XAU/USD) Flag Analysis Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update
Analysis presents a bullish outlook for XAU/USD (Gold vs USD) on the 1-hour timeframe, based on Smart Money Concepts (SMC). Here’s a breakdown of the key elements:
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Key Analysis Points:
1. Order Block + Key Support Zone:
Price recently tapped into a bullish order block around the $3,166.74–$3,208.62 zone.
This area is also marked as a "key support level", suggesting a strong demand zone.
The confluence of the Fair Value Gap (FVG) and order block gives this zone higher validity for potential reversal.
2. Bullish Market Structure:
The chart shows higher highs and higher lows, indicating a bullish trend.
Price action broke above a small consolidation, showing bullish momentum is resuming.
3. Projected Target:
The target point is set at $3,283.01, suggesting about a 55-point upside from the current price.
This target sits above a previous high, indicating anticipation of a liquidity grab or breakout.
4. RSI (Relative Strength Index):
RSI is at 57.94, which is a neutral-to-bullish zone. It supports the idea that there's still room for price to move up before being overbought.
5. EMA 200 (Exponential Moving Average):
The price is well above the 200 EMA, confirming a bullish bias in the higher timeframe.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Possible Strategy:
Long (Buy) Entry Zone: Between $3,166–$3,208 (ideal near the order block/FVG).
Target: $3,283
Stop Loss: Below the order block, ideally below $3,166 to avoid getting wicked out.
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Final Thoughts:
This is a well-structured bullish setup based on institutional concepts like order blocks and FVGs. The price is aligned with the trend, and RSI supports more upside. However, watch for any major news catalysts (especially with those economic event icons shown).
Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
Goldprice
XAU/USD 17 April 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 16 April 2025. You will note that CHoCH positioning has been brought closer to current price.
Price has printed according to analysis dated 14 April 2025, however, as I mentioned in my analysis yesterday whereby I stated that price has printed a bearish CHoCH and I would continue to monitor price.
Price has printed very minimal pullback and continued its bullish trajectory, therefore, I will again apply discretion and not classify a bullish iBOS. I have however marked this in red as a guide.
Intraday Expectation:
Await for price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback initiation phase. Bearish CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price printed according to yesterday's analysis by targeting weak internal high and printing a bullish iBOS.
Price subsequently printed a bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal structure.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3, 357.775.
Alternative Scenario:
As we await for price to print a bearish CHoCH on H4 TF is would be necessary for price to print a bearish iBOS on M15 TF (this is the fractal nature of markets) therefore, it should not come as a surprise is price printed a brearish iBOS.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
Trump's tariff announcement will most likely cause considerably increased volatility and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
XAU/USD "The Gold" Metal Market Heist Plan (Scalping/Day Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
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Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the breakout then make your move at (3185) - Bearish profits await!"
however I advise to Place sell stop orders below the Breakout level (or) after the breakout of Support level Place sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most NEAREST (or) SWING low or high level for Pullback entries.
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📌Thief SL placed at the nearest/swing High or Low level Using the 30min timeframe (3240) Day/Scalping trade basis.
📌SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯: 3130
💰💵💴💸XAU/USD "The Gold" Metal Market Heist Plan (Day / Scalping Trade) is currently experiencing a Neutral trend (there is a chance to move bearishness).., driven by several key factors.👇👇👇
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As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
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2 hours ago
GLD Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-04-16GLD Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-04-16)
Below is a consolidated view of the various model reports and our resulting trade rationale:
──────────────────────────────
Comprehensive Summary of Each Model’s Key Points
• Grok/xAI Report – Notes that GLD closed around $306.52 with recent upward momentum and bullish daily indicators. – Technicals (moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and MACD on daily charts) support a moderately bullish bias despite some near-term caution from 5‑minute signals. – Recommends buying the $311 call (premium ~ $0.99) with a plan to exit if the price breaks key support or slides 20% in premium.
• Claude/Anthropic Report – Highlights strong daily uptrend fundamentals with GLD well above its key moving averages, although the daily RSI is high (76.59) which raises a caution flag. – Points to robust call open interest at nearby strikes ($310) and suggests a bullish trade via the call option—even though a slightly lower strike ($310) is mentioned, the overall picture is bullish. – The recommended entry is at market open with a target around a 50% premium gain and a stop if the premium retracts significantly.
• Gemini/Google Report – Emphasizes strong longer‐term bullish momentum but expresses caution given immediate overbought conditions (daily RSI above 70 and price trading above the upper Bollinger Band). – Also notes the strangely low max pain ($275) in contrast to the current price, warning of potential early pullbacks. – Concludes that the overall picture is too conflicted to recommend a trade at the open at this time.
• Llama/Meta Report – Combines technical indicators (EMA, RSI, Bollinger Bands) with strong news sentiment to determine GLD is in a bullish phase. – Identifies the $311 call (premium ~$0.99) as attractive given its liquidity and distance from the current price (about 1.46% above). – Recommends market-open entry with targets set at roughly 150% of the premium and stop-loss based on a percentage of the premium.
• DeepSeek Report – Provides a balanced trade plan noting the very strong 30‑day price performance and bullish daily MACD while cautioning on the overbought RSI reading. – Recommends the $311 call (midpoint premium ~$0.99) with a profit target of roughly a 50% gain and a stop tied to technical support breaks (around $304.90). – Maintains a moderate confidence level (around 65%) because of the chance that short‑term pullbacks may materialize.
────────────────────────────── 2. Areas of Agreement and Disagreement
• Agreement: – Most models agree on an underlying moderately bullish trend for GLD based on daily technical indicators and positive news (e.g., fund inflows and safe‑haven demand). – A majority favor a call option trade on the weekly expiry, with many models arriving at the vicinity of the $311 strike (with premiums around $0.99) as an optimal entry.
• Disagreement: – The Gemini/Google report raises concerns about overbought conditions on the daily chart and highlights a very low max pain level that suggests downside pressure, recommending against an immediate open trade. – Claude mentions a slightly lower strike ($310) but still a call trade; however, the bulk of reports lean toward the $311 call as a balanced choice, accepting the premium being a bit above the ideal $0.30–$0.60 range.
────────────────────────────── 3. Conclusion and Trade Recommendation
Overall Market Direction Consensus: Most models point to an overall moderately bullish outlook on GLD. While the daily trend is robust, some short‑term technicals (e.g., the overbought RSI and near-term MACD signs) advise caution. Nevertheless, the prevailing momentum and strong news sentiment favor a bullish call—even if a temporary pullback remains possible.
Recommended Trade: Trade Idea: Buy a single‑leg, naked CALL option on GLD. • Strike: $311.00 (this strike shows sufficient liquidity with about 1,055 open interest and a traded premium of roughly $0.99) • Expiration: Weekly options expiring 2025‑04‑17 • Premium: ~ $0.99 (slightly above the ideal range, but justified by good risk/reward and high liquidity) • Entry Timing: At the open • Profit Target: Approximately a 50% increase (target premium ~ $1.50) • Stop Loss: Approximately 20% drop in the premium (≈ $0.79) • Confidence Level: Moderately confident (≈70%) given the bullish trend tempered by the risk of an intraday pullback • Key Risks/Considerations: – The daily RSI is in overbought territory, so be alert for any pullback. – The inherent conflict with the very low max pain point ($275) suggests potential short-term volatility. – Monitor support levels (e.g., $304.90 on the 5‑minute chart) for early signs of reversal.
────────────────────────────── 4. TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format)
{ "instrument": "GLD", "direction": "call", "strike": 311.0, "expiry": "2025-04-17", "confidence": 0.70, "profit_target": 1.50, "stop_loss": 0.79, "size": 1, "entry_price": 0.99, "entry_timing": "open" }
Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions based on proprietary research which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and options trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of TradingView. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors' IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.
Markets next move will depend on its interaction with Key LevelsGold Analysis
MSS & FVG+Breaker Zone
Gold has given an MSS (Market Structure Shift) and touched the FVG+Breaker Zone, followed by a downward move. Given the current market structure, potential areas to watch for a stop and potential upside pump could be:
Possible Downside Targets:
1. $3321 liquidity level
2. Higher Time Frame (HTF) PD Arrays
Potential Upside Pump
If the market reaches these areas, we might see a pump upwards, driven by liquidity and market structure.
Key Levels to Watch:
- $3321 liquidity level
- HTF PD Arrays
Market Direction
The market's next move will depend on its interaction with these key levels. A potential bounce from these areas could signal an upside pump.
Let's monitor the market's movement and adjust our analysis accordingly.
The price of gold is skyrocketing!Market news:
In the early Asian session on Thursday (April 17), spot gold rose slightly, once hitting a record high of around $3,357 per ounce. As the trade situation became increasingly tense, investors turned to safe-haven assets. The chairman of the Federal Reserve admitted that economic growth was slowing down, and the U.S. stock market, the U.S. dollar and U.S. bond yields fell sharply, which also provided momentum for the rise of gold prices. International gold prices soared dramatically, and the London gold price broke through the $3,300 per ounce mark and set a new high. Gold still has strong support, including a weaker U.S. dollar, uncertainty about tariff news, and concerns about a global recession. The escalating tensions between the world's two largest economies have hit confidence in financial markets, and investors have begun to flock to assets such as gold for risk aversion. At the same time, the U.S. dollar fell against other major currencies and remained at a nearly three-year low hit last week, meaning that gold has become relatively cheap for buyers holding foreign currencies. This trading day will usher in the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, and the market generally expects a 25 basis point drop; in addition, the changes in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States, the initial value of the annualized total number of building permits in the United States in March, and the annualized total number of new housing starts in the United States in March will also be released, and investors need to pay attention to them. Friday is the Good Friday holiday, and investors also need to be wary of brokers' position adjustments before the holiday.
Technical Review:
Trends are king. Whether you believe it or not, do it or not, gold continues to set new historical highs, soaring, and soaring. The price continues to run in the trend structure, the buying trend structure is intact, and the daily line continues to close strongly! However, it is necessary to pay attention to the daily price reaching the upper track of the Bollinger band, the four-hour chart is 9 consecutive positive, and the RSI indicator is overbought above the 80 value. It is necessary to pay attention to the emergence of a high-rise and fall-back wash trend. Buy at a low price and wait for a callback to the relative low point layout. At present, gold has basically rushed to the sky. In April, you can basically see the fluctuation range of gold within 70-100 points every day. In this market, you say that fixed points are sometimes fleeting, and the optimistic resistance is like paper that can be broken at the touch of a button. So is gold really going to the sky? I can only say that under such favorable conditions, it is really difficult to see gold fall! From a macro level, the daily chart gold price has formed a lasting upward trend since the low of $2536.68. The current price is around $3350, which is significantly higher than all major moving averages, indicating that the long-term bullish momentum is still strong. The golden cross pattern of the MACD indicator on the daily chart continues to develop, indicating that the long-term trend momentum is still upward. This year, the trend cannot be changed. There is a callback squat or sideways consolidation, which are all bullish opportunities; So once the big positive K is closed today, the retracement above the top and bottom support of 3315 will continue to be bullish. As for the height, the third derivative wave of the monthly line is calculated at 3444 by 2 times, which is also the goal of the next stage.
Today's analysis:
Gold has been crazy recently, and the buying momentum of gold has been galloping all the way. In the past two days, I woke up every day and opened my eyes. Gold has reached a new high again. The buying power of gold is very strong. It was bought at 3342 in the Asian session and harvested at 3355. Although gold is crazy now, we should also pay attention to the purchase of gold at any time. The current trend of gold buying has not changed. Continue to buy when it falls in the Asian session. The 1-hour moving average of gold continues to be a golden cross and the upward buying divergence arrangement. It is difficult for gold to have a big correction if it is strong. After gold began to fall and fluctuate and adjust at the line near 3315 yesterday, gold continued to break upward in the US session. Then the short-term 3315 of gold will form support again. Gold will continue to buy on dips when it falls back to 3315. If gold falls back to around 3320, it can continue to buy. Before there is no particularly obvious sign of a sharp decline, buying has become our only choice, and it is also the best and safest choice! While being bullish, pay attention to the opportunity to fall back. Unless the strength is suddenly strong at that time, don't buy easily. Wait patiently for the opportunity to fall back. How long can gold buying be crazy? No one knows that there is no top when it rises. Since gold is so crazy, what we have to do is follow it. It is difficult for gold to fall sharply before a large-scale sell signal appears!
O peration ideas:
Short-term gold 3317-3320 buy, stop loss 3308, target 3360-3380;
Short-term gold 3387-3390 sell, stop loss 3398, target 3340-3330;
Key points:
First support level: 3340, second support level: 3332, third support level: 3315
First resistance level: 3363, second resistance level: 3377, third resistance level: 3386
XAU/USD(20250417) Today's AnalysisMarket news:
U.S. import prices fell 0.1% in March from the previous month, the first month-on-month decline since September last year.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
3224
Support and resistance levels:
3247
3238
3233
3215
3209
3200
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 3233, consider buying, the first target price is 3247
If the price breaks through 3224, consider selling, the first target price is 3215Market news:
U.S. import prices fell 0.1% in March from the previous month, the first month-on-month decline since September last year.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
3224
Support and resistance levels:
3247
3238
3233
3215
3209
3200
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 3233, consider buying, the first target price is 3247
If the price breaks through 3224, consider selling, the first target price is 3215
Gold is bullish but not high, but be careful to adjust the risk!
📌 Driving Event
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made a clear statement at the Chicago Economic Club on Wednesday (April 16) that he would wait for more economic data to be released before deciding the direction of interest rate adjustment. He particularly emphasized that the recent market volatility is a reasonable response to the Trump administration's tariff policy, and bluntly denied the possibility of "Federal Reserve support". This hawkish speech directly led to
the expansion of the decline in US stocks and the continued surge in gold.
The US dollar index has risen in the past two days, and with the increase in tariff policies, there will be no unfavorable factors if the game between major powers does not stop.
📊 Commentary Analysis
Gold continued to rise unilaterally in the past two days, especially the full-day increase of more than 100 US dollars on Wednesday, which almost beat the shorts without any ability to fight back. At present, gold continues to rise and fall, setting new highs, and there is no way to see where the high point is in this rally. For the current market, the only effective trading strategy is to go long on the decline and continue to be bullish. If there is no adjustment and decline space, it is better not to trade.
Even if you are bullish today, you should be aware that there will be room for adjustment at any time. If it falls below 3320, it will not be very strong. If it falls below 3280, gold may fall in retaliation. Therefore, don't be too bullish today and pay attention to the risk of high gold prices. Moreover, Friday is Good Friday, and the US market will be closed for one day. Beware of the risk of closing positions after long positions are profited. 🔶Personal
💰Strategy
Long position:
Gold is long near 3330-35, defend near 3320 area, and target 3360
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the fund account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
Gold hits record as Polymarket flips Fed callFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has warned that President Donald Trump’s tariff policy is likely to fuel higher inflation and slow economic growth.
Speaking at the Economic Club of Chicago on Wednesday, Powell said, “Markets are struggling with a lot of uncertainty, and that means volatility.” His comments were quickly reflected in the markets, with the Dow shedding 1.7%, the S&P 500 falling 2.3%, and the Nasdaq tumbling 3.4%. Meanwhile, gold extended its rally to a new record high of $3,337.
What may not be uncertain is the Fed’s next rate decision. According to Polymarket data, there's now an 89% chance the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at its May meeting—up from 69% just a month ago.
Polymarket is also pricing the odds of Powell being replaced by Trump with a more servile director this year at 17% (which could likely send the odds of a rate cut in May shooting up).
The risk-averse frenzy has triggered a massive explosion of gold
📌 Driving Event
The US government's tariffs and rare earths have doubled, highlighting the safe-haven properties of gold.
The Trump administration has recently launched national security investigations into semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and other fields, indicating that the second wave of tariff wars is imminent. Former US Treasury Secretary Yellen bluntly stated that this "self-harming" tariff policy not only fails to achieve the return of manufacturing, but may lead to a break in the global supply chain and push up inflationary pressure. The market's expectations for "stagflation" in the US economy have increased, and gold, as a dual tool for anti-inflation and risk aversion, has significantly increased its appeal.
📊Comment Analysis
At present, gold has basically rushed to the sky. In April, you can basically see the fluctuation range of gold within 70-100 points every day. In this market, you say that fixed points are sometimes really fleeting, and the optimistic resistance is like paper that can be broken at the touch of a button. So is gold really going to the sky? Labaron can only say that under such favorable conditions, it is really hard to see gold fall!
💰Strategy Package
Long position:
Gold is long near 3310, defend near 3290 area, and the target is 3330-37
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the fund account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
XAUUSD Pre-Powell Key Level Update – April 16, 2025⚠️ XAUUSD Pre-Powell Key Level Update – April 16, 2025
🔥 Post-speech positioning starts now – but smart money prepares before the speech.
🔍 Macro & Context
🗣️ Powell speaks tonight – market expects hawkish reassurance amid ongoing inflation fears.
🥇 Gold just made new All-Time High (ATH) = 3319, liquidity swept, now consolidating.
🏦 US Dollar still uncertain, Nasdaq under pressure → Gold remains king for now.
🕯️ Key Levels – Updated with ATH Context
🟡 Daily Chart
ATH (Liquidity Grab): 3319
Next potential targets above:
🧲 3340.00 = extension level + premium FVG target
🧲 3365.00–3370.00 = extreme FIB 1.618 + psychological round number
Key Demand Below (Daily):
🔵 3246–3248 (Daily FVG)
🔵 3211–3214 (Valid Daily OB + FVG)
🔵 3204.97 (Daily FVG Base)
🟡 H4 Key Levels
Current Structure: HH-HL bullish, last BOS clean
Premium FVG rejection zone (current): 3306–3319 (Price reacting here)
Support zone:
🔵 3247–3251 (unmitigated H4 OB + FVG)
🔵 3211–3214 (FVG + prior CHoCH retest)
🟡 H1 Key Levels
🧠 Weak High: 3319
🔄 Possible Pullback Area:
🔵 3285.00–3290.00 (minor H1 imbalance)
🔵 3264–3268 (last H1 HL zone)
Strong demand below =
🔵 3247–3251
🔵 3211–3214
🧭 Scenarios To Watch Before Powell
Quick retrace into 3285–3290, then another sweep attempt toward 3319 or new ATH (3340+).
Deeper retrace into 3247–3251, then long (if speech fuels bullish sentiment).
If Powell hawkish → gold may drop to 3211–3214 (valid buys here) before resuming uptrend.
📢 Final Reminder
📌 Don’t chase price right now. Wait for clean mitigation before reentry.
📌 Powell’s tone will define short-term bias, so protect capital!
📌 Always zoom out — the structure was right, but we need to act faster next time!
💬 Let’s Talk
✅ Drop your thoughts in the comments
✅ Like & follow if you caught today’s rally or plan to ride Powell volatility!
🎯 Stay sharp, stay patient — and remember: gold doesn’t forgive chasers.
Gold-----Buy near 3260-3280, target 3290-3350Gold market analysis:
Gold hit a new high again in the Asian session. Where is the top? There is no top to speak of. The daily pattern of gold shows that it still has the momentum to continue to rise. The daily line is not weak. Yesterday's repair was just a repair, just a rest. Fundamentals and data are immune to gold. Gold fell slightly when the data was bad, and rose sharply when it was good. In fact, gold itself wants to rise. Today's thinking is undoubtedly to continue to be bullish. Selling is dead in the short term. Bulls will continue to be bullish in the Asian session today based on the position of 3256. We have analyzed before that the next big target of the weekly pattern and segmentation cycle is to look at 3400. It is estimated that it will reach it after a few waves of pull-ups. The weekly line was a big positive last week and there is also a need for inertia to rise this week.
The previous high point of 3245 is the new support. If this position is not broken today, it is basically difficult to change the buying trend of gold. The moving average begins to hover. The small moving average support behind is our opportunity to buy again. The new big support of the day has reached around 3225, which is also the suppression position of yesterday's shock. It is estimated that we have to consider directly chasing again if the Asian session is strong.
Support 3245 and 3256, super support 3225, pressure is invisible, and the strength and weakness watershed of the market is 3256.
Fundamental analysis:
There is not much data this week, but the fundamentals are still many. Note that the market will rest on Friday this week, which is Good Friday.
Operation suggestions:
Gold-----Buy near 3260-3280, target 3290-3350
Gold (XAUUSD) Trade Setup: Bullish Breakout Toward $3,637 TargeCurrent Price: $3,309.18
EMA 30 (Red Line): $3,265.00
EMA 200 (Blue Line): $3,163.35
Trend Direction: Strong uptrend (price above both EMAs)
Timeframe: 1-hour (short-term analysis)
📍 Key Levels
Entry Point: Around $3,266.63 (just above EMA 30)
Stop Loss: Around $3,265.00
Target (EA Target Point): $3,637.23
Potential Profit: +$365.01 or +11.16%
🔍 Technical Patterns & Zones
Rising Channel: Price is moving within a rising wedge or channel, indicating bullish momentum but with narrowing range — a potential reversal signal if broken.
Support Zone: Highlighted purple box around the entry point; likely a demand zone.
Resistance Zone: $3,637.23 area marked as the EA Target Point — previous resistance or Fibonacci extension level.
✅ Bullish Signals
Price is consistently making higher highs and higher lows.
EMAs are aligned in a bullish formation (short EMA above long EMA).
Clear breakout above consolidation range recently.
Trade setup shows favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
⚠️ Risks / Caution
Rising wedge can sometimes break down — watch for volume drop or divergence.
Potential pullback to the entry zone is expected (indicated by the arrow).
News Events: Symbols below the chart indicate upcoming USD economic data, which could bring volatility.
📈 Strategy Summary
Buy on pullback to $3,266.63 with tight stop at $3,265.00.
Target: $3,637.23 — potential 11% gain.
Risk: Minimal if stop is respected, tight stop-loss.
XAUUSD - 15m Sell SetupXAUUSD - Daily Sell Setup 🔻
After a strong and extended rally, Gold (XAUUSD) has reached an overheated level and is now showing signs of short-term exhaustion.
We’re eyeing a $30 correction, which translates to nearly 300 pips of opportunity for short sellers.
📉 Current Price: ~$3,307
🎯 Target: ~$3,277
With momentum slowing and candles printing hesitation, this could be a great time to catch a quick pullback. Ideal for short-term traders who thrive in volatility.
💡 Manage your risk, don’t chase — wait for confirmation before entry.
💸 Ready for 300 pips? Follow us and ride the wave with precision! 🚀
XAU/USD 16 April 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed according to yesterday's analysis, however, as I mentioned in my analysis yesterday whereby I stated that price has printed a bearish CHoCH and I would continue to monitor price.
Price has printed very minimal pullback and continued its bullish trajectory, therefore, I will again apply discretion and not classify a bullish iBOS. I have however marked this in red as a guide.
Intraday Expectation:
Await for price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback initiation phase. Bearish CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price did not print according to yesterday's analysis, failing to target weak internal low by printing a bullish iBOS. This is most probably due to Trump's tariff policy and ongoing uncertainty.
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range. However, I will continue to monitor price.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,317.920
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
Trump's tariff announcement will most likely cause considerably increased volatility and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Gold continues to surge to new highs! Market analysis referenceToday's Asian session has directly pulled up from yesterday's multiple rebound highs near 3230. The current relative low has risen by nearly 80 points, and there is a trend of further hitting new highs. Once it breaks the high again, it will continue to hit the 3330-50 line. We have analyzed before that the next big target of the weekly pattern and segmentation cycle is to look at 3400. It is estimated that it will reach it after a few waves of pull-ups. The weekly line last week's big positive also needs to rise inertia this week. The current focus of the day is still on falling back to do more.
After the Asian session gold price rose sharply, the European session trend is crucial. If the European session maintains a small sideways fluctuation, then the US session is likely to launch an upward attack again. What needs to be focused on now is the extent of the bulls' callback repair. In view of the current volatile market, the decline of tens of dollars may just be a normal adjustment of the bulls, not a trend reversal. The current support below can refer to the afternoon low of 3280, which can also be used as an important reference for European session operations. The key watershed below may be at the previous top and bottom conversion position of 3245, while the upper key pressure is focused on the 3330-3350 line. On the whole, the short-term operation strategy of gold today is recommended to be long on pullbacks and short on rebounds. The upper short-term focus is on the 3330-3350 line of resistance, and the lower short-term focus is on the 3275-3280 line of support. Friends must keep up with the rhythm.
Gold operation strategy reference: Strategy 1: Short gold rebounds near 3330-3340, target near 3305-3290, and look at the 3280 line if it breaks.
Strategy 2: Long gold pullback near 3275-3285, target near 3310-3330, and look at the 3350 line if it breaks.
Gold (XAUUSD) 15-Min Buy Setup: Bullish Breakout with High Risk-Instrument: XAUUSD (Gold vs. US Dollar)
Timeframe: 15 minutes
Indicators:
EMA 200 (Blue): 3,170.78 (long-term trend indicator)
EMA 30 (Red): 3,231.53 (short-term trend indicator)
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Key Levels:
Entry Point: 3,226.55 (highlighted with a blue arrow and line)
Stop Loss: 3,213.38 (purple zone bottom)
Target (Take Profit): 3,272.25
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Trade Setup:
Type: Long (Buy) Position
Risk-to-Reward Ratio:
Risk: ~13.17 points (from 3,226.55 to 3,213.38)
Reward: ~45.7 points (from 3,226.55 to 3,272.25)
R/R Ratio: Approximately 3.5:1, which is favorable
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Market Context:
Price is curren
Gold (XAUUSD) Bullish Breakout Setup – Targeting 3,394.56 After EMA 30 (Red Line): Currently at 3,109.56
EMA 200 (Blue Line): Currently at 3,064.85
Price is above both EMAs, indicating bullish momentum in the short and long term.
📈 Trade Setup:
Entry Point: Around 3,162.15
Stop Loss Zone: Below the purple support box around 3,109–3,141 (right above the 30 EMA)
Target (Take Profit): 3,394.56 — marked as "EA TARGET POINT"
📊 Strategy Outlook:
Bullish Setup: The price recently broke out of a resistance zone (purple area) and retested it, confirming the breakout.
The risk-to-reward ratio appears favorable, as the target is significantly higher than the stop loss.
The upward price projection suggests confidence in a strong bullish continuation.
⚠️ Things to Watch:
Volume confirmation and price action near the entry level.
If price closes below the 30 EMA, it may invalidate the setup.
Always consider broader macroeconomic or fundamental factors when trading gold (e.g., USD strength, interest rates, geopolitical tension).
Gold hits record high again! Intraday gold trading analysisFundamentally, although risk sentiment improved at the beginning of this week, Trump's policy changes caused gold prices to fluctuate and adjust, but due to the lack of obvious and sustained negative prospects and the uncertainty in the market, gold prices continued to be stabilized by safe-haven demand and strengthened upward. In addition, last week's inflation data was lower than market expectations, which strengthened the prospect of the Fed's interest rate cut. In addition, the monthly chart of the US dollar index has gone out of the 2-year top divergence, suggesting that there is a large and sustained decline in the future market, as well as increased policy uncertainty, which will also provide long-term support for gold prices. Moreover, although the market also expects that tariff policies may push up inflation in the future, US consumer confidence deteriorated sharply in April, and 12-month inflation expectations rose to the highest level since 1981, but this will also enhance gold's anti-inflation appeal and push up safe-haven demand. It is also good for gold prices. Analysts specifically reminded that market liquidity may decline before the Good Friday holiday, and any sudden policy changes may trigger sharp fluctuations. Traders are waiting for the next major fundamental development to drive the gold market, but the technical chart is still bullish. There is still safe-haven demand in the market. Gold is a safe-haven asset in times of political and financial uncertainty. The dollar index was at a nearly three-year low on Tuesday, making gold relatively cheap for buyers holding foreign currencies. Investors are waiting for a speech by Fed Chairman Powell scheduled for Wednesday to look for clues related to interest rates. During the day, attention will be paid to data such as the U.S. retail sales monthly rate in March, the U.S. industrial output monthly rate in March, the U.S. NAHB housing market index in April, and the U.S. commercial inventory monthly rate in February. Although the retail data is expected to be bearish for gold prices, the subsequent overall data is bullish for gold prices. Therefore, the steady trend is still either volatile or continues to rebound and strengthen, and the operation is still biased towards low-multiple bullish.
Analysis of gold market trend:
Technical analysis of gold: Yesterday, the price of gold always fluctuated in the range of 3210 to 3233. At the opening of today, the price of gold broke through the fluctuation range in one fell swoop and showed an accelerated upward trend. So far, it has successfully refreshed the historical high and reached the 3285 line. Gold opened for risk aversion and directly broke through the new high. The short-term adjustment ended and finally completed the adjustment in a fluctuating manner. This kind of strong bullish market with a breakthrough will basically not have a big decline. Since gold has chosen to break upward, the decline of gold now is an opportunity to go long. The first thing to pay attention to now is the top and bottom conversion position of the support line 3245 below!
For intraday short-term trading, the first thing to pay attention to is the support strength near 3245. This position was the previous high point, and pay attention to its top and bottom conversion effect. Secondly, the support level near 3232 should not be ignored. This is the high point of yesterday's fluctuation range. Today's opening price broke through this position and accelerated upward. The top and bottom conversion support role of this position during the decline is worth paying attention to. The 1-hour moving average of gold has begun to turn upward. If the 1-hour moving average continues to diverge upward, the bulls will continue to exert their strength. After gold breaks through 3245, 3245 has formed a short-term support. Go long on dips when it falls back to 3245. The strength of a wave of gold is still there at that time. So after the surge, you must wait patiently for adjustments and continue to go long. Go long when it falls back to around 3248. It is particularly important to point out that the low point of 3211 during the US trading session yesterday is the key support level for the short-term market trend. Once the price effectively falls below this position, it is necessary to be alert that the market may launch a substantial adjustment. On the whole, the short-term operation strategy for gold today is to go long on pullbacks and short on rebounds. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 3285-3290 line of resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 3245-3240 line of support. Friends must keep up with the pace.
Gold operation strategy reference: Strategy 1: Short gold when it rebounds around 3280-3290, target around 3255-3250, and look at 3245 if it breaks.
Strategy 2: Long gold when it pulls back around 3245-3250, target around 3260-3275, and look at 3290 if it breaks.
The opportunity to short gold in the European session has arrive
📌 Driving Event
On Tuesday, US President Trump launched an investigation into the necessity of tariffs on key minerals, the latest move in the expanding trade war. This trade war has affected key areas of the global economy.
📊Comment Analysis
In the morning, gold fell briefly at 3275, and then broke through again.
The current market rises or dives all depend on Trump's words, and today is the 34th trading day since gold rose from 2832 on February 28, and the 8th trading day since it rose from 2956 on April 7. It is likely to be a new round of change time window.
Therefore, I think the current rise is just the main force pulling up and shipping. The European session is alert to the possibility of a sharp decline again! ! !
In terms of the hourly chart, the current 3293 line will be an obvious pressure. The European session recommends actively shorting here! ! !
💰Strategy Package
Short position:
Actively participate at 3290-3300 points, profit target below 3280 points
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the fund account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
XAUUSD(GOLD) NEXT MOVE ?**Detailed analysis** of the Gold Spot (XAU/USD) chart, combining technical insights **with the current geopolitical market backdrop**, particularly the **Trump tariffs escalation**:
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### 🟡 **XAU/USD (Gold) – Technical & Fundamental Outlook**
**Timeframe:** 1-Hour
**Current Price:** $3,296
**Target Price:** $3,500
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### 📌 **Technical Chart Analysis: Bullish Breakout in Play**
From a trader’s lens, this chart illustrates a **classic bullish continuation setup**:
#### 🔺 **Triangle Breakouts**
- The chart highlights two previous **symmetrical triangle patterns**, both of which resolved **to the upside**.
- These triangles signal healthy consolidation before **impulsive bullish rallies**, indicating strong **market structure**.
#### 📈 **Price Action Strength**
- Price recently **broke out** from another mini triangle (~$3,230 zone), confirming bullish momentum.
- The breakout is **sharp and directional**, showing strong buyer interest.
#### 🧱 **Support & Structure**
- Price is respecting an **ascending trendline**, confirming **higher lows** and a consistent **bullish trend**.
- Each consolidation phase was tighter, indicating **volatility compression before explosive moves**.
#### 🎯 **Target Projection: $3,500**
- Based on **measured moves** from previous breakouts and current momentum, $3,500 is a **realistic short-term target**.
- Price remains inside a **bullish channel**, and breakout continuation aligns with the upper resistance projection.
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### 🌍 **Current Market Context: Trump’s Tariff Shock & Safe Haven Demand**
Amid strong technicals, the **macroeconomic backdrop adds fuel to gold’s rally**:
#### 🔥 **Trump's Tariff Escalation**
- Former President **Donald Trump has reactivated aggressive tariff rhetoric**, with reports of a **104% tariff on Chinese imports**, prompting **retaliatory action from China** (an 84% counter-tariff).
- This **reignites U.S.-China trade tensions**, increasing **global market uncertainty**.
#### 🛡️ **Flight to Safety**
- Investors are rapidly **rotating into safe-haven assets**, especially gold, due to:
- Trade war concerns
- Recession expectations
- Dollar instability fears
#### 💬 **Market Sentiment**
> “In times of uncertainty, gold shines brightest. Trump's economic aggression has global investors hedging risks, and XAU/USD is the first in line to benefit.”
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### 💼 **Trading Strategy Summary**
| Component | Details |
|------------------|-------------------------------|
| 📈 Bias | Bullish |
| 💰 Entry Zone | Breakout above $3,230 |
| 🎯 Target | $3,500 |
| 🛑 Stop-Loss | Below $3,180 (tight structure)|
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### ✅ **Conclusion**
With **Trump’s trade war** rhetoric back in motion and **technical confirmation of a breakout**, gold is positioned for another **major rally**. A push toward **$3,500** is not just possible — it’s probable, as long as the structure holds. This is a time to **ride the momentum**, not fight it.
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Gold has risen strongly again. Can it break through the 3300 resEvent summary:
The current gold market presents a triple driving logic: the global central bank's continuous gold purchases constitute long-term support, and the US debt crisis and the risk of US dollar trust form the core upward momentum.
Technical aspects show that the gold price rose strongly after breaking through the key resistance of 3275, and the continuity of the bullish trend is clear, approaching the high of 3300 US dollars.
Level analysis:
Gold continued to break through strongly, with the highest price reaching 3293. After the key resistance of 3275 was effectively broken, there was no retracement, confirming the continuity of the bullish trend. The current gold price has refreshed the historical high, and is only one step away from the integer mark of 3300 US dollars. The technical form shows that the bullish momentum is sufficient, but we need to be vigilant against the risk of high-level stagflation. The current upper resistance is 3295-3310, and it can continue to hold after breaking through the resistance line.
Operation strategy:
Go long at 3285-3290, stop loss at 3280, and look up to 3300-3310.
I am Quaid. After seeing my analysis strategy, no matter you have made profits or losses in the past, I hope you can achieve investment breakthroughs with my help and turn every tide of the gold market into our wealth wave.
The early bird gets the worm.The 1-hour moving average of gold has begun to turn upward. If the 1-hour moving average of gold continues to diverge upward, then the gold bulls will continue to exert their strength. After gold breaks through 3245, then 3245 has formed a short-term support for gold. After gold rises, we must wait patiently for adjustments and continue to go long.
Trading ideas: Buy gold near 3250, stop loss 3240, target 3280