Bullish momentum remains. New catalysts?Next week's risk events:
1. US July CPI data and Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision
2. US July PPI and initial jobless claims
3. US July retail sales, core retail sales, and the University of Michigan preliminary consumer confidence index.
The market will focus on whether the impact of tariffs begins to show up in inflation data and whether consumer spending data confirms economic resilience. A mild reading would reinforce expectations of a rate cut, positive for US stocks and gold. An unexpectedly high inflation rate could delay the Fed's pace of easing, weighing on risk assets and supporting the US dollar.
Gold's continued rise this week is a continuation of the strong non-farm payroll report. Although there have been slight dips along the way, it has stabilized above the mid-line, and the upward resistance has been fluctuating. Therefore, there is a high probability of further breakouts next week.
Judging from the 1-hour line, each decline was not sustained, and then buying intervened and the market began to rise sharply, so the current big cycle is still bullish, but it is not certain that the upward trend will break out next week without a major positive push. Only if it holds above the 3410 level and allows for extended correction time will new momentum emerge next week to continue its breakout trend.
Trading Strategy:
Short around 3405, stop loss at 3415, profit range 3380-3370
Long around 3375, stop loss at 3365, profit range 3390-3400-3410.
