Analyzing the Factors Behind the Recent Gold Price Decline
A Post-Election Dip
Gold prices experienced a significant decline following the recent US election. The precious metal, often seen as a safe-haven asset, retreated as the US dollar strengthened and Treasury yields surged. This confluence of factors put pressure on gold, which tends to perform poorly in a rising interest rate environment.
Why Did Gold Fall?
1. Stronger US Dollar: A stronger US dollar typically weighs on gold prices. When the dollar appreciates, it becomes more expensive for foreign buyers to purchase gold, reducing demand for the precious metal.
2. Rising Treasury Yields: Higher Treasury yields reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. As bond yields rise, investors may shift their focus from gold to fixed-income securities.
3. Reduced Safe-Haven Demand: The election results, while not entirely unexpected, may have reduced some of the safe-haven demand for gold. Investors may have perceived less geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty, leading them to seek out riskier assets.
Is More Downside Ahead for Gold?
While the recent decline in gold prices has been significant, it's important to consider the factors that could influence its future trajectory:
1. Economic Uncertainty: Despite the post-election rally, global economic uncertainty remains elevated. Factors such as geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and potential economic slowdowns could continue to support gold's safe-haven appeal.
2. Inflationary Pressures: Persistent inflationary pressures could drive investors toward gold as a hedge against currency devaluation. Central banks may need to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation, which could indirectly benefit gold.
3. Central Bank Demand: Central banks around the world have been significant buyers of gold in recent years. Continued central bank demand could provide support for gold prices.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, gold prices have broken below key support levels. A further decline could be on the cards, with potential targets at the next significant support levels. However, it's important to note that technical analysis is not foolproof, and market sentiment can change rapidly.
Investor Strategies
Given the current market conditions, investors may consider the following strategies:
1. Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): By investing a fixed amount of money in gold at regular intervals, investors can reduce the impact of market volatility.
2. Physical Gold: Owning physical gold can provide a tangible asset and hedge against inflation.
3. Gold ETFs: Gold ETFs offer a convenient way to invest in gold without the physical storage costs.
4. Diversification: Incorporating gold into a diversified investment portfolio can help reduce overall portfolio risk.
In conclusion, while the recent decline in gold prices is concerning, it's essential to consider the long-term factors that could influence its future trajectory. Investors should carefully assess their risk tolerance and investment goals before making any investment decisions related to gold.
Goldprice
Scenario GOLD levels update This view of gold actually somehow confirms that I should be on the good side of the market, outside of the original analysis, we could see a false breakout from which the price consolidated around the zone marked by me, which may show us a head-and-shoulders formation, which may be followed by a correction against this formation
Downtrend continues - GOLD slows down⭐️Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold (XAU/USD) faces heavy selling pressure heading into Wednesday’s European session, dropping to near $2,700, marking a nearly three-week low. With Republican nominee Donald Trump leading the US presidential race and likely to become the 47th president, the US Dollar is seeing a strong rally, spurring sell-offs in gold.
Concerns over deficit spending and expectations for a less aggressive rate cut from the Federal Reserve are also driving US Treasury yields higher, diverting interest from the non-yielding gold. Additionally, a risk-on mood—shown by a strong rally in US equity futures—suggests a downward trend may continue for XAU/USD.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
The election results pushed gold prices back to the support price range of 2700, a recovery in correction mode. Still maintaining the upcoming gold support zone: 2700 - 2680
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2748 - $2750 SL $2755
TP1: $2740
TP2: $2725
TP3: $2715
note scalping support: 2713
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2700 - $2702 SL $2695
TP1: $2708
TP2: $2715
TP3: $2730
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
11.6 Gold price plunged sidewaysAfter the high-volume plunge on Thursday, the gold price has been trading sideways above 2720. The price will maintain less than 30 US dollars in the short term. Yesterday, the direct 2745 dry short price can be repeatedly shorted in the short term. 2730 has been broken as expected on Tuesday, and the price will fall below 2700. The US dollar index has begun to rise sharply, and the non-US has already reacted very clearly, and the gold price is following closely. The 2745 dry short price has fallen to 2731 in the morning. Repeatedly go up to 2749 and do short again! At present, 2750 is the second highest point of the gold price. Wait patiently for the large short volume! This sideways trading is to accumulate power for diving!
Intraday strategy:
SELL: 2745 2750 Target: 30------20
BUY: 2700 2705 Target: 35-----40
Perfect Time to Buy Gold! Morning Star Signals Further UpsideGood morning, everyone! A new day, a new opportunity! Yesterday’s trading brought us solid profits, and today we aim for even more gains.
In the current gold market, I believe buying is the optimal strategy. In the short term, gold is likely to rise before a potential pullback. What’s behind this view?
Take a look at the 30-minute chart: gold has successfully broken through the MA60 resistance and has formed a “morning star” pattern—a strong bullish signal indicating increased upward momentum. If MA60 can hold as support, gold is expected to rise to around 2745, possibly even reaching 2750.
11.5 Gold adjustment is still continuing!1: For gold price, 2730 is support in the short term! 2730 is just a rebound, not a reversal. The pressure is concentrated in the range of 2745-50. The sideways trading at the bottom is not a bottoming out, but a new adjustment is brewing.
2: The reason is that gold has fallen from the high of 2790 US dollars. After breaking through the support of 2770 US dollars, the high point position has continued to break down. Even if the non-agricultural data is positive in the middle, it did not drive gold to continue to rise. It just rebounded to above 2760 to complete the top and bottom conversion (previously 2760-70 was a strong support, and strong pressure was formed after breaking).
3: From the $60 plunge in gold last Friday to the non-agricultural data, which did not rise, it shows that the selling pressure from above is large, the buyer's power is weakened, and the gold price can no longer be sent to a higher position. Moreover, the rise from 2605 to 2790 is a full $185. The technical side also needs to be corrected, and the profit-taking urgently needs to close the position and leave the market, so it is not blindly optimistic to chase more!
The 1-hour structure clearly indicates that the highs have been moving down from 2790/2760/2748, while the lows of 2770/2734/2725 have been lost. This is a typical adjustment market pattern. There is no need to guess where the bottom is. Just keep an eye on whether the last high point has been lost.
Gold Trading Insights Ahead of the Election!Although gold didn’t fluctuate much today, our returns were quite impressive! These small range movements create excellent opportunities for agile buying and selling. As I mentioned yesterday, the New York market did indeed decline today, and the buy signal I provided at the open hit the TP of 2745 perfectly. I then began selling, ultimately closing the trade at 2733 with great results.
Tomorrow is the election, and I believe the results will boost the dollar, which could lead to a drop in gold prices. I plan to continue selling during tomorrow's New York session. What do you think?
Gold Consolidates Ahead of U.S. Election🟡 Gold Price Update: Currently at $2737.00
Gold has been moving sideways recently, showing a period of consolidation as market participants await further catalysts. This sideways movement reflects uncertainty and cautious positioning, likely influenced by the upcoming U.S. election. Historically, major events like elections can introduce volatility as investors seek safe-haven assets in times of uncertainty, and gold often responds with significant moves.
📊 Technical Outlook
Support Zone: $2725.00 - $2730.00
Resistance Zone: $2745.00 - $2755.00
Range: The current range-bound movement between $2725 and $2755 indicates that buyers and sellers are in balance for now, awaiting clearer market direction.
Key Indicators:
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently near the 50 level, showing neutral momentum. A breakout above 60 could signal buying strength, while a drop below 40 may suggest a bearish momentum.
Moving Averages: The 20-period SMA is close to the price action, underlining the ongoing consolidation. Watch for price action to decisively break above or below the SMA, potentially signaling a new trend.
Volume: Volume has been decreasing, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from either buyers or sellers. Look for a volume increase on any breakout to confirm the direction.
🔮 Possible Scenarios with U.S. Election Implications
With the election on the horizon, any surprising result or political uncertainty could cause a significant uptick in gold demand as investors seek safety. However, a clear result may bring stability, potentially putting downward pressure on gold.
Trade Setup Idea:
Bullish: Consider buying on a confirmed breakout above $2755, targeting $2780 or higher.
Bearish: A break below $2725 could open doors for a drop to $2700.
As always, keep your risk management tight and watch for news developments. The market will react sharply as new information comes in!
XAU / USD ! 11/4! Downtrend - correction continuesXAU / USD trend forecast November 4, 2024
Gold price (XAU/USD) sees modest gains around $2,740 during early Asian trading on Monday, breaking a two-day losing streak. Safe-haven demand for gold may rise due to uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election and Middle East tensions. The upcoming US presidential election on Tuesday is a key focus this week. Analysts at JPMorgan suggest that any decline in gold prices, regardless of the election results, could be a buying opportunity.
Gold price continues downtrend H1 - waiting for the US presidential election move and the decision to lower interest rates or not in November 2024
/// SELL XAU : zone 2747-2750
SL: 2755
TP: 50 - 120 - 200 pips (2730)
/// BUY XAU : zone 2717-2714
SL: 2709
TP: 50 - 120 - 200 pips (2734)
Safe and profitable trading
XAUUSD Analysis | Upcoming Election...GOLD recently bounced off the key resistance zone whilst creating all time highs for the last 2 weeks before slowing down before the next quarter phase of $2,800 where we saw a pivot correction into what could be a inner descending channel of the overall long term bull trend.
As price approaches a key support level which is met by several confirmations such as the EMA, Dynamic Trend, Lower BB + Latter half of this quarter phase we could see a short term pullback to test that newly created resistance and create a lower high inside the inner channel before descending to fulfil price at these confirmation levels of $2,700 and a suitable long entry point for the long term trend following the correct validations.
In previous times following elections the precious metal has had corrections from its price which would increase the probability of this idea but it is still important to be patient and make sure to wait for suitable confirmations to unfold before looking at entries due to the volatility that will occur primarily watching price action to gain better insight into the market movements.
If you like this analysis feel free to drop a like and comment your ideas about the upcoming direction of gold below :)
11.4 Gold daily line support high position is not guaranteedIn terms of gold, the overall gold price fell last Friday. The highest price rose to 2762.08 on the day, and the lowest price fell to 2733.08, closing at 2734.94. Looking back at the details of the gold market performance last Friday, the price stopped rising in the short term after the opening of the morning session, and then maintained a state of fluctuating rise during the day. At the same time, during the US session, the price rose and fell with the help of data, and then the price continued to fall weakly, and finally ended in a big negative state on the daily line. Today, Monday morning, it opened directly with a gap down. From the low point, the 2731-2734 range is the long-short watershed position at the daily level. Pay attention to the downhill performance of this area in the future. Once it breaks down, the band is expected to be further under pressure in the future. At the same time, from the four-hour level, pay attention to the resistance of the 2755-2756 range for the time being, and wait for the subsequent price to step back and then go short. As long as the price does not temporarily break the high point of last Friday, it will be treated as short first. There are signs of correction in the short term in the one-hour chart. At the same time, the price is in the key support area of the daily chart, so we will wait for the price to fall back and then go short. Once the price breaks below the 2731-2734 area, it is expected to be under further pressure.
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11.4 Where will the gold trend go?Last week, the gold market rose and fell. At the beginning of the week, the market opened at 2736.8, then fell back to give a weekly low of 2724.5, and then the market rose rapidly. On Thursday, the market gave a new historical high of 2790.2 for the second time, and then the market fell strongly. The weekly line finally closed at 2735, and the weekly line closed with a shooting star pattern with a very long upper shadow line. After such a pattern ended, the market had a signal of a decline this week. In terms of points, the long stop loss of 1996 and 2028 below is followed at 2600. Today, the short stop loss of 2752 is 2757. The lower target is 2730 and 2724. If it falls below, the support points of 2716 and 2705 are seen.
BUY: 2720 Target: 2740------50
SELL: 2755 Target: 2730------20
11.1 Gold shock awaits non-agricultureJudging from Wednesday's ADP, non-farm payrolls on Friday should also maintain good growth. The same is true for the initial clearing last night. The sharp retracement before the data is basically the early digestion of the data.
1. The price broke the morning starting point before the US market and rebounded at 6-8 o'clock. This pattern must not have fallen much.
We have been emphasizing this point of view to everyone recently: Don't buy more twice when gold retreats in the US market. After the increase is too large, it is easy to fall by a large margin. Double bottoms, 618, and other positions are not caught, and there is no rebound.
But compared with yesterday's empty, it is the rhythm. Continuous failures and no operating mentality are easy to form. If you can't get started when you see it right, and you can't hold back and get started, it's wrong.
2. The morning is still a cyclical rise.
Intraday analysis:
1. A sharp drop in the rise, the first day is still a bull correction, which has been seen countless times before.
2. The continuous sharp drop breaks the bottom, which changes the short-term bull direction.
3. There will be non-agricultural data tonight. Before the non-agricultural data, the overall market should not change much.
4. If the bearish outlook continues, the rebound in the morning is focused on the European session. If the European session continues to rebound, the US session will inevitably fluctuate. If the market is weak, the European session will retreat first.
At present, it is obviously the top of the hourly big Yin line at 2757, because this position breaks the position of the decline and rebound at 382. And there is no high point of correction in the early morning, so it can only be arranged at the top of the big Yin line.
At the same time, the non-agricultural data is divided into two parts:
1. Look at the second retracement before the non-agricultural data.
2. Whether the non-agricultural data can continue the decline of yesterday depends on the data. Last month, it was 254,000, and this time it is expected to be only 11.3. Whether it is from the initial claims or from ADP, it is impossible to be lower than 11.3. It can only be high. How high it is depends on the data performance.
Therefore, the worst non-agricultural data is also bad for gold. It just depends on how bad it is. For example, ADP rebounds first and then falls, or it retreats directly.
As long as the data is higher than 150,000, the pullback is also empty, but no matter what, the European session is very critical. The European session continues to rebound and is strong. The US session fluctuates, but the European session is weak, and the probability of breaking the bottom is high.