is also in line with the trend of pulling back and forth. In the big trend, the gold rally did not exceed 3380, so there is still downward demand, that is to say, it can only be regarded as a rebound on the way down. In the short term, this wave of gains stopped at 3367. Now it broke through 3351 and pierced 3316 to rebound. The main focus on the upper side is the support-to-resistance level of 3350.
With 3350 as the protection, go short to see the gold price break through 3314. If it breaks down effectively, it can move down to see the turning point of the rebound between 3283 and 3260. On the whole, in terms of the short-term operation strategy of gold, Quide recommends rebound shorting as the main strategy and callback longing as the auxiliary strategy. The upper short-term focus is on the 3360-3370 line of resistance, and the lower short-term focus is on the 3310-3300 line of support.
Market trading signals are fleeting. Market trading signals are fleeting, and Quaid hopes that traders will seize every trading opportunity and become ace traders in the gold market.
Gold fluctuates in a wide range, and the short-term trend is upwGold fell by $240 in two trading days, but the rebound was also very fierce, from yesterday's low of 3260 to 3367 in the early trading. The current volatility is still very large. The high and low points of $100 often appear, and it is normal to fluctuate by dozens of dollars. So pay attention to the market. There is no shortage of opportunities. Just grab what you can grasp.
The daily cycle has stepped back to the MA10 position. It has entered a critical stage. If the bulls recover, the strong rhythm is still there. It is too early to say that the peak has been reached. Pay attention to follow the market and don't be stubborn. The short-term resistance is 3386 and the 618 position of the decline and rebound is 3408. It is recommended to wait and see in the European session and look at the trend. Intervene in the US session.
XAU/USD 24 April 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price printed as per my note yesterday whereby I mentioned that we should be surprised if price printed a bearish iBOS as all HTF's require a pullback.
Price subsequently printed a bearish iBOS which confirms internal structure.
Intraday Expectation:
Price has traded up to just short of premium of internal 50% EQ where we are seeing a reaction. Price could potentially trade further into premium of 50%, or H4/M15 nested supply zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 3,260.190.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
Trump's tariff announcement will most likely cause considerably increased volatility and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Gold Analysis April 24D1 candle closed with a sharp decline of nearly 100 prices
And today's opening with a price gap of more than 100 prices shows the instability of the market.
Returning to the h1 time frame wave will be easier to grasp. At the beginning of the European session, the market decided that the buyers won and are pushing up from 3322. Pay attention to the immediate area of 3340. If it breaks at the end of the European session, continue to wait for the price reaction at 3363. If it doesn't break, you can SELL. In the opposite direction, if it breaks 3363, wait for 3384 for the SELL strategy.
The BUY strategy is focused on the European session's price push zone of 3322. When it breaks, pay attention to the GAP opening zone this morning at 3295 and the bottom zone yesterday at 3266