Gold - The diligent top formation!🏆Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) finished the bullrun:
🔎Analysis summary:
For the past 10 years, Gold has been trading in a very strong expected bullrun. Just like we witnessed it in 2011, a 10 year bullrun is followed by a shorter term bearmarket. Gold is starting to lose its strength, which is a clear sign of weakness and the beginning of a bearish reversal.
📝Levels to watch:
$2.800
SwingTraderPhil
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Goldpriceaction
Opportunities only come to those who are preparedThe market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September to be over 70%, with some institutions even predicting as high as 93.6%. Fed officials have recently released dovish remarks. If the rate cut is implemented, it will reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is good for gold prices. The US has imposed tariffs on India and Switzerland, exacerbating global trade tensions and boosting demand for gold as a safe haven. The deadlock in the Iran nuclear talks and the shipping risks in the Red Sea have increased market risk aversion. Focus is on US initial jobless claims data and speeches by Fed officials. If the data is stronger than expected, it may suppress expectations of a rate cut and be bearish for gold. If the US dollar strengthens or geopolitical risks ease, gold prices may come under pressure and fall. Today, gold mainly showed a high-level fluctuation trend, hitting a high of $3397.25/oz in European trading before falling sharply. It is currently trading around $3382. Although gold prices are still in an upward channel, they have recently shown a high sideways trend. The market lacks unilateral driving factors. Gold can be shorted at high levels. It is recommended to short gold in batches around the highs of 3390-3405.
Gold is under pressure. Can the upward trend continue?On Thursday, gold rose rapidly in the European session, reaching around 3397, but failed to successfully break through the 3400 integer mark; it currently fell back slightly and fluctuated around 3375. Judging from the 4-hour chart, the price is currently running close to the middle track of the Bollinger band; since the market opened this week, the gold price has continued to run above the middle track of the Bollinger band. Despite the slight decline, it has remained within the upward trend channel and has continuously set new highs.
The current upward pressure position remains at 3390-3400, and the key support level is around 3370, which is also the crossover position of the current MA5, 10, and 20 moving averages. The RSI indicator remains above its midline, indicating that bullish momentum remains.
Quaid believes that as long as the price remains above 3370 in the US session, any pullback will be a sign of accumulating upward momentum. Gold still has the trend of hitting the 3400 integer mark.
Trading strategy:
Go long near 3370, stop loss at 3360, profit range 3380-3390-3400.
Short near 3400, stop loss at 3410, profit range 3375-3365-3355.
Gold fluctuates repeatedly. How can we avoid detours?Gold currently lacks sustained bullish momentum. The monthly chart has formed four consecutive upper shadows, indicating significant market pressure at high levels. Bulls are hesitant to take risks and lack the appetite for aggressive action, leading to a typical volatile pattern of rapid rises and equally rapid declines in gold prices. Yesterday's price action further confirmed this pattern. Although gold prices briefly reached a new high after bottoming out and rebounding, they were unable to consolidate above that level and subsequently retreated rapidly. Currently, the 3380-3390 area has become a key short-term resistance level, but repeated attempts to retest it have led to heavy selling pressure. Meanwhile, the 3370 area, a trading-intensive zone, poses significant downside risks for gold if it breaks below it, potentially extending the range to 3355-3340. Technically, resistance is concentrated in the 3380-3390 area, while support lies at 3355-3340. Short-term volatility is largely locked within this range. We recommend maintaining a volatile strategy of buying high and selling low.
Regarding trading strategies, we recommend placing short positions in batches within the 3375-3390 area, targeting 3360-3345. Pay attention to position control and stop-loss settings during this process. If the price rebounds to the support area and stabilizes, consider short-term long positions to flexibly respond to the intraday rhythm.
Gold Consolidates at High Levels. Waiting for a New Trend?Gold barely held the 3360 level on Wednesday and will remain in the 3360-3380 consolidation range outlined by Quaid.
Quaid considers Thursday to be a more important day. From a timing perspective, today may impact whether gold can continue its upward trend. However, it is possible that the market could continue its consolidation today. One thing is that the daily line must close above 3360, then the subsequent rise in gold will continue.
On the contrary, if it closes below 3360, then the rise will definitely not be able to continue in the short term. In the short term, gold may remain above 3370 today.
We can see that 3375-3370 is an important support, but the daily line has not yet stabilized above 3380, so the upward space has not yet been opened. If the daily chart can stabilize above 3380, then a test of 3400-3410 is in the cards.
Trading strategy:
Buy between 3365-3370, stop loss at 3355, profit range 3380-3390-3400.
Prices are suppressed. Will they rise amidst volatility?Information Summary:
Trump's upcoming appointment of Federal Reserve officials has the market on the sidelines, leading to a pullback in gold prices, but bullish sentiment remains.
Quaid believes that most investors are closely watching the White House's upcoming Federal Reserve appointments and any trade-related news, which could have a significant impact on market sentiment.
Furthermore, market expectations for a September rate cut are high. After last week's weak jobs report, investors are pricing in an 87% chance of a September rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Following the release of the report, Trump fired the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, further exacerbating policy uncertainty.
As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold generally performs better in environments with increased political and economic uncertainty and low interest rates.
Market Analysis:
Gold prices retreated slightly on Wednesday, but Quaid believes there is still room for further gains, with a short-term target of 3,400. Supporting factors include: continued tariff friction; slowing economic growth and inflation concerns; and a weak US dollar.
Looking at the hourly chart, the Fibonacci 0.382 position is right around 3380. Moreover, the top of the trend line of gold's bottoming rebound is also at this position, so if the pressure of 3380 cannot be broken through, we need to be alert to the possibility of a pullback.
Next, keep an eye on 3360. If gold can't break through 3380, it may consolidate between 3360 and 3380.
If bears continue to push down the price below 3360, a test of 3340 is possible.
Gold retreats. Is it gathering upward momentum?
The 4-hour chart shows a clear market trend. On Tuesday, gold reached a high near 3390, and it's now firmly above the 4-hour trendline. The retracement reached a low near 3350, essentially completing the correction. Therefore, today's upward trend is likely to continue, aiming for new highs. The current resistance level is around 3400-3410.
From the 1-hour chart, key support lies between 3370-3360. Quaid believes that today's price must not fall below 3360. If it falls back below 3360, it's likely to retest the low of 3350.
However, as long as it remains above support, gold will remain in an upward trend. Upward resistance lies around 3400-3410.
Trading strategy:
Go long near 3360, stop loss at 3345, profit range 3380-3400.
Short near 3390, stop loss at 3410, profit range 3380-3370-3360.
XAU/USD 06 August 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
You will note that price has targeted weak internal high on three separate occasions which has now formed a triple top, this is a bearish reversal pattern and proving this zone is a strong supply level. This is in-line with HTF bearish pullback phase.
Remainder of analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025.
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
H4 Timeframe - Price has failed to target weak internal high, therefore, it would not be unrealistic if price printed a bearish iBOS.
The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price.
As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
What you see are fluctuations, what I see are opportunities!Gold prices are rising as expected, with long positions perfectly fulfilled and periodic profits successfully secured. Currently, prices are once again encountering resistance at 3390. A clear bearish engulfing pattern has formed on the short-term hourly chart, suggesting weakening short-term momentum and increasing risk of a pullback. From a cyclical perspective, today marks the fifth trading day of gold's rebound, and technically, a periodic adjustment is necessary. A break below 3370 today will essentially confirm the establishment of a short-term top, and the market structure may shift into a phase of decline. Regarding trading recommendations, we recommend continuing to short on rallies around 3390 as a key resistance level, with short-term targets focused on 3370-3360. A subsequent break below this level with significant volume could open up further downside potential. Market sentiment is shifting rapidly at this time, so it is crucial to strictly enforce risk management discipline, avoid blindly chasing orders, and maintain a flexible and forward-looking strategy.
Gold is strong. Is a round number nearing its high?Information Summary:
On Tuesday, Trump made a splash. He announced four nominees for the next Federal Reserve Chair, removing Treasury Secretary Bensont from the list. He also announced tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals next week, warned of increasing tariffs on Indian goods "within the next 24 hours," and threatened to impose a 35% tariff on the EU if it failed to fulfill its obligations.
As a result, gold rose nearly $30 from its intraday low of $3,350, briefly breaking above $3,380.
Market Analysis:
Gold has been trending upwards since the start of the week, with four consecutive daily gains, indicating a gradual buildup of bullish momentum. Judging from the 1-hour moving average indicator, the MA5 and 10 moving averages are currently turning downward, while the 20 and 30 moving averages are moving flat, which indicates that the overall short-term market trend is waiting for a price correction. Quaid believes investors should wait for the price correction to complete before entering a long position.
The key short-term trend is Tuesday's low of 3350. If gold prices hold above this level, we should maintain a positive outlook in the short term. The first resistance level above is near Tuesday’s high of 3390; the second focus is on the 3400 integer mark.
Trading strategy:
Short around 3395, stop loss at 3405, profit range 3370-3350
Long around 3350-3360, stop loss at 3340, profit range 3370-3390.
Gold continues its upward trend. A strong week ahead?Gold's technical outlook on the daily chart maintains a bullish structure, with prices trading within the upper middle Bollinger Bands. The 7-day and 10-day moving averages have formed a golden cross, and the RSI indicator is trading above its mid-axis.
The short-term 1-hour chart shows prices trading within the upper middle Bollinger Bands, with the moving averages forming a golden cross and the RSI indicator pointing upwards. Quaid believes that the trading strategy for Wednesday remains unchanged, with the main focus on low-level long positions during pullbacks, supplemented by high-level short positions.
Gold initially fell before rising on Tuesday, breaking through the intraday high and touching the 3390 level. It closed with a doji with upper and lower shadows. The current bullish trend remains intact, with the moving averages in a bullish formation. However, the 4-hour chart is approaching the acceleration line, creating downward pressure. This suggests a short-term bullish risk zone, and it is advisable to avoid buying at high levels. The hourly chart showed a sideways trend, closing below the upper line. While it hasn't broken below the moving average, the indicator has turned. Therefore, based on the overall market trend today, Quaid believes there's a high probability of further upward movement after a correction.
Trading Strategy:
Long at 3355-3360, stop loss at 3345, profit range 3380-3400;
Short at 3390-3395, stop loss at 3405, profit range 3360-3350;
Key Points:
First Support Level: 3370, Second Support Level: 3360, Third Support Level: 3350
First Resistance Level: 3390, Second Resistance Level: 3400, Third Resistance Level: 3410
What does it matter if every step is just right?Today's gold fluctuation rhythm is basically consistent with our prediction. The rhythm from entry to profit-taking is clear, and the strategy is executed decisively. First, we decisively arranged long orders at the 3365-3370 line, and successfully took profit at the target line 3375, earning 150pips of profit. Then we decisively reversed and arranged short orders at 3375. The market fell back to around 3360 as expected, and realized 150pips of profit again. In the third round of operations, long orders were entered again near 3352, and the price rose smoothly to 3370 to take profit again. The overall rhythm was tight and profits were steadily pocketed. At present, gold has rebounded to around 3380-3385. We have deployed a new round of short orders in advance and will wait for the price to drop before arranging long orders. Overall, gold is in a volatile rhythm. Even if there is still room for upward movement in the future, it is likely to undergo a round of technical retracement adjustments first.
Gold has bottomed out and rebounded. Where will the high point bGold has currently hit a low near 3350, rebounding from the bottom and now rising to around 3390.
Looking at the 1-hour chart:
The most critical upward level is currently around 3390. If the price breaks through this level and stabilizes above it, the late July high of 3430 could be revisited. Conversely, if it remains below 3390, the overall range will remain between 3350 and 3390.
Secondly, looking at the 4-hour chart, we can see that the trend line resistance level is also currently around 3390. If the price stabilizes above 3390, the upper 4-hour chart could directly reach the 3400-3410 range. If the price holds above 3410 again, the next target would be around 3450.
In gold trading, timing is key!Gold has currently reached a high of around 3385. The technical retracement and correction is also an affirmation of the bulls, and the current support below will continue to move up. From the perspective of the large range of the daily line, there is no large unilateral trend, and the overall box consolidation pattern has been formed. It once rose to 3385 yesterday, but failed to stand firm, indicating that the pressure from above is still quite large. If it can break through 3400, the next target may be 3430; otherwise, it may start a round of deep adjustment. There is a need for technical adjustment, so it is not advisable to chase the rise too much. If your current operation is not ideal, I hope I can help you avoid detours in your investment. Welcome to communicate with us!
Judging from the structure of the 4-hour gold chart, the key support area below is around 3350-3340. If it falls back to this area and stabilizes during the day, you can continue to rely on this area to arrange long orders. The overall bullish thinking remains unchanged. The short-term resistance above is around 3375-3385. If it breaks through, it will further test the key suppression zone of 3390-3400. I will prompt the specific operation strategy at the bottom. I suggest you keep paying attention and follow up in time.
Gold operation strategy: Go long when gold falls back to around 3350-3340, with the target at 3370-3380.
How to seize the best entry point for gold?Gold continued its bullish trend from last Friday, rising to a high of 3385 yesterday. However, the upward momentum failed to sustain, and new highs were not reached during today's Asian and European trading sessions. The short-term bullish trend has ended, and the market is showing signs of correction. Currently, gold is facing downward pressure in the short term, and the short-term trend is volatile. Strategically, we can watch for a rebound to the 3375-3385 area during the European trading session and try to participate in short-term short selling. The target is below 3365-3355. The long-term structure remains bullish. Therefore, if the price falls back to the 3355-3340 area and stabilizes, we can still consider entering long positions to continue the medium-term uptrend. In terms of trading, we should pay attention to the rhythm of the market, betting on rebound resistance with short-term short positions and then going long on dips, maintaining flexibility.
Go long on the pullback and head straight to new highs!Gold fell back and stabilized at 3345 yesterday, and continued to rise during the US trading session, reaching a high of 3385. The overnight daily line closed positive again, which is in line with our expectations, so there is still room for growth. We will continue to take a bullish approach today. In the 4H cycle, the Bollinger opening is in the stage of large volume, and the consecutive positive lines are rising steadily based on the moving average. The support below is 3370-3360, and the intraday watershed is at 3360. The operation is mainly to go long on pullbacks. First look at the pressure of the 3385 high point. If it breaks, continue to look at 3395 and 3410.
Gold operation suggestion: go long on gold around 3370-3360, and look at 3385 and 3400.
XAU/USD 05 August 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
You will note that price has targeted weak internal high on three separate occasions which has now formed a triple top, this is a bearish reversal pattern and proving this zone is a strong supply level. This is in-line with HTF bearish pullback phase.
Remainder of analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025.
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
H4 Timeframe - Price has failed to target weak internal high, therefore, it would not be unrealistic if price printed a bearish iBOS.
The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price.
As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Gold prices have retreated slightly. Is there an opportunity to From the daily chart:
Gold prices haven't held above 3380, so the primary resistance level remains around 3385.
Currently, the daily moving average support is far from the high, with support below 3340-3360. While the daily trend remains bullish, the risk of a pullback and subsequent upward movement cannot be ruled out.
From the 1-hour chart, Quaid believes the price cannot fall below 3365. 3365 marked the opening high on Monday. Common sense suggests that if gold remains above 3365, it may remain at a high level for a short-term consolidation.
Thus, today's focus is on the key level of 3365. If the price doesn't fall below this level, consider going long at this level, waiting for a profit after another rally to the resistance range, and then shorting within the key resistance range.
Gold is fluctuating at a high level. Latest analysis.On Monday, gold surged to around 3370 in the morning before retreating slightly. It fell back to support near $3345 in the European session. The dividing line between bulls and bears lies below 3340, which also marks the support level and the top-bottom reversal before the close of last Friday's non-farm payroll report.
Quaid planned to go long near 3340 on Monday, but the price rebounded to 3345, halting its decline and then fluctuating sideways, preventing an entry opportunity. However, a short opportunity near 3385 was successfully implemented with a slight pullback. Although it did not reach the expected target, a small profit was achieved after the pullback to 3370.
Monday showed an overall upward trend, with the closing price fluctuating at a high level, reaching a high around 3385 before retracing to confirm 3370. The overall market trend remains upward, with a temporary potential for a move to around $3400. Quaid recommends a buy-on-low strategy today. Currently, the 1-hour moving average is trending flat, and the trend of prices continuing to fluctuate at high levels cannot be ruled out.
Support for Tuesday's pullback lies near 3370. The key to a renewed rally lies at 3360, also the level of resistance before Monday's US market opening. As long as this level remains intact, the overall strategy remains unchanged. Alternatively, watch for a re-break of 3385, with upside targets at 3385-3390-3400.
Strategy:
Long at 3360-3365, stop-loss at 3355, profit range at 3380-3400;
Short at 3395-3400, stop-loss at 3410, profit range at 3370-3350;
Key Points:
First Support Level: 3370, Second Support Level: 3360, Third Support Level: 3350
First Resistance Level: 3385, Second Resistance Level: 3395, Third Resistance Level: 3405.
Upward movement suppressed. Price pullback?Gold prices have now perfectly reached the short-selling target range predicted by Quaid.
The current 4-hour chart clearly shows that gold's current resistance level remains around 3385.
Looking at the shorter 15-minute chart, gold has been slowly rising within an upward channel today. The resistance level of 3385 has not been effectively broken, and there is a high probability of a further pullback to test the 15-minute trendline.
Currently, 15-minute trendline support remains around 3355-3360. Focus on this support range in the short term, as it also represents a profit-taking opportunity after shorting at the 3385 high. This level can also be considered a watershed between bulls and bears. If the price pulls back to this level and does not continue to decline, there is a high probability of another upward move at this level.
However, if it falls below the 3350 trendline, the market will enter a downward trend.
Good luck to everyone in the new week.
Why do you always miss the real opportunities?Judging from the current gold trend, gold rose to a high of around 3368 and then entered a narrow range of fluctuations. Our previous long plan failed to continue to hold at the high level. Although some brothers may feel regretful, the market is always full of variables. We must flexibly adjust our thinking according to market changes. At present, there is a need for a retracement on the technical side. This retracement is not a trend reversal, but provides space for subsequent bullish momentum. Overall, the bullish trend is still dominant, but the current price is approaching the important pressure area of 3370-3385. The short-term carrying capacity has weakened, and it is not advisable to chase highs blindly. It is recommended to be cautious at high levels in operations. In the short term, it can be given priority to try to intervene with short positions in batches in the 3370-3385 area, waiting for a technical correction. If it subsequently retraces to the key support area of 3350-3335 and stabilizes, you can consider the long position layout again and continue to participate in the main bull trend.
Gold operation suggestion: short in batches in the 3370-3385 area, with the target at 3355-3350. If it falls back to the 3350-3335 area and stabilizes, consider entering a long position at the right time.
As the bull market continues, is gold poised to hit new highs?Judging from the current gold trend, the technical side opened high and closed low, releasing the demand for short-term adjustments. The intraday low hit 3344 and then rebounded, which is enough to reflect the resilience of the bulls. The hourly doji continued to rise, and the 3353 line was pulled up again. It is expected that it will be difficult to give an entry opportunity near 3340-3345 again. Since the new high has been refreshed again, the technical short-term adjustment may have ended. With the current strong bull structure, further testing the 3370-3380 area is a high probability event. If it unexpectedly falls below 3340 in the future, the bulls will no longer defend strongly, and the market may turn to volatility. Breaking below 3340 is also expected to open up short-term short space, but this is a later story. The current market structure is clear, and we continue to see a strong upward trend for the bulls. At least at the beginning of the week, I do not think the bull market is nearing its end.
Gold operation suggestion: go long around 3360-3355, target 3370-3380.Strictly set stop loss and control your position.
Gold prices fluctuate. Bullish theme?From a technical perspective, gold prices have retraced above key moving averages, and the RSI has turned bullish. Short-term resistance for gold is near 3370. Can gold continue its sharp rise this week? Will there be a new rise? This depends on the performance of risk aversion in the market this week.
Quaid believes that 3330 is the watershed between bulls and bears at the beginning of the week. As long as the market is bullish, this level must not be broken. If it is broken, the gold trend will directly turn weak. Whether this week's daily moving average can continue to rise is key to triggering a bullish trend in gold.
From the 4-hour chart, pay attention to the range pressure position of 3370-3375 on the upper side, and the support on the lower side is around 3330-3335. If the price falls back at the beginning of the week, it can be bullish based on this position. The short-term bullish strong dividing line should pay attention to this range.