Gold (XAU/USD) Intraday Outlook – 12 June 2025Current Price: ~$3,373 (intraday) –
Gold is holding near recent highs after a sharp rally. Bullish momentum has improved markedly, fueled in part by favorable fundamentals (soft US CPI and geopolitical tensions lifting safe-haven demand)
On the charts, the short-term trend is upward, with buyers firmly in control following a breakout above prior resistance.
4H Trend & Key Levels
4H chart highlighting break of structure, demand (green) and supply (red) zones, and key intraday levels. Note the major demand zone that held around 3,214 (green) and the supply zone near 3,284 (red) which was a focal resistance. The 50% retracement of the prior day’s range (blue line near 3,274) acted as intraday resistance in that earlier session
Such annotations show where institutional activity likely set support (demand) and resistance (supply) areas. On the 4-hour chart, gold’s momentum is strongly bullish. The recent surge to 3375 pushed price above its 10-day moving average and widened the upper Bollinger Bands on both H1 and H4 – signs of a powerful uptrend. This came after gold cleared a major resistance around the $3,350 zone, which had capped prices earlier. With that barrier broken, the next upside target on the higher time frame is the $3,400 level (a notable psychological and technical hurdle)
In fact, it can be projected that a clean breakout above the ~3,380/3,390 zone could open the path toward $3,403 and even $3,430 in extension
Reflecting the next supply areas or Fibonacci extension targets above. Support levels on the 4H are stepping up as the trend rises. Previously, $3,320 (the last day’s high in late May) turned from resistance into support after the breakout. Now, immediate support is seen around $3,345–3,350, which corresponds to the top of the recent consolidation and roughly the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of this week’s rally
Below that, the $3,330–3,335 zone (around the 61.8% retracement of the rally) is a secondary intraday support area
These levels also align with prior demand zones and the previous day’s lows, making them likely zones where buyers might step in on dips. Overall, as long as gold holds above the mid-$3,300s, the 4H bias remains bullish. The 4H structure shows higher highs and higher lows, and technical signals (price above short-term EMAs and an improving RSI) reinforce the short-term bullish outlook
Educational Note: In an uptrend, old resistance often becomes new support. Here $3,350 was a major resistance in the past and could serve as support if prices pull back. Traders also watch Fibonacci retracement levels within the up-move for potential bounce points – for gold, the 35-50% retracement zone of the latest swing (approximately $3,350 down to $3,330) is viewed as an attractive “buy-the-dip” area intraday.
On the 1-hour chart, gold has been oscillating upward within a rising channel. After each push higher, it has formed brief consolidations or bull flags that resolved to the upside.
For example, after the strong push to ~3375, price coiled in a classic bull flag pattern, hinting at momentum building for another breakout. This pattern of consolidation after a rally shows healthy bullish behavior – buyers pausing before continuing the move. Higher lows (HL) and higher highs (HH) are clearly present, indicating a steady uptrend structure on the 1H
In fact, gold’s price action has been “taking out liquidity then taking out highs and creating new highs,” leaving no sign of bear control so far. This means each time the price dips and grabs some stop-loss liquidity from weak longs, it quickly reverses and surges to a fresh peak – a hallmark of a strong trend supported by larger players. From an SMC perspective, we can spot where institutional traders may be active. Recently, gold retested a major demand zone in the low $3,300s and rocketed higher. Specifically, price dipped to about $3,297 (just below a prior support), which appears to have been a liquidity grab (fake-out) below the obvious support level
Smart money often drives price briefly below such a level to trigger stop-losses, then buys into that liquidity. Indeed, a strong bullish rejection off $3,297-3,300 occurred, indicating aggressive buying (accumulation) by big players at that historical support
This confirmed a solid demand zone, and bulls defended it vigorously – a clear sign that institutional demand underpins that area. After the fake-out and bounce, gold quickly resumed making higher lows, confirming the uptrend’s resumption. Now, the focus shifts to the overhead supply zone. Gold is trading just below $3,380–3,390, a zone that previously acted as major intraday resistance.
In past attempts, price sharply sold off from this area, suggesting it’s a pocket of supply (sell orders) or profit-taking for institutions. This makes $3,380-$3,390 a key decision point: if bullish momentum is strong enough to drive a clean break through this supply, we could see a swift move higher (as mentioned, targets in the low $3,400s become viable)
However, if gold struggles and prints bearish signals (e.g. aggressive wick rejections or a change in character to lower lows on 15m/1H) near 3380-3390, it may indicate that sellers are defending this zone again, potentially causing a pullback. Traders are watching closely to see if smart money will cap the price here or let it run. It’s worth noting that intraday liquidity has built up around certain levels. Minor equal highs around $3,375-3,377 were taken out earlier (as gold hit a weekly high of ~$3,377) ,and now liquidity might reside just above $3,390 (at buy stops of breakout traders) and below $3,340 (sell stops of longs). The path of least resistance intraday appears upward unless those lower support levels start breaking. As long as gold remains inside this rising structure, the bias is to buy dips rather than sell rallies. Only a clear break below the $3,337–3,340 support (recent range floor) would hint at a short-term trend shift down. Until then, bulls are in charge. Educational Note: Order blocks and supply/demand zones are areas where price saw a sharp move, indicating institutional orders. In gold’s case, an H1 demand block near $3,300 (origin of the recent rally) is such an area – price dipped into it and then launched higher
Conversely, the $3,380-$3,390 area is a supply zone from which price fell previously.
Watching price behavior at these zones (e.g. strong rejection vs. breakthrough) gives clues: a heavy rejection implies continued range or reversal, while a breakthrough suggests a new leg of trend.
Trade Setups
Buy on Dip (Bullish Setup):
If gold retraces into the $3,345–3,355 support zone, consider a long entry near ~$3,350 (a key Fibonacci support & prior breakout level)
A suggested stop-loss is just below $3,335 (to stay under the 61.8% retracement and recent swing low). Target the $3,375 area for partial profits, and $3,385–3,390 if momentum continues. This buy-on-dips approach aligns with the prevailing uptrend – as one analyst noted, “Gold below 3350 is an opportunity to buy on dips”
(Rationale: You’re buying at support in an uptrend, aiming for a retest of the highs.)
Sell Near Resistance (Bearish Setup):
If gold rallies toward the $3,390–3,400 zone but shows rejection (stalling candles or a bearish reversal pattern) at that resistance, one can consider a short entry around ~$3,395. Place a tight stop-loss above $3,405 (just beyond the major resistance). Target a pullback to about $3,370 first, and $3,350 on an extended drop. This trade fades a possible near-term top in case the supply zone holds. For instance, a suggested plan from another analyst was to “sell around 3397–3400” with stops above 3409, looking for a move back to the mid-$3,300s
(Rationale: You’re selling at an identified supply zone, expecting a short-term correction.)
Breakout Scenario:
For traders who prefer momentum plays, watch $3,380 on the upside and $3,340 on the downside. A 1H candle close beyond $3,380 with strong volume would confirm a breakout – you could then target ~$3,405 and above (trail stops as it goes)
Conversely, a drop below $3,340 might signal a bearish intraday reversal, opening downside targets near $3,315 and $3,300
If trading the breakout, ensure confirmation (no fake-outs) – wait for a retest if possible, and then ride the move. (This scenario is only for when price definitively exits the current range.)
Remember: The intraday trend is bullish, so lean toward long setups unless key supports break. Keep it simple – trade the price action you see. Gold can be volatile, so it's wise to use stop losses and not over-leverage. Happy trading! 📈✨
