GOLD TRADING POINT UPDATE > READ THE CHAPTIAN Buddy'S dear friend 👋
SMC Trading Signals Update 🗾🗺️ Gold traders SMC trading poi nt update you on New technical analysis setup list time post signals 🚀 Hit sucksfully My target 🎯 point 2877 Now ✅ update you on New technical analysis update on gold 🪙 Gold still going to bullish trend 📈 🚀 today us session. More bullish on Gold take a New ATH 2904 I'm long Now 2869 + 2904 Good luck 💯🤞
Key Resistance level 2880 + 2904
Key Support level 2866 - 2854 - 2845
Mr SMC Trading point
Plaes support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
Goldprice
GOLD TRADING UPDATE > READ THE CHTAPIAN Buddy'S dear friend 👋
SMC Trading Signals Update 🗾🗺️ Gold traders SMC trading point update you on New technical analysis setup for Gold 🪙 Gold still holding it up rising Gold 🪙 today take again 💪 new ATH 2845 I will see again for New ATH 2880 ) Gold Traders SMC-Trading Point update technical patterns b. SMC ) Gold recovery samll trade Short 😀 2830 - 2817 that is good support level of buying zone ☺️ 🥂 good luck 🤞
Key Resistance level 2845 + 2880
Key Support level 2830 - 2817 - 2772
Mr SMC Trading point
Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
Signal gold📉 Signal 1: Entering a Short Trade
🔹 Entry Conditions:
If the price fails to break 2,806 - 2,813 and shows bullish weakness, a short trade can be considered.
Entry around 2,789 is suitable.
🔹 Stop Loss:
Above 2,800
🔹 Take Profit:
First target: 2,777
Second target: 2,764
Third target: 2,764 (if the downtrend continues)
🔹 Risk Management:
If the price stabilizes above 2,813, reassess the trade.
If 2,777 support is broken, the downtrend will strengthen.
📈 Signal 2: Entering a Long Trade
🔹 Entry Conditions:
If the price holds the 2,777 - 2,789 support and reversal candles appear, a long trade can be considered.
Entry around 2,818 is suitable.
🔹 Stop Loss:
Below 2,806
🔹 Take Profit:
First target: 2,850
🔹 Risk Management:
If 2,764 is broken, reassess the long trade.
If the 2,813 resistance is broken, the uptrend will strengthen.
✅ Overall Conclusion:
If the price reaches 2,806 - 2,813 and shows weakness, a short (sell) trade is preferable.
If the price reaches 2,777 - 2,789 and shows bullish reversal signs, a long (buy) trade is logical.
Entry confirmation should be based on price action and candlestick patt
GOLD 1H CHART TRADING PLAN FOR THE DAY / READ CAPTIONAnalysis of the 1H Timeframe Chart for Gold (XAU/USD)
Previous Chart Review
The bearish move from the ENTRY LEVEL at 2,796 reached Take Profit 1 (TP1) at 2,778, validating the support at GOLDTURN levels AT 2,778.
GOLDTURN acted as a critical support level, rejecting lower prices and triggering a bullish rebound.
The upward move successfully achieved:
TP1: 2,798 ✅
TP2: 2,807 ✅
TP3: 2,817 ✅
Current Market Structure
Key Resistance Levels:
Supply Zone: 2,830.57 (Highs above TP3)
Bullish targets identified at:
2,837 (TP2)
2,856 (TP3) for extended upward momentum.
Support Levels:
Immediate support: GOLDTURN levels at 2,813
Additional supports:
2,803
2,793
2,783
2,774
Retracement range: 2,732–2,740
EMA Analysis:
The EMA5 (2,815.20) is a key pivot zone, indicating short-term trends:
A break and hold above 2,817 it suggests continuation of bullish momentum.
A break below it signals a possible test of support levels.
Trend Analysis:
Current candles reflect a potential pullback to the 2,813 level.
A bullish continuation above 2,817 could confirm upward momentum toward 2,837 and beyond.
A failure to hold above 2,813 may test lower GOLDTURN levels.
Trading Plan:
Bullish Strategy:
Monitor EMA5 crossing and holding above 2,817 for:
Immediate targets: 2,837, followed by 2,856.
Buy dips at support levels (2,813, 2,803, 2,793) targeting 30–40 pip gains.
Bearish Risks:
Downside triggers include:
EMA5 crossing below 2,817 leading to a test of 2,798.
Sustained moves below 2,798 may target 2,744 and 2,732–2,740.
Range Confirmation:
Await confirmation through a break and lock above/below key levels:
Bullish continuation: Above 2,837.
Bearish momentum: Below 2,813.
Long-Term Outlook
The bullish bias remains intact, with pullbacks offering opportunities to accumulate positions.
Focus remains on risk management by entering at support levels and exiting at predefined targets (20–40 pips per level).
Final Thoughts
Confidence and discipline are essential to navigate market fluctuations effectively.
This structured approach ensures traders are prepared for both bullish and bearish scenarios.
Check out further updates and multi-timeframe for more insights!
Please support us by liking, comments and boosting if you think our analysis is worth it.
The Quantum Trading Mastery
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP AND TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK4H Trading Analysis
Hi Everyone,
Here’s our updated 4H chart analysis and key levels for the upcoming week.
Market Overview
As seen on the chart, after successfully reaching TP2, the candle body failed to close above this level, and the EMA5 also did not cross and lock above it. Currently, Gold is trading within three weighted levels, with a gap above 2,800 and a gap below 2,788.
What’s Next for GOLD?
The 4H candle was unable to close above TP2 (2,815), and EMA5 was rejected at this level. This indicates a potential short-term reversal.
📉 Key Levels
Support Zones: Strong support is expected at the FVG zone and Gold Turn Levels at 2,788, 2,762, 2,745, and 2,705 (Retracement Range).
Downside Risks
If EMA5 crosses and holds below 2,788, the next target is 2,762.
If EMA5 crosses and holds below 2,762, the downside extends to 2,745.
A further break below 2,762 could drive prices down to 2,705.
📈 Bullish Scenario
A bounce from support levels could trigger a retest of TP1 (2,788), with potential upside towards TP2 (2,815) and TP3 (2,841).
Trading Strategy
🔹 Short-Term Trades:
Utilize 1H and 4H timeframes to capitalize on pullbacks at Gold Turn Levels.
Target 30–40 pips per trade while focusing on shorter positions in this range-bound market.
🔹 Long-Term Outlook:
Our bullish bias remains intact, viewing pullbacks as buying opportunities.
Buying dips from key levels offers better risk management rather than chasing tops.
Final Thoughts
Trade with confidence and discipline—our precise analysis keeps you well-prepared to navigate market movements. Stay tuned for daily updates and multi-timeframe insights.
Best regards,
📉💰 The Quantum Trading Mastery
Gold on Its Way to $3,000 Within a Month Will You SeizeDo you remember our previous predictions that hit the target perfectly?
Today, gold continues its strong upward trend, and based on technical, economic, and political analysis, it is on track to reach $3,000 within the next month!
🔥 For those who missed previous opportunities:
Gold keeps breaking records, yet some remain hesitant!
But successful investors act at the right time before it’s too late!
💡 Why will gold continue to rise?
🔸 Technical Analysis: Strong indicators confirm the uptrend.
🔸 Economic Analysis: Inflation and market instability drive investors toward safe-haven assets.
🔸 Political Analysis: Geopolitical tensions and global events increase demand for gold as a safe haven.
📈 The markets wait for no one… The decision is yours!
Will you take action now, or regret it later?
Don’t miss upcoming opportunities— follow us to get the latest analyses and predictions first!
#GoldTrading #BuySignal #GoldTo3000 #TechnicalAnalysis #EconomicAnalysis #PoliticalAnalysis #SmartInvesting #GoldenOpportunity #BigProfits
Gold (XAU/USD) Price Analysis: Bearish TReversal from ResistanceThis is a technical analysis chart of Gold (XAU/USD)
Key Observations:
1. Resistance Zone:
A resistance area is marked in the upper part of the chart, where the price struggles to break through.
The price reached this zone and faced rejection, indicating selling pressure.
2. ABC Correction Pattern:
The chart displays an ABC corrective structure:
(A) represents the initial upward movement.
(B) shows a pullback.
(C) marks a final upward push before reversing.
3. Bearish Reversal Indication:
The price failed to sustain above the resistance zone and started declining.
The red arrow suggests a potential downward move.
A short position (sell trade) is highlighted in the red-shaded area.
4. Key Support Zones:
The price is approaching a highlighted support region where buyers may step in.
A deeper pullback could lead to the lower support box.
5. Volume and Momentum:
If bearish momentum increases, price might break support and continue downward.
If buyers hold support, a bounce back towards resistance is possible.
Conclusion:
The market is currently showing bearish signs after hitting resistance.
A short trade setup appears in play, targeting lower support zones.
Gold Price Analysis: Bullish Breakout Formation on 1H ChartKey Observations:
Price Level: The current price is around $2,805.507, showing a gain of +11.950 (+0.43%).
Pattern Identified:
A bullish flag or wedge pattern seems to be forming, indicated by the blue trend lines.
This suggests a potential breakout to the upside, as illustrated by the blue arrow.
Support & Resistance Levels:
Support: Around $2,800, as price action has tested this level.
Resistance: Around $2,810, where price has struggled to break out.
Trend Direction:
The market appears to be in an uptrend, with a recent retracement that could lead to another push higher.
The blue arrow suggests that a bullish continuation might occur if the price breaks above the resistance.
Trading Outlook:
Bullish Case (Breakout Above $2,810):
If price breaks above $2,810, it could move toward the next resistance level, possibly around $2,820 or higher.
This would confirm the bullish pattern.
Bearish Case (Rejection at Resistance):
If price fails to break above resistance, it may pull back to $2,800 or lower before attempting another breakout.
Conclusion:
Watch for a breakout above $2,810 for confirmation of a bullish move.
If rejection occurs, price may test support at $2,800 before another attempt.
GOLD TRADING POINT UPDATE .READ THE CHAPTIANBuddy'S dear friend 👋
SMC Trading Signals Update 🗾🗺️ Gold traders SMC trading point update you on New technical analysis setup for Gold 🪙 Gold list week take a New All Time high ATH 2817 ) Gold Traders SMC-Trading Point still ses a bullish trend 📈 🚀 this week take a New 🆕 ATH 2837 fisrt take support breakdown moving 😃 up trand that expect it. Next week Two strong 🪨💪 support level 2785 2772 that entry buying said if close below 👇 that level that expect Short Trade. 2724 2703 )
Key Resistance level 2817+ 2837
Key Support level 2785 - 2772 - 2724 - 2703
Mr SMC Trading point
Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
Gold XAUUSD Possible Move 04.02.2025Gold (XAU/USD) Price Action Analysis & Trading Signal – February 4, 2025
Market Structure & Key Zones:
The price is currently ranging between $2,813 - $2,825.
There are two identified buying zones:
First Buy Zone: $2,810 - $2,813
Second Buy Zone: $2,796 - $2,799
Resistance levels:
First Target: $2,825
Second Target: $2,841
Trading Strategy & Signal:
Scenario 1: Buy from First Zone ($2,810 - $2,813)
If price finds support and shows bullish rejection (e.g., pin bars, engulfing candles), enter long.
Entry: $2,810 - $2,813
TP1: $2,825
TP2: $2,841
SL: Below $2,804
Scenario 2: Buy from Second Zone ($2,796 - $2,799) if the first zone fails
If price breaks below $2,810 but respects $2,796, look for reversal signs to buy.
Entry: $2,796 - $2,799
TP1: $2,813
TP2: $2,825
SL: Below $2,790
Conclusion:
Gold is currently in a range-bound structure, and we are looking for bullish confirmation before entering. Patience is key—wait for price action signals at the highlighted demand zones before executing a trade.
Please like follow and show support.
Gold Hits $2,842 as Predicted… Did You Seize the Opportunity?Do you remember our last post where we gave you a gold buy signal?
Today, gold has reached $2,842 —exactly as we predicted!
🔥 Unfortunately, for those who missed our previous post:
That was the golden opportunity to buy and profit...
Now, it's regret and loss for those who ignored the warning!
💡 Gold is on its way to $2,925 … just as we mentioned before!
Don't miss the opportunity again—buy gold now before you lose out on massive gains!
Don't let yourself become a victim of missed opportunities…
Follow the analysis and always be prepared for any scenario!
📈 The market waits for no one…
Are you ready for the next move?
Don't miss upcoming opportunities— follow us now so you never miss an important signal or analysis!
#GoldTrading
#BuyGold
#GoldSignals
#GoldInvesting
#TradingOpportunities
#MarketAnalysis
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Gold Price Analysis: Bearish Breakdown with Potential RecoveryThis chart is a 1-hour time frame of Gold CFDs (US$/OZ)
Key Observations:
1. Current Price: The market is trading at $2,779.935, showing a -0.63% decline.
2. Resistance & Support Levels:
Resistance Zone (Green Box at the top): Around $2,795 - $2,801.
Support Zone (Green Box at the bottom): Around $2,728 - $2,740.
3. Trendlines & Patterns:
ABC Pattern: A corrective wave structure is visible:
(A) - Initial Uptrend
(B) - Continuation Higher
(C) - Market Reversal Downward
Bearish Breakdown: After reaching the peak at (C), the price broke below an upward trendline (blue).
4. Potential Price Movements (Forecasted Scenarios):
Bearish Move (Red Arrow & Box): A downward move is expected, targeting the lower support zone (~$2,740).
Bullish Recovery (Upward Arrow): If support holds, a possible recovery towards $2,795 - $2,801 could occur.
Conclusion & Trading Strategy:
Bearish Bias: If price stays below $2,784, a further decline towards $2,740 is likely.
Bullish Recovery: A strong rejection from $2,740 could push the price back up to $2,795+.
Key Levels to Watch: $2,784 (minor resistance) and $2,740 (major support).
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK1H Trading Analysis - The Quantum Trading Mastery
Hi Traders,
We successfully reached TP1, TP2, and TP3 in our previous 1H chart analysis. Below are the updated levels and targets for the coming week.
Market Overview
Gold reached an all-time high at 2,817, and is currently trading between two key levels, with a gap above 2,817 and a gap below 2,778. As seen on the chart, EMA5 crossed and locked below the KEY LEVEL of 2,796, and TP1 has just been hit. To further validate the price direction and range, we’ll monitor EMA5 at various target levels, along with the GoldTurn support levels.
What’s Next for GOLD in the 1H Timeframe?
A resistance level has formed at 2,817. EMA5 failed to cross and lock above this point, triggering a reversal. The FVG might reinforce another resistance level, pushing prices further down towards TP2 (2,761). Additionally, EMA5 crossing below MA21 and MA50 signals a bearish trend.
Key Levels
* Resistance Zones: The FVG resistance at 2,782–2,888 is expected to push prices down to TP2 (2,761).
* Support Levels: Strong support is anticipated at Gold Turn Levels around 2,778, 2,761, 2,744, and 2,740 (Retracement Range).
⚠️ Downside Risks
* If EMA5 crosses and holds below 2,778, the next target is 2,761.
* If EMA5 crosses and holds below 2,761, the downside extends toward 2,744.
* A break below 2,744 could drive prices down to 2,740 (retracement range).
📈 Bullish Path
A bounce from support levels could trigger a retest with potential upside.
* If EMA5 crosses and holds above 2,778, the next bullish target is 2,796.
* If EMA5 holds above 2,796, the upward extends to 2,807.
* A further break above 2,807 could push prices upward to 2,819.
🔹 Long-Term Outlook
Our bullish bias remains, viewing pullbacks as opportunities to buy.
Buying dips from key levels offers better risk management rather than chasing tops.
Final Thoughts
Trade with confidence and discipline—our detailed analysis ensures you're equipped to navigate market fluctuations. Stay tuned for daily updates and multi-timeframe insights.
Best regards,
📉💰 The Quantum Trading Mastery
Gold ShortThis commodity has formed the bearish market structure (according to the 4H timeframe) considering that it ran through the Order Block at 2791, then it has retraced back towards that block (forming a breaker block) and I do anticipate that we might go bearish if the price will not break above the 2804 zone.
Also, as for now, it us at the 1H iFVG which is a good place for a trade entry.
Entry 1 at 2792, Target 1 2760, Target 2 at 2730.
Gold price analysis February 3⭐️Fundamental Analysis
US President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China, starting from 05:01 GMT on Tuesday. The reason is to combat illegal immigration and drug trafficking. Canada and Mexico responded with retaliatory tariffs, while China announced it would file a lawsuit at the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Markets reacted negatively, with the S&P 500 down 1.40% in particular, and money flows into the US dollar instead of gold. However, if China retaliates, gold, which is considered an inflation hedge, could rise. Traders will also pay attention to US and Chinese manufacturing PMI data, along with speeches from the Federal Reserve, which could impact gold prices.
⭐️Technical Analysis
Gold prices were pushed down by sellers around 2777 after hitting an all-time high. The important support of 2765 plays a role in pushing the gold price back to its upward trajectory. When the 2765 zone is broken, pay attention to the next 2 zones around 2746 and 2727. When the uptrend resumes, it will meet the reaction of the sellers around 2791 and the all-time high zone around 2814.
The world gold market turned down sharplyAsset Strategies International president and CEO Rich Checkan predicts that gold will likely face profit-taking pressure in the short term. However, he still believes that the gold shortage in London, tariff policies from US President Donald Trump and "persistent" inflation will contribute to driving gold prices higher.
After central banks announce their interest rate decisions and inflation data, this week the market will turn its attention from there to labor issues, with the December nonfarm payrolls report due. released on Friday.
Gold traders will also be interested in a variety of other data expected to influence the market, such as manufacturing and services activity reports, employment numbers, and the Bank's monetary policy decision. UK goods, weekly unemployment claims in the US, and preliminary data on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan in January.
World gold prices are under pressureDespite the decline, gold prices are receiving very positive forecasts from experts. Kitco News' latest weekly gold survey shows that industry experts maintain a positive view on the precious metal. Meanwhile, retail investors also forecast that gold prices will reach higher levels in the near future.
9 experts, equivalent to 69%, expect gold prices to exceed record levels this week. There are 4 experts, equivalent to 31%, forecasting that gold prices will decrease. No one thinks gold will move sideways or accumulate this week.
Meanwhile, 147 investors participated in Kitco's online poll, with individual investors as optimistic as experts.
101 traders, or 69%, expect gold prices to rise next week, while 27, or 18%, expect gold to fall. The remaining 19 investors, accounting for 13% of the total, believe that gold will move sideways in the short term.
🔥 XAUUSD SELL 2784 2786🔥
✔️TP1: 2775
✔️TP2: 2765
✔️TP3: OPEN
🚫 SL: 2795
Bitcoin Gold Direct Trading Pair - VERY IMPORTANT TO WATCH THISBitcoin Gold trading pair
PA heading towards 2.272 Fib extension line.
This has been Support since Nov 2024 and is now a firm line of Support at 34.52 Ounces of Gold per Bitcoin
Also about to hit 100 Daily SMA )( SMA ). This may also provide support just above the Fib line
Since December, we have been seeing a Rise in Gold prices as demand escalates due to various Macro reasons around the world.
Bitcoin has held a steady range while trading against Gold.
Now, I am Watching this close.
If BTC looses this line of Support and begins Loosing out to Gold because Gold continues to Rise, signals a Shift of Sentiment for BTC
The traditional Store of Value Wins against the New Kid on the block as a safe haven
Macro uncertainty driving money flow.
We now have Trump imposing Higher Tariffs Oon international trade and THIS alone is driving Massive uncertainty and so Stocks are falling and that money needs to go somewhere.
It has been GOLD since January this year, Rising to a New ATH
At the same Time, Bitcoin has effectively ranged just below the current ATH
GOLD has the momentum right now and is taking the prize
And THIS is why this chart is so important.
BITCOIN MUST NOT LOOSE THIS SUPPORT
DXT $ is also rising, maybe with the static interest rate and possibility of a Rise later in the year if inflation continues to rise.
Extreme Caution right now
Trading Gold Futures Amid Global Trade TensionsCOMEX: Micro Gold Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! ) #Microfutures
The United States will be implementing new tariffs on Saturday, February 1st, including 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as well as a 10% duty on all goods from China. These countries are the Top 3 U.S. trading partners, contributing to 40% of all goods and services imported into the US in 2023, collectively.
On Friday, gold prices surpassed the key $2,800 mark for the first time ever. Spot gold rose 0.6% to $2,810.55 per troy ounce, after hitting a record high of $2,817.23. The record rally is fueled by a flight to safety as trade tensions rise.
Gold futures are trading at a premium to spot gold prices. The lead April contract of the benchmark COMEX gold futures settled at $2,833 on Friday.
Looking back, the trade tensions between the US and China have intensified since 2018. This time, higher tariffs will be applied globally, not only to competitors of U.S. interests, but also to close allies such as Canada, Mexico and the European Union.
Lessons from the US-China Trade Conflict
How would the global trade conflicts shape up? Uncertainties remain elevated. Luckily, the US-China trade conflict provides us historical lessons with present-day relevancy.
Let’s have a quick review of the major timeline of key events:
• July 6, 2018: The trade conflict begins as the US imposes 25% tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods. China retaliates with tariffs on an equal amount of US goods.
• August 23, 2018: The US imposes additional 25% tariffs on another $16 billion worth of Chinese goods. China responds with tariffs on $16 billion worth of US goods.
• September 24, 2018: The US imposes 10% tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. China retaliates with tariffs on $60 billion worth of US goods.
• December 1, 2018: A temporary truce is agreed upon during the G20 summit, with a 90-day period for negotiations.
• January 15, 2020: The "Phase One" trade deal is signed, easing some tariffs and committing China to increase purchases of US goods.
Gold prices responded quickly at each stage of the trade conflict, creating ample trading opportunities. On June 7, 2022, I published “Event-Driven Strategy Focusing on Global Crisis” on TradingView, based on my own trading experience from 2018-19. A link to this write-up is provided here for your information:
In summary, I observed patterns in gold prices while the trade conflict was progressing, and designed event-driven strategy based on Game Theory. Here are the highlights:
• US initiated new tariffs; Gold prices went up (“Risk On”)
• China retaliated with new tariffs; Gold prices went up further ("Risk On”)
• US and China announced trade negotiations; Gold prices went down (“Risk Off”)
• Negotiations broke down followed by new tariffs; Gold prices went up (“Risk On”)
• Negotiations resumed; Gold prices went down (“Risk Off”)
• Trade agreement was reached; Gold prices went down sharply (“Risk Off”)
The “Fight-and-Talk” could go multiple rounds, pushing tariffs to higher levels. Just how high?
China previously maintained a 12% import tariff on U.S. pork products. In its first round of trade retaliation in 2018, China imposed an additional 25% tariff on US pork. A month later, another 25% was added. Pork tariff went up a further 10% in the third round of retaliation, making the total tariff on US pork at a mind-boggling 72%!
As shown in the chart, gold responded in an observable manner following each key event. This repetitive pattern made it possible to set up trades in anticipation of the next moves.
The Sequence of Next Moves in Trade Conflicts
Learning from the previous experience, we could simulate a series of scenarios when new tariffs are imposed on goods from Canada, Mexico, China and the EU.
• US initiates new tariffs; Gold prices go up (“Risk On”)
• The other country retaliates with new tariffs; Gold prices go up further ("Risk On”)
• The two countries announced trade negotiations; Gold prices go down (“Risk Off”)
• Trade agreement is reached; Gold prices go down sharply (“Risk Off”)
In my opinion, the countries involved would retaliate but may want to avoid a costly trade conflict dragging on. With the brutality of the last trade conflict still fresh in mind, trade deals could be reached more quickly. From a trading perspective, the Fight-and-Talk patterns could be repeated multiple times, making our event-driven strategy reusable.
Given that Canada, Mexico, China and the EU are the biggest U.S. trading partners, the price swing in gold could be more volatile. Conflicts with smaller trading partners, such as Taiwan and the Southeastern Asian countries, may not trigger big moves in gold.
The CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that on January 28th, total Open Interest (OI) for Gold Futures is 577,505, up 15% from the level last November when the U.S. election was held. Interest in using gold for trading or hedging goes up with the escalation of risk.
“Swap Dealers” own 363,051 contracts, making them the largest trader category to own gold futures positions.
• Swap Dealers have 29,725 in Long, 272,549 in Short, and 60,777 in Spreading
• The long-short ratio of 1:9 indicates that “Smart Money” is overwhelmingly bearish
There is another supporting factor for a bearish view:
A key driver in gold prices is the geopolitical crisis. President Trump announced that he planned to meet with President Xi of China within the first 100 days in office. A meeting between President Trump and Russian President Putin is also being planned.
As we know, bullion is a preferred asset during times of turmoil. We may soon see the geopolitical risks unwinding, which will send gold prices sharply down. This could happen when Russia and Ukraine end their military conflict with a peace treaty.
Trade Setup with Micro Gold Futures
If a trader shares a similar view, he could express his opinion by shorting the COMEX Micro Gold Futures ( AMEX:MGC ).
MGC contracts have a notional value of 10 troy ounces. With Friday settlement price of 2,833, each April contract (MGCJ5) has a notional value of $28,330. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $1,150.
The MGC contracts are very liquid. On Thursday, MGC has a daily trade volume of 126,712 contracts and an Open Interest of 30,633.
Hypothetically, a trader shorts April MGC contract and gold prices pull back 5% to 2,691. A short futures position would gain $1,420 (=142 x $10). Using the initial margin as cost base, a theoretical return would be +123% (= 1420 / 1150). The risk of shorting gold futures is rising gold prices. Investors could lose part of or all their initial margin.
Traders could express the same view with the standard COMEX Gold (GC) futures or the newly launched 1-ounce gold futures, which represent just 1/10 the size of a Micro Gold (MGC) futures contract and 1/100 of GC futures contract.
To learn more about all the Micro futures and options contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site:
www.cmegroup.com
The Leap trading competition, sponsored by CME Group, will begin at TradingView on February 3rd. I encourage you to join The Leap and compete to be the best in CME Group futures trading and win a share of $25,000 in cash prizes or an additional six months to your TradingView subscription.
www.tradingview.com
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Gold Rush 2025? Charting the Course for XAUUSD.Gold (XAUUSD) is currently showing a strong uptrend on the 4-hour chart. We've seen a consistent climb, suggesting buyers are in control. Looking at the chart, I've marked some key levels to watch. The most immediate resistance is right where we are now, around 2,804.96. If the price breaks through that, I'd expect it to continue upwards. Below us, I see potential support around 2,737, 2,695, and down to, 2,662. These are areas where the price might find buyers if it pulls back.
Fundamentally, gold is often seen as a safe haven. Things that could push its price up include a weaker US dollar, rising inflation, or any big global uncertainties. On the flip side, if the US economy strengthens, the dollar gets stronger, or inflation cools down, we might see gold's price drop. The Fed's interest rate decisions are also a major factor, as higher rates tend to make the dollar more attractive.
My overall bias right now is bullish for the short term. The price action looks strong, and if we break through this current resistance, there's room to move higher. However, I'm keeping an eye on those support levels in case we see a reversal. It's important to remember that the market can change quickly, so I'd definitely keep up with the news and adjust my view as needed. I wouldn't make any big decisions based just on this chart, but it gives me a good idea of what's happening right now.
Concerns about Trump's tariff policies are boosting gold demand
Gold prices have surged to an all-time high as demand for safe haven increased significantly, driven by the concerns of Trump's tariff policy. The 25% tariff threats on Mexico and Canada are creating significant uncertainty in the trade and foreign relations of the Trump administration. Investors are turning to gold as a reliable refuge from the DeepSeek shock and the tremendously high valuations of major US tech stocks, seeking a safe haven amid the current volatility. Furthermore, the US Q4 GDP growth of 2.3% fell short of the 2.7% market forecast, intensifying the demand for gold as a safe haven.
While sustaining a solid uptrend, XAUUSD recorded a historical high. Both EMAs continue to widen the gap, pointing to an extension of bullish momentum. If XAUUSD holds above the ascending trendline, the price could gain upward momentum toward a new high of 2850. Conversely, if XAUUSD fails to hold above the support at 2780 and EMA21, the price may retreat below the trendline.