The mouth can't drive gold up
💡Message Strategy
US President Trump announced that the deadline for EU trade negotiations will be extended to July 9, and at the same time withdrew the threat of a 50% tariff on EU goods originally scheduled for June 1. This decision marks a phased easing of US-EU trade tensions, leading to a significant cooling of market risk aversion.
The statement of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen revealed the key reason for the extension: "The EU needs more time to reach a comprehensive agreement that is beneficial to both sides." It is worth noting that just three days ago on May 23, Trump also threatened to impose high tariffs on EU cars and other goods in a tough manner, and even considered wielding the tariff stick against iPhones produced outside the United States. These remarks pushed the gold price up more than 2% in a single day.
📊Technical aspects
At present, the direction of gold is only a correction and decline. The market is not driven by words. The idea of gold trend that has been emphasized last week is to pull back to high altitudes. Facts have proved that gold cannot break through the high pressure position.
All the news is filled with the atmosphere of gold rising. The truth is often in the hands of a few people. We should correctly judge the changes in the market and not blindly follow them.
💰 Strategy Package
Short Position:3340-3350,3360-3370
Goldprice
Gold is about to clarify its trend direction
📊Technical aspects
1. The double-line position of the hourly chart is now in the 3290-3310 area. After the price fell below the double line, it used the lower track of the double line (purple trend line) as suppression and continued to fall and break the low
Then after breaking through the double line, it turned into support, especially after breaking through the repeatedly suppressed purple trend line position 3250, forming an accelerated sprint, and the space amplitude exceeded 100 US dollars
Then the purple trend line position, as the space switching line position, the subsequent space breakthrough will achieve at least 100 US dollars of space switching
2. The four-hour lifeline position is now at 3320. Due to the price surge After the high, there was no increase in volume and acceleration of the rise, but a continuous rise and fall. The four-hour pattern also began to close. The lifeline position is the dividing line. The double-line lower track and the pattern lower track are superimposed in the 3283 area. Special attention should be paid to it. Together with the 3270 position of the hourly chart, it will become the space switching point for the subsequent market.
3. Interestingly, the daily lifeline position is in the 3285 range, which is also the low point of the second half of last week and the final support point determined by the retracement. Multiple supports are superimposed here, which means that the subsequent price can fall below this point and realize the space switching.
💰 Strategy Package
Short Position:3340-3350
XAU/USD 27 May 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 22 May 2025.
In my analysis from 12 May 2025, I noted that price had yet to target the weak internal high, including on the H4 timeframe. This aligns with the ongoing corrective bearish pullback across higher timeframes, so a bearish internal Break of Structure (iBOS) was a likely outcome.
As anticipated, price targeted strong internal low, confirming a bearish iBOS.
Price has remained within the internal range for an extended period and has yet to target the weak internal low. A contributing factor could be the bullish nature of the H4 timeframe's internal range, which has reacted from a discounted level at 50% of the internal equilibrium (EQ).
Intraday Expectation:
Technically price to continue bullish, react at either premium of internal 50% EQ or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 3,120.765.
Alternative scenario:
Price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance and persistent geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Gold plummeted? Here comes the latest analysis.Today, the gold market continued its downward trend. It failed to break through the key resistance level of $3,365 in the early stage, and then fell under pressure. It is a normal price adjustment for the Asian market to break through the previous support level. The current price fluctuates around the strong support of $3,300. Coupled with several news to be released in the United States, the price trend is full of uncertainty. In this period of time, I don’t think it is suitable for shorting.
From the 4-hour chart, gold has insufficient upward momentum. After failing to break through the upward resistance level for a long time, it began to decline.
In the market last week, the price has always fluctuated between $3,330 and $3,365. In the narrow range of fluctuations, once a new trend appears, whether it is upward or downward, it may accelerate the price fluctuation range in a very short time; this is an instant release after accumulating energy. This is why the Asian markets suddenly started to move downward.
From the current market situation, the bulls are under great pressure, which is completely different from the strong upward pattern last week. At present, the trend of gold is more dominated by weak fluctuations.
Based on the current trend, we still follow the strategy of high-altitude and low-volume trading in our operations.
Gold May Undergo Short-Term Correction as USD Rebounds📊 Market Overview
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $3,309/oz after retreating from the $3,350 region during the Asian session today. Selling pressure emerged as U.S. Treasury yields rose and the USD rebounded slightly, despite expectations of potential Fed rate cuts in the near future.
📉 Technical Analysis
• Key Resistance: $3,350
• Nearest Support: $3,290
• EMA 09: Current price is below the EMA 09, indicating a short-term bearish trend.
• The downtrend is confirmed by bearish candlestick patterns and increasing trading volume in recent sessions.
📌 Outlook
Gold may continue its short-term correction if the USD continues to rebound and U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated. However, long-term support factors such as concerns over U.S. national debt and expectations of Fed rate cuts persist.
Gold Rising in the Short Term: Is a Breakout the Goal?Hello to all dear traders!
In general, Gold has gone through a very strong rally for some time, but I don't think this will continue to happen consistently in the future. As we can see, gold prices continue to benefit from various factors in the international market from the USD halting its upward momentum for four consecutive weeks and pulling back, to geopolitical tensions in many regions that have yet to ease. Most recently, the move by the U.S. President regarding the potential imposition of high tariffs on imported goods from the EU.
The market structure is beginning to show signs of exhaustion, as such overbought conditions often lead to significant pullbacks, supporting necessary corrections.
Although the long-term trend remains optimistic, I believe early next week may witness a short-term pullback.
We can see that gold is currently facing rejection just above the upper boundary of the ascending channel on the 4-hour chart, a zone that also aligns with a low-volume area. At this level, around 3,350, I don’t recommend chasing the highs. Unless this zone is clearly broken with confirmation, entering long positions here would be more of an emotional decision than a strategic one.
In my view, this remains a market where buying on dips makes more sense. Consider accumulating on pullbacks and holding until we revisit the 3,500 level once again.
In the long run though the bias remains bullish with potential to challenge the 3,435 and as well as 3,500 in the big picture.
But if you're watching for buys:
Observe price behavior on Monday
Only enter positions when the bullish structure is maintained
Avoid FOMO; buy only when there’s a clear breakout signal with a confirmed candlestick pattern
For sells:
Prioritize when there is a clear bearish rejection candlestick on H4 or Daily
Do not enter if there is no solid confirmation signal
Gold May Face Short-Term Correction at $3,350 Resistance📊 Market Overview:
- Gold is trading around $3,329/oz on May 27, after a slight decline due to President Donald Trump's postponement of the 50% tariffs on the EU until July 9, easing trade tensions.
- However, end-of-month USD selling pressure from portfolio rebalancing and concerns over U.S. debt continue to support gold prices.
📉 Technical Analysis:
- Key Resistance: $3,350
- Nearest Support: $3,295
- Candlestick Patterns / Volume / Momentum: The 14-day RSI is at 57, suggesting bullish momentum persists. However, price is testing strong resistance at $3,350. Failure to break through may lead to a pullback towards $3,295.
📌 Outlook:
Gold may experience a short-term pullback if it fails to break above the $3,350 resistance level and if market sentiment continues to be influenced by geopolitical and monetary policy factors.
💡 Suggested Trading Strategy:
SELL XAU/USD at: $3,345 – $3,350
🎯 TP: $3,330
❌ SL: $3,350
BUY XAU/USD at: $3,295
🎯 TP: $3,310
❌ SL: $3,390
Gold price pullback. How to trade?Information summary:
On Monday, due to Trump's policy changes, high tariffs on the EU were suspended. The market's risk aversion sentiment has declined, and spot gold fell at the opening, but recovered some of its losses in the US market, maintaining a consolidation range of 3320-3355.
When the US market opens, there must be large fluctuations. Gold recovered all the gains on Friday due to the increase in tariffs on the EU on Monday. Then, when the US market opens, it is very likely to rise sharply, and also recover the losses on Friday.
And from the current gold 1-hour chart:
The current trend line of gold has fallen below, and the early trading has also completed the retracement. Therefore, gold may go down next. There is a high probability that it will test the bottom support position of 3310-3300.
From the daily chart:
You can see that the daily chart is currently an important support position near 3300. Once it falls below 3300, it can be officially confirmed that the correction trend is coming. And the trend after the US market opens is critical.
Operation strategy:
Short immediately, stop loss 3335, profit range 3310-3300.
Gold continues to fluctuate. Interval analysis.Market analysis:
Gold opened slightly lower on Monday and fell to around 3331 before rebounding. After being blocked near 3357, it began to fluctuate and fall. The lowest point in the European session fell to around 3324, and then the market stopped falling and fluctuated and rose. The US session continued to rise, and the daily line closed with a small negative line with a lower shadow.
Gold showed a big positive trend last Friday, and closed negative on Monday for adjustment. The current 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average form a golden cross and continue upward. This moving average pattern shows a certain bullish momentum. In the short term, focus on the support of the 5-day moving average, which is currently around 3330. When the price is above this moving average, the market fluctuates mainly on the strong side.
The upper resistance level first looks at around 3365, which is the high point of last Friday. Before the price does not break through this resistance level strongly, the volatile market will remain.
On the whole, today's focus will be on the support of the 3330-3326 area below, and the focus will be on the resistance near 3365 above.
Operation strategy:
Short at rebound near 3365, stop loss at 3375, profit range 3345-3330
Long at retracement near 3326, stop loss at 3316, profit range 3350-3370
Gold Pulls Back Slightly from Highs📊 Market Overview:
Gold (XAU/USD) slightly retreated to around $3,325/oz during the May 26 session, after reaching a two-week high of $3,365. The main reason was the increased investor risk appetite after U.S. President Donald Trump postponed a plan to impose 50% tariffs on EU goods, reducing safe-haven demand for gold.
However, the long-term bullish trend remains supported by a weakening U.S. dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts from major central banks.
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Key Resistance: $3,350 – $3,365
• Nearest Support: $3,325 – $3,285
• EMA: Price remains above the EMA50, indicating a sustained uptrend.
• RSI Indicator: Near 50, giving a neutral signal.
• MACD: Slight bullish signal.
• ADX: 36.998, indicating a strong upward trend.
• Price Pattern: Price is fluctuating within the $3,200 – $3,500 range, with the EMA50 at $3,200 acting as strong support.
📌 Outlook:
Gold may continue to experience a slight short-term correction if market risk appetite remains elevated. However, the long-term uptrend is still supported by a weak USD and expectations of rate cuts.
💡 Suggested Trading Strategy:
🔻 SELL XAU/USD at: $3,350 – $3,365
🎯 TP: $3,300
❌ SL: $3,380
Gold fluctuates at high levels, long and short profit ideas
📌 Driving events
On Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that plans to impose 50% tariffs on the European Union would be postponed until July 9, easing concerns about an imminent escalation in trade hostilities. This development reduced immediate risk aversion in the market, putting pressure on gold prices.
Nevertheless, investors' attention now turns to the FOMC minutes released on Wednesday, which may further clarify the Fed's monetary policy outlook. At the same time, market participants will continue to pay attention to trade negotiations between the United States and Japan and other major economies. Any new tensions or setbacks in these negotiations could quickly restore demand for gold as a protective hedge.
📊Comment Analysis
Gold prices fell slightly after the official announcement of the tariff extension and continued to climb
💰Strategy Package
🔥Selling area: 3388-3390 SL 3395
TP1: $3376
TP2: $3363
TP3: $3350
🔥Buying area: $3301-$3299 SL $3294
TP1: $3312
TP2: $3325
TP3: $3338
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the capital account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the capital account
USD/JPY(20250526)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
Fed's Goolsbee: 50% EU tariffs are an order of magnitude different from the current situation. Such a high tariff level will have a serious impact on the supply chain. In the short term, the Fed needs to wait for the situation to become clear, and the threshold for action is high before then. There is still a possibility of rate cuts in the next 10 to 16 months
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
143.04
Support and resistance levels:
144.77
144.12
143.70
142.37
141.95
141.30
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 143.04, consider buying, the first target price is 143.70
If the price breaks through 142.37, consider selling, the first target price is 141.95
Analysis of the new round of gold trendMarket news:
Spot gold fluctuated in early Asian trading on Monday (May 26). After US President Trump postponed his plan to impose a 50% tariff on the European Union on Sunday, US stock index futures rose strongly by more than 1% on Monday, putting international gold under slight pressure. However, surveys show that most analysts and retail investors tend to be bullish on the future of gold.Global stock markets plummeted last Friday, and the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset increased with geopolitical and economic uncertainties. Trump once again issued a tariff threat, and coupled with the weakening of the US dollar, investors sought to hedge in gold. The price of gold rose by more than 2% last Friday, the best performance in six weeks! This week, the market will be closed on Monday due to Memorial Day. Key data include: Tuesday: April durable goods orders, May consumer confidence index, New Zealand Reserve Bank interest rate decision Wednesday: Federal Reserve May FOMC meeting minutes (pay attention to the softening signal of interest rate cut stance) Thursday: Initial jobless claims, US first quarter GDP revision, existing home sales, Friday: Core PCE price index (Fed's preferred inflation indicator)
Operation ideas:
Short-term gold 3330-3340 long, stop loss 3312, target 3350-3370;
Short-term gold 3350-3355 short, stop loss 3377, target 3320-3300;
Key points:
First support level: 3325, second support level: 3313, third support level: 3290
First resistance level: 3368, second resistance level: 3387, third resistance level: 3410
Technical review: Gold closed strongly on the weekly chart, and the daily chart formed a two-yang and one-yin multi-cannon pattern. At present, the daily chart MA10/7-day moving average keeps opening and gradually moves up to 3270/90, and the price stands above the 3300 mark Bollinger band middle track, and the MA5-day moving average moves up to 3320. The RSI indicator runs above the middle axis, and the price runs in a buy structure. The Bollinger Bands of the short-term four-hour chart and the hourly chart open upward, and the price is running in the middle and upper track of the Bollinger Bands. The MA10/7-day moving average four-hour chart remains open upward. The trading idea of the gold week at the beginning is to buy at a low price and sell at a high price. Support 3336/25. The far-end support hourly chart rising trend line 3313 and the daily chart MA7 day moving average and the Bollinger Band middle track position 3290. The upper resistance 3368/3386 far-end resistance previous high 3410/35 top and bottom conversion position.
Today's analysis:
Gold opened lower in the early trading on Monday, and the risk aversion sentiment was alleviated. Since the US market closed early today, gold may not have a large unilateral market. Today, it is still mainly selling at high prices and buying at low prices. Be flexible in operation, don't just buy or sell blindly, and adjust at any time according to the strength of the market! The 1-hour moving average of gold continues to buy, but the momentum begins to slow down, so gold may start to fluctuate. In addition, the risk aversion sentiment is relieved, so gold may start to fluctuate with a high probability. Pay attention to the suppression of last week's high point 3368 on the top, and pay attention to the support near 3313 on the bottom. Gold can be sold at a high price and bought at a low price within the range today. If the news changes and breaks through the range of fluctuations, then follow the trend.
XAU/USD latest analysisTechnical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
3336
Support and resistance levels:
3414
3385
3366
3306
3287
3258
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 3366, consider buying, the first target price is 3385
If the price breaks through 3336, consider selling, the first target price is 3306
Gold bulls advance as expected Mainly go long on pullback.Today, gold opened lower and fell, reaching the lowest level of 3331. Then the bulls exerted their strength, reaching the highest level of 3356 and then adjusted back. The overall trend was highly consistent with the expected judgment. Looking back at the market last week, the technical side of gold continued the bullish pattern, and the oscillating upward trend was significant. From the daily level, the price repeatedly tested around the 3200 mark at the beginning of the week, and finally stabilized successfully, laying a solid foundation for the bull market. On Friday, it was supported by the 3280 mark, continuing the strong oscillating upward trend, forming a reverse middle Yang pattern, and the daily K line closed with an oscillating upward break of the middle Yang, fully demonstrating the short-term bullish pattern of gold prices, and bullish expectations continued to heat up.
Based on the current gold trend analysis, the focus below is on the 3330-3320 range support, and the focus above is on the 3380-3400 resistance. In terms of overall strategy, the bullish thinking is maintained before breaking 3320 to avoid blindly guessing the top.
Gold plunges. Downside meets?Spot gold fluctuates at high levels during the Asian session and is currently trading around $3,330.
I think spot gold is expected to fall below the immediate support level of $3,330 per ounce and fall towards $3,284.
Completion occurs near the key resistance level of $3,366, which is reinforced by similar resistance established by the descending trend line. Working together with these obstacles is another obstacle, namely $3,355, which is the retracement level of the downtrend from $3,501 to $3,120.
The bearish divergence of the hourly RSI confirms that the rally has been exhausted and a sharp correction is imminent.
Based on the changes in the Asian market today, an analysis was conducted. I hope my analysis can help you turn losses into profits in the trading market.
Operation strategy:
Short at $3,340, stop loss at $3,355, and profit range of $3,310-3,300.
How to plan for gold price box fluctuations🗞News side:
1. The situation between Russia and Ukraine escalated again
2. Israel in the Gaza Strip was once again criticized by the international community
📈Technical aspects:
After gold opened lower today, it fell into a small box-shaped shock in the short term. It seems that the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the Middle East over the weekend did not have further impact on the gold price. The gold daily level closed with a positive line again, injecting new vitality into the trading space last week. These two rounds of rise not only successfully crossed the resistance level of 3250 last Monday, but also further broke through the suppression of 3320, showing a clear upward trend. The current volatility is more like a correction after breaking through the previous high! Last Friday, the price failed to break through the 3370 line several times and encountered resistance continuously, which shows that the pressure from above is still relatively strong! Due to the particularity of today's market trading, the technical side of the hourly chart shows a downward trend. The European session temporarily focuses on the 3350-3355 line resistance, and the 3330-3320 support is seen below.
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold May Face Short-Term Correction Amid Strong Resistance📊 Market Overview:
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $3,335, retreating from a two-week high of $3,345.48. The US Dollar's weakness, driven by fiscal concerns and President Trump's extension of the EU tariff deadline to July 9, has supported gold prices. However, the easing of global trade tensions has limited the precious metal's upside .
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Key Resistance: $3,350, $3,364
• Nearest Support: $3,330, $3,300
• EMA 09: Price is trading near the EMA 09, indicating a neutral trend.
• RSI (14): 69.311 – approaching overbought territory, suggesting potential correction.
• MACD (12,26): 13.57 – bullish signal, but momentum is slowing.
• Williams %R: -17.476 – in overbought zone, indicating possible short-term pullback .
📌 Outlook:
Gold may experience a short-term correction if it fails to break above the strong resistance at $3,350. Sustained trading below this level could lead to selling pressure, especially as technical indicators point to overbought conditions.
💡 Suggested Trading Strategy:
• SELL XAU/USD at: $3,345 – $3,350
🎯 TP: $3,330
❌ SL: $3,355
• BUY XAU/USD at: $3,300 – $3,310
🎯 TP: $3,340
❌ SL: $3,290
Trump's tariff measures trigger market shocks
📌 Driving events
Last Friday, as Trump threatened to raise tariffs on the European Union to 50%, and also pointed the finger at smartphone manufacturers such as Apple and Samsung, the market's risk aversion sentiment suddenly heated up, and spot gold closed up nearly 2% on the day.
On Sunday local time, US President Trump announced after a call with European Commission President von der Leyen that he would extend the deadline for the European Union to face 50% tariffs to July 9. Trump told reporters on his way back to Washington on Sunday: "We had a very pleasant call, and I agree to postpone the deadline."
Bloomberg analysis said that there are signs that US President Trump may relax his radical stance on EU trade, which will affect gold's safe-haven status.
At the geopolitical level, the conflict between Israel and Iran is imminent. The Israeli army's shooting of a diplomatic delegation has triggered international condemnation. Netanyahu has maintained a tough stance in the Israeli-Kazakh conflict; Trump's mediation of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has been frustrated. The Wall Street Journal revealed that when he spoke with the European side, he said that Putin believed that the Russian army was "winning", which contradicted his public statement. This week, the market focus shifted to the Fed's policy minutes, the Bank of Japan's rate hike expectations, European and American economic data, and OPEC+'s production increase plan. The interweaving of trade frictions, debt risks and geopolitical conflicts has kept the uncertainty of the global pattern high.
📊Comment Analysis
The first support level for gold prices may be in the range of $3290-3300/ounce. If it falls below the above support, the next support for gold prices will be $3250/ounce and $3200/ounce (50-day moving average). On the upside, the first resistance for gold prices is $3370/ounce. If this obstacle is overcome, the next resistance for gold prices will be $3430/ounce and $3500/ounce (historical high).
Labaron will digest a series of economic data to be released by the United States this week, such as durable goods and home sales, as well as the consumer confidence index. The U.S. stock market will be closed on Monday due to the Memorial Day holiday.
💰Strategy Package
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone : 3388- 3390 SL 3395
TP1: $3376
TP2: $3363
TP3: $3350
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3301- $3299 SL $3294
TP1: $3312
TP2: $3325
TP3: $3338
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the capital account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the capital account
XAU/USD Technical Analysis – 4H Chart Overview🔍 Current Market Position
Price: $3,358.125
Currently near resistance zone ($3,420–$3,470)
Historical reaction in this zone shows multiple rejections 🛑
📌 Key Levels
🔺 Resistance Point: ~$3,420–$3,470
Rejected here 3 times ➡️ strong supply zone
🔻 Support Level: ~$3,150
Past price bounced here multiple times 🟠
💪 Strong Support: ~$2,950
Major bounce seen in early May 👊
🧭 Pattern Outlook
Repeated resistance test 🔁 ➡️ potential double/triple top
📉 Blue arrow suggests bearish projection towards $3,050–$2,950
If support at $3,150 fails 🔓, expect deeper drop to strong support
🔮 Forecast
🔽 Bearish Bias
High chance of reversal from resistance
Target: $3,050 and possibly $2,950 🎯
⚠️ Watch for
Price Action at Resistance: Rejection = short opportunity 🔧
Break of $3,150 Support: May accelerate bearish move 🧨
📌 Summary:
Market shows clear resistance rejection history. If it plays out again, we may see a strong drop toward lower support zones. Ideal for short setups 📉💼
XAU/USD 26-30 May 2025 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis:
Swing Structure -> Bullish.
Internal Structure -> Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 16 March 2025.
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024 I mentioned (below) that price could potentially print higher-highs in order to reposition CHoCH. This is exactly how price printed. CHoCH positioning has been brought significantly closer to current price action. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a shortened blue dotted horizontal line.
The remainder of my analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 09 February 2025.
Price has printed a further bullish iBOS.
Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dashed line.
Price Action Analysis:
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had repositioned previous CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks. Current CHoCH positioning is quite a distance away from price, therefore, it would be viable if price continued bullish to reposition ChOCH.
Note:
It is highly unlikely price will "crash" as many analysts are predicting. My view is this is merely a corrective wave of the primary trend.
Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty and potential repricing of Gold.
Weekly Chart:
Daily Analysis:
Swing -> Bullish.
Internal -> Bullish.
Analysis and Bias remains the same as Analysis dated 11 May 2025.
Since my last weekly analysis price has finally printed a bearish CHoCH.
This is the first indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Price should now technically trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or Daily demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s continued dovish stance, coupled with escalating geopolitical uncertainties, is expected to sustain elevated market volatility, influencing both intraday and broader trend developments.
Additionally, price action may be further shaped by U.S. policy decisions, including measures enacted under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic policymaking could introduce further uncertainty, contributing to the ongoing repricing dynamics within the gold market.
Daily Chart:
H4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
XAUUSD DAILY OUTLOOK – MAY 26, 2025📍 Current Price: 3,358
Bias: Bullish momentum with “caution” – ready for liquidity sweeps and potential intraday trap moves.
📈 Quick PA/Trend/Risk Check
Trend: Bullish, but price hit major supply; expect high volatility.
Price Action: Multiple daily wicks = indecision, liquidity traps both sides.
RSI: Still in overbought territory on D1, but not at extremes.
EMAs: All trending up, with 21/50 EMA as bounce supports below price.
🌍 Macro/Mood/News
Geopolitics: Middle East + Fed talks = increased headline risk, no clear direction.
News: US inflation, FOMC, and “risk-off” spikes could trigger traps into supply or deep sweeps into demand.
⚡️ How to Use
Don’t chase breakouts!
Wait for M5/M15 confirmation (BOS/CHoCH or engulf) at the above zones.
Watch for liquidity sweeps and fakeouts, especially into 3,415–3,440 and 3,305–3,325.
Use RSI/EMA/FVG as extra confluence for your entry confirmation.
🎯 Key Levels Table – Copy/Paste Ready
POI Level Bias
Premium Trap 3,415–3,440 Watch for fake breakout/sell
Sell Zone 3,388–3,408 Short if rejected strongly
S/R Flip 3,360–3,375 PA Magnet
Support #1 3,305–3,325 Bullish bounce
Support #2 3,199–3,220 Bullish bounce
Deep Discount 3,012–3,040 Last-resort buy
Stay focused, don’t force trades – sniper mode only!
Drop a comment, follow, and join the conversation!
— GoldFxMinds (GoldMindsFX)