Gold: Entering a long position on gold (long-term ). R/R: 1:5
Hello everyone,
This is not a scalp position — you’ll need to hold it for a few days, possibly longer. However, the risk-to-reward ratio is reasonable.
Please note: maximum risk is 1%.
Goldprice
Gold Free fall to 3080/3050 ?Gold just broke the channel.
I expect a rapid decline the following hours to 3080 and if that breaks, 3050
Gold Price Analysis May 16Yesterday's D1 candle pulled back within the uptrend with a liquidity sweep to 3121. Today there is unlikely to be a sell-off and the price will continue to return in the uptrend.
Today, it is better to mainly look for retest points for BUY signals.
In the immediate future, 3198 is the first BUY zone that the Asia-Europe session can consider. When breaking this zone, buy entries may not carry long TP expectations. The Breakout zone of 3153 and the bottom zone of 3125 are two important supports to prevent the gold price from a downward slide.
In the opposite direction, the Asian session resistance zone around 3254 also acts as an immediate barrier for the gold price increase. Break 3254 should not BUY until the 3288 zone before SELL Scalping can be done. The upper barrier of the Daily Frame is at 3320.
Perfectly hold the pullback and continue to buy.Gold opened at around 3240 and then rushed to 3252 and then retreated. In the evening, we also gave a short position near the rebound to 3240. After all, there is a lot of pressure from above, and the technical side also needs to repair the strategy, so we gave a short position entry near 3237-38, and the target is 3215. As of the retracement, it reached the lowest point near 3206, which also successfully reached our target position. Today's Asian session high and retreat is completely a technical adjustment. It bottomed out and rebounded yesterday, with an increase of more than one hundred US dollars. The technical bulls are weak and need to pull back. This is why I gave the short position. Be a steady trader.
The gold market showed a V-shaped reversal pattern of bottoming out and rebounding yesterday. The daily line closed with a hammer-shaped positive line with an extremely long lower shadow, indicating that the support below is strong, but the overall high-level oscillation pattern is still maintained. Technical indicators show that short-term correction pressure still exists: the stochastic indicator is blunted at a high level, the MACD double-line dead cross is downward, and the Bollinger band opens downward. The gold price is likely to fluctuate around the middle and lower tracks.
The 4-hour level oscillates to the short side, and the 3200 line becomes the watershed between long and short. If it effectively falls below this level, the shorts will regain the initiative; on the contrary, the longs need to break through the strong resistance area of 3265-3270 to reverse the decline. At the close of the weekly line, the market has a demand for a restorative decline. If it falls below the 3200 integer mark, the target below will look at the 3180-3170 area. Focus on the effectiveness of the 3265-3270 resistance and the strength of the 3200 support, and be alert to the violent fluctuations in the closing market on Friday.
Gold recommendation: Go long when it falls back to around 3215-3205. Target 3230-40-50 first line
Gold-----Buy near 3170-3180, target 3200-3230Gold market analysis:
Recently, gold trading has been very fierce. Yesterday, there was a sharp drop and then a sharp rise, with a range of 200 points. This range is rare in history. We have said many times before that the fluctuation rhythm of gold this year is the largest in history. Before, it fluctuated by 200 points in a month, and now it can fluctuate by 200 points in a day. The market is ever-changing. In such a market, ordinary investors need to take losses. Only if you take losses, it means you have made a mistake. At most, you can get out. Don't increase the bet repeatedly, which will make you die very quickly. Don't fight against the market. It is always right and you are always wrong. Today's idea is that we estimate that gold will be repaired. The possibility of continuing to rise in the Asian session is gone. It rose too much yesterday. Today, it needs a repair and daily adjustment. The estimated adjustment range of the Asian session is 3192-3252, and the central axis position is around 3227. Note that the market has been sold yesterday.
In the European and American markets, we focus on the two long opportunities at 3155 and 3175. If the middle axis does not go back, you can short short. Now the rhythm is the most important. The above analysis chart shows that it is already in a V-shaped pattern. Short-term conversion to buy. If it breaks 3155, be careful that it will be washed again. The repair market can be bought and sold today. The important rhythm issue is.
Fundamental analysis:
Recently, there are a lot of fundamentals, but there are relatively few data. The impact on the market is also very large. The Sino-US trade negotiations, the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, and the India-Pakistan ceasefire have all affected the market.
Operational suggestions
Gold-----Buy near 3170-3180, target 3200-3230
XAU/USD(20250516) Today's AnalysisMarket news:
Fed Chairman Powell: The Fed is adjusting its overall policy-making framework. Zero interest rate is no longer a basic situation. The wording of underemployment and average inflation rate needs to be reconsidered. PCE is expected to drop to 2.2% in April.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
3200
Support and resistance levels:
3318
3274
3245
3154
3125
3081
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 3245, consider buying, the first target price is 3274
If the price breaks through 3200, consider selling, the first target price is 3154
GOLD Update – Short Opportunity After Pullback! Gold traders! 💛 Our key support zone (3,212 - 3,196) has just been broken, and price is now consolidating below! 🎯
We previously took big profits from this level (our followers know!), and now we’re waiting for a pullback to enter a high-probability short trade!
⚡️ Golden Rule:
✅ If price retests the level as new resistance, go SHORT!
✅ If it reverses and breaks back above, consider a LONG!
📌 Always trade with a strategy—be ready for any scenario!
💸 The Secret to Trading Success:
🔹 Keep losses small & controlled.
🔹 Let profits run & grow!
🔹 We can’t control the market, but we CAN control our risk!
🚀 Gold is always hot—what’s your take?
👇 What’s your analysis on this move?
For detailed entry points, trade management, and high-probability setups, follow the channel:
ForexCSP
XAU/USD 16 May 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 15 May 2025.
In my analysis from 12 May 2025, I noted that price had yet to target the weak internal high, including on the H4 timeframe. This aligns with the ongoing corrective bearish pullback across higher timeframes, so a bearish internal Break of Structure (iBOS) was a likely outcome.
As anticipated, price targeted strong internal low, confirming a bearish iBOS.
While a bullish Change of Character (CHoCH) has printed, I am exercising discretion and not marking it as such, given the shallow nature of the pullback.
Additionally, another bullish CHoCH has printed, with price now trading within a defined internal range. I will continue monitoring this closely, particularly in relation to the depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bullish, react at either premium of internal 50% EQ or M15 demand level before targeting weak internal low priced at 3,120.765
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance and persistent geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Comprehensive BITCOIN Analysis for the next 7 days - DAILY chart
First Off - Sorry for all the lines on the chart but EVERY one is very relevant to what is happening right now.
The Dashed Blue Horizontal line is the current ATH line. possible Resistance.
The 2.618 Fib extension has not yet been tested as support. This could happen still, at any point till end of month and is around the 98K usd zone.
PA has Ranged through the Local rising line of support, as if it no longer existed, which was a little surprising given the strength that PA has still. There maybe some uncertainty in the air.
PA is above the neckline of the Cup pattern it printed and, again, it would not be unusual to see PA come back down to test this Neckline as support, which is on that 2.618 Fib extension.
The Bold Yellow line is Long Term Support line since 2015, showing that Bitcoin PA is in the Lower side of a Long Term ascending channel, with plenty of room to rise,
PA has a lot of inert strength right now, so, we may not see this retest happen.
We just have to wait.
BUT you can see that Rising dashed line, the extension of the Cup pattern.
PA may range across into this and bump into it next week. If it acts as support again, PA will then be pushed into a tight Squeeze against the other rising line of support, with an Apex on the current ATH line.
PA ALWAYS REACTS BEFORE THE APEX
All that points towards some Volatile times next week if PA remains in this area.
The other descending line there is a 618 Fib Circle. You can see that 98% of the Time, PA is effected by these.
All this shows us 4 points of resistance, in the same Zone, All Next week and PA will Either Shoot through it with a Big push, Or we may see PA Drop back down. The Big question being, how Far ?
We do not want to loose the 2.618 Fib ext at 98K
But what else can we look at. ?
The RSI DAILY
This is still up high in the near Over Bought zone. It can range up here for extended periods but this is something we should be aware of as the possibility of a drop does exist.
On the weekly, RSI has room to move higher & the 4 hour is in neutral zone, again with ability to push higher.
The MACD DAILY
This is once again curling over and about to test the red signal line as support.
On a 4 hour chart, the MACD is down on Neutral line, giving it strength to push higher and if that continues, we will see the yellow MACD line bounce off the Red signal line on the Daily chart.
Once again, Look at the Histogram and the similarity to the area that the Arrow is pointing at.
We could repeat this but on a larger scale. We have to wait and see if this happens.
But also note how there was a Visit into a red Histogram ( for 4 days ) before the bigger push and I remind you about what has been said above.
So, what else can we look at that may offer some ideas ?
The Chart below is the 4 main Crypto Dominance charts by market Cap - 4 hour
BTC.D - ETH.D
OTHERS.D - USDT.D
( OTHERS = Top 125 Coins MINUS Top 10 by Market Cap) Mid to Low cap
We have recently seen a Drop in Bitcoin dominance, giving the ALTS some time to push higher. This is seen with the BTC.D dropping and the ETH.D and OTHERS.D rising
Also note how USDT.D Dropped, showing that stable coins were being exchanged for Crypto,
And as we see now, we have the possibility of BTC.D being rejected by its 50 SMA ( Red)
ETH.D is above its 50 SMA, showing it had a good push and may get support if PA drops
OTHERS.D has already fallen below its 50 SMA, showing a brutal sell off, rapid profit taking.
That is the world of ALTS.
In the last 48 hours, we saw a return for Bitcoin as it rose from a shallow Low in its Range. This was enough to cause a sell off of the ALT coins as we see in the Drop in Others.D
ETH however, remains in a range with obvious intention to continue higher if the market allows.
Lastly, we can compare Bitcoin to the other Markets
Bitcoin - CFD GOLD
DXY - S&P500
Bitcoin has performed well. It has reclaimed some position on Gold recently while it climbed alongside the S&P
We can also see how BTC climbed while DXY dropped.
This highlights some Flaws in using the BTC USD pair to judge the success of BTC but this is explaned better in another post. But in short, If the $ looses Value and your BTC USD pair appears to climb, theg ain is lost as the $ is worth less.
Use BTC XAUT pairs. Bitcoin Gold Pair - Historically, GOLD looses little Value by comparison. So when Bitcoin gains against Gold..It is WIN WIN
So, in conclusion, we see Bitcoin under some pressure to avoid Lower or sharper Drop in the short tern.
The Lower Timeframes show us that BTC has the ability for a Continued Range but with caution.
We see ETH ( and larger Alts ) intent on remain in the game now they have had a small glimpse of Gains
And we see that Mid and Lower Cap Alts are mostly just money makers providing you play the game right. And that game may have some more time if Bitcoin Stumbles in the next 7 days.
And that possibility does exist.
Today is crucial in many ways and will set the tone for the following week.
There is Financial Data being released by the USA today and if unfavourable, we may see some sharp moves.
And ,Longer Term VERY BULLISH - I HOLD AND CONTINUE TO BUY WHEN I CAN ON SPOT ORDERS
I hope this helps and I am grateful for comments
Gold has a strong deep V, 3200 support is good for longThe 1-hour moving average of gold begins to turn and continue, so the momentum of gold bears begins to weaken, and gold bulls may begin to exert their strength. However, gold started to rise all the way from 3120 to 3252 yesterday. Gold rose by about 130 points, so the volatility began to increase. Therefore, we must wait patiently for gold to adjust. Because of such a large fluctuation, an adjustment will also be tens of dollars. We must wait patiently for the adjustment and stabilize before going long. After gold breaks through 3192, it is considered a strong deep V breakthrough of important resistance. Then 3192 of gold has now become an important support level. If it falls back to 3192 in the Asian session, go long on dips. If gold falls back to near the 3200 mark, you can try to go long.
Since gold has started to reverse strongly, gold bulls have begun to show their muscles. In the short term, we should not be stubbornly bearish anymore. We should be flexible and adapt to the market. The market is like this, changing rapidly. We should adapt to the market and not be too obsessed with bears or bulls. Obsession is a trap. Gold bulls are strong now, so gold is now the home of bulls. Go long when the Asian session falls back.
Bullish Momentum Builds as Gold Trades Within 3200–3250 RangeSHORT-TERM GOLD ANALYSIS – XAUUSD
🟢 GOLD SURGES TO $3250 FOLLOWING FED CHAIR'S SPEECH
Gold prices spiked to the $3250 region after a reassuring speech by the new Fed Chair, which helped calm market sentiment. The move reflects renewed demand for safe-haven assets.
📉 Currently, XAUUSD is trading around the 3220 area, testing short-term resistance levels and potentially building momentum for another upward push.
🔎 Key short-term price zone:
In the short term, gold is likely to range between $3200 and $3250, forming a short-term trading zone where accumulation and directional moves may develop.
✅ Short-Term Trade Setup
🔹BUY:
Entry: 3205
Take Profit (TP): 3210
Stop Loss (SL): 3200
🔹SELL :
Entry: 3241
Take Profit (TP): 3236
Stop Loss (SL): 3246
⚠️ Notes:
These setups are best suited for short-term traders using lower timeframes (M15–H1).
Monitor price action closely around 3200 and 3250 for confirmation before entering trades.
Always apply proper risk management to avoid overexposure, especially with ongoing market reactions to Fed news.
Gold rebounds above 3190, maintains
🔔 Driving Events
Gold prices (XAU/USD) failed to extend Thursday's sharp rebound from the $3,120 area (the lowest level since April 10) and faced selling pressure again during Friday's Asian session. The 90-day trade truce between China and the United States has relieved some of the pressure on global financial markets, suppressing demand for safe-haven metals.
Nevertheless, lingering geopolitical tensions and a weaker US dollar continue to provide potential support, limiting the downside for gold prices. In addition, the market's growing expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may prevent traders from taking a strong bearish stance on gold in the short term.
📊Comment Analysis
Gold prices have recovered, and buyers are determined to keep gold prices stable around 3200 points in May. Waiting for new bullish momentum after the end of tariff negotiations
💰Strategy Package
🔥Sell Gold Zone: 3287-3290 SL 3294
TP1: $3270
TP2: $3260
TP3: $3250
🔥Buy Gold Zone: $3173 - $3175 SL $3168
TP1: $3188
TP2: $3200
TP3: $3218
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the lot size that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the capital account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the capital account
GOLD next targetWaiting for the retest at lower levels to buy.
As I said there is more scenarios for gold at this point, any change of direction I'll update you guys.
Gold price rises and then sells off?Information summary:
Yesterday morning, gold prices soared due to the impact of international news, hitting an intraday high of $3,253.
On Friday, Asian time, gold suddenly fell rapidly in the short term, and the price of gold currently fell to around $3,215/ounce, a sharp drop of nearly $28 in the day.
Gold price targets higher, but the bullish potential is limited in the short term. The focus will be on the preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in May.
Technical analysis:
Looking at the daily chart, gold prices rose on Thursday, but both the high and low points of the day moved down from the previous trading day. On the other hand, the 20-day moving average eased down to around $3,305/ounce, while the 100-day and 200-day moving averages maintained an upward tilt at a level far below the current gold price. Finally, the trend of technical indicators is upward, but it is still below the previous intraday high and in the negative range, which shows that buyer sentiment is not very high.
The short-term trend shows that gold buyers still lack full confidence.
You need to pay attention to the important support and resistance levels:
Support level: $3,200; $3,175; $3,160.
Resistance level: $3,230; $3,245.
Operation strategy:
Buy around $3,200, stop loss at $3,190, and profit range at $3,250-3,280.
Gold, false decline, real wash
📊Comment analysis
The recent surge and plunge of gold has also led to many different opinions on the market trend. If it rises, look at the ceiling, and if it falls, look at the floor. Most of them are such remarks, and the misleading nature of such remarks can be imagined. The first time I chased more at 3500, it was okay. After the beginning of the month, I soon got the opportunity to get out of the trap. But those who chased higher at 3400 twice last week were not so lucky. Opportunities cannot always be there, and not every time you can survive.
Once you have the idea of standing guard or holding on, it means you will lose. In the face of huge fluctuations in prices, short-term card points, and few positions can be grasped. You can't just rely on a rumor on the Internet to chase shorts and look at bear markets when prices fall, and chase longs and look at bull markets when prices rise. Investing and trading are two different things. Investment is a direction, focusing on large cycles, large directions, long-term, and profiting by time. Trading, on the other hand, makes money by rhythm and fluctuations, which are completely two concepts.
I have always said that the general direction is bullish and the rhythm is to get on board after every retracement. The transaction is divided into short, medium and long. The short-term is limited to intraday. Whether it is right or wrong, it is settled on the same day. The medium-term wave band, after each large retracement, insist on getting on board in batches, and leave after a phased rise. For the long-term, after each large retracement, build positions in batches and hold for a long time. First, make the logic clear, and then talk about the operation. We can't achieve the lowest or highest, but as long as we achieve a relatively low or high position, it will be fine.
The core of investment is the cycle, and the core of trading is the rhythm. If the rhythm is right, everything is right.
In the face of the sharp rise and fall of gold, first, don't hold a heavy position, and second, as long as it is not a relatively high or relatively low chasing order, there is no need to panic. First, if you hold a heavy position, first of all, you can't withstand the fluctuations, you can only bet on the win or loss of one order, and there will be no next chance. Secondly, as long as you chase long at high positions and short at low positions, even if you have a light position, you will not have a chance to get out of the trap, and you can only make up for the loss through new transactions. There is no other way, but to achieve unity of knowledge and action, and don't think about it. Heavy positions, plus chasing back and forth, plus the world lock, will only die faster and will not get out of the trap. Take care of yourself.
Let's talk about the market. First of all, the bull is still there. Secondly, the sharp drop and surge are wash-outs and adjustments, not the peak, but the base is large and the amplitude is large, so you have to reduce your position. At present, it is a large-scale range shock wash-out adjustment at the daily level, and a weekly level retracement, not the peak. It will be very clear if you look at the big cycle, and you must not listen to the rumors flying all over the sky. If it rises, chase high to see new highs, and if it falls, chase short to see new lows. It is not advisable. Again, remember one thing, grasp the relative highs and lows, let the wind and waves rise, and sit on the fishing boat steadily.
After the U.S. market plummeted, it directly reversed and surged. This kind of market will not continue. Don't chase it. Don't see the plummet and then the surge, and then shout that the bottom has been reached. The plummet means the peak, and the surge means the bottom has been reached. Isn't it a life-and-death situation every day?
The U.S. market directly talked about the next area. After the sell-off, gold rebounded sharply yesterday, which gave the trapped orders an opportunity to escape, not a direct reversal. Next, gold will enter a large range of shocks and washes with 3260 as resistance and 3150-3120 as support. After the shock, it will finally experience a wave of sell-offs and break the new low, and then it will bottom out. The bottoming logic is the same as the May Day period. Before May Day, gold continued to maintain above 3260 for washing. After May Day, it directly broke below 3260 and touched 3200 and then rose. Next, it will be the same. After a period of washing and shock, it will fall below the low of 3120 again, hit a new low and bottom out, and start to rise. The rhythm is like this, it depends entirely on courage, patience and technology, chasing ups and downs is not advisable. The rhythm is like this, watch more and do less, hold tight, and fasten your seat belts.
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the capital account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the capital account
XAUUSD STRUCTURAL ZONE PLAN – MAY 16, 2025🔍 XAUUSD STRUCTURAL ZONE PLAN – MAY 16, 2025
No SL/TP – Only Clean POIs to Watch Like a Sniper.
🟥 PREMIUM ZONES – SELL INTEREST
🔻 ZONA 1: 3285–3295
→ Daily OB + extreme liquidity pocket
Clean unmitigated OB on Daily
Sweep risk above prior LH + inducement layer
If price gets here, we watch for top-out or violent rejection
🧠 Ultimate bull trap if news spikes high
🔻 ZONA 2: 3265–3275
→ H4 + H1 OB confluence
Reactive supply zone
FVG left unfilled + imbalance
Strong zone for reversal traps post-news
🧠 Ideal for NY session liquidity grab
🔻 ZONA 3: 3240–3252
→ Active intraday premium FVG
NY high sweep + imbalance fill
Close to 61.8% retrace from swing
Major inducement area
🧠 Watch for rejection behavior after sharp move up
🔻 ZONA 4: 3228–3235
→ M15 OB zone, micro trap
Minor supply zone inside HTF FVG
If rejected early in London, it can lead to NY sweep reentry
🧠 Less reliable alone – use with structure break
🟩 DISCOUNT ZONES – BUY INTEREST
🟢 ZONA 1: 3165–3172
→ H4 demand zone retest
Key CHoCH area on H4
Previously unmitigated base
Inside 50–61.8% Fibo range
🧠 Best zone for continuation if structure remains bullish
🟢 ZONA 2: 3140–3150
→ M30 OB + breaker zone
Below liquidity shelf
If we see a sharp drop, this becomes a must-watch bounce zone
🧠 Entry only if confirmed M5 BOS/CHoCH post-sweep
🟢 ZONA 3: 3110–3125
→ Extreme demand zone
Daily structure sweep zone
Oversold + full mitigation level
Last line of defense before HTF shift
🧠 Deep discount – don’t enter without confirmation
🔐 STRUCTURE TRACKER – MAY 16
Level Type Price Range Description
🔼 Premium Roof 3285–3295 Daily OB cap, max squeeze trap
🔼 Supply Layer 3265–3275 Rejection zone – spike entry risk
🔼 Trap Area 3240–3252 NY fakeout risk zone
🔼 Micro OB 3228–3235 Intraday trap area
🔽 Reclaim Demand 3165–3172 Strong CHoCH demand zone
🔽 Break & Retest 3140–3150 OB + breaker base
🔽 Liquidity Sweep 3110–3125 Deep discount reaction zone
🎯 Final Note:
Don’t force setups. These are sniper POIs — if no structure break or CHoCH → no trade.
We don’t chase candles. We trap impulsive traders and ride the reaction.
News will hit. Flow will spike. Stay reactive.
Gold Potential Bullish Continuation (Potential HH formation)With with continued global tariff war between USA and China, Gold price still seems to exhibit signs of overall Bullish momentum as the price action may form a prominent Higher High with multiple confluences through key Fibonacci and Support levels which presents us with a potential long opportunity.
Trade Plan:
Entry : 3178
Stop Loss : 2946
TP 0.9 - 1 : 3399 - 3408
The rebound in gold prices is for better short selling
After gold fell below 3200 this week, the current trend is as shown in the figure. The end of this wave is tentatively set at around 2900. There may be a rebound during the period, but it is only a rebound. After the news faded, I emphasized that the gold price of 3500 was a top to look at the retracement in my analysis after the 9th of this month. I also gave a short-selling strategy and the staged support position below. Now the support level has been broken one after another, so we can continue to look at the target according to the trend.
The last wave of decline at the short-term level has gone through several shock adjustments along the way. Now the gold price has rebounded again near 3120, and the highest rebound reached 3153. I also gave some people a reminder to continue shorting along the way. Now I will mainly make a brief analysis of the hourly line. After the sharp drop, the gold price must be repaired. One is shock adjustment repair, and the other is rebound repair. Under this extreme decline trend, gold does not have the conditions for a rebound, so I think the rebound here at 3120 is just caused by some short orders choosing to sell for profit, so the market will continue to fall in the future.
Now there are two main positions to focus on above. The first is the previous low point near 3168 during the decline, and the other is the starting point of the last wave near 3156. If the rebound does not cross these two positions, we can continue to see gold testing or even breaking through the recent low of 3120. Pay attention to the step support below near 3088.
Gold Breaks $3170 on Dovish Fed – Targeting $3220Gold (XAU/USD) has successfully broken above the short-term resistance at $3,170, surging toward the $3,200 level after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s latest remarks. The market reacted positively as Powell avoided any hawkish signals, lifting investor sentiment and pushing safe-haven demand higher.
🧠 Market Sentiment & Fundamental Support
- Powell maintained a neutral tone, offering no hints of further rate hikes. This calmed investor nerves and weakened the U.S. dollar slightly.
- The latest PPI data came in lower than expected, signaling cooling inflation pressure and reducing expectations for tighter Fed policy.
- Traders are shifting away from the fear of additional rate hikes, with some even anticipating policy easing later this year.
🔮 Short-Term Outlook
Given current sentiment and the momentum from Powell’s comments, gold is likely to retest the $3,200 – $3,205 zone in the short term. If bullish pressure continues and no major surprises come from incoming economic data, the $3,220 level could be reached before we see a potential pullback.
📌 Important Note:
- Keep an eye on upcoming U.S. economic releases like unemployment claims and regional manufacturing data to gauge dollar strength.
- If gold fails to break above $3,220 and shows signs of bearish divergence, it may present a short-term profit-taking opportunity or a correction setup.
📌 Like & follow for more real-time XAU/USD ideas and updates!
📌Drop your thoughts below – bullish or bearish from here?
Gold rebounded to the expected position, 3205 short!
📌 Driving Event
The announcement of a 90-day trade truce between the world's two largest economies also helped ease recession concerns in the United States, prompting investors to reduce expectations for aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve (FED). This shift supports the continued rise in U.S. Treasury yields, further suppressing demand for interest-free gold.
📊 Commentary Analysis
Today, the price of gold fell to its lowest point in more than a month. It once hit the lowest level since April 10 at 3120, and then rebounded to the 3200 line, and the volatility increased again!
💰 Strategy Package
Short position:
Actively participate in 3200-3203 points, with a profit target around 3120 points
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose a lot size that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the fund account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
Gold changes trend? Latest analysis.Information summary:
Due to the easing of trade tensions between the world's two largest economies; suppressing safe-haven demand, and investors waiting for US economic data for more clues on future interest rate trends. On Thursday, Asian time, gold prices fell to their lowest point in more than a month. At one point in the session, it hit the lowest level since April 10 at $3,120. The price has now rebounded to around $3,190.
Technical analysis:
Gold once again showed a trend of falling first and then rising, basically swallowing up all the declines in the Asian market. Is gold about to start a new round of rise? I don't think it is possible to judge that the upward trend is established now. Because from the weekly line, the price rushed up and fell back, and the more obvious signal is that it will fall again.
From the daily rhythm, today fell first and then rose, and the short-term rise was strong, swallowing up all the declines in the Asian session and there are signs of continued rise. But in terms of rhythm, the watershed of the Asian session's decline is the integer mark of 3,200. If it continues to be suppressed below the watershed, the market will still fall.
Operation strategy:
Short around $3205, stop loss at $3215, profit range at $3180-3175.
If the gold price breaks through the $3,200 resistance with strength and stays above this level, we need to change our strategy.
XAU/USD) bearish trand analysis Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update
Technical analysis of XAU/USD (Gold vs. USD) on the 4-hour timeframe suggests a bearish outlook. Here's a breakdown of the key elements:
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Key Levels:
1. Resistance Zone (Upper Yellow Block):
Around 3,450–3,500.
Price was previously rejected from this level, forming a double-top like structure.
2. Rejection Point (Mid-Level Zone):
Near 3,300–3,310.
Price repeatedly failed to break and hold above this zone, indicating strong selling pressure.
3. Support Zone / Demand Block (Lower Yellow Block):
Around 3,100–3,125.
This is the target area, labeled clearly as TARGET POINT: 3,116.501.
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Indicators:
200 EMA:
Currently above the price, suggesting downward momentum.
Acting as a dynamic resistance.
RSI (14):
Around 39, slightly above oversold territory (30).
Indicates bearish pressure but not yet oversold — room for further downside.
The chart suggests that if price breaks below the mid-level support, we could expect a move towards the support block around 3,116.
The bearish wave projection drawn in the chart confirms the trader’s expectation of a drop.
The setup appears to be a break-and-retest of the mid-zone, followed by continuation downward.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Trading Idea Summary:
Bias: Bearish
Entry Trigger: Break below ~3,225–3,230 with confirmation
Target: ~3,116
Invalidation/Stop: Close above 3,300–3,310 (rejection zone)
Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
Gold on Edge – Will Powell Trigger the Drop?📈 Short-Term Trend Analysis – XAU/USD
On the H1 timeframe, gold price formed a short-term top at $3,170, then sharply declined to the $3,150 area.
The current price action shows a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, indicating a clear bearish trend.
Price has broken below the EMA20 and is trading below the EMA50 on the H1 chart – signaling a loss of bullish momentum in the short term.
This reflects market hesitation ahead of key U.S. economic data and the upcoming Fed speech.
📊 Short-Term Technical Scenario
Main Scenario: SELL ON BREAK OF SUPPORT AT $3,150
Sell Entry: Below $3,148 (confirmation of support break)
Stop Loss (SL): $3,158 (above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement)
Take Profit (TP):
TP1: $3,139 (Fibonacci 61.8%)
TP2: $3,131 (Fibonacci 78.6%)
TP3: $3,120 (strong support zone, previous swing low)
🔔 Important Notes
Closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later today. If he hints at maintaining higher interest rates, gold may continue its downward momentum.
A break below $3,120 would shift the trend from short-term bearish to medium-term bearish, with extended targets around $3,100 – $3,080.
