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Gold trade: Is the Outlook too Pessimistic? A few weeks ago, there was widespread belief in the markets that the U.S. central bank would implement more than 160 basis points of easing in 2024. However, these expectations have substantially moderated since then, leading to a bearish reversal in the gold market. Even today, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic emphasized that he anticipates policymakers will only commence rate cuts in the third quarter of this year. Additionally, the recent report from the Labor Department revealed that initial jobless claims hit their lowest level since September 2022, indicating a tight labor market and diminishing the need for immediate rate cuts. The current week's sell-off has pushed the spot price below both the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages, intensifying the negative sentiment. While technical indicators have weakened in their bearish stance and fall short of suggesting a bottom, they still remain in negative territory. The next level of support lies at $2,009/oz., followed by $1,987/oz. Taking an overly optimistic perspective in the long term, gold might remain positive as long as the last higher low at $1,973/oz. is maintained. The pair recovering beyond $2,040 will help it regain some bullish strength, but with no obvious reason for it to move back to this level, this might be overly optimistic too.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
GOLD IS FALLING DOWN 👇 READ ITGold price (XAU/USD) has executed a short-term recovery move in the midst of a persistent downtrend. Gold price printed a fresh monthly low near the psychological support of $2,000 on Wednesday, then bounced. Yet despite the rebound, the precious metal remains on the backfoot as investors continue to worry about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start its long awaited rate-cut cycle. The hopes of an early rate-cut decision from the Fed are easing as the last leg of inflationary pressures in the United States is turning out significantly more stubborn than previously thought, due to robust consumer spending and steady labor market conditions.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FxJohnson
GOLD 4H : Under sell pressure GOLD New forecast The price perfectly fulfills my last idea and price reached to our targets +360 pip. The price of gold confirmed breaking the 2043 level and stabilized within the descending intraday channel again, reactivating the bearish trend scenario in the intraday term, waiting to test the 2017 level initially, noting that breaking this level will confirm the extension of the downward corrective wave to reach 1993 and 1976 as the next main station. Therefore, we expect to witness further declines during the coming sessions, supported by a move below the moving average of 50, keeping in mind that the 2043 breakthrough will stop the negative scenario. The expect range trading for today it will be between resistance line 2043 and support line 2017 until stabilized . Additionally ,Today News will affect on the market. support line : 2017 , 1993 resistance line : 2043 , 2055 Attention : We don't have any group in telegram be careful about scammer. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Arazmajeed
4
GOLD H1 / SHORT TRADE ACTIVATED / STRATEGY CONFIRMED ✅Hello Traders! In the previous analysis, I expected a retracement from the resistance level and I was looking for a short-trade from the OB. Now we can see a very clear retracement. A good opportunity to execute short trades for scalpers or on small time frames. Congrats to those who executed the trade. Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective. ____________________________________ Follow, like, and comment to see my content: www.tradingview.com
TVC:GOLDShort
by GoodTradeST
Will Gold collapse?We can see how clearly the price reacted to the Fibonacci levels, and now Gold is at an extreme level. I assume that 2023 was the best year for Gold. And in 2024, we can expect a drop to at least 745 level. The next Fibo level is 385 but something tells me that the price will roll towards the low of 2000s - below 254. And the most impossible scenario is when Gold will completely devalue (-27). For several months now, I've been asking myself: what should happen globally in the world for the most stable investment instrument - Gold, to drop like a brick? I don't know. Write your ideas in comments 'what can cause drop of Gold?'. Let's see what 2024 will bring us :)
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by margarita_morozova
2
GOLD's Movement explainedSo what is up guys, I haven't had the opportunity to sit down and produce an analysis on gold over the last few days as I have been extremely busy working with students or other businesses that I run, I will admit my attention has been pulled away from the charts in the last few days but I am back and I am here for the day (I hope lol) So looking at the monthly timeframe I can say that it still definitely is extremely bullish - there isn't anything that can convince me otherwise - See image below of the monthly timeframe As I would mention in the image below I can't yet trust the monthly candle as it has about 20 days before it closes - meaning ANYTHING can happen between now and the next 20 days I am skipping the weekly timeframe in this analysis as I don't think there is any information that I need from that timeframe that I cannot get on the daily - Looking at the daily timeframe we can see that it has had quite a few bearish days and moves in the last week Now looking at the last 3 days or so, we can see that there are some wicks being thrown to the top side and I don't know about you but that doesn't give me confidence in looking for buys - why if I am looking for buys would I want to see data that suggests sells? But it is interesting and I will tell you why - Why would the dealer be inducing sellers in a bull market? Let me tell you why I think this is the case Who is the real target in a bull market? Buyers or sellers? Before you try to answer I want you to think who has more to gain. When you think about who has more to gain, you have to ask - does the dealer want this party to win? does he want this party to gain? Of course not. So in that light it is simple and easy to say that buyers would be the target right? Sellers would be taken out once the market resumes buying But before it can resume buying the dealer needs to get rid of traders who bought - remember he doesn't want traders who are buying to gain anything. So the next question is simple - Where are the buyers buying? Lets look at the chart again and see if anything makes sense When we look at the 4 hour time frame I am just trying to identify areas in which I feel the average retail trader may have felt safe to place a buy and I arrive at these zones circled in green, but why? These are low points that would have also made higher lows - which I am aware traders love using that B.S - Higher high and higher low to dictate whether or not they should buy. If you realize I am using what I know other traders do in my analysis but I am not using that myself to place a trade - I said this before, I like Context, I want to understand what other people may be seeing so I can build out the picture as close to what it really is, you cannot do that when you look at the market one dimensionally. But wait there is more Is it at all possible that this bull trend is also now an additional induction to get traders to buy? I think so yes, it makes sense for the dealer to induce buyers to make them feel safe and add more buys Buyers would feel more inclined to open bigger positions because the gold market is bullish overall so buys make sense. Interestingly enough buys are the right play I think but it isn't WHAT it is HOW. This is why I think the seller induction of the higher timeframe right now make sense - get sellers to step in and push price lower and stop out the buyers induced to buy in these areas (green) On the m15 timeframe I believe that sellers would have already been destroyed so the dealer is free to use that seller liquidity to push price lower as seen in the image below (turquoise) Look at the previous tap on the trendline or the most recent low, I wouldn't be surprised if price stops there and bounces back up temporarily to further induce buyers before dropping lower to take out all buyers completely I have an alert set at the low Let me know what you think about this thought process Don't boost if you didn't take the time to read and try to understand this entire analysis OR Boost if you did take the time to read and try to understand this entire analysis I think trying to take a trade before I know what price is likely to do next is irresponsible of me. So I will be waiting Have a great day folks
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Brandon_evo4
3
Gold melting a little?In the final days in December gold's strength has started to weaken. Wednesday December 27th 2023 is the last high we saw gold peaking around 2088.41. A massive and consistent downtrend has come right after that with a clear formulated structure with lower-low's and lower-high's. Monday January 08th 2024 is when we saw a pull-back and momentum revitalize it's self with going stabilizing itself seeing more stride with it's price trying to gain value back to the upside. Yesterday Tuesday January 9th 2024 during New York session it's seemly lost it's momentum but we can see that Monday's New York session has made clean traffic with price to the upside which in turn will be great for pin pointing where gold will go. *** KEY ANALYSIS *** I'm looking for GOLD to break and CLOSE under 2023.83 on a 30M time frame. This will confirm more of a downtrend considering the clean traffic and move up from Monday New York session that had alot of volume -- Close under my zone at 2023.83 Target 120 pts on candle break and close. Stops: anywhere above opposite side of the zone at 2027.43
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by Trellz_
1
Gold: $2,025 - After US Inflation, What's Next?Gold: $2,025 - After US Inflation, What's Next? Gold's short term prospects might be dependent on upcoming US inflation data for December. XAU/USD currently trades at $2,025, stepping back from an intraday high of $2,042. On Thursday, the US will release the Consumer Price Index for December. The market is expecting a 0.3% monthly increase in Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, in line with November. If the monthly core CPI exceeds 0.5%, it could push up US yields and weigh on XAU/USD. Alternatively, a softer-than-expected CPI reading may keep expectations for a Federal Reserve policy shift alive and perhaps help keep gold above $2,020. Technically, the 4-hour chart suggests a downside risk for gold, trading below its 20 Simple Moving Average at around $2,036. Conversely, the initial resistance for XAU/USD stands at $2050, where the 50- and 100-day SMAs are converging. The daily high on January 5 at $2063.98 might be the next level to keep an eye on to the upside.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
Gold's DOWN cycle continues !! 1/9/2024⭐️ Smart investment, Strong finance ⭐️ GOLDEN INFORMATION: The price of gold (XAU/USD) is rebounding slightly below the mid-$2,000s in the early Asian session on Tuesday. There is a chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will prolong its cautious approach, which could lead to some selling pressure on gold in the short term. However, gold traders will primarily look to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday for new inspiration. Currently, the gold price is trading around $2,030, up 0.14% for the day. ⭐️ Personal comments NOVA: The downtrend is even more obvious, with the actions of some funds taking profits on Gold above the $2000 price range. Gold continues to suffer negative impacts in early 2024 ⭐️ SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2000 - $2002 SL $1992 TP1: $2010 TP2: $2020 TP3: $2030 🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2048 - $2050 SL $2055 TP1: $2040 TP2: $2025 TP3: $2017 ⭐️ Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order. ⭐️ NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account - The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Nova-Scalper
3