XAU/USD Bull or Bear ? Looking at yesterday's chart, gold dropped by 800 points due to tensions between Lebanon and Israel. However, today it has started climbing back up and isn't showing signs of falling. Let's see what the market indicates next..
Goldprice
Gold price analysis Asia-Europe session November 27Gold prices reacted strongly in the US session price zone last night around 2640, considered an important port zone of today's Asian trading session. When this zone is still held, there will be some retreat to the breakout zone of 2632 this morning and attract some buying force to push the price back up to 2658-2660. In case of breaking 2632, the downtrend will be determined and the resistance zones of 2618-2605 will become temporary support levels.
gold upit seems XAUUSD going uptrend again, use the stop loss where implemented. TP2 will Triger if it can break the new ATH with an strong bullish candle, after that the new target will be around 3000$
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The bears are strong at the end of the year! H1 downtrend⭐️Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold (XAU/USD) dropped over 3% on Monday, wiping out much of last week’s strong rally, which had marked its best performance since March 2023. The decline was driven by Scott Bessent's nomination as US Treasury Secretary and reports suggesting Israel was nearing a ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, sparking a global risk-on sentiment. This overshadowed slight weakness in the US Dollar and pressured the precious metal.
However, the decline paused near the $2,600 level during the Asian session on Tuesday as renewed safe-haven demand emerged following President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats. Even so, expectations of a less dovish Federal Reserve, rising US Treasury yields, and renewed USD strength may limit gold’s recovery. Traders now await the release of the FOMC meeting minutes for further direction.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
The combination of many factors causes gold prices to almost certainly continue to decline: Fibo H1, seller liquidity, touching EMA, trendline H1
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2646 - $2648 SL $2651 scalping
TP1: $2640
TP2: $2630
TP3: $2620
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2688 - $2690 SL $2695
TP1: $2675
TP2: $2660
TP3: $2650
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2607 - $2605 SL $2600
TP1: $2615
TP2: $2622
TP3: $2630
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
XAU sideway - in DOWN range below zone 2646SCALPING XAU / USD
⭐️Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Optimism surrounding Scott Bessent's nomination as US Treasury Secretary and progress on the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement put significant pressure on gold prices at the start of the week.
Expectations that Bessent will adopt a gradual approach to tariffs to address the budget deficit drove a sharp decline in US Treasury bond yields, further weakening the US Dollar.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold moves sideways, stuck in the 2600 - 2646 range, still in a downtrend
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2630 - $2632 SL $2635
TP1: $2620
TP2: $2610
TP3: $2600
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
Follow the trend and sell on ralliesGold has been jumping up and down with huge fluctuations. Yesterday, gold plummeted because Israel and Lebanon are about to cease fire, and the Trump team gave a time point to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, so the risk aversion sentiment subsided and traders took profits at high positions, causing gold to plummet by 100 points in a single day. However, the short-term news expectations have been digested. The more chaotic geopolitical pattern still supports the gold price, so the decline is limited. Continue to pay attention to the support near 2600!
After gold fell and broke through the Asian session yesterday, our trading ideas began to turn to short. Gold fell sharply at 2680 as expected. Gold is now turning to short. Gold rebounds and continues to be short. Rebounds are opportunities for shorts. Gold is now falling from a high level, and the decline may have just begun.
The 1-hour moving average of gold has begun to turn around, and shorts may start to exert their strength. Gold rebounds below 2637 and continues to be short at highs.
First support: 2612, second support: 2600, third support: 2589
First resistance: 2630, second resistance: 2640, third resistance: 2655
Trading strategy:
BUY: 2604-2606
SELL: 2637-2639
Gold Lost Steam as New US Administration to Take World StageCOMEX: Micro Gold Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! )
On Monday, gold prices tumbled 3% on reports of Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire and the nomination of Scott Bessent as the U.S. Treasury Secretary. Spot gold fell 3.4% to $2,619.43 per ounce. COMEX gold futures shed 3.4% to $2,620.8.
As a safe-haven investment, gold holds strong appeal with the rise of geopolitical crisis. After the US presidential election, investors anticipated that both the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East neared end. The new Treasury pick reduces the risk of escalating trade conflicts, as we have seen in Mr. Trump’s first term. Overall, gold falls on anticipation of lower geopolitical risks in the second Trump presidency.
Where would gold prices go from here? I find it useful to analyze the 5-year price trends and identify key factors driving gold prices up and down.
From December 2019 to October 2024, golds prices rose 88%. Gold’s recent plunge started in late October, as market anticipated a Trump win. During this five-year period, gold prices have seen significant rises for five times, and major pullbacks for four times.
Gold Bull Trends and the Key Drivers:
• When the COVID pandemic broke out in January 2020, gold prices rose sharply, and the stock market plummeted. This highlights gold's safe-haven investment function.
• In February 2022, gold prices rose in response to the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Geopolitical crisis was the key driver.
• High inflation in the US, peaked at a 9.1% CPI in July 2022, pushed gold prices to record high. Gold is considered a good hedge for inflation.
• In October 2023, the Hamas-Israeli conflict broke out. Gold rallied again as a safe-haven investment.
• The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a massive 50 basis points at its September 2024 policy meeting, followed by another 25-bp cut in November. With the expectation of more Fed cuts, gold started a new rally in July 2024. The trade logic: Fed cuts reduce the rate of return on interest-bearing assets such as Treasury bonds and bank deposits, which on turn makes gold investment more appealing.
Gold Bear Trends and the Key Drivers:
• China resumed manufacturing activities relatively soon after the pandemic. While the U.S. and Europe were still on lockdown and standstill, Chinese goods were exported to fill the gap. This helped lower the perceived risk of an once-a-century health crisis. Gold prices pulled back as a result.
• The Russia-Ukraine conflict entered a stalemate. It did not spread to other European countries and escalated into World War 3. The geopolitical crisis has subsided, and as a result, gold prices withdrew from advancing.
• After the Fed hiked rates 11 times in a row, US inflation has finally cooled down. Gold completed its mission as inflation hedge. Consequently, investors pulled money out of gold and into stocks, causing gold prices to fall.
Trade Setup with Micro Gold Futures
On November 5th, Mr. Trump won by a landslide and was re-elected as the 47th U.S President. In the following three weeks, he quickly completed the nomination of 15-member Cabinet in his new administration.
Based on campaign promises and new Cabinet picks, investors interpret the new Trump policy in a series of the so-called "Trump trades". In my own opinion, these include strong US dollar, weak gold prices and a secular bull market for cryptocurrencies.
• The ascension of a political strongman could bring about ceasefires in both the Russia-Ukraine front and the Middle East. As we recall the relatively peace time during the first Trump term, the expected de-escalation of geopolitical crises in his second term could drive gold prices down in the next four years.
• The "America First" policy is bullish for US dollar. 1) Bringing manufacturing back onshore would strengthen U.S. economy. 2) High tariffs would reduce trade deficits overtime, although inflation may go up in the short term. 3) Slashing fiscal spending by $2 trillion a year would shore up the government coffer. Combined, these policies would defend the dollar's status as an international reserve currency. The dollar index has risen from 103 to 107 in the past month. A strong dollar is bearish for the dollar-denominated gold, as foreign investors would pay more with foreign currencies.
• Mr. Trump is a strong supporter of cryptocurrencies. In the past three months, bitcoin has doubled in prices from $50,000 to nearly $100,000. The campaign promise to establishment of a central bank reserve for bitcoin, if materialized, would push crypto prices significantly higher in the next four years.
The CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that on November 19th, total Open Interest (OI) for Gold Futures is 502,952 contracts, down 33,029 or -6.2% from prior week. Leading the position cutback is Managed Money, which reduces 10,306 (-5.1%) in long positions and 15,911 (-25.6%) in spreading positions. Movement of the “Small Money” is a good indicator of future price trend.
Based on the above analysis, if a trader is bearish on gold prices, he could express his opinions by shorting the COMEX Micro Gold Futures ( AMEX:MGC ).
MGC contracts have a notional value of 10 troy ounces. With Monday settlement price of 2,712.2, each December contract (MGCZ4) has a notional value of $27,122. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $1,150.
The MGC contracts are very liquid. On Monday, MGC has a daily trade volume of 178,663 contracts and an Open Interest of 51,364.
Hypothetically, if gold prices pull back 5% further to 2,576.6, a short position would gain $1,356 (=135.6 x $10). Using initial margin as cost base, a theoretical return would be +118% (= 1356 / 1150). The risk of shorting futures is a rise on gold prices. Investors could lose part or all of their initial margin.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
GOLD Resistance Ahead!CAPITALCOM:GOLD is going up now
But will soon retest
A horizontal resistance level
Of 2714.79 from where a
Local bearish reaction
Is to be expected !
XAUUSD catch the next impulse!Hi fellow traders, XAUUSD will be ready to make a move higher from the blue box after completing the ZIGZAG correction. Let it slide deeper into the blue box and look for an entry. Target the 2771.20 level. Good luck and trade safe!
~ OGwavetrader
XAUUSD Downtrend Based on SMC (Smart Money Concepts) analysis, it appears that gold on the 4-hour timeframe is likely to continue its downward movement after liquidity was swept from the previous high. Now, we are faced with two potential scenarios:
Scenario 1: A direct drop from the green box.
Scenario 2: A slight upward move into the FVG (Fair Value Gap), followed by a strong decline.
Let’s see which scenario gold decides to follow!
XAUUSD short for near future game planGold Trading Strategy Update: November 25, 2024
Several factors are currently putting selling pressure on gold:
Geopolitical Developments: The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon has eased market uncertainty, reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
New Gold Reserves in China: Recently discovered reserves in China, valued at approximately USD 83 billion, are expected to lead to an oversupply in the market. This oversupply could stabilize gold prices in China's domestic market, potentially reducing its demand from the global market.
Technical Outlook:
After the U.S. elections on November 5, gold prices began a corrective phase, with spot gold dropping to the 2538 level. However, given that gold prices have risen by more than USD 1000 over the past two years, the initial correction has been relatively mild. A deeper correction, possibly retracing 50% of the recent impulse leg, could occur over the medium term.
Short-Term Analysis:
Following the recent drop to the optimal trade entry (OTE) level and a liquidity sweep, today's trading session (Monday, November 25) has already witnessed a significant 3% decline in spot gold prices. With technical indicators pointing towards further downside, we project a near-term target for spot gold at 2430, based on Fibonacci levels and the monthly fair value gap (FVG).
The summary:
The combination of geopolitical developments, increased supply expectations, and technical corrections suggests further downside potential for gold in the near term. Traders should monitor key support levels and market sentiment to refine entry and exit strategies.
What are your thoughts on Gold? Possible Rally??Could we see a rally back to Structure break or Area of Interest???
-Price has broken through and retested Bullish Trend line
-Price has broken through Structure Swing Low
- LH Created
Thesis: Wait for price to pull back to 1)Structure break or 2) Area of interest
Notes:
bearish run is rejecting Daily lvl 2558 W/ Massive rejection wick.
1) Rally to Area of Interest would be around 50% prz. (Head & Shoulders R Pattern)
2) Rally to Structure low (MSS) would be a 23.6prz.
GOLD:Continue to go long
Last week rose too much, there will be a large repair and shock at the beginning of this week, the general trend of the weekly line has been affirmed, yesterday's article I also mentioned, in the repair of the back step is we once again layout more single opportunities, weekly positive bag negative, this week will be the inertia of the long rise, the possibility of turning down again is small, the market is always right, we are just a follow, I still adhere to the trend operation. Also note that the market will be closed this week for Thanksgiving.
V shape is very clear, this week to see a big repair 4 hours has closed the big Yin plunge, and to the market to a surprise, we estimate the repair range is 2660-2710, more single opportunity close to 2660 to continue to do long, the current trend here after the retreat began to pull up, 2665 can also go long, the upper space is large, Continue to retracement 2660 and add long position, target 2700-2710. Short chance estimate is the time before the pressure rebound, the magnitude of this big wave is very large we can both long and short.
Support 2660, strong support 2642, pressure 2700-2710, disc strong and weak water line 2690
Gold Long Term Analysis Nov 25The gold price saw a strong rebound last week with the price rising nearly 6%. This saw the gold price respect the upwards trend that has been established over the last year. Uncertainty in the Russia Ukraine conflict provided the main demand for gold last week in the absence of any major economic news as investors looked for a risk hedge.
This movement in gold prices ran counter to increases in the USDX and US treasury yields. The higher yields reflect expectations of better economic conditions leading to a pause (or slowdown) in the pace of monetary policy easing by the Fed and the expected impact of Trump trade policy. With the FOMC minutes, personal consumption and GDP figures coming out later this week we may see some subdued price movement prior to the release of these numbers.
Gold closed last week around a key resistance level that lines up with the 23% fib retracement. We may see gold linger around these levels given recent comments from the Fed reserve over the last week. However a pull back may occur as profits are taken off last week's stellar rise. Hey levels of support are seen around 2693 and 2670.
XAU / USD ! 25 Nov ! Gold price adjusted downXAU / USD trend forecast November 25, 2024
Gold prices (XAU/USD) surge to approximately $2,720 during the early Asian session on Monday, supported by a weakening US Dollar (USD). The USD's sell-off lends support to the USD-denominated Gold price, while escalating geopolitical tensions further bolster demand for safe-haven assets like the yellow metal.
Investors remain focused on developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for a nuclear strike in response to an expanded range of conventional attacks, following reports that the US had permitted Ukraine to use American-made weapons for deeper strikes into Russian territory. This situation is likely to sustain safe-haven flows, benefiting Gold prices.
Gold adjusts H2 fibo, downtrend creates more liquidity for the market
/// BUY XAU : zone 2651-2648
SL: 2643
TP: 50 - 150 - 300pips (2678)
Safe and profitable trading
Gold Pattern FormationThis commodity is on a BULL run ever since it formed its LL at 2538. I do anticipate that the run will continue, testing all its market zones at 2740 and 2780.
We will wait for the market to open so that we can have our entry point.
GOLD📝 Important ranges for this week have been drawn, you can trade them according to your personal strategy.
⏱ TIME:15M
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GoldXau usd daily analysis
Time frame daily
Risk rewards ratio >1.5 for short time
But if we hear good news on Ukraine war , the price will break and come down like orange shape on chart
Gold continues to rise - waiting for a correction⭐️Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold prices continued to rise for the fourth consecutive day, approaching the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) as heightened tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict increased demand for the safe-haven metal. XAU/USD is trading at $2,672, near weekly highs, with a gain of over 0.80%.
Concerns escalated after reports suggested Russia had launched an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) on Ukraine. However, a Western official cited by Reuters clarified that no ICBM was used on Thursday.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
H1 frame is still a very stable price increase - aiming for above 2700 area, waiting for corrective reaction
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2706 - $2708 SL $2713
TP1: $2695
TP2: $2680
TP3: $2660
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2640 - $2642 SL $2635
TP1: $2650
TP2: $2660
TP3: $2670
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
Gold Against the Fundamentals - Short Potentially retreatment to 2677 .Please look at this Beautiful short set full.
XAU ! Nov 21 ! waiting for resistance 2674XAU / USD trend forecast November 21, 2024
Gold prices (XAU/USD) hold onto their upward momentum as the European session approaches, currently hovering near the $2,660 mark, a one-and-a-half-week high reached earlier this Thursday. This marks the fourth consecutive day of gains, driven by heightened geopolitical risks arising from the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict, which supports demand for the safe-haven metal. Additionally, a slight weakening of the US Dollar (USD) provides further support for the commodity.
The price increase continues - gold price recovers strongly. Waiting for reaction at resistance levels: 2674 - 2682 - 2710. The price increase continues - gold price recovers strongly. Waiting for reaction at resistance levels: 2674 - 2682 - 2710. World military tension will ease from next year with more peaceful policies of President Trump.
/// SELL XAU : zone 2672-2675
SL: 2680
TP: 50 - 150 - 300pips (2645)
Safe and profitable trading
XAUUSD Pattern FormationDuring the last bearish momentum which happened between 2790 - 2536, there were imbalances created in between (2 FVGS covered in the chart) and one has already been covered.
I do anticipate that the price might complete this imbalance and continue with the bearish movement! An analysis will follow up using a shorter time frame.
