GOLD - gold price cannot cool down yetForecast
Lukman Otunuga, leader marketplace analyst at FXTM, predicts that with buyers presently having a bet on simply one Fed price reduce in 2024, the marketplace can be tilting in a bearish direction.
Lukman Otunuga stated that if the May PCE file is launched better than marketplace forecasts, this will deal every other blow to expectancies of Fed hobby price easing, inflicting gold expenses to fall even deeper.
But analysts expect that traders are nevertheless having a bet on gold expenses to boom withinside the close to future. Forecasts say that with the aid of using the give up of the week, gold rate will boom to 2,375 USD/ounce./.
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Goldprice
GOLD increases - geopolitical tensions and FED interest ratesAccording to analysts, the USD weakens best withinside the brief term. More importantly at the prevailing time, the gold marketplace is popping its eyes to the May US non-public intake expenditure index (PCE) record to be posted on June 1.
Most professionals accept as true with that this index will boom greater than formerly forecast, making the time to reduce hobby quotes via way of means of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) more and more more distant.
Therefore, CEO Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Global the Forex market found out that valuable metals have become very unstable for owners, inflicting traders to more and more more depart and now not be interested by the gold marketplace. .
In addition, the lower in gold call for from Chinese traders and the easing of the effect of geopolitical dangers after the helicopter crash that killed the Iranian President also are damaging factors. for valuable metals.
Gold charge forecast
Lukman Otunuga, leader marketplace analyst at FXTM, predicts that with buyers presently making a bet on simply one Fed price reduce in 2024, the marketplace can be tilting in a bearish direction.
Lukman Otunuga stated that if the May PCE record is launched better than marketplace forecasts, this will deal some other blow to expectancies of Fed hobby price easing, inflicting gold costs to fall even deeper.
But analysts expect that traders are nevertheless making a bet on gold costs to boom withinside the close to future. Forecasts say that via way of means of the cease of the week, gold charge will boom to 2,375 USD/ounce.
Gold (XAU/USD) ForecastThe provided chart is a daily candlestick chart for Gold Spot (XAU/USD) on OANDA. Here’s a detailed analysis and summary of the chart:
Timeframe and Data:
- Timeframe: Daily (1D)
- Data Range: From early March 2024 to late May 2024
Price Analysis:
- Current Price: $2,355.55
- Price Movement: The price has shown an overall uptrend from March to mid-May 2024, followed by a consolidation and potential bearish reversal.
Technical Patterns and Indicators:
- Divergence Pattern:
- The chart indicates a divergence pattern, where the price has been making higher highs, but the volume has been decreasing. This divergence between price and volume suggests a weakening uptrend and potential bearish reversal.
- Resistance and Support Levels:
- Resistance Levels:
- A major resistance zone is marked around $2,397.52.
- The area just below the recent highs, approximately $2,350.00 to $2,370.00, is acting as an immediate resistance.
- Support Levels:
- Immediate support is marked around $2,300.00 to $2,320.00, which coincides with a previous consolidation area.
- The next significant support level is indicated at $2,283.39.
- Trendlines:
- An upward-sloping trendline can be seen connecting the higher lows from mid-March to mid-May 2024, suggesting an uptrend. However, the recent price action is testing this trendline.
- Another dotted trendline at the bottom highlights decreasing volume over time, reinforcing the divergence pattern.
- Sell Trigger and Target:
- A sell signal is suggested by the divergence pattern, indicating that gold may fall this week.
- Target Price: The sell target (TP) is marked at $2,280.00, suggesting a bearish move towards this level after breaking the immediate support.
Key Levels:
- Resistance Levels:
- Major resistance at around $2,397.52.
- Immediate resistance at approximately $2,350.00 to $2,370.00.
- Support Levels:
- Immediate support at around $2,300.00 to $2,320.00.
- Further support at the significant level of $2,283.39.
Trade Setup:
- Bearish Scenario: The divergence pattern suggests a potential bearish scenario. If the price breaks below the immediate support level of $2,300.00, a move towards the sell target at $2,280.00 is likely. The weakening volume adds to the bearish sentiment.
- Bullish Scenario: For a bullish outlook, the price needs to break and sustain above the resistance zone around $2,370.00 to $2,397.52. This could invalidate the divergence pattern and suggest further upside potential.
Conclusion:
The chart for Gold Spot (XAU/USD) indicates a potential bearish scenario with the formation of a divergence pattern, where higher prices are met with lower volumes. A break below the immediate support level of $2,300.00 could trigger a move towards the sell target at $2,280.00. Traders should look for confirmed breakouts from key levels to make informed trading decisions. The resistance zone around $2,350.00 to $2,397.52 and the support levels at $2,300.00 and $2,283.39 are crucial levels to watch.
Gold bounced back on MondayLast week, global gold expenses continuously "plunged" after breaking all of the data conquered in April. Kitco News`s cutting-edge weekly gold survey effects confirmed that extra than 3-quarters of specialists consider gold expenses are solid or will fall withinside the close to term, even as 1/2 of of retail investors nevertheless consider the treasured metallic may want to pass better withinside the coming days.
Looking at gold's fluctuations remaining week, senior marketplace analyst Darin Newsom of Barchart.com stated that gold is probably to say no this week.
Sharing the identical view, Bannockburn Global the Forex market CEO Marc Chandler additionally sees similarly disadvantage dangers for gold withinside the close to future. According to Chandler, the cause gold set a report excessive early remaining week at 2,450 USD/ounce changed into due to the fact the marketplace reacted to statistics associated with the twist of fate that claimed the lifestyles of the President of Iran. However, the power of the USD prompted gold to be offered off and plummet to almost 2,three hundred USD/ounce.
Besides, the lower in call for for gold from Chinese buyers is likewise a downside for this treasured metallic. Chandler forecasts that gold's preliminary resistance this week is at $2,375/ounce. Support is withinside the variety of $2,275 to $2,three hundred according to ounce.
GOLD WEEKLY ANALYSIS Hello traders, here is a setup of Gold for the upcoming week as you can see the price of Gold right now is neutral, and if we use Support and Resistance you can see the price has created a support zone and a resistance zone so now we have to wait until price breaks on of these zones then we can look for opportunities to go Long or Short.
XAUUSD Forecast - Short Term SellThe chart shows the 4-hour candlestick pattern for Gold Spot (XAUUSD) against the US Dollar on the OANDA platform, with the current price at approximately $2340.26.
Key Observations:
1. Current Price and Recent Movement:
- The current price is $2340.26.
- The recent price action shows a decline of 1.16%, indicating a short-term bearish trend.
2. Trendline and Support Levels:
- There is a clear ascending trendline that has been acting as support since early April.
- The price has recently broken below this ascending trendline, suggesting potential further downside.
3. Support and Resistance Levels:
- Immediate Resistance: Around $2397.515, where the price has previously encountered resistance.
- Immediate Support: At approximately $2279.895, a previous low and potential support level.
4. Possible Scenarios:
- Bullish Scenario:
- If the price manages to hold above the immediate support at $2279.895 and breaks back above the ascending trendline, it could retest the resistance at $2397.515.
- Bearish Scenario:
- If the price continues to fall and breaches the support at $2279.895, it could see further declines.
5. Volume and Market Sentiment:
- The recent drop below the trendline with a significant decline suggests a bearish sentiment in the market.
- Monitoring volume and any potential reversal patterns around support levels will be crucial for determining future price movements.
Summary:
The 4-hour chart for XAUUSD shows that gold is currently experiencing a bearish trend, having recently broken below a significant ascending trendline. The price is facing immediate resistance at $2397.515 and has support at $2279.895. The breach of the trendline suggests potential further downside unless the price can reclaim this trendline and move higher, targeting the resistance. Traders should watch for a possible rebound at the support level or a continuation of the bearish trend if support fails to hold.
Gold fell by more than $100 in two days and continues to be bear
There is no right or wrong in the market, the only one who is wrong is you. When you find that the direction is reversed, get out immediately. Don't take chances. Just hold on to the profits, and you can achieve long-term and stable profits.
At the beginning of this week, gold directly broke the all-time high and sprinted to the 2450 mark, and then entered the high range sweep. The low point was flat at 2406, and the high point gradually moved downward from 2447 to 2434, forming a convergent triangle range.
After the price surged higher on Wednesday and determined that the resistance began to come under pressure, it fell below the convergence triangle and fell back to the previous rising channel range.
The key point here is to fall below the triangle range and fall back to the channel range.
The upper rail of the channel 2417 was used as a suppression to start the heavy volume decline, and the decline accelerated to the lower rail of the channel 2382. Of course, this is not the end, but a new beginning.
Yesterday Thursday, the price suppressed 2384 and further fell below the low, maintaining the rhythm of a sweeping decline. It continued to fall and broke below the low in late trading until it hit 2325 in early trading today on Friday.
That is to say, in just two trading days, gold fell by more than 100 US dollars, completing the heavy-volume decline in one go!
The support and pressure levels of gold in each cycle:
The gold weekly support level is 2164, the gold daily support level is 2341, the gold 4-hour support level is 2379 area, and the gold 1-hour pressure level is 2348 area.
Today’s gold recommendation: short gold around 2348, stop loss at 2353, and take profit at 2336
XAU/USD 24 May 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a bullish BOS.
After bullish BOS, expectation is for price to pullback.
As previously mentioned, price was showing very early signs of pullback, however, we did not have indication or confirmation.
I also previously mentioned that first indication, but not confirmation, would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH. The CHoCH line is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms pullback initiation.
Price is now in discount of 50% EQ and close to a H4 demand zone where price we expect to see a reaction. However, price has pulled back deeper mitigating the whole H4 demand zone and beyond. This could indicate that price was seeking liquidity to the extreme of the H4 demand zone.
Conversely, if price cannot sustain its bullish momentum, it may seek to mitigate the H4 demand zone below.
Intraday expectation: Scenario one: Price to continue bullish to target weak internal high
Scenario two: Price to continue bearish and react at H4 POI below to then target weak internal high which is denoted with a blue dashed line.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price has printed a series of bearish iBOS' (Internal breaks of structure).
After every iBOS price is expected to pull back.
Once price has printed bearish CHoCH we can establish internal high.
Intraday expectation: Internal range has yet to be established, however, internal structure is bearish. Once internal range has been establish price to eventually target weak internal low.
M15 Chart:
China's Gold Rush Reshaping Global Markets Through Record DemandChina’s gold buying surge has driven prices to record highs above $2,400 per ounce. Amid global uncertainties like the Ukraine invasion and the Gaza conflict, Chinese investors have flocked to gold as traditional investments falter. This trend is supported by retail buyers like Xena Lin, who purchase affordable gold "beans," and institutional investors including the Chinese central bank, which has increased gold reserves for 17 consecutive months. China's influence, fueled by shifting economic confidence and reduced reliance on the US dollar, has transformed the gold market, driving nearly a 50% price increase since late 2022. Despite high interest rates and a strong US dollar, gold prices continue to rise, cementing China's dominance in the market.
Main Points:
* China's surging demand for gold is driving prices to new highs, fueled by individual investors and the central bank.
* This trend is driven by uncertainty in global markets and a desire to diversify away from traditional investments like real estate and stocks.
* China's central bank is strategically increasing its gold reserves, reducing reliance on the US dollar.
* This sustained demand from China is expected to continue shaping the gold market for the foreseeable future.
Supporting details :
* Retail investors like Xena Lin are buying gold in new forms like "gold beans."
* The central bank has increased its gold reserves for 17 consecutive months.
* This trend defies traditional factors that would typically suppress gold prices, like rising interest rates.
Gold prices fell for the third consecutive dayGold rate has reduced for the third consecutive day If calculated from the height region of 245x
.In the global marketplace, valuable metals retreated to round 2,326 USD/ounce, down greater than forty USD in line with ounce as compared to the preceding session.
According to analysts, global gold costs plummeted whilst the marketplace diminished expectancies for americaA Federal Reserve (FED) to reduce hobby fees. The USD index expanded sharply to 105.09 points. UOB Group specialists expect that the FED will begin reducing hobby fees subsequent September, and there can be handiest greater hobby charge cuts this year, in September and November 2024.
GOLD: On the way $2500,Technical and Fundamentals Strong BullishOANDA:XAUUSD
Price continued the uptrend as we had advised in our previous chart analysis, however, as the price reached $2443 where many big banks and institutional buyers cashed out led price to drop significantly. However, we expect price to grow towards $2500 which area remain a next big bull run. Currently, both fundamental and technical indicates further growth in the price. The price can rebound from 2406.
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Team Setupsfx_
Is gold price selling or buying? I think it's like this
MCX:GOLD1! OANDA:XAUUSD COMEX:GC1! TVC:GOLD
Bombarded by the Fed's comments, the market ended its ultra-short-term bullish trend. Reverse downward. It is still continuing to fall. Gold price is at the critical stage of 2370.
Policy was tightened and the deadline for interest rate cuts was once again extended. It directly boosted the US dollar and shot up to 104.96 in the short term.
At the same time, the European Central Bank sent an assist and is expected to cut interest rates in June. The side boosted the dollar again.
In terms of operation, we still need to observe whether the support near 2370 below is effective. If it is effective in the short term, we need to pay attention to the target position near 2388. If the impact of the news intensifies, you need to pay attention to the targets below 2354-2358.
Stay tuned for real-time trading signals from the top trading circles.
XAU/USD 23 May 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a bullish BOS.
After bullish BOS, expectation is for price to pullback.
As previously mentioned, price was showing very early signs of pullback, however, we did not have indication or confirmation.
I also previously mentioned that first indication, but not confirmation, would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH. The CHoCH line is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms pullback initiation.
Price is now in discount of 50% EQ and close to a H4 demand zone where would expect to see a reaction.
Intraday expectation: Price to continue bearish and react at H4 POI's to then target weak internal high which is denoted with a blue dashed line.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price has printed a bearish iBOS (Internal break of structure).
After iBOS price is expected to pull back.
Intraday expectation dated 21 May 2024 was for price to continue bullish. React at either premium of 50% EQ or M15 POI both of which were positioned closely before targeting weak internal low which was denoted with a blue dashed line.
Price printed as expected and printed a bearish iBOS.
Price has continued bearish and we are now trading within an internal high and fractal low.
Intraday expectation: We are expecting price to pullback. First indication, but not confirmation of pullback initiation is a bullish CHoCH which is denoted with a blue dotted line. Price to continue bullish, react at premium of 50% before targeting weak internal low which is currently a fractal low.
M15 Chart:
Modern trends are completely tilted towards SELLINGGOLD, as I shared yesterday, has dropped deeper than I expected. With the modern Trend being absolutely at the SELL side, these days I will nevertheless watch for right and clean possibilities to SELL GOLD following the Trend.
>Today I will quickly Buy GOLD consistent with the Oversold RSI Point at the M30 and H1 frames
At this rate, anyone must check with BUY GOLD round Area 2358>2362
SL 2355
TP 2368>238x
As I shared ultimate week, after the GOLD fee units a brand new height of 244x, there'll without a doubt be a fee lower of 20>40. So as of yesterday, to date GOLD has offered out greater than 50 prices. So with this wave rhythm, I handiest wish that GOLD can boom in fee through approximately 10>20. Everyone quickly BUY small Vol and perhaps DCA from 4>6 for 1 order. I will nevertheless watch to promote GOLD whilst there may be a response above the 238x area!!!
gold market for todayI replace Gold`s waves and conduct as much as the existing time for all of us to observe. My evaluation of psychology and conduct stays similar to yesterday. As for the maximum current Buy timing fee, I am presently observing. Focus on 2 fee degrees with values 01-03 and 93-95. For those 2 fee degrees, I additionally recall plenty among optimization (lacking orders and small SL). (Maximum SL is round 89.5, minimal is round 89.5). degree 92). Because this region is pretty large, dividing it into every region for timing and tightly dealing with orders in excessive zones is a solution (transient SL and control whilst the fee runs). For the expenses I offer, I fee the extent of being capable of control orders pretty excessive (reaction), however, for the impulse wave to attain the tager relies upon at the real marketplace information taking place. Every setup we've got We have to observe control rules.
XAU/USD 22 May 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
Analysis/bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 21 May 2024
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a bullish BOS.
After bullish BOS, expectation is for price to pullback.
I previously commented that price to continue bullish and react at nested Daily and H4 supply levels, which price did.
However, price has continued bullish creating all-time-highs.
Price is showing very early signs of pullback, however, as yet we have no indication or confirmation.
First indication, but not confirmation, would be for price to print a bearish CHoCH. The CHoCH line is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Intraday expectation: Scenario one: Price to continue bullish, create new high which would bring CHoCH closer to recent price action.
Scenario two: As mentioned above, price is showing very early signs of pullback, however, as yet, we have no indication or confirmation, therefore, price to continue bearish, print bearish CHoCH to indicate pullback initiation. Price to then react at either discount of 50% EQ or H4 demand levels before targeting weak internal high.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price has printed a bearish iBOS (Internal break of structure).
After iBOS price is expected to pull back.
First indication, but not confirmation of pullback initiation is for price to print a bullish CHoCH. Price has printed a bullish CHoCH which is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Yesterday's intraday expectation was for price to continue bullish. React at either premium of 50% EQ or M15 POI both of which are positioned closely before targeting weak internal low which was, and still remains denoted with a blue dashed line.
Price printed as expected but did not manage to breach and close below weak internal low.
Intraday expectation: Price to target weak internal low.
M15 Chart:
Gold price trend analysis and plan on the 13th
There wasn't a lot of good news over the weekend that prompted gold to rise sharply this week. On the contrary, gold continued to fall on Monday because of gold's surge. Perhaps this is good news for bears. The trend of the chart then saw a sharp correction due to the digestion of the news, and the current position is oscillating around 2343. Put aside the impact of news. The current support of the trend is also located near here. I personally think that 2330-2335 is a suitable buying range. Pay attention to controlling risks during operation.
GOLD continue to maintain growth in the short term#GOLD: Gold rate the day before today went as predicted while it examined the 2410 region after which extended again. Observing at the H4 body after you may see a bullish candlestick sample after the doj candle round 2416. The situation suggests that GOLD is predicted to preserve to growth withinside the brief time period so that you can recall shopping for up. with GOLD consultation today. Target is again as much as 2430-2440